Enlarge/ Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft, seen docked at the International Space Station through the window of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft.
As soon as this week, NASA officials will make perhaps the agency’s most consequential safety decision in human spaceflight in 21 years.
NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are nearly 10 weeks into a test flight that was originally set to last a little more than one week. The two retired US Navy test pilots were the first people to fly into orbit on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft when it launched on June 5. Now, NASA officials aren’t sure Starliner is safe enough to bring the astronauts home.
Three of the managers at the center of the pending decision, Ken Bowersox and Steve Stich from NASA and Boeing’s LeRoy Cain, either had key roles in the ill-fated final flight of Space Shuttle Columbia in 2003 or felt the consequences of the accident.
At that time, officials misjudged the risk. Seven astronauts died, and the Space Shuttle Columbia was destroyed as it reentered the atmosphere over Texas. Bowersox, Stich, and Cain weren’t the people making the call on the health of Columbia‘s heat shield in 2003, but they had front-row seats to the consequences.
Bowersox was an astronaut on the International Space Station when NASA lost Columbia. He and his crewmates were waiting to hitch a ride home on the next Space Shuttle mission, which was delayed two-and-a-half years in the wake of the Columbia accident. Instead, Bowersox’s crew came back to Earth later that year on a Russian Soyuz capsule. After retiring from the astronaut corps, Bowersox worked at SpaceX and is now the head of NASA’s spaceflight operations directorate.
Stich and Cain were NASA flight directors in 2003, and they remain well-respected in human spaceflight circles. Stich is now the manager of NASA’s commercial crew program, and Cain is now a Boeing employee and chair of the company’s Starliner mission director. For the ongoing Starliner mission, Bowersox, Stich, and Cain are in the decision-making chain.
All three joined NASA in the late 1980s, soon after the Challenger accident. They have seen NASA attempt to reshape its safety culture after both of NASA’s fatal Space Shuttle tragedies. After Challenger, NASA’s astronaut office had a more central role in safety decisions, and the agency made efforts to listen to dissent from engineers. Still, human flaws are inescapable, and NASA’s culture was unable to alleviate them during Columbia‘s last flight in 2003.
NASA knew launching a Space Shuttle in cold weather reduced the safety margin on its solid rocket boosters, which led to the Challenger accident. And shuttle managers knew foam routinely fell off the external fuel tank. In a near-miss, one of these foam fragments hit a shuttle booster but didn’t damage it, just two flights prior to Columbia‘s STS-107 mission.
“I have wondered if some in management roles today that were here when we lost Challenger and Columbia remember that in both of those tragedies, there were those that were not comfortable proceeding,” Milt Heflin, a retired NASA flight director who spent 47 years at the agency, wrote in an email to Ars. “Today, those memories are still around.”
“I suspect Stich and Cain are paying attention to the right stuff,” Heflin wrote.
The question facing NASA’s leadership today? Should the two astronauts return to Earth from the International Space Station in Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft, with its history of thruster failures and helium leaks, or should they come home on a SpaceX Dragon capsule?
Under normal conditions, the first option is the choice everyone at NASA would like to make. It would be least disruptive to operations at the space station and would potentially maintain a clearer future for Boeing’s Starliner program, which NASA would like to become operational for regular crew rotation flights to the station.
But some people at NASA aren’t convinced this is the right call. Engineers still don’t fully understand why five of the Starliner spacecraft’s thrusters overheated and lost power as the capsule approached the space station for docking in June. Four of these five control jets are now back in action with near-normal performance, but managers would like to be sure the same thrusters—and maybe more—won’t fail again as Starliner departs the station and heads for reentry.
Enlarge/ Debris from the upper stage of China’s Long March 6A rocket captured from the ground by Slingshot Aerospace.
The upper stage from a Chinese rocket that launched a batch of Internet satellites Tuesday has broken apart in space, creating a debris field of at least 700 objects in one of the most heavily-trafficked zones in low-Earth orbit.
US Space Command, which tracks objects in orbit with a network of radars and optical sensors, confirmed the rocket breakup Thursday. Space Command initially said the event created more than 300 pieces of trackable debris. The military’s ground-based radars are capable of tracking objects larger than 10 centimeters (4 inches).
Later Thursday, LeoLabs, a commercial space situational awareness company, said its radars detected at least 700 objects attributed to the Chinese rocket. The number of debris fragments could rise to more than 900, LeoLabs said.
The culprit is the second stage of China’s Long March 6A rocket, which lifted off Tuesday with the first batch of 18 satellites for a planned Chinese megaconstellation that could eventually number thousands of spacecraft. The Long March 6A’s second stage apparently disintegrated after placing its payload of 18 satellites into a polar orbit.
Space Command said in a statement it has “observed no immediate threats” and “continues to conduct routine conjunction assessments to support the safety and sustainability of the space domain.” According to LeoLabs, radar data indicated the rocket broke apart at an altitude of 503 miles (810 kilometers) at approximately 4: 10 pm EDT (20: 10 UTC) on Tuesday, around 13-and-a-half hours after it lifted off from northern China.
At this altitude, it will take decades or centuries for the wispy effect of aerodynamic drag to pull the debris back into the atmosphere. As the objects drift lower, their orbits will cross paths with SpaceX’s Starlink Internet satellites, the International Space Station and other crew spacecraft, and thousands more pieces of orbital debris, putting commercial and government satellites at risk of collision.
A new debris field of nearly 1,000 objects would be a significant addition to the approximately 46,000 objects Space Command tracks in Earth orbit. According to statistics compiled by Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who monitors global launch and spaceflight activity, this would rank in the top five of all debris-generation events since the dawn of the Space Age.
This rocket has a track record
The medium-class Long March 6A rocket has launched seven times since debuting in March 2022, and military and commercial satellite tracking organizations have reported several breakups of the rocket’s upper stage. In November 2022, a Long March 6A upper stage disintegrated in orbit, creating a debris field of more than 500 trackable objects, according to NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office.
Commercial satellite tracking companies observed smaller debris fields following several other Long March 6A flights this year.
In its space environment statistics report, the European Space Agency says there have been more than 640 “breakups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation” in orbit. So these things happen frequently. But it’s not clear what makes the Long March 6A, which has a relatively short flight history, particularly vulnerable to creating debris.
