Science

beryl-is-just-the-latest-disaster-to-strike-the-energy-capital-of-the-world

Beryl is just the latest disaster to strike the energy capital of the world

houston, hurricane beryl, hurricanes, Science, Space / /

Don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone —

It’s pretty weird to use something I’ve written about in the abstract for so long.

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Why yes, that Starlink dish is precariously perched to get around tree obstructions.

Enlarge / Why yes, that Starlink dish is precariously perched to get around tree obstructions.

Eric Berger

I’ll readily grant you that Houston might not be the most idyllic spot in the world. The summer heat is borderline unbearable. The humidity is super sticky. We don’t have mountains or pristine beaches—we have concrete.

But we also have a pretty amazing melting pot of culture, wonderful cuisine, lots of jobs, and upward mobility. Most of the year, I love living here. Houston is totally the opposite of, “It’s a nice place to visit, but you wouldn’t want to live there.” Houston is not a particularly nice place to visit, but you might just want to live here.

Except for the hurricanes.

Houston is the largest city in the United States to be highly vulnerable to hurricanes. At a latitude of 29.7 degrees, the city is solidly in the subtropics, and much of it is built within 25 to 50 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. Every summer, with increasing dread, we watch tropical systems develop over the Atlantic Ocean and then move into the Gulf.

For some meteorologists and armchair forecasters, tracking hurricanes is fulfilling work and a passionate hobby. For those of us who live near the water along the upper Texas coast, following the movements of these storms is gut-wrenching stuff. A few days before a potential landfall, I’ll find myself jolting awake in the middle of the night by the realization that new model data must be available. When you see a storm turning toward you, or intensifying, it’s psychologically difficult to process.

Beryl the Bad

It felt like we were watching Beryl forever. It formed into a tropical depression on June 28, became a hurricane the next day, and by June 30, it was a major hurricane storming into the Caribbean Sea. Beryl set all kinds of records for a hurricane in late June and early July. Put simply, we have never seen an Atlantic storm intensify so rapidly, or so much, this early in the hurricane season. Beryl behaved as if it were the peak of the Atlantic season, in September, rather than the beginning of July—normally a pretty sleepy time for Atlantic hurricane activity. I wrote about this for Ars Technica a week ago.

At the time, it looked as though the greater Houston area would be completely spared by Beryl, as the most reliable modeling data took the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico before a final landfall in northern Mexico. But over time, the forecast began to change, with the track moving steadily up the Texas coast.

I was at a dinner to celebrate the birthday of my cousin’s wife last Friday when I snuck a peek at my phone. It was about 7 pm local time. We were at a Mexican restaurant in Galveston, and I knew the latest operational run of the European model was about to come out. This was a mistake, as the model indicated a landfall about 80 miles south of Houston, which would bring the core of the storm’s strongest winds over Houston.

I had to fake joviality for the rest of the night, while feeling sick to my stomach.

Barreling inland

The truth is, Beryl could have been much worse. After weakening due to interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, Beryl moved into the Gulf of Mexico just about when I was having that celebratory dinner on Friday evening. At that point, it was a strong tropical storm with 60 mph sustained winds. It had nearly two and a half days over open water to re-organize, and that seemed likely. Beryl had Saturday to shrug off dry air and was expected to intensify significantly on Sunday. It was due to make landfall on Monday morning.

The track for Beryl continued to look grim over the weekend—although its landfall would occur well south of Houston, Beryl’s track inland would bring its center and core of strongest winds over the most densely populated part of the city. However, we took some solace from a lack of serious intensification on Saturday and Sunday. Even at 10 pm local time on Sunday, less than six hours before Beryl’s landfall near Matagorda, it was still not a hurricane.

However, in those final hours Beryl did finally start to get organized in a serious way. We have seen this before as hurricanes start to run up on the Texas coast, where frictional effects from its outer bands aid intensification. In the last six hours Beryl intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, with 80-mph sustained winds. The eyewall of the storm closed, and Beryl was poised for rapid intensification. Then it ran aground.

Normally, as a hurricane traverses land it starts to weaken fairly quickly. But Beryl didn’t. Instead, the storm maintained much of its strength and bulldozed right into the heart of Houston with near hurricane-force sustained winds and higher gusts. I suspect what happened is that Beryl, beginning to deepen, had a ton of momentum at landfall, and it took time for interaction with land to reverse that momentum and begin slowing down its winds.

First the lights went out. Then the Internet soon followed. Except for storm chasers, hurricanes are miserable experiences. There is the torrential rainfall and rising water. But most ominous of all, at least for me, are the howling winds. When stronger gusts come through, even sturdily built houses shake. Trees whip around violently. It is such an uncontrolled, violent fury that one must endure. Losing a connection to the outside world magnifies one’s sense of helplessness.

In the end, Beryl knocked out power to about 2.5 million customers across the Houston region, including yours truly. Because broadband Internet service providers generally rely on these electricity services to deliver Internet, many customers lost connectivity. Even cell phone towers, reduced to batteries or small generators, were often only capable of delivering text and voice services.

Beryl is just the latest disaster to strike the energy capital of the world Read More »

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Why every quantum computer will need a powerful classical computer

computing, Error correction, quantum computing, qubits, Science, startups / /
Image of a set of spheres with arrows within them, with all the arrows pointing in the same direction.

Enlarge / A single logical qubit is built from a large collection of hardware qubits.

One of the more striking things about quantum computing is that the field, despite not having proven itself especially useful, has already spawned a collection of startups that are focused on building something other than qubits. It might be easy to dismiss this as opportunism—trying to cash in on the hype surrounding quantum computing. But it can be useful to look at the things these startups are targeting, because they can be an indication of hard problems in quantum computing that haven’t yet been solved by any one of the big companies involved in that space—companies like Amazon, Google, IBM, or Intel.

In the case of a UK-based company called Riverlane, the unsolved piece that is being addressed is the huge amount of classical computations that are going to be necessary to make the quantum hardware work. Specifically, it’s targeting the huge amount of data processing that will be needed for a key part of quantum error correction: recognizing when an error has occurred.

