These missions require medium-lift rockets, or smaller rockets capable of a high-rate launch cadence to match the capability of a larger launch vehicle. In June, the Space Force selected SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’s space company, to compete for Lane 1 launch task orders.
Military officials will add more companies to the pool of available Lane 1 launch providers as they mature their rockets. These companies may include Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, Relativity Space, Stoke Space, and others.
While Blue Origin is on the Space Force’s list of available launch providers, the company’s New Glenn rocket was not eligible for the contracts announced Friday. That’s because military officials require a rocket to complete at least one successful orbital launch to become qualified for a Lane 1 task order. New Glenn’s first test flight is scheduled some time later this year.
This rule left SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and ULA’s Vulcan rockets as the only launch vehicles eligible for the task orders, setting up a head-to-head competition between the rival rocket companies. SpaceX prevailed, winning all nine Lane 1 missions up for competition this year.
Lane 2 of the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch program covers more challenging military missions, typically larger, more expensive payloads destined for higher orbits. The Space Force is expected to soon select launch providers for Lane 2 missions. These launches will require the Space Force to certify the rockets, whereas the military is comfortable accepting a little more risk for the Lane 1 missions.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are currently certified for national security launches, and the Space Force is in the process of certifying ULA’s Vulcan launcher after two successful test flights. The Space Force and Blue Origin also have a certification plan for the New Glenn rocket, but it must first complete multiple successful test flights.
Updated October 19 with additional information about the launch task orders.
“When it’s close to the Earth, it’s close enough to the atmosphere to turn where it is,” she said. “Which means our adversaries don’t know—and that happens on the far side of the Earth from our adversaries—where it’s going to come up next. And we know that that drives them nuts. And I’m really glad about that.”
Breaking the silence
The Pentagon rarely releases an update on the X-37B spaceplane in the middle of a mission. During previous flights, military officials typically provided some basic information about the mission before its launch, then went silent until the X-37B returned for landing. The military keeps specifics about the spaceplane’s activities in orbit a secret.
This made the Space Force’s announcement Thursday somewhat of a surprise. When the seventh flight of the X-37B launched, there were indications that the spacecraft would soar into a much higher orbit than it did on any of its six prior missions.
In February, a sleuthing satellite tracking hobbyist spotted the X-37B in orbit by observing sunlight reflected off of the spacecraft as it flew thousands of miles above Earth. Follow-up detections confirmed the discovery, allowing amateur observers to estimate that the X-37B was flying in a highly elliptical orbit ranging between roughly 300 and 38,600 miles in altitude (186-by-23,985 miles). The orbit was inclined 59.1 degrees to the equator.
On its previous missions, the X-37B was confined to low-Earth orbit a few hundred miles above the planet. When it became apparent that the latest mission was cruising at a significantly higher altitude, analysts and space enthusiasts speculated on what the secret spaceplane was doing and how it would come back to Earth. A direct reentry into the atmosphere from the spaceplane’s elliptical orbit would expose the craft’s heat shield to hotter temperatures than any of its previous returns.
Now, we have an answer to the latter question.
As for what it’s doing up there, the Space Force said the spaceplane on this mission has “conducted radiation effect experiments and has been testing space domain awareness technologies in a highly elliptical orbit.” The orbit brings the X-37B through the Van Allen radiation belts and crosses several orbital regimes populated by US and foreign communications, navigation, and surveillance satellites.
Military officials have said previous X-37B flights have tested a Hall-effect ion thruster and tested other experimental space technologies without elaborating on their details. X-37Bs have also secretly deployed small military satellites in orbit.
Enlarge/ Liftoff of ULA’s Atlas V rocket on the US Space Force’s USSF-51 mission.
United Launch Alliance delivered a classified US military payload to orbit Tuesday for the last time with an Atlas V rocket, ending the Pentagon’s use of Russian rocket engines as national security missions transition to all-American launchers.
The Atlas V rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida at 6: 45 am EDT (10: 45 UTC) Tuesday, propelled by a Russian-made RD-180 engine and five strap-on solid-fueled boosters in its most powerful configuration. This was the 101st launch of an Atlas V rocket since its debut in 2002, and the 58th and final Atlas V mission with a US national security payload since 2007.
The US Space Force’s Space Systems Command confirmed a successful conclusion to the mission, code-named USSF-51, on Tuesday afternoon. The rocket’s Centaur upper stage released the top secret USSF-51 payload about seven hours after liftoff, likely in a high-altitude geostationary orbit over the equator. The military did not publicize the exact specifications of the rocket’s target orbit.