Enlarge/ A Long March 6A rocket launches the first 18 Internet satellites for China’s Qianfan, or Thousand Sails, broadband network.
Most rockets operating today either reignite their engines to reenter the atmosphere after deploying their payloads, or if that’s not feasible, they “passivate” themselves to empty their propellant tanks and drain their batteries to reduce the risk of an explosion.
In a report last year, NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office said the Long March 6A upper stage has a mass of about 5,800 kilograms (12,800 pounds) without kerosene and liquid oxygen propellants. It is powered by a single YF-115 engine.
The launch Tuesday began the deployment of China’s “Thousand Sails” Internet network, which will initially consist of 1,296 satellites, with the possibility to expand to more than 14,000 spacecraft. This will require numerous launches, some of which will presumably use the Long March 6A.
“If even a fraction of the launches needed to field this Chinese megaconstellation generate as much debris as this first launch, the result would be a notable addition to the space debris population in LEO (low-Earth orbit),” said Audrey Schaffer, vice president of strategy and policy at Slingshot Aerospace, a commercial satellite tracking and analytics firm.
China has been responsible for several space debris incidents beyond the latest problems with the Long March 6A rocket. In 2007, China destroyed one of its own spacecraft in an anti-satellite missile test. This was the worst-ever instance of creating space debris, resulting in more than 3,000 trackable objects, and an estimate 150,000 or more smaller fragments.
On four occasions from 2020 through 2022, the massive core stage of China’s heavy-lift Long March 5B rocket has reentered the atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner, raising concerns that falling debris could put people and property at risk on Earth.
China plans more flights with its Long March 5B and Long March 6A rockets. China continued flying the Long March 5B rocket despite the risk it posed to people on the ground. Debris fields in orbit, however, don’t directly threaten any people on Earth, but they do raise the risk to satellites of all nations, including China’s own spacecraft.
“Events like this highlight the importance of adherence to existing space debris mitigation guidelines to reduce the creation of new space debris and underscore the need for robust space domain awareness capabilities to rapidly detect, track, and catalog newly-launched space objects so they can be screened for potential conjunctions,” Schaffer said in a statement.
This story was updated with the detection of additional debris fragments by LeoLabs.
Enlarge/ Rocket Lab says it fired up the Archimedes engine at full thrust this week.
Rocket Lab
Welcome to Edition 7.06 of the Rocket Report! There has been a lot of drama over the last week involving NASA, the crew of Starliner on board the International Space Station, and the launch of the Crew-9 mission on a Falcon 9 rocket. NASA is now down to a binary choice: Fly Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams home on Starliner, or send two astronauts to orbit on Crew-9, and return Wilmore and Williams next February on that spacecraft. We should know NASA’s final decision next week.
As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Firefly inks another big Alpha contract. Firefly Aerospace said Wednesday that it has signed a multi-launch agreement with L3Harris Technologies for up to 20 launches on Firefly’s Alpha rocket, including two to four missions per year from 2027 to 2031, depending on customer needs. The new agreement is in addition to Firefly’s existing multi-launch agreement with L3Harris for three Alpha missions in 2026. What is not clear is exactly what satellites L3Harris wants to launch.
Putting skins on the wall … “Firefly continues to see growing demand for Alpha’s responsive small-lift services, and we’re committed to providing a dedicated launch option that takes our customers directly to their preferred orbits,” said Peter Schumacher, Interim CEO at Firefly Aerospace. This represents another significant win for the Alpha rocket, which can lift about 1 metric ton to low-Earth orbit. Under terms of a separate agreement announced in June, Lockheed purchased 15 launches from Firefly, with an option for 10 more, through the year 2029. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)
Electron pushing launch cadence. Rocket Lab announced Wednesday that it has scheduled the launch for its 52nd Electron mission, which will deploy a single satellite for American space tech company Capella Space. The mission is scheduled to launch during a 14-day window that opens on August 11 from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 on New Zealand’s Mahia Peninsula.
Getting to ten much faster … Should this launch take place at the opening of this window, this Electron flight would occur just eight days after the most recent Electron mission on August 3. This upcoming mission for Capella will be Rocket Lab’s tenth mission for 2024, equaling the company’s annual launch record set in 2023. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s space reporting is to sign up for his newsletter, we’ll collect his stories in your inbox.
PLD Space to start work on launch site. PLD Space plans to start building launch facilities for its Miura 5 rocket in October from the Diamant site at Guiana Space Centre, cofounder and Chief Business Development Officer Raúl Verdú said this week, Space News reports. Diamant has been dormant for decades after once being used for the French rocket of the same name, and “in the area where we are there is nothing,” Verdú said, “we have to do everything from scratch.”
Lots of things to build … PLD Space, Germany’s Isar Aerospace and a handful of other small European launchers are working with France’s CNES space agency to convert the site into a multi-use facility. In June, the Spanish company announced a 10 million euro ($11 million) investment plan for 15,765 square meters of space at Diamant, divided between a launch zone and a preparation area comprising an integration hangar, clean room, control center, commercial and work offices. CNES is providing common infrastructure such as roads and electricity networks. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Japanese firm raises $21 million. Interstellar Technologies announced a new fundraising round that brings its total capital and government funding to $117 million, Payload reports. After building and launching a suborbital rocket called Momo, the company is building its first orbital rocket, dubbed ZERO, with a goal of flying in 2025. This rocket is intended to carry 800 kg of payload to low-Earth orbit, and be cheaper than Rocket Lab’s Electron, COO Keiji Atsuta said.
Big help from Japan … Interstellar’s latest round was led by Japanese VC fund SBI and NTT Docomo, the country’s leading mobile firm. Previously, it received a large amount of funding, $96 million, from the Japanese government. “The Japanese government has explicitly expressed its support for private rockets due to the growing importance of the space industry, and being selected for this support program has significantly accelerated our business,” Interstellar CEO Takahiro Inagawa said. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Cross-border deal benefits Nova Scotia spaceport. The Canadian government says it has completed negotiations with the United States on an agreement that would allow the use of US space launch technology, expertise, and data for space launches in Canada, the AP reports. Maritime Launch Services, the company developing Canada’s first commercial spaceport in northeastern Nova Scotia, called the agreement a major step forward for the industry.