Error detection vs. the data

All qubits are fragile, tending to lose their state during operations, or simply over time. No matter what the technology—cold atoms, superconducting transmons, whatever—these error rates put a hard limit on the amount of computation that can be done before an error is inevitable. That rules out doing almost every useful computation operating directly on existing hardware qubits.

The generally accepted solution to this is to work with what are called logical qubits. These involve linking multiple hardware qubits together and spreading the quantum information among them. Additional hardware qubits are linked in so that they can be measured to monitor errors affecting the data, allowing them to be corrected. It can take dozens of hardware qubits to make a single logical qubit, meaning even the largest existing systems can only support about 50 robust logical qubits.

Riverlane’s founder and CEO, Steve Brierley, told Ars that error correction doesn’t only stress the qubit hardware; it stresses the classical portion of the system as well. Each of the measurements of the qubits used for monitoring the system needs to be processed to detect and interpret any errors. We’ll need roughly 100 logical qubits to do some of the simplest interesting calculations, meaning monitoring thousands of hardware qubits. Doing more sophisticated calculations may mean thousands of logical qubits.

That error-correction data (termed syndrome data in the field) needs to be read between each operation, which makes for a lot of data. “At scale, we’re talking a hundred terabytes per second,” said Brierley. “At a million physical qubits, we’ll be processing about a hundred terabytes per second, which is Netflix global streaming.”

It also has to be processed in real time, otherwise computations will get held up waiting for error correction to happen. To avoid that, errors must be detected in real time. For transmon-based qubits, syndrome data is generated roughly every microsecond, so real time means completing the processing of the data—possibly Terabytes of it—with a frequency of around a Megahertz. And Riverlane was founded to provide hardware that’s capable of handling it.

Handling the data

The system the company has developed is described in a paper that it has posted on the arXiv. It’s designed to handle syndrome data after other hardware has already converted the analog signals into digital form. This allows Riverlane’s hardware to sit outside any low-temperature hardware that’s needed for some forms of physical qubits.

That data is run through an algorithm the paper terms a “Collision Clustering decoder,” which handles the error detection. To demonstrate its effectiveness, they implement it based on a typical Field Programmable Gate Array from Xilinx, where it occupies only about 5 percent of the chip but can handle a logical qubit built from nearly 900 hardware qubits (simulated, in this case).

The company also demonstrated a custom chip that handled an even larger logical qubit, while only occupying a tiny fraction of a square millimeter and consuming just 8 milliwatts of power.

Both of these versions are highly specialized; they simply feed the error information for other parts of the system to act on. So, it is a highly focused solution. But it’s also quite flexible in that it works with various error-correction codes. Critically, it also integrates with systems designed to control a qubit based on very different physics, including cold atoms, trapped ions, and transmons.

“I think early on it was a bit of a puzzle,” Brierley said. “You’ve got all these different types of physics; how are we going to do this?” It turned out not to be a major challenge. “One of our engineers was in Oxford working with the superconducting qubits, and in the afternoon he was working with the iron trap qubits. He came back to Cambridge and he was all excited. He was like, ‘They’re using the same control electronics.'” It turns out that, regardless of the physics involved in controlling the qubits, everybody had borrowed the same hardware from a different field (Brierley said it was a Xilinx radiofrequency system-on-a-chip built for 5G base stationed prototyping.) That makes it relatively easy to integrate Riverlane’s custom hardware with a variety of systems.

Why every quantum computer will need a powerful classical computer Read More »

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New weight-loss and diabetes drugs linked to lower risk of 10 cancers

cancer, GLP-1, obesity-related cancer, Ozempic, Science, Type 2 diabetes, wegovy, weight loss, weight loss drugs / /

Secondary benefits —

For diabetes patients, GLP-1 drugs linked to lower cancer risks compared to insulin.

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Ozempic is a GLP-1 drug for adults with type 2 diabetes.

Enlarge / Ozempic is a GLP-1 drug for adults with type 2 diabetes.

For patients with Type 2 diabetes, taking one of the new GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic, is associated with lower risks of developing 10 out of 13 obesity-associated cancers as compared with taking insulin, according to a recent study published in JAMA Network Open.

The study was retrospective, capturing data from over 1.6 million patients with Type 2 diabetes but no history of obesity-associated cancers prior to the study period. Using electronic health records, researchers had follow-up data for up to 15 years after the patients started taking either a GLP-1 drug, insulin, or metformin between 2008 and 2015.

This type of study can’t prove that the GLP-1 drugs caused the lower associated risks, but the results fit with some earlier findings. That includes results from one trial that found a 32 percent overall lower risk of obesity-associated cancers following bariatric surgery for weight loss.

In the new study, led by researchers at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, some of the GLP-1-associated risk reductions were quite substantial. Compared with patients taking insulin, patients taking a GLP-1 drug had a 65 percent lower associated risk of gall bladder cancer, a 63 percent lower associated risk of meningioma (a type of brain tumor), a 59 percent lower associated risk for pancreatic cancer, and a 53 percent lower associated risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (liver cancer). The researchers also found lower associated risks for esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, kidney cancer, ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer, and multiple myeloma.

Compared with insulin, the researchers saw no lowered associated risk for thyroid and breast cancers. There was a lower risk of stomach cancer calculated, but the finding was not statistically significant.

Gaps and goals

The GLP-1 drugs did not show such promising results against metformin in the study. Compared with patients taking metformin, patients on GLP-1 drugs saw lower associated risks of colorectal cancer, gall bladder cancer, and meningioma, but those calculations were not statistically significant. The results also unexpectedly indicated a higher risk of kidney cancer for those taking GLP-1 drugs, but the cause of that potentially higher risk (which was not seen in the comparison with insulins) is unclear. The researchers called for more research to investigate that possible association.