“What a fantastic launch and a fitting conclusion for our last national security space Atlas V (launch),” said Walt Lauderdale, USSF-51 mission director at Space Systems Command, in a post-launch press release. “When we look back at how well Atlas V met our needs since our first launch in 2007, it illustrates the hard work and dedication from our nation’s industrial base. Together, we made it happen, and because of teams like this, we have the most successful and thriving launch industry in the world, bar none.”
RD-180’s long goodbye
The launch Tuesday morning was the end of an era born in the 1990s when US government policy allowed Lockheed Martin, the original developer of the Atlas V, to use Russian rocket engines during its first stage. There was a widespread sentiment in the first decade after the fall of the Soviet Union that the United States and other Western nations should partner with Russia to keep the country’s aerospace workers employed and prevent “rogue states” like Iran or North Korea from hiring them.
At the time, the Pentagon was procuring new rockets to replace legacy versions of the Atlas, Delta, and Titan rocket families, which had been in service since the late 1950s or early 1960s.
Enlarge/ A cluster of solid rocket boosters surround the RD-180 main engine as the Atlas V launcher climbs away from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station to begin the USSF-51 mission.
Ultimately, the Air Force chose Lockheed Martin’s Atlas V and Boeing’s Delta IV rocket for development in 1998. The Atlas V, with its Russian main engine, was somewhat less expensive than the Delta IV and the more successful of the two designs. After Tuesday’s launch, 15 more Atlas V rockets are booked to fly payloads for commercial customers and NASA, mainly for Amazon’s Kuiper network and Boeing’s Starliner crew spacecraft. The 45th and final Delta IV launch occurred in April.
Boeing and Lockheed Martin merged their rocket divisions in 2006 to form a 50-50 joint venture named United Launch Alliance, which became the sole contractor certified to carry large US military satellites to orbit until SpaceX started launching national security missions in 2018.
SpaceX filed a lawsuit in 2014 to protest the Air Force’s decision to award ULA a multibillion-dollar sole-source contract for 36 Atlas V and Delta IV rocket booster cores. The litigation started soon after Russia’s military occupation and annexation of Crimea, which prompted US government sanctions on prominent Russian government officials, including Dmitry Rogozin, then Russia’s deputy prime minister and later the head of Russia’s space agency.
Rogozin, known for his bellicose but usually toothless rhetoric, threatened to halt exports of RD-180 engines for US military missions on the Atlas V. That didn’t happen until Russia finally stopped engine exports to the United States in 2022, following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At that point, ULA already had all the engines it needed to fly out all of its remaining Atlas V rockets. This export ban had a larger effect on Northrop Grumman’s Antares rocket, which also used Russian engines, forcing the development of a brand new first stage booster with US engines.
The SpaceX lawsuit, Russia’s initial military incursions into Ukraine in 2014, and the resulting sanctions marked the beginning of the end for the Atlas V rocket and ULA’s use of the Russian RD-180 engine. The dual-nozzle RD-180, made by a Russian company named NPO Energomash, consumes kerosene and liquid oxygen propellants and generates 860,000 pounds of thrust at full throttle.
A strategy document released by the Pentagon this week lays out where the US military can most effectively rely on the commercial space industry and what missions should remain in government hands.
“This marks a new effort to harness the remarkable innovation of the commercial space sector to enhance our resilience and strengthen integrated deterrence as a department,” said John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy.
The Space Force already buys a lot from the commercial space industry. The military doesn’t build or own satellite launch vehicles—those come from commercial companies. While the Space Force operates government-owned reconnaissance and surveillance satellites, it also buys supplementary data and imagery from the commercial industry.
“To protect our men and women in uniform and to ensure the space services they rely on will be available when needed, the department has a responsibility to leverage all tools available, and those tools include commercial solutions,” Plumb said Tuesday. “From launch to space domain awareness to satellite communications and more, the commercial sector’s ability to innovate, to scale production and to rapidly refresh their technology is opening the door to all kinds of possibilities.”
The Pentagon defines the commercial space sector as companies that develop capabilities for sale on the commercial market, where the military is one of many customers. This is separate from the Pentagon’s procurement of government-owned airplanes and satellites from the defense industry.
Ripe for exploitation
Build or buy is an age-old question facing everyone from homeowners to billion-dollar enterprises. When it comes to space, the Pentagon is buying more than ever. The military’s new strategy document outlines 13 mission areas for national security space, and while the commercial space industry is rapidly growing, the Pentagon predominately buys commercial services in only one of those mission areas.