US rockets could launch from Canada … Ottawa has said it hopes to position Canada as future leader in commercial space launches. The country has geographical advantages, including a vast, sparsely populated territory and high-inclination orbits. The agreement, which is yet to be signed, will establish the legal and technical safeguards needed while ensuring the proper handling of sensitive technology, the government said in a news release. (submitted by JoeyS-IVB)
“Archeology really is a perspective on material culture we use as evidence to understand how humans adapt to their environment, to the situations they are in, and to each other. There is no place, no time that is out of bounds,” says Justin Walsh, an archeologist at Chapman University who led the first off-world archeological study on board the ISS.
Walsh’s and his team wanted to understand, document, and preserve the heritage of the astronaut culture at one of the first permanent space habitats. “There is this notion about astronauts that they are high achievers, highly intelligent, and highly trained, that they are not like you and me. What we learned is that they are just people, and they want the comforts of home,” Walsh says.
Disposable cameras and garbage
“In 2008, my student in an archeology class raised her hand and said, ‘What about stuff in space, is that heritage?’ I said, ‘Oh my God, I’ve never thought of this before, but yes,’” Walsh says. “Think of Tranquility base—it’s an archeological site. You could go back there, and you could reconstruct not only the specific activities of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin, but you could understand the engineering culture, the political culture, etc. of the society that created that equipment, sent it to the Moon, and left it there.”
So he conceived the idea of an archeological study on the ISS, wrote a proposal, sent it to NASA, and got rejected. NASA said human sciences were not their priority and not part of their mission. But in 2021, NASA changed its mind.
“They said they had an experiment that could not be done at the scheduled time, so they had to delay it. Also, they changed the crew size from six to seven people,” says Walsh. These opened up some idle time in the astronauts’ schedules, allowing NASA to find space in the schedule for less urgent projects on the station. The agency gave Walsh’s team the go-ahead under the condition that their study could be done with the equipment already present on the ISS.
The outline of Walsh’s research was inspired by and loosely based on the Tucson Garbage Project and the Undocumented Migration Project, two contemporary archeology studies. The first drew conclusions about people’s lives by studying the garbage they threw away. The second documented the experiences of migrants on their way to the US from Mexico.
“Jason De León, who is the principal investigator of this project, gave people in Mexico disposable cameras, and he retrieved those cameras from them when they got to the US. He could observe things they experienced without being there himself. For me, that was a lightbulb moment,” says Walsh.
There were cameras on board the ISS and there was a crew to take pictures with them. To pull off an equivalent of digging a test pit in space, Walsh’s team chose six locations on the station, asked the crew to mark them with squares one meter across, and asked the astronauts to take a picture of each of those squares once a day for 60 days, from January to March 2022.
Building a space shed
In the first paper discussing the study’s results, Walsh’s team covered two out of six chosen locations, dubbed squares 03 and 05. The 03 square was in a maintenance area near the four crew berths where the US crew sleeps. It’s near docking ports for spacecraft coming to the ISS. The square was drawn around a blue board with Velcro patches meant to hold tools and equipment in place.
“All historic photographs of this location published by NASA show somebody working in there—fixing a piece of equipment, doing a science experiment,” says Walsh. But when his team analyzed day-by-day photos of the same spot, the items velcroed to the wall hardly changed in those 60 days. “It was the same set of items over and over again. If there was an activity, it was a scientific experiment. It was supposed to be the maintenance area. So where was the maintenance? And even if it was a science area, where’s the science? It was only happening on 10 percent of days,” Walsh says.
Enlarge/ EUS panel test weld at the Michoud Assembly Facility on Tuesday, February 9, 2021.
Michael DeMocker/NASA
The NASA program to develop a new upper stage for the Space Launch System rocket is seven years behind schedule and significantly over budget, a new report from the space agency’s inspector general finds. However, beyond these headline numbers, there is also some eye-opening information about the project’s prime contractor, Boeing, and its poor quality control practices.
The new Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful second stage for the SLS rocket that made its debut in late 2022, is viewed by NASA as a key piece of its Artemis program to return humans to the Moon. The current plan calls for the use of this new upper stage beginning with the second lunar landing, the Artemis IV mission, currently scheduled for 2028. In NASA parlance, the upgraded version of the SLS rocket is known as Block 1B.
However, for many reasons—including the readiness of lunar landers, Lunar Gateway hardware, a new mobile launch tower, and more—NASA is unlikely to hold that date. Now, based on information in this new report, we can probably add the Exploration Upper Stage to the list.
“We found an array of issues that could hinder SLS Block 1B’s readiness for Artemis IV including Boeing’s inadequate quality management system, escalating costs and schedules, and inadequate visibility into the Block 1B’s projected costs,” states the report, signed by NASA’s deputy inspector general, George A. Scott.
Quality control a concern
There are some surprising details in the report about Boeing’s quality control practices at the Michoud Assembly Facility in southern Louisiana, where the Exploration Upper Stage is being manufactured. Federal observers have issued a striking number of “Corrective Action Requests” to Boeing.
“According to Safety and Mission Assurance officials at NASA and DCMA officials at Michoud, Boeing’s quality control issues are largely caused by its workforce having insufficient aerospace production experience,” the report states. “The lack of a trained and qualified workforce increases the risk that the contractor will continue to manufacture parts and components that do not adhere to NASA requirements and industry standards.”
This lack of a qualified workforce has resulted in significant program delays and increased costs. According to the new report, “unsatisfactory” welding operations resulted in propellant tanks that did not meet specifications, which directly led to a seven-month delay in the program.
NASA’s inspector general was concerned enough with quality control to recommend that the space agency institute financial penalties for Boeing’s noncompliance. However, in a response to the report, NASA’s deputy associate administrator, Catherine Koerner, declined to do so. “NASA interprets this recommendation to be directing NASA to institute penalties outside the bounds of the contract,” she replied. “There are already authorities in the contract, such as award fee provisions, which enable financial ramifications for noncompliance with quality control standards.”
The lack of enthusiasm by NASA to penalize Boeing for these issues will not help the perception that the agency treats some of its contractors with kid gloves.