Overall, the researchers call for far more studies to try to confirm a link between GLP-1 drugs and lower cancer risks, as well as studies to try to understand the mechanisms behind those potential risk reductions. It’s unclear if the lower risks may be driven simply by weight loss, or if insulin resistance, blood sugar levels, or some other mechanisms are at play.

The current study had several limitations given its retrospective, records-based design. Perhaps the biggest one is that the data didn’t allow the researchers to track individual patients’ weights throughout the study period. As such, researchers couldn’t examine associated cancer risk reductions with actual weight loss. It’s one more aspect that warrants further research.

Still, the study provides another promising result for the blockbuster, albeit pricy, drugs. The researchers suggest extending their work to assess whether GLP-1 drugs could be used to improve outcomes in patients with Type 2 diabetes or obesity who are already diagnosed with cancer, in addition to understanding if the drugs can help prevent the cancer.

New weight-loss and diabetes drugs linked to lower risk of 10 cancers Read More »

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Alaska’s top-heavy glaciers are approaching an irreversible tipping point

Alaska, glacial melt, glaciers, ice melt, Science, syndication / /

meltdown —

As the plateau of the icefield thins, ice and snow reserves at higher altitudes are lost.

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Taku Glacier is one of many that begin in the Juneau Icefield.

Enlarge / Taku Glacier is one of many that begin in the Juneau Icefield.

The melting of one of North America’s largest ice fields has accelerated and could soon reach an irreversible tipping point. That’s the conclusion of new research colleagues and I have published on the Juneau Icefield, which straddles the Alaska-Canada border near the Alaskan capital of Juneau.

In the summer of 2022, I skied across the flat, smooth, and white plateau of the icefield, accompanied by other researchers, sliding in the tracks of the person in front of me under a hot sun. From that plateau, around 40 huge, interconnected glaciers descend towards the sea, with hundreds of smaller glaciers on the mountain peaks all around.

Our work, now published in Nature Communications, has shown that Juneau is an example of a climate “feedback” in action: as temperatures are rising, less and less snow is remaining through the summer (technically: the “end-of-summer snowline” is rising). This in turn leads to ice being exposed to sunshine and higher temperatures, which means more melt, less snow, and so on.

Like many Alaskan glaciers, Juneau’s are top-heavy, with lots of ice and snow at high altitudes above the end-of-summer snowline. This previously sustained the glacier tongues lower down. But when the end-of-summer snowline does creep up to the top plateau, then suddenly a large amount of a top-heavy glacier will be newly exposed to melting.

That’s what’s happening now, each summer, and the glaciers are melting much faster than before, causing the icefield to get thinner and thinner and the plateau to get lower and lower. Once a threshold is passed, these feedbacks can accelerate melt and drive a self-perpetuating loss of snow and ice which would continue even if the world were to stop warming.

Ice is melting faster than ever

Using satellites, photos and old piles of rocks, we were able to measure the ice loss across Juneau Icefield from the end of the last “Little Ice Age” (about 250 years ago) to the present day. We saw that the glaciers began shrinking after that cold period ended in about 1770. This ice loss remained constant until about 1979, when it accelerated. It accelerated again in 2010, doubling the previous rate. Glaciers there shrank five times faster between 2015 and 2019 than from 1979 to 1990.

Our data shows that as the snow decreases and the summer melt season lengthens, the icefield is darkening. Fresh, white snow is very reflective, and much of that strong solar energy that we experienced in the summer of 2022 is reflected back into space. But the end of summer snowline is rising and is now often occurring right on the plateau of the Juneau Icefield, which means that older snow and glacier ice is being exposed to the sun. These slightly darker surfaces absorb more energy, increasing snow and ice melt.

As the plateau of the icefield thins, ice and snow reserves at higher altitudes are lost, and the surface of the plateau lowers. This will make it increasingly hard for the icefield to ever stabilise or even recover. That’s because warmer air at low elevations drives further melt, leading to an irreversible tipping point.

Longer-term data like these are critical to understand how glaciers behave, and the processes and tipping points that exist within individual glaciers. These complex processes make it difficult to predict how a glacier will behave in future.

The world’s hardest jigsaw

We used satellite records to reconstruct how big the glacier was and how it behaved, but this really limits us to the past 50 years. To go back further, we need different methods. To go back 250 years, we mapped the ridges of moraines, which are large piles of debris deposited at the glacier snout, and places where glaciers have scoured and polished the bedrock.

To check and build on our mapping, we spent two weeks on the icefield itself and two weeks in the rainforest below. We camped among the moraine ridges, suspending our food high in the air to keep it safe from bears, shouting to warn off the moose and bears as we bushwhacked through the rainforest, and battling mosquitoes thirsty for our blood.

We used aerial photographs to reconstruct the icefield in the 1940s and 1970s, in the era before readily available satellite imagery. These are high-quality photos but they were taken before global positioning systems made it easy to locate exactly where they were taken.

A number also had some minor damage in the intervening years—some Sellotape, a tear, a thumbprint. As a result, the individual images had to be stitched together to make a 3D picture of the whole icefield. It was all rather like doing the world’s hardest jigsaw puzzle.

Work like this is crucial as the world’s glaciers are melting fast—all together they are currently losing more mass than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets, and thinning rates of these glaciers worldwide has doubled over the past two decades.

Our longer time series shows just how stark this acceleration is. Understanding how and where “feedbacks” are making glaciers melt even faster is essential to make better predictions of future change in this important regionThe Conversation

Bethan Davies, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, Newcastle University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Alaska’s top-heavy glaciers are approaching an irreversible tipping point Read More »

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The Yellowstone supervolcano destroyed an ecosystem but saved it for us

Features, Science / /

Set in stone —

50 years of excavation unveiled the story of a catastrophic event and its aftermath.

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Interior view of the Rhino Barn. Exposed fossil skeletons left in-situ for research and public viewing.

Enlarge / Interior view of the Rhino Barn. Exposed fossil skeletons left in-situ for research and public viewing.