“Out of those 13, the only that’s clearly primarily commercial now is SAML.. which is Space Access, Mobility and Logistics, and space access is launch,” Plumb said. “So SpaceX, Firefly, Rocket Lab, all these different companies doing commercial launch, that’s where the commercial sector clearly can provide services.”
Enlarge/ A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off February 14 with satellites for the US military’s Missile Defense Agency. Another Falcon 9 awaits launch in the foreground.
Currently, the military classifies six mission areas as a hybrid of government and commercial capabilities:
Cyberspace operations
Satellite communications
Spacecraft operations,
Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
Space domain awareness (tracking of space objects)
Environmental monitoring.
In the remaining six mission areas, “a preponderance of functions must be performed by the government, while a select few could be performed by the commercial sector,” officials wrote in the commercial space strategy. In these areas, there is not yet a viable commercial market outside of the government, or commercial capabilities don’t match the government’s needs. These areas include:
Command and control (including nuclear command, control, and communications)
Electromagnetic warfare
Nuclear detonation detection
Missile warning
Position, navigation, and timing (GPS).
A major tenet of the commercial space strategy is for the military to support the development of new commercial space capabilities. This could involve supporting technology demonstrations and funding scientific research. Over time, new technology and new markets could bring more mission areas into the hybrid or commercial lists.
“I think what this strategy hopes to do is say, yes, continue working on bringing commercial entities in,” Plumb said. “This is actually a thing we want you to do, not just a thing you should be experimenting with.”
Enlarge/ A delegation of French military officers visited the Combined Space Operations Center in 2022 at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.
Late last year, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks signed a memo to overhaul a decades-old policy on how the Pentagon keeps sensitive military space programs secret. However, don’t expect defense officials to openly discuss everything they’re doing to counter China and Russia in orbit.
John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy, revealed the policy change in a roundtable with reporters on January 17. For many years, across multiple administrations, Pentagon officials have lamented their inability to share information with other countries and commercial partners. Inherently, they argued, this stranglehold on information limits the military’s capacity to connect with allies, deter adversaries, and respond to threats in space.
In his statement last week, Plumb said this new policy “removes legacy classification barriers that have inhibited our ability to collaborate across the US government and also with allies on issues related to space.”
But Plumb was careful to point out that the memo from Hicks calls for “declassification, not unclassification” of military space programs. “So think of it as reducing classification.” Effectively, this means the Pentagon can make sensitive information available to people with lower security clearances. More eyes on a problem usually mean better solutions.
New policy for a new century
Some of the Pentagon’s most secret space technologies are part of Special Access Programs (SAPs), where information is highly compartmentalized, and only a few officials know all facets of the program. With SAPs, it’s difficult or impossible to share information with allies and partners, and sometimes officials run into roadblocks even discussing the programs with different parts of the Defense Department.
“Overall, the department does overclassify,” Hicks told reporters in November.
Generally, it’s easier to assign a classification level to a document or program than it is to change the classification level. “The originator of a document, usually a foreign policy or national security staff member, decides if it needs to be classified,” wrote Bruce Riedel, a 30-year veteran of the CIA and a former advisor to four presidents. “In almost all cases this is a simple decision. Has its predecessors been classified? If so, classify.”
The government has periodic reviews to determine whether something still needs to be classified, but most of the time, secret documents take decades to be reviewed. If they are released at all, they generally have value only as part of the historical record.
The declassification memo signed by Hicks is, itself, classified, Plumb said. Hicks signed it at the end of last year.
“What the classification memo does generally is it … really completely rewrites a legacy document that had its roots 20 years ago,” Plumb said. “And it’s just no longer applicable to the current environment that involves national security space.”
The Pentagon has identified China as the paramount national security threat to the United States. Much of what the Pentagon is doing in space is geared toward maintaining the US military’s competitive advantage against China or responding to China in cases where Chinese capabilities may threaten US assets in orbit.
This overarching focus on China touches on all military space programs and the NRO’s fleet of spy satellites. The military is launching new constellations of satellites designed to detect and track hypersonic missiles, demonstrating their ability to quickly get a satellite into orbit, and is interested in using commercial space capabilities from US industry, ranging from in-space refueling to broadband communications.
“Our network of allies and partners is an asymmetric advantage and a force multiplier that neither China nor Russia could ever hope to match,” Plumb said.
Officials have said the threat environment requires the military to be more agile. It’s more vital to collaborate with allies and commercial partners.
A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket is seen outside the company’s hangar at Kennedy Space Center, Florida.
SpaceX
SpaceX and the US Space Force thought they were ready to launch the military’s mysterious X-37B spaceplane this week, but ground teams in Florida need to roll the Falcon Heavy rocket back into its hangar for servicing.