Seven years late
The new report predicts that Block 1B development costs will reach $5.7 billion before it ultimately launches, which is already $700 million more than a cost estimate NASA formally established just last December.
As for the upper stage itself, NASA initially predicted development costs would be $962 million back in 2017. However, the new report predicts that the Exploration Upper Stage will actually cost $2.8 billion, or three times the original cost estimate. (For what it is worth, Ars used a simple estimating tool in 2019 to predict the Exploration Upper Stage development cost would be $2.5 billion. So it’s not like it was a huge secret that NASA and Boeing would blow out the budget here).
Enlarge/ The delays in Exploration Upper Stage development are almost year for year.
NASA Inspector General
However, the increased costs will benefit Boeing, since this is a cost-plus contract that pays for all of Boeing’s expenses, plus a fee. This may help explain why a development program that was originally supposed to be completed in 2021 is not likely to be finished until 2028 at the earliest.
And what for? The Space Launch System works great as it is. There are far, far cheaper upper stages that could be used for the rocket’s primary function to launch the Orion spacecraft to lunar orbit, including United Launch Alliance’s reliable (and ready) Centaur V upper stage. With Starship and New Glenn, NASA will also soon have two very powerful commercial super heavy lift rockets to draw upon.
Enlarge/ A Long March 6A rocket launches the first 18 Internet satellites for China’s Qianfan, or Thousand Sails, broadband network.
Chinese officials have long signaled their interest in deploying a satellite network, or maybe several, to beam broadband Internet signals across China and other nations within its sphere of influence.
Two serious efforts are underway in China to develop a rival to SpaceX’s Starlink network, which the Chinese government has banned in its territory. The first batch of 18 satellites for one of those Chinese networks launched into low-Earth orbit Tuesday.
A Long March 6A rocket delivered the 18 spacecraft into a polar orbit following liftoff at 2: 42 am EDT (06: 42 UTC) from the Taiyuan launch base in northern China’s Shanxi province. The Long March 6A is one of China’s newest rockets—and the country’s first to employ strap-on solid rocket boosters—with the ability to deploy a payload of up to 4.5 metric tons (9,900 pounds) into a 700-kilometer (435-mile) Sun-synchronous orbit.
The rocket placed its payload of 18 Qianfan satellites into the proper orbit, and the launch mission was a complete success, according to the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the largest state-owned contractor for the Chinese space program.
Qianfan translates to “Thousand Sails,” and the 18 satellites launched Tuesday are the first of potentially thousands of spacecraft planned by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), a company backed by Shanghai’s municipal government. The network developed by SSST is also called the “Spacesail Constellation.”
Shanghai officials only began releasing details of this constellation last year. A filing with the International Telecommunication Union suggests the developers of Shanghai-based megaconstellation initially plan to deploy 1,296 satellites at an altitude of about 1,160 kilometers (721 miles).
Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, said the constellation “will provide global users with low-latency, high-speed and ultra-reliable satellite broadband Internet services.”
Opening the floodgates?
SSST’s network was previously known as G60 Starlink, referencing a major cross-country highway in China and the project’s intent to imitate SpaceX’s broadband service.
Thousand Sails may eventually consist of more than 14,000 satellites, but like other Internet megaconstellations, the size of the fleet will likely grow at a rate commensurate with demand. It will take many years for SSST to deploy a 14,000-satellite constellation, if it ever does. SpaceX has rolled out several generations of Starlink satellites to offer new services and more capacity to meet customer uptake.
Chinese officials have released few details about the Qianfan satellites. But the project’s backers have said the spacecraft has a “standardized and modular” flat-panel design. “It meets the needs of stacking multiple satellites with one rocket,” said Shanghai Gesi Aerospace Technology, a joint venture set up by SSST and the Chinese Academy of Sciences to oversee manufacturing of Qianfan satellites.
This sounds a lot like the design of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, which are flat-packed for launch on Falcon 9 rockets. SpaceX pioneered this way of launching and deploying large numbers of satellites. The approach used for Starlink, and apparently for Qianfan, streamlines the integration of multiple satellites with their launcher on the ground. It also simplifies their separation from the rocket once in orbit.
The new Qianfan satellite factory in Shanghai can produce up to 300 spacecraft per year, project officials said in December. Officials previously said the first 108 satellites for the Thousand Sails constellation would launch this year.
SSST announced in February it had raised more than $900 million from Chinese state-backed investment funds, Shanghai’s municipal government, and sources of venture capital. SSST’s origin is linked to a Chinese joint venture with a Germany-based company called KLEO Connect, which intended to develop a smaller constellation of low-Earth orbit satellites for data relay services.
China launched four technology demonstration satellites, purportedly related to the KLEO Connect venture, to test telecom hardware and electric propulsion systems in orbit. The joint venture fell apart with a flurry of lawsuits, and the German government last year blocked a complete takeover of KLEO Connect by its Chinese investors.
Now, SSST is going it alone with the Thousand Sails network. It has rapidly scaled up satellite manufacturing capacity in Shanghai. But outside of Starlink, companies with ideas for megaconstellations have run into serious headwinds.
OneWeb filed for bankruptcy in 2020 before eventually launching its entire first-generation network of 633 Internet satellites. Amazon has pushed back the full-scale deployment of its Project Kuiper megaconstellation, and the launch of the first operational Kuiper Internet satellites may be delayed again to 2025. The future of the European Union’s IRIS² satellite Internet network is in doubt after disagreements among European governments on funding the project.
The Thousand Sails constellation is less well-known than another planned Chinese satellite Internet network known as Guowang, or “national network,” which is supported by China’s central government. Guowang is owned by a state-backed company called SatNet, and its architecture will consist of 13,000 satellites. However, China has not yet launched any spacecraft for the Guowang project.
It’s unclear if the Thousand Sails network and the Guowang constellation will be direct competitors. They could be geared to different segments of the broadband market. In either case, China’s restrictive Internet policies with terrestrial networks will likely spill over into the satellite segment.
Chinese officials recognize the military utility of satellite Internet services like Starlink, which has supported Ukrainian military forces fighting Russian troops since 2022. A homegrown Starlink-like service would, no doubt, prove useful for China’s military.