Rick E. Otto, University of Nebraska State Museum

Death was everywhere. Animal corpses littered the landscape and were mired in the local waterhole as ash swept around everything in its path. For some, death happened quickly; for others, it was slow and painful.

This was the scene in the aftermath of a supervolcanic eruption in Idaho, approximately 1,600 kilometers (900 miles) away. It was an eruption so powerful that it obliterated the volcano itself, leaving a crater 80 kilometers (50 miles) wide and spewing clouds of ash that the wind carried over long distances, killing almost everything that inhaled it. This was particularly true here, in this location in Nebraska, where animals large and small succumbed to the eruption’s deadly emissions.

Eventually, all traces of this horrific event were buried; life continued, evolved, and changed. That’s why, millions of years later in the summer of 1971, Michael Voorhies was able to enjoy another delightful day of exploring.

Finding rhinos

He was, as he had been each summer between academic years, creating a geologic map of his hometown in Nebraska. This meant going from farm to farm and asking if he could walk through the property to survey the rocks and look for fossils. “I’m basically just a kid at heart, and being a paleontologist in the summer was my idea of heaven,” Voorhies, now retired from the University of Georgia, told Ars.

What caught his eye on one particular farm was a layer of volcanic ash—something treasured by geologists and paleontologists, who use it to get the age of deposits. But as he got closer, he also noticed exposed bone. “Finding what was obviously a lower jaw which was still attached to the skull, now that was really quite interesting!” he said. “Mostly what you find are isolated bones and teeth.”

That skull belonged to a juvenile rhino. Voorhies and some of his students returned to the site to dig further, uncovering the rest of the rhino’s completely articulated remains (meaning the bones of its skeleton were connected as they would be in life). More digging produced the intact skeletons of another five or six rhinos. That was enough to get National Geographic funding for a massive excavation that took place between 1978 and 1979. Crews amassed, among numerous other animals, the remarkable total of 70 complete rhino skeletons.

To put this into perspective, most fossil sites—even spectacular locations preserving multiple animals—are composed primarily of disarticulated skeletons, puzzle pieces that paleontologists painstakingly put back together. Here, however, was something no other site had ever before produced: vast numbers of complete skeletons preserved where they died.

Realizing there was still more yet to uncover, Voorhies and others appealed to the larger Nebraska community to help preserve the area. Thanks to hard work and substantial local donations, the Ashfall Fossil Beds park opened to the public in 1991, staffed by two full-time employees.

Fossils discovered are now left in situ, meaning they remain exposed exactly where they are found, protected by a massive structure called the Hubbard Rhino Barn. Excavations are conducted within the barn at a much slower and steadier pace than those in the ’70s due in large part to the small, rotating number of seasonal employees—mostly college students—who excavate further each summer.

The Rhino Barn protects the fossil bed from the elements.

Enlarge / The Rhino Barn protects the fossil bed from the elements.

Photos by Rick E. Otto, University of Nebraska State Museum

A full ecosystem

Almost 50 years of excavation and research have unveiled the story of a catastrophic event and its aftermath, which took place in a Nebraska that nobody would recognize—one where species like rhinoceros, camels, and saber-toothed deer were a common sight.

But to understand that story, we have to set the stage. The area we know today as Ashfall Fossil Beds was actually a waterhole during the Miocene, one frequented by a diversity of animals. We know this because there are fossils of those animals in a layer of sand at the very bottom of the waterhole, a layer that was not impacted by the supervolcanic eruption.

Rick Otto was one of the students who excavated fossils in 1978. He became Ashfall’s superintendent in 1991 and retired in late 2023. “There were animals dying a natural death around the Ashfall waterhole before the volcanic ash storm took place,” Otto told Ars, which explains the fossils found in that sand. After being scavenged, their bodies may have been trampled by some of the megafauna visiting the waterhole, which would have “worked those bones into the sand.”

The Yellowstone supervolcano destroyed an ecosystem but saved it for us Read More »

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Egalitarian oddity found in the Neolithic

Archeology, diet, isotopes, neolithic, Science / /

Eat up! —

Men, women, and immigrants all seemed to have similar dietary inputs.

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Greyscale image of an adult skeleton in a fetal position, framed by vertical rocks.

Enlarge / A skeleton found during 1950’s excavations at the Barman site.

Did ancient people practice equality? While stereotypes may suggest otherwise, the remains of one Neolithic society reveal evidence that both men and women, as well as locals and foreigners, were all equal in at least a critical aspect of life: what they ate.

The Neolithic saw the dawn of agriculture and animal husbandry some 6,000 years ago. In what is now Valais, Switzerland, the type and amount of food people ate was the same regardless of sex or where they had come from. Researchers led by Déborah Rosselet-Christ of the University of Geneva (UNIGE) learned this by analyzing isotopes in the bones and teeth of adults buried in what is now called the Barmaz necropolis. Based on the 49 individuals studied, people at the Barmaz site enjoyed dietary equality.

“Unlike other similar studies of Neolithic burials, the Barmaz population appears to have drawn its protein resources from a similar environment, with the same access to resources for adults, whether male or female,” the researchers said in a study recently published in the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports.

Down to the bone

To determine whether food was equal among the people buried at Barmaz, Rosselet-Christ and her team needed to examine certain isotopes in the bones and others in the teeth. Certain types of bone either do or do not renew, allowing the content of those bones to be associated with either someone’s place of birth or what they ate in their last years.

Being able to tell whether an individual was local or foreign was done by analyzing several strontium isotopes in the enamel of their teeth. Tooth enamel is formed at a young age and does not self-renew, so isotopes found in enamel, which enter it through the food someone eats, are indicative of the environment that their food was from. This can be used to distinguish whether an individual was born somewhere or moved after the early years of their lives. If you know what the strontium ratios are at a given site, you can compare those to the ratios in tooth enamel and determine if the owner of the tooth came from that area.