This is expected to push back the launch until at least late December, perhaps longer. SpaceX and Space Force officials have not divulged details about the problems causing the delay.
SpaceX called off a launch attempt Monday night at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida to resolve a problem with a ground system. A senior Space Force official told Ars on Wednesday that additional issues will cause an additional delay in the launch.
“We’re working through a couple of technical glitches with our SpaceX team that just are going to take a little bit more time to work through,” said Col. James Horne, deputy director of the Space Force’s Assured Access to Space directorate. “We haven’t nailed down a specific launch date yet, but we’re going to have to roll back into the HIF (Horizontal Integration Facility) and work through some things on the rocket.”
Horne, a senior leader on the Space Force team overseeing military launches like this one, said the ground equipment problem that prevented liftoff Monday night could be fixed as soon as Wednesday. But it will take longer to resolve other issues he declined to specify. “We found some things that we need to run some analysis on, so that’s what’s driving the delay,” he said.
SpaceX was similarly vague in its explanation for the delay. In a post on the social media platform X, SpaceX said the company was standing down from the launch this week to “perform additional system checkouts.”
There’s a chance the Falcon Heavy might be back on the launch pad by the end of December or early next year. A SpaceX recovery vessel that was on station for the Falcon Heavy launch in the Atlantic Ocean is returning to shore, suggesting the launch won’t happen anytime soon.
“We’ve got to look at the schedule and balance that with all the other challenges,” Horne said. “But I hope we can get it off before the end of the year.”
Lunar launch date in jeopardy
When it’s ready to fly, the Falcon Heavy launch with the military’s X-37B spaceplane will likely get high priority on SpaceX’s launch schedule. The military’s launch ranges, like the one at Cape Canaveral, are primarily there to serve national security requirements, even though they get a lot more use from commercial space missions.
Depending on how long it’s delayed, this military launch could affect several SpaceX missions currently scheduled to fly in January. Most notably, a Falcon 9 rocket is slated to lift off from the same launch pad in January with the first commercial Moon lander from Intuitive Machines, a Houston-based company contracted to deliver scientific payloads to the lunar surface for NASA.
This robotic mission is one of the first two US-built spacecraft to attempt a Moon landing since the last Apollo landing in 1972. The Intuitive Machines mission, named IM-1, is scheduled to launch during a narrow window from January 12–16.
A few days earlier, as soon as January 8, another commercial lunar lander from Astrobotic is scheduled for liftoff from Cape Canaveral on the first test flight of United Launch Alliance’s new Vulcan rocket. The Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines missions can only launch a few days each month due to limitations imposed by orbital mechanics and lighting conditions at their landing sites. Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander was previously supposed to launch on December 24, but ULA pushed back the launch to perform more testing on the Vulcan rocket.
The landers from Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines are both at Cape Canaveral, waiting for their turn in the Florida spaceport’s busy launch manifest.
The IM-1 mission has to depart Earth from Launch Complex 39A, the same site previously used by the Saturn V rocket and space shuttle. SpaceX has outfitted the pad to top off the Intuitive Machines lander with cryogenic propellant just before launch, a capability unavailable at SpaceX’s other launch pad in Florida. Likewise, LC-39A is the only launch pad capable of supporting Falcon Heavy missions.
It usually takes a couple of weeks to reconfigure LC-39A between Falcon Heavy and Falcon 9 launches. The Falcon Heavy is significantly more powerful, with three Falcon 9 first-stage boosters connected together to haul more massive payloads into orbit.
A private astronaut mission managed by Axiom Space is also in the mix, with a launch date set for January 9. This mission, known as Ax-3, will carry four commercial astronauts aboard a Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft on a roughly two-week flight to the International Space Station. Sarah Walker, director of Dragon mission management at SpaceX, said the company hasn’t decided which pad Ax-3 will launch from.
All of SpaceX’s crew missions to date have lifted off from LC-39A, but the company recently constructed a crew access tower and arm to enable astronaut flights to depart from nearby Space Launch Complex 40. This gives SpaceX some flexibility to alleviate launch bottlenecks at LC-39A, which is required for some of the company’s most important missions.
LC-39A will remain the primary launch pad for SpaceX’s crew missions, Walker said Wednesday, but she added: “Having the second pad available enables us to be ultra-responsive to customer needs and growing demand by moving a Dragon over to SLC-40 when the need arises.”
It’s a good problem to have so many interesting payloads vying for a launch slot with SpaceX, but the tyranny of physics and infrastructure constraints could mean one of these missions might have to wait a little longer for a ride to space.