Alongside potential domestic civilian users, China could use its satellite Internet networks as a diplomatic tool to build on existing partnerships between the Chinese government and developing countries. This could “lead to a leapfrogging moment, where African countries opt for the Chinese Internet constellation over Western providers due to the fact that much of their infrastructure is already Chinese-built,” the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think tank, wrote in a report last year.
While there are open questions about how China will use its satellite megaconstellations, their deployment will require a significant increase in the country’s launch capacity, driving the development of new commercial rockets, including reusable boosters, to lower costs and increase their flight rate.
Enlarge/ Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is lifted to be placed atop an Atlas V rocket for its first crewed launch.
United Launch Alliance
NASA is planning to significantly delay the launch of the Crew 9 mission to the International Space Station due to ongoing concerns about the Starliner spacecraft currently attached to the station.
While the space agency has not said anything publicly, sources say NASA should announce the decision this week. Officials are contemplating moving the Crew-9 mission from its current date of August 18 to September 24, a significant slip.
Nominally, this Crew Dragon mission will carry NASA astronauts Zena Cardman, spacecraft commander; Nick Hague, pilot; and Stephanie Wilson, mission specialist; as well as Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexander Gorbunov, for a six-month journey to the space station. However, NASA has been considering alternatives to the crew lineup—possibly launching with two astronauts instead of four—due to ongoing discussions about the viability of Starliner to safely return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to Earth.
As of late last week, NASA still had not decided whether the Starliner vehicle, which is built and operated by Boeing, should be used to fly its two crew members home. During its launch and ascent to the space station two months ago, five small thrusters on the Starliner spacecraft failed. After extensive ground testing of the thrusters, as well as some brief in-space firings, NASA had planned to make a decision last week on whether to return Starliner with crew. However, a Flight Readiness Review planned for last Thursday was delayed after internal disagreements at NASA about the safety of Starliner.
At issue is the performance of the small reaction control system thrusters in proximity to the space station. If the right combination of them fail before Starliner has moved sufficiently far from the station, Starliner could become uncontrollable and collide with the space station. The thrusters are also needed later in the flight back to Earth to set up the critical de-orbit burn and entry in Earth’s atmosphere.
Software struggles
NASA has quietly been studying the possibility of crew returning in a Dragon for more than a month. As NASA and Boeing engineers have yet to identify a root cause of the thruster failure, the possibility of Wilmore and Williams returning on a Dragon spacecraft has increased in the last 10 days. NASA has consistently said that ‘crew safety’ will be its No. 1 priority in deciding how to proceed.
The Crew 9 delay is relevant to the Starliner dilemma for a couple of reasons. One, it gives NASA more time to determine the flight-worthiness of Starliner. However, there is also another surprising reason for the delay—the need to update Starliner’s flight software. Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.
At first blush, this seems absurd. After all, Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test 2 mission in May 2022 was a fully automated test of the Starliner vehicle. During this mission, the spacecraft flew up to the space station without crew on board and then returned to Earth six days later. Although the 2022 flight test was completed by a different Starliner vehicle, it clearly demonstrated the ability of the program’s flight software to autonomously dock and return to Earth. Boeing did not respond to a media query about why this capability was removed for the crew flight test.
Welcome to Edition 7.05 of the Rocket Report! The Federal Aviation Administration grounded SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket for 15 days after a rare failure of its upper stage earlier this month. The FAA gave the green light for Falcon 9 to return to flight July 25, and within a couple of days, SpaceX successfully launched three missions from three launch pads. There’s a lot on Falcon 9’s to-do list, so we expect SpaceX to quickly return to form with several flights per week.
As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Big delay for a reusable rocket testbed. The French space agency, CNES, has revealed that the inaugural test flight of its Callisto reusable rocket demonstrator will not take place until late 2025 or early 2026, European Spaceflight reports. CNES unveiled an updated website for the Callisto rocket program earlier this month, showing the test rocket has been delayed from a debut launch later this year to until late 2025 or early 2026. The Callisto rocket is designed to test techniques and technologies required for reusable rockets, such as vertical takeoff and vertical landing, with suborbital flights from the Guiana Space Center in South America.
Cooperative action … Callisto, which stands for Cooperative Action Leading to Launcher Innovation in Stage Toss-back Operations, is a joint project between CNES, German space agency DLR, and JAXA, the Japanese space agency. It will stand 14 meters (46 feet) tall and weigh about 4 metric tons (8,800 pounds), with an engine supplied by Japan. Callisto is one of several test projects in Europe aiming to pave the way for a future reusable rocket. (submitted by EllPeaTea and Ken the Bin)
The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s space reporting is to sign up for his newsletter, we’ll collect his stories in your inbox.
Small step for Themis. Another European project established to demonstrate reusable rocket tech is making slow progress toward a first flight. The Themis project, funded by the European Space Agency, is similar in purpose to the Callisto testbed discussed above. This week, the German aerospace manufacturing company MT Aerospace announced it has begun testing a demonstrator of the landing legs that will be used aboard the Themis reusable booster, European Spaceflight reports. The landing legs for Themis are made of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic composites, and the initial test demonstrated good deployment and showed it would withstand the impact energy of landing.
Also delayed … Like Callisto, Themis is facing delays in getting to the launch pad. ArianeGroup, the ESA-selected Themis prime contractor, had been expected to conduct an initial hop test of the demonstrator before the end of 2024. However, officials have announced the initial hop tests won’t happen until sometime next year. The Themis booster is intended to eventually become the first stage booster for an orbital-class partially reusable rocket being developed by MaiaSpace, a subsidiary of ArianeGroup. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Falcon 9 is flying again. A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket returned to flight on July 27, barely two weeks after an upper stage failure ended a streak of more than 300 consecutive successful launches, Ars reports. By some measures this was an extremely routine mission—it was, after all, SpaceX’s 73rd launch of this calendar year. And like many other Falcon 9 launches this year, the “Starlink 10-9” mission carried 23 of the broadband Internet satellites into orbit. However, after a rare failure earlier this month, this particular Falcon 9 rocket was making a return-to-flight for the company and attempting to get the world’s most active booster back into service.