While strontium in tooth enamel can give away whether someone was born in or moved to a certain location at a young age, various isotopes of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur that also come from food told the research team what and how much people ate during the last years of their lives. Bones such as the humerus (which was the best-preserved bone in most individuals) are constantly renewed with new material. This means that the most recently deposited bone tissue was put in place rather close to death.

Something for everyone

Near the valley of the Rhone River in the Swiss Alps, the Barmaz necropolis is located in an area that was once covered in deciduous forests that villages and farmland replaced. Most of the Barmaz people are thought to be locals. The strontium isotopes found in their teeth showed that only a few had not lived in the area during the first few years of their lives, when the enamel formed, though whether other individuals moved there later in life was more difficult to determine.

Analysis of the Barmaz diet showed that it was heavy on animal protein, supplemented with some plant products such as peas and barley. The isotopes analyzed were mostly from young goats and pigs. Based on higher levels of particular carbon and nitrogen isotopes found in their bones, the researchers think these juvenile animals might not have even been weaned yet, which means that the people of this agrarian society were willing to accept less meat yield for higher quality meat.

Rosselet-Christ’s most significant find was that the same median fractions of certain carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur isotopes were found in the bones of both men and women. Whether these people were local or foreign also did not matter—the values of these isotopes in those with different strontium isotope content in their tooth enamel was also the same. It seems that all adults ate equal amounts of the same foods, which was not always the case in Neolithic societies.

“The individuals buried at Barmaz—whether male or female—appear to have lived with equal opportunities, painting a picture of a society with egalitarian reflections,” the research team said in the same study.

Other things in this society were also equal. The dead were buried the same way, with mostly the same materials, regardless of sex or if they were locals or foreigners. While a society this egalitarian is not often associated with Neolithic people, it shows that some of our ancestors believed that nobody should be left out. Maybe they were much more like us than we think.

Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, 2004. DOI: 10.1016/j.jasrep.2024.104585

Egalitarian oddity found in the Neolithic Read More »

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The greening of planes, trains, and automobiles

Cars, Science / /

Getting greener —

We need new fuels as society moves away from coal, natural gas and oil.

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The greening of planes, trains, and automobiles

As the world races to decarbonize everything from the electricity grid to industry, it faces particular problems with transportation—which alone is responsible for about a quarter of our planet’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The fuels for transport need to be not just green, cheap, and powerful, but also lightweight and safe enough to be carried around.

Fossil fuels—mainly gasoline and diesel—have been extraordinarily effective at powering a diverse range of mobile machines. Since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has perfected the art of dredging these up, refining them, distributing them and combusting them in engines, creating a vast and hard-to-budge industry. Now we have to step away from fossil fuels, and the world is finding no one-size-fits-all replacement.

Each type of transportation has its own peculiarities—which is one reason we have different formulations of hydrocarbons today, from gasoline to diesel, bunker fuel to jet fuel. Cars need a convenient, lightweight power source; container ships need enough oomph to last months; planes absolutely need to be reliable and to work at subzero temperatures. As the fossil fuels are phased out, the transport fuel landscape is “getting more diverse,” says Timothy Lipman, co-director of the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley.

Every energy solution has its pros and cons. Batteries are efficient but struggle with their weight. Hydrogen—the lightest element in the universe—packs a huge energy punch, but it’s expensive to make in a “green” way and, as a gas, it takes up a lot of space. Liquid fuels that carry hydrogen can be easier to transport or drop into an existing engine, but ammonia is toxic, biofuels are in short supply, and synthetic hydrocarbons are hard to produce.

The scale of this energy transition is massive, and the amount of renewable energy the world will require to make the needed electricity and alternative fuels is “a little bit mind-blowing,” says mechanical engineer Keith Wipke, manager of the fuel cell and hydrogen technologies program at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado. Everything, from the electrical grid to buildings and industry, is also thirsty for renewable power: It’s estimated that overall, the global demand for electricity could more than double by 2050. Fortunately, analyses suggest that renewables are up to the task. “We need our foot on the accelerator pedal of renewables 100 percent, as fast as we can, and it will all get used,” says Wipke.

Each mode of transport has its specific fuel needs. Much is still to be settled, but here are some likely possibilities.

Enlarge / Each mode of transport has its specific fuel needs. Much is still to be settled, but here are some likely possibilities.

In order to stay below 1.5° of planetary warming and limit some of the worst effects of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends that the world hit net-zero emissions by 2050—meaning that whatever greenhouse gases we still put into the air we take out in other ways, such as through forests or carbon capture. Groups including the International Energy Agency (IEA)—a Paris-based intergovernmental organization that analyzes the global energy sector—have laid out pathways that can get the world to net zero.

The IEA’s pathway describes a massive, hard-to-enact shift across the entire world, including all kinds of transport. Their goal: to replace fossil fuels (which release long-captured carbon into the air, where it wreaks havoc on the climate) with something more sustainable, like green hydrogen or biofuels (which either don’t produce greenhouse gases at all or recycle the ones that are already in the air).

Although some transportation sectors are still in flux, we can now get a pretty good glimpse of what will likely be powering the ships, planes, trains, and automobiles of tomorrow. Here’s a peek into that future.

The greening of planes, trains, and automobiles Read More »

rocket-report:-firefly-delivers-for-nasa;-polaris-dawn-launching-this-month

Rocket Report: Firefly delivers for NASA; Polaris Dawn launching this month

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No holds barred —

The all-private Polaris Dawn spacewalk mission is set for launch no earlier than July 31.

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Four kerosene-fueled Reaver engines power Firefly's Alpha rocket off the pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

Enlarge / Four kerosene-fueled Reaver engines power Firefly’s Alpha rocket off the pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

Welcome to Edition 7.01 of the Rocket Report! We’re compiling this week’s report a day later than usual due to the Independence Day holiday. Ars is beginning its seventh year publishing this weekly roundup of rocket news, and there’s a lot of it this week despite the holiday here in the United States. Worldwide, there were 122 launches that flew into Earth orbit or beyond in the first half of 2024, up from 91 in the same period last year.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Firefly launches its fifth Alpha flight. Firefly Aerospace placed eight CubeSats into orbit on a mission funded by NASA on the first flight of the company’s Alpha rocket since an upper stage malfunction more than half a year ago, Space News reports. The two-stage Alpha rocket lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California late Wednesday, two days after an issue with ground equipment aborted liftoff just before engine ignition. The eight CubeSats come from NASA centers and universities for a range of educational, research, and technology demonstration missions. This was the fifth flight of Firefly’s Alpha rocket, capable of placing about a metric ton of payload into low-Earth orbit.

Anomaly resolution … This was the fifth flight of an Alpha rocket since 2021 and the fourth Alpha flight to achieve orbit. But the last Alpha launch in December failed to place its Lockheed Martin payload into the proper orbit due to a problem during the relighting of its second-stage engine. On this week’s launch, Alpha deployed its NASA-sponsored payloads after a single burn of the second stage, then completed a successful restart of the engine for a plane change maneuver. Engineers traced the problem on the last Alpha flight to a software error. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Two companies added to DoD’s launch pool. Blue Origin and Stoke Space Technologies — neither of which has yet reached orbit — have been approved by the US Space Force to compete for future launches of small payloads, Breaking Defense reports. Blue Origin and Stoke Space join a roster of launch companies eligible to compete for launch task orders the Space Force puts up for bid through the Orbital Services Program-4 (OSP-4) contract. Under this contract, Space Systems Command buys launch services for payloads 400 pounds (180 kilograms) or greater, enabling launch from 12 to 24 months of the award of a task order. The OSP-4 contract has an “emphasis on small orbital launch capabilities and launch solutions for Tactically Responsive Space mission needs,” said Lt. Col. Steve Hendershot, chief of Space Systems Command’s small launch and targets division.

An even dozen … Blue Origin aims to launch its orbital-class New Glenn rocket for the first time as soon as late September, while Stoke Space aims to fly its Nova rocket on an orbital test flight next year. The addition of these two companies means there are 12 providers eligible to bid on OSP-4 task orders. The other companies are ABL Space Systems, Aevum, Astra, Firefly Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, Relativity Space, Rocket Lab, SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, and X-Bow. (submitted by Ken the Bin and brianrhurley)

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Italian startup test-fires small rocket. Italian rocket builder Sidereus Space Dynamics has completed the first integrated system test of its EOS rocket, European Spaceflight reports. This test occurred Sunday, culminating in a firing of the rocket’s kerosene/liquid oxygen MR-5 main engine for approximately 11 seconds. The EOS rocket is a novel design, utilizing a single-stage-to-orbit architecture, with the reusable booster returning to Earth from orbit for recovery under a parafoil. The rocket stands less than 14 feet (4.2 meters) tall and will be capable of delivering about 29 pounds (13 kilograms) of payload to low-Earth orbit.

A lean operation … After it completes integrated testing on the ground, the company will conduct the first low-altitude EOS test flights. Founded in 2019, Sidereus has raised 6.6 million euros ($7.1 million) to fund the development of the EOS rocket. While this is a fraction of the funding other European launch startups like Isar Aerospace, MaiaSpace, and Orbex have attracted, the Sidereus’s CEO, Mattia Barbarossa, has previously stated that the company intends to “reshape spaceflight in a fraction of the time and with limited resources.” (submitted by EllPeaTea and Ken the Bin)

Rocket Report: Firefly delivers for NASA; Polaris Dawn launching this month Read More »

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What we know about microdosing candy illnesses as death investigation underway

cases, diamond shruumz, health, microdosing, muscimol, mushrooms, psychedelics, Science, seizures, Toxicology / /
The Birthday Cake flavored bar.

Enlarge / The Birthday Cake flavored bar.

One person may have died from eating Diamond Shruumz microdosing candies, which were recalled last week amid a rash of severe illnesses involving seizures, intubation, and intensive care stays.

According to an update this week from the Food and Drug Administration, the cluster of cases continues to increase across the country. To date, 48 people across 24 states have fallen ill after eating the candies, which include chocolate bars, gummies, and candy cones that were sold online and in retail locations, such as smoke and vape shops. Of the 48 people sickened, 46 were ill enough to seek medical care, and 27 were admitted to a hospital.

For now, the death noted in the FDA’s latest update is only “potentially associated” with the candies and is still under investigation. No other information is yet available.

But in an interview with Ars, medical toxicologist Michael Moss was not surprised that the candies may have turned deadly. Moss, who is the medical director of the Utah Poison Control Center, cared for one of the first people reported to be sickened in the cluster.

An early case

The person was sickened in Nevada and transferred to a hospital in Utah, where Moss was a member of his care team. After the person came out of intensive care, Moss sat down with him and tried to piece together what happened. According to Moss, the person had bought a Birthday Cake-flavored chocolate bar at a local store. The bars are sold as “microdosing” candies, suggesting they contain psychedelic compounds, but the exact components and dosages aren’t listed.

Though the person told Moss he had some experience with psychedelics before, it was only with actual mushrooms. This was the first time he had eaten such a bar. And the bar’s packaging had only vague instructions of how much to eat at one time to achieve certain effects. For instance, eating nine or more squares of the bar was described with an image of an eye with lots of rainbow colors.

“What does that dose mean? And how many milligrams of what is that? Nobody knows,” Moss said. “So, he decided, ‘It’s a chocolate bar.’ So why wouldn’t you just eat the chocolate bar? Pretty reasonable thing to do.”

But, within minutes of eating the bar, the person felt nauseated and very dizzy and tired. He went to lie down and doesn’t remember much after that. Fortunately, a family member came home soon after and found him. The family member saw that he had vomited and was possibly aspirating or choking. By the time paramedics arrived, he was having a seizure. He had another in the emergency room. Doctors gave him anti-seizure medications and a breathing tube and put him on ventilation before transferring him to the hospital in Utah.