Best part is no part … The Falcon 9 successfully deployed its payload of Starlink satellites about an hour after lifting off from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Later in the weekend, SpaceX launched two more Starlink missions on Falcon 9 rockets from Florida and California, notching three flights in less than 28 hours. The launch failure on the previous Falcon 9 launch was caused by a liquid oxygen leak on the upper stage, which led to a “hard start” on the upper stage engine when it attempted to reignite in flight. Engineers and technicians were quickly able to pinpoint the cause of the leak, a crack in a “sense line” for a pressure sensor attached to the vehicle’s liquid oxygen system.
Atlas V’s NSSL era is over. United Launch Alliance delivered a classified US military payload to orbit Tuesday for the last time with an Atlas V rocket, ending the Pentagon’s use of Russian rocket engines as national security missions transition to all-American launchers, Ars reports. This was the 101st launch of an Atlas V rocket since its debut in 2002, and the 58th and final Atlas V mission with a US national security payload since 2007. The Atlas V is powered by an RD-180 main engine made in Russia, and with a little prodding from SpaceX (via a lawsuit) and Congress, the Pentagon started making moves to end its reliance on the RD-180 a decade ago.
Other options available … The RD-180 never failed on a National Security Space Launch (NSSL) mission using the Atlas V rocket, but its use became politically untenable after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which predated Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine eight years later. SpaceX began launching US military missions in 2018, and ULA debuted its new Vulcan rocket in January. Assuming a successful second test flight of Vulcan in September, ULA’s next-generation rocket has a good shot at launching its first national security mission by the end of the year. The Space Force’s policy is to maintain at least two independent launch vehicles capable of flying military payloads into orbit. Vulcan and SpaceX’s Falcon rocket family fulfill that requirement, so the military no longer needs the Atlas V. However, 15 more Atlas V rockets remain in ULA’s inventory for future commercial flights.
Crackdown at the Cape. While this week’s landmark launch of the Atlas V rocket is worthy of celebration, there’s a new ULA policy that deserves ridicule, Ars reports. Many of the spectacular photos of rocket launches shared on social media come from independent photographers, who often make little to no money working for an established media organization. Instead, they rely on sales of prints to recoup at least some of their expenses for gas, food, and camera equipment needed to capture these images, which often serve as free publicity for launch providers like ULA. Last month, ULA announced it will no longer permit these photographers to set up remote cameras at their launch pads if they sell their images independently. This new policy was in place for the Atlas V launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Tuesday morning.
But why? … “ULA will periodically confirm editorial publication for media participating in remote camera placement,” ULA stated in an email distributed to photographers last month. “If publication does not occur, or photos are sold outside of editorial purposes, privileges to place remote cameras may be revoked.” To the photographers who spend many hours preparing their equipment, waiting to set up and remove cameras, and persevering through scrubs and more, it seemed like a harsh judgment. And nobody knows why it happened. ULA has offered no public comment about the new policy, and the company did not respond to questions from Ars about the agreement.
Astroscale achieves a first in orbit. There are more than 2,000 mostly intact dead rockets circling the Earth, but until this year, no one ever launched a satellite to go see what one looked like after many years of tumbling around the planet, Ars reports. A Japanese company named Astroscale launched a small satellite in February to chase down the derelict upper stage from a Japanese H-IIA rocket. Astroscale’s ADRAS-J spacecraft arrived near the H-IIA upper stage in April, and the company announced this week that its satellite has now completed two 360-degree fly-arounds of the rocket. This is the first time a satellite has maneuvered around an actual piece of space junk, and it offers an unprecedented snapshot of how an abandoned rocket holds up to 15 years in the harsh environment of space.
Prepping for the future … Astroscale’s ADRAS-J mission is partially funded by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Astroscale and JAXA also have a contract for a follow-up mission named ADRAS-J2, which will attempt to link up with the same H-IIA rocket and steer it on a trajectory to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere. This would be the first demonstration of active debris removal, a concept pursued by Astroscale and other companies to help clear space junk out of low-Earth orbit.
An update on Ariane 6. The European Space Agency has released its first update on the results from the first flight of the Ariane 6 rocket since its launch July 9. Europe’s new flagship rocket had a mostly successful inaugural test flight. Its first stage, solid rocket boosters, and upper stage performed as expected for the first phase of the flight, delivering eight small satellites into an on-target orbit. The launch pad at the Guiana Space Center in South America also held up to the violent environment of launch, ESA said.
Still investigating … However, the final phase of the mission didn’t go according to plan. The upper stage’s Vinci engine was supposed to reignite for a third time on the test flight to deorbit the rocket, which would have released two small reentry capsules on technology demonstration missions to test heat shield technologies. This didn’t happen. An Auxiliary Propulsion Unit, which is a small engine to provide additional bursts of thrust and pressurize the upper stage’s propellant tanks, shut down shortly after startup ahead of the third burn of the primary Vinci engine. “This meant the Vinci engine’s third boost could not take place,” ESA said. “Analysis of the APU’s behavior is ongoing and further information will be made available as soon as possible, while the next task force update is expected in September.” (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Room to grow at Starbase. SpaceX has since launched Starship four times from its launch site in South Texas, known as Starbase, and is planning a fifth launch within the next two months, Ars reports. However, as it continues to test Starship and make plans for regular flights, SpaceX will need a higher flight rate. This is especially true as the company is unlikely to activate additional launch pads for Starship in Florida until at least 2026. To that end, SpaceX has asked the FAA for permission for up to 25 flights a year from South Texas, as well as the capability to land both the Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster stage back at the launch site.
The answer is probably yes … On Monday, the FAA signaled that it is inclined to grant this request. The agency released a draft assessment indicating that its extensive 2022 analysis of Starship launch activities on the environment, wildlife, local communities, and more was sufficient to account for SpaceX’s proposal for more launches. There is more to do for this conclusion to become official, including public meetings and a public comment period this month.
SpaceX eyes Australia. SpaceX is in talks with US and Australian officials to land and recover one of its Starship rockets off Australia’s coast, a possible first step toward a bigger presence for Elon Musk’s company in the region as the two countries bolster security ties, Reuters reports. At the end of SpaceX’s fourth Starship test flight in June, the rocket made a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean hundreds of miles off the northwest coast of Australia. The discussions now underway are focused on the possibility of towing a future Starship vehicle from its splashdown point in the ocean to a port in Australia, where SpaceX engineers could inspect it and learn more about how it performed.