What we know about microdosing candy illnesses as death investigation underway Read More »

iter-fusion-reactor-to-see-further-delays,-with-operations-pushed-to-2034

ITER fusion reactor to see further delays, with operations pushed to 2034

delays, fusion, ITER, Physics, Science / /

Better late than never? —

Full fusion power won’t happen until nearly 2040 on new timeline.

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Image of a large metal vessel with a number of holes cut into it.

Enlarge / One of the components of the reactor during leak testing.

On Tuesday, the people managing the ITER experimental fusion reactor announced that a combination of delays and altered priorities meant that its first-of-its-kind hardware wouldn’t see plasma until 2036, with the full-energy deuterium-tritium fusion pushed back to 2039. The latter represents a four-year delay relative to the previous roadmap. While the former is also a delay, it’s due in part to changing priorities.

COVID and construction delays

ITER is an attempt to build a fusion reactor that’s capable of sustaining plasmas that allow it to operate well beyond the break-even point, where the energy released by fusion reactions significantly exceeds the energy required to create the conditions that enable those reactions. It’s meant to hit that milestone by scaling up a well-understood design called a tokamak.

But the problem has been plagued by delays and cost overruns nearly from its start. At early stages, many of these stemmed from changes in designs necessitated by a better and improved understanding of plasmas held at extreme pressures and temperatures due to better modeling capabilities and a better understanding of the behavior of plasmas in smaller reactions.

The latest delays are due to more prosaic reasons. One of them is the product of the international nature of the collaboration, which sees individual components built by different partner organizations before assembly at the reactor site in France. The pandemic, unsurprisingly, severely disrupted the production of a lot of these components, and the project’s structure meant that alternate suppliers couldn’t be used (assuming alternate suppliers of one-of-a-kind hardware existed in the first place).

The second problem relates to the location of the reactor in France. The country’s nuclear safety regulator had concerns about the assembly of some of the components and halted construction on the reactor.

High energy from the start

During the re-evaluation of the schedule that these delays would necessitate, the organization that manages ITER re-assessed some of its priorities. The previous schedule would have seen getting plasma into the machine prioritized, seeing relatively low-energy hydrogen plasmas put into the machine before all of the final hardware was complete. This would necessitate an extended shutdown after initial experiments before the reactor could be used at progressively higher energies, using more potent deuterium and deuterium/tritium plasmas.

In the previous schedule, the low-energy, hydrogen-only plasmas would have started testing in 2025, a target date that the delays have made completely unrealistic. Instead, they’ll now happen in 2034. However, rather than being a set of brief demonstrations, these experiments will continue for over two years and reach much higher energies. So, while having plasma in the machine will be delayed by nearly a decade, the system’s magnets will reach power only three years later than expected under the previous plan.

Full power operations using a deuterium/tritium fuel mix will be set back by four years. Even if this new schedule is kept, however, that won’t be until 2039.

So, we’re looking at 15 years even if there are no further delays. But the potential for said delays likely went up, as the announcement indicates that ITER will be switching to a different material (from beryllium to tungsten) for the construction of the inner wall that faces the plasma. This will be more relevant since many other projects, including commercial fusion startups, are planning on using tungsten. But it may still add a new suite of technical and manufacturing delays.

The risk for ITER, however, is that all of these delays cause some of the nations that are supporting the project to back out. Or, if some of the commercial fusion startups that have launched would have it, create the risk that fusion will already be here by the time ITER is ready to run.

ITER fusion reactor to see further delays, with operations pushed to 2034 Read More »

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Here’s why SpaceX’s competitors are crying foul over Starship launch plans

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SpaceX launches Falcon 9 rockets from Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center and from Pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The company plans to develop Starship launch infrastructure at Pad 39A and Pad 37. United Launch Alliance flies Vulcan and Atlas V rockets from Pad 41, and Blue Origin will base its New Glenn rocket at Pad 36.

Enlarge / SpaceX launches Falcon 9 rockets from Pad 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and from Pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The company plans to develop Starship launch infrastructure at Pad 39A and Pad 37. United Launch Alliance flies Vulcan and Atlas V rockets from Pad 41, and Blue Origin will base its New Glenn rocket at Pad 36.

NASA (labels by Ars Technica)

United Launch Alliance and Blue Origin are worried about SpaceX’s plans to launch its enormous Starship rocket from Florida.

In documents submitted to the Federal Aviation Administration last month, ULA and Blue Origin raised concerns about the impact of Starship launch operations on their own activities on Florida’s Space Coast. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’ space company, urged the federal government to consider capping the number of Starship launches and landings, test-firings, and other operations, and limiting SpaceX’s activities to particular times.

Elon Musk, founder and CEO of SpaceX, called Blue Origin’s filing with the FAA “an obviously disingenuous response. Not cool of them to try (for the third time) to impede SpaceX’s progress by lawfare.” We’ll get to that in a moment.

The FAA and SpaceX are preparing an environmental impact statement for launches and landings of the Super Heavy booster and Starship rocket at Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center (KSC), while the US Space Force is working with SpaceX on a similar environmental review for Starship flights from Space Launch Complex 37 at nearby Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS).

These reviews likely won’t be complete until late 2025, at the earliest, and only then will SpaceX be cleared to launch Starship from Florida. SpaceX also must construct launch infrastructure at both sites, which could take a couple of years. This is already underway at Launch Complex 39A.

Big rocket with a big footprint

During the environmental review process, the FAA should weigh how regular flights of the reusable Starship—as many as 120 launches per year, according to TechCrunch—will affect other launch providers operating at Cape Canaveral, ULA and Blue Origin said. SpaceX’s final proposed launch cadence from each site will be part of draft environmental assessments released for public comment as soon as the end of this year.

SpaceX plans to launch Starlink satellites, customer payloads, and missions to support NASA’s Artemis lunar landings from the launch pads in Florida. Getting a launch pad up and running in Florida is one of several schedule hurdles facing SpaceX’s program to develop a human-rated lunar lander version of Starship, alongside demonstrating orbital refueling.