Eventually, it’ll come back to land … On the next Starship flight, currently planned for no earlier than late August, SpaceX plans to attempt to recover Starship’s giant Super Heavy booster using catch arms on the launch pad tower in Texas. On Sunday, Elon Musk told SpaceX and Tesla enthusiasts at an event called the “X Takeover” that it will take a few more flights for engineers to get comfortable returning the Starship itself to a landing onshore. “We want to be really confident that the ship heat shield is super robust and lands at the exact right location,” he said. “So before we try to bring the ship back to the launch site, we probably want to have at least three successful landings of the ship [at sea].” (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Next three launches
August 2: Electron | “Owl for One, One for Owl” | Mahia Peninsula, New Zealand | 16: 39 UTC
August 3: Falcon 9 | NG-21 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 15: 28 UTC
August 4: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-1 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 07: 00 UTC
Enlarge/ Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is seen docked at the International Space Station on June 13.
It has now been eight weeks since Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft launched into orbit on an Atlas V rocket, bound for the International Space Station. At the time NASA officials said the two crew members, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, could return to Earth as soon as June 14, just eight days later.
Yes, there had been some problems on Starliner’s ride to the space station that involved helium leaks and failing thrusters. But officials said they were relatively minor and sought to downplay them. “Those are pretty small, really, issues to deal with,” Mark Nappi, vice president and manager of Boeing’s Commercial Crew Program, said during a post-docking news conference. “We’ll figure them out for the next mission. I don’t see these as significant at all.”
But days turned to weeks, and weeks turned to months as NASA and Boeing continued to study the two technical problems. Of these issues, the more pressing concern was the failure of multiple reaction control system thrusters that are essential to steering Starliner during its departure from the space station and setting up a critical engine burn to enter Earth’s atmosphere.
In the last few weeks, ground teams from NASA and Boeing completed testing of a thruster on a test stand at White Sands, New Mexico. Then, last weekend, Boeing and NASA fired the spacecraft’s thrusters in orbit to check their performance while docked at the space station. NASA has said preliminary results from these tests were helpful.
Dragon becomes a real option
One week ago, the last time NASA officials spoke to the media, the agency’s program manager for commercial crew, Steve Stich, would not be drawn into discussing what would happen should NASA conclude that Starliner’s thrusters were not reliable enough for the return journey to Earth.
“Our prime option is to complete the mission,” Stich said one week ago. “There are a lot of good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner. Starliner was designed, as a spacecraft, to have the crew in the cockpit.”
For a long time, it seemed almost certain that the astronauts would return to Earth inside Starliner. However, there has been a lot of recent activity at NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX that suggests that Wilmore and Williams could come home aboard a Crew Dragon spacecraft rather than Starliner. Due to the critical importance of this mission, Ars is sharing what we know as of Thursday afternoon.
One informed source said it was greater than a 50-50 chance that the crew would come back on Dragon. Another source said it was significantly more likely than not they would. To be clear, NASA has not made a final decision. This probably will not happen until at least next week. It is likely that Jim Free, NASA’s associate administrator, will make the call.
Asked if it was now more likely than not that Starliner’s crew would return on Dragon, NASA spokesperson Josh Finch told Ars on Thursday evening, ” NASA is evaluating all options for the return of agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station as safely as possible. No decisions have been made and the agency will continue to provide updates on its planning.”
Enlarge/ Astroscale’s ADRAS-J spacecraft captured these views of the H-IIA rocket upper stage on July 15.
There are more than 2,000 mostly intact dead rockets circling the Earth, but until this year, no one ever launched a satellite to go see what one looked like after many years of tumbling around the planet.
In February, a Japanese company named Astroscale sent a small satellite into low-Earth orbit on top of a Rocket Lab launcher. A couple of months later, Astroscale’s ADRAS-J (Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan) spacecraft completed its pursuit of a Japanese rocket stuck in orbit for more than 15 years.
ADRAS-J photographed the upper stage of an H-IIA rocket from a range of several hundred meters and then backed away. This was the first publicly released image of space debris captured from another spacecraft using rendezvous and proximity operations.
Since then, Astroscale has pulled off more complex maneuvers around the H-IIA upper stage, which hasn’t been controlled since it deployed a Japanese climate research satellite in January 2009. Astroscale attempted to complete a 360-degree fly-around of the H-IIA rocket last month, but the spacecraft triggered an autonomous abort one-third through the maneuver after detecting an attitude anomaly.
ADRAS-J flew away from the H-IIA rocket for several weeks. After engineers determined the cause of the glitch that triggered the abort, ADRAS-J fired thrusters to approach the upper stage again this month. The ADRAS-J spacecraft is about the size of a kitchen oven, while the H-IIA rocket it’s visiting is nearly the size of a city bus.
Astroscale’s satellite completed two fly-around maneuvers of the H-IIA upper stage on July 15 and 16, examining all sides of the rocket as it soared more than 350 miles (560 kilometers) above the planet. Engineers also wanted to measure the upper stage’s spin rate and spin axis. At first glance, the upper stage appears remarkably similar to the way it looked when it launched. Despite exposure to the harsh conditions of space, the rocket’s outer skin remains covered in orange foam insulation, and the engine nozzle still shines as if it were new.
ADRAS-J autonomously maneuvered around the rocket at a distance of about 50 meters (164 feet), using navigation data from a light detection and ranging sensor and Astroscale’s custom-developed guidance algorithms to control its position as the vehicles moved around Earth at nearly 4.7 miles per second (7.6 kilometers per second). This is the crux of the challenge for ADRAS-J because the rocket is unpowered and unable to hold position. The upper stage also lacks laser reflectors and targets that would aid an approaching spacecraft.
This is a first
These types of complex maneuvers, known as rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO), are common for crew and cargo spacecraft around the International Space Station. Other commercial satellites have demonstrated formation-flying and even docking with a spacecraft that wasn’t designed to connect with another vehicle in orbit.
Military satellites from the United States, Russia, and China also have RPO capabilities, but as far as we know, these spacecraft have only maneuvered in ultra-close range around so-called “cooperative” objects designed to receive them. In 2003, the Air Force Research Laboratory launched a small satellite named XSS-10 to inspect the upper stage of a Delta II rocket in orbit, but it had a head start. XSS-10 maneuvered around the same rocket that deployed it, rather than pursuing a separate target.
Enlarge/ Muscle atrophy is a known hazard of spending time on the International Space Station.
Muscle-on-chip systems are three-dimensional human muscle cell bundles cultured on collagen scaffolds. A Stanford University research team sent some of these systems to the International Space Station to study the muscle atrophy commonly observed in astronauts.
It turns out that space triggers processes in human muscles that eerily resemble something we know very well: getting old. “We learned that microgravity mimics some of the qualities of accelerated aging,” said Ngan F. Huang, an associate professor at Stanford who led the study.
Space-borne bioconstructs
“This work originates from our lab’s expertise in regenerative medicine and tissue engineering. We received funding to do a tissue engineering experiment on the ISS, which really helped us embark on this journey, and became curious how microgravity affects human health,” said Huang. So her team got busy designing the research equipment needed to work onboard the space station. The first step was building the muscle-on-chip systems.
“A lot of what was known about how space affects muscles was gathered through studying the astronauts or studying animals like mice put in microgravity for research purposes,” Huang said. “In some cases, there were also in vitro cultured cells on a Petri dish—something very basic. We wanted to have something more structurally complex.” Her team developed a muscle-on-chip platform in which human myotubes, cells that organize into long parallel bundles that eventually become muscle fibers in a living organism, were grown on collagen scaffolds. The goal was to make the samples emulate real muscles better. But that came with a challenge: keeping them alive on the ISS.
“When we grow cells on Earth, we pour the medium—basically a liquid with nutrients that allow the cells to grow—over the cells, and everything is fine,” Huang said. “But in space, in the absence of gravity, we needed a closed, leak-proof, tightly sealed chamber. The medium was sloshed around in there.”
Oxygen and carbon dioxide levels were maintained with permeable membranes. Changing the medium was a complicated procedure involving syringes and small custom-designed ports. But getting all this gadgetry up and running was worth it in the end.
Genes of atrophy
Huang’s team had two sets of muscle-on-chip systems: one on the ground and one on the ISS. The idea of the study was to compare the genes that were upregulated or downregulated in each sample set. It turned out that many genes associated with aging saw their activity increase in microgravity conditions.
This result was confirmed when the team analyzed the medium that was taken off after the cells had grown in it. “The goal was to identify proteins released by the cells that were associated with microgravity. Among those, the most notable was the GDF15, which is relevant to different diseases, particularly mitochondrial dysfunction or senescence,” said Huang.
Overall, the condition of cells on the ISS was somewhat similar to sarcopenia, an age-related muscle loss disease. “There were some similarities, but also a lot of differences. The reason we didn’t make sarcopenia the main focus of this study is that we know our muscle-on-chip system is a model. It’s mostly muscle cells on a scaffold. It doesn’t have blood vessels or nerves. Comparing that to clinical, real muscle samples is a bit tricky, as it is not comparing apples to apples,” said Huang.
Nevertheless, her team went on to use their ISS muscle-on-chip samples to conduct proof-of-concept drug screening tests. Drugs they tested included those used to treat sarcopenia, among other conditions.
Space drugs
“One of the drugs we tested was the [protein] IGF 1, which is a growth factor naturally found in the body in different tissues, especially in muscles. When there is an injury, IGF 1 activates within a body to initiate muscle regeneration. Also, IGF 1 tend to be declined in aging muscles,” said Huang. The second drug tested was 15-PGDH-i, a relatively new inhibitor of enzymes that hinder the process of muscle regeneration. Used on the muscles-on-chip on the ISS, the drugs partially reduced some of the microgravity-related effects.
“One of the limitations of this work was that on the ISS, the microgravity is also accompanied by other factors, such as ionizing radiation, and it is hard to dissociate one from the other,” said Huang. It’s still unclear if the effects observed in the ISS samples were there due to radiation, the lack of gravity, both, or some additional factor. Huang’s team plans to do similar experiments on Earth in simulated microgravity conditions. “With some of the specialized equipment we recently acquired, it is possible to look at just the effects of microgravity,” Huang said. Those experiments are aimed at testing a wider range of drugs.
“The reason we do this drug screening is to develop drugs that could either be taken preemptively or during the flight to counteract muscle atrophy. It would probably be more feasible, lighter, and cheaper than doing artificial gravity concepts,” Huang said. The most promising candidate drugs selected in these ground experiments will be tested on Huang’s muscle-on-chip systems onboard the ISS in 2025.
Enlarge/ A rendering of NASA’s proposed lunar gateway.
NASA
Do you remember the Lunar Gateway? You could be forgiven if not, as the program continues to be tossed around by NASA planners, and it is still not entirely clear what purpose the lunar space station is supposed to serve.
The Gateway—a small space station that will fly in a halo orbit around the Moon and spend most of its time far from the lunar surface—was initially supposed to launch in 2022. That obviously did not happen, and now, according to a new report from the US Government Accountability Office, the space agency does not expect the launch of the initial elements of the Gateway until at least December 2027. The baseline cost estimate is $5.3 billion.
NASA’s present plans contemplate using the Gateway as part of the Artemis IV mission, presently scheduled for September 2028. Unfortunately, the Gateway’s current launch target is already three months later than needed to support Artemis IV, the second mission to land humans on the Moon. But that’s OK. There are a lot of other moving parts for this mission, so a launch any time this decade would be a win.
The report includes a helpful cartoon to explain the complicated sequence that needs to happen for Gateway to be involved in the Artemis IV mission:
Launch of the initial segments of the Gateway, a power and propulsion module, and a habitation module, to a halo orbit around the Moon
Launch of a SpaceX Dragon XL vehicle to bring supplies to the Gateway
Launch of multiple SpaceX Starships to fuel a Lunar Starship, which will then fly to and dock with the Gateway
Launch of a NASA Space Launch System rocket carrying four astronauts inside an Orion spacecraft as well as another Gateway module
After launch, Orion separates from the rocket and docks with this module, the International Habitat
Orion tugs the International Habitat to the Gateway and docks; the crew exits onto Gateway
Two crew members board the Lunar Starship and go down to the Moon for six days
Starship flies back to the Gateway, and the four astronauts return to Earth inside Orion.
How the Artemis IV mission