Starship-Super Heavy launches and landings “are expected to have a greater environmental impact than any other launch system currently operating at KSC or CCSFS,” Blue Origin wrote. In its current configuration, Starship is the most powerful rocket in history, and SpaceX is developing a larger version standing 492 feet (150 meters) tall with nearly 15 million pounds (6,700 metric tons) of propellant. This larger variant is the one that will fly from Cape Canaveral.

“It’s a very, very large rocket, and getting bigger,” wrote Tory Bruno, ULA’s CEO, in a post on X. “That quantity of propellant requires an evacuation zone whenever fueled that includes other people’s facilities. A (weekly) launch has injurious sound levels all the way into town. The Cape isn’t meant for a monopoly.”

SpaceX's Starship rocket launches from Starbase during its second test flight in Boca Chica, Texas, on November 18, 2023.

Enlarge / SpaceX’s Starship rocket launches from Starbase during its second test flight in Boca Chica, Texas, on November 18, 2023.

At SpaceX’s privately owned Starbase launch site in South Texas, the evacuation zone is set at 1.5 miles (2.5 kilometers) when Starship and Super Heavy are filled with methane and liquid oxygen propellants. During an actual launch, the checkpoint is farther back at more than 3 miles (5 kilometers) from the pad.

“The total launch capacity of the Cape will go down if other providers are forced to evacuate their facilities whenever a vehicle is fueled,” Bruno wrote.

We don’t yet know the radius of the keep-out zones for Starship operations in Florida, but Blue Origin wrote that the impact of Starship activities in Florida “may be even greater than at Starbase,” presumably due to the larger rocket SpaceX plans to launch from Cape Canaveral. If this is the case, neighboring launch pads would need to be evacuated during Starship operations.

Purely based on the geography of Cape Canaveral, ULA seems to have the bigger worry. Its launch pad for the Vulcan and Atlas V rocket is located less than 2.2 miles (3.5 kilometers) from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A). SpaceX’s proposal for up to 44 launches from LC-39A “will result in significant airspace and ground closures, result in acoustic impacts felt at nearby operations, and potentially produce debris, particulates, and property damage,” ULA said.

ULA said these hazards could prevent it from fulfilling its contracts to launch critical national security satellites for the US military.

“As the largest rocket in existence, an accident would inflict serious or even catastrophic damage, while normal launch operations would have a cumulative impact on structures, launch vehicle hardware, and other critical launch support equipment,” ULA said.

Here’s why SpaceX’s competitors are crying foul over Starship launch plans Read More »

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SpaceX video teases potential Starship booster “catch” on next flight

chopsticks, Science, Space, spacex, starship / /

A strong grip —

A booster landing would be a calculated risk to SpaceX’s launch tower infrastructure.

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In early June, the rocket for SpaceX's fourth full-scale Starship test flight awaits liftoff from Starbase, the company's private launch base in South Texas.

Enlarge / In early June, the rocket for SpaceX’s fourth full-scale Starship test flight awaits liftoff from Starbase, the company’s private launch base in South Texas.

SpaceX

In a short video released Thursday, possibly to celebrate the US Fourth of July holiday with the biggest rocket’s red glare of them all, SpaceX provided new footage of the most recent test of its Starship launch vehicle.

This test, the fourth of the experimental rocket that NASA is counting on to land its astronauts on the Moon, and which one day may launch humans to Mars, took place on June 6. During the flight, the first stage of the rocket performed well during ascent and, after separating from the upper stage, made a controlled reentry into the Gulf of Mexico. The Starship upper stage appeared to make a nominal flight through space before making a controlled—if fiery—landing in the Indian Ocean.

The new video focuses mostly on the “Super Heavy” booster stage and its entry into the Gulf. There is new footage from a camera on top of the 71-meter-tall first stage as well as a nearby buoy at water level. The video from the buoy, in particular, shows the first stage making an upright landing into the ocean.

Starship fourth flight test.

Perhaps most intriguingly, at the end of the video, SpaceX teases an image of Starship’s large launch tower in South Texas at the Starbase facility. Prominently featured are the two “chopsticks,” large arms intended to catch the first stage booster as it slowly descends back toward its launch pad.

Then, in simulated footage, the video shows Starship’s first stage descending back toward the launch tower with the title “Flight 5.” And then it fades out.

To land, or not to land?

This supports the idea that SpaceX is working toward attempting a Starship booster catch on its next flight test, which likely will occur later this summer. Doubtless, the company still has both technical and regulatory work before this can happen.

In the days immediately following the fourth flight test, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said it was the company’s goal to make such a landing attempt on the next launch. However, during a talk last week with local residents in south Texas, Starbase General Manager Kathy Lueders said this attempt might not occur on Flight 5.

However, the new video released Thursday indicates that a catch attempt is still on the table as a possibility, and perhaps even a likelihood. Such a landing would be both stunning visually, as well as a calculated risk to SpaceX’s launch tower infrastructure, as the booster likely would be landing with a few spare tons of methane and liquid oxygen propellant in its tanks.

If SpaceX decides to press ahead with the attempt, it must still obtain a launch and reentry license from the Federal Aviation Administration, which is tasked with ensuring the safety of people and property on the ground. It seems probable that the next test flight will not occur before August.

Flight 5 tease.

Enlarge / Flight 5 tease.

SpaceX

Meanwhile, activities at the South Texas launch site may well be curtailed for a couple of days as Hurricane Beryl enters the Gulf of Mexico later on Friday and then tracks toward the Texas coast early next week. The center of Beryl is expected to pass near or north of the launch site late on Sunday night or Monday, bringing winds and surges.

However, because Beryl is not expected to be a major hurricane in terms of wind speed, these impacts should not prove catastrophic to SpaceX facilities. Heavy rainfall and inland flooding in the low-lying Starbase area is also a possibility on Monday and Tuesday before the storm pulls away.

SpaceX video teases potential Starship booster “catch” on next flight Read More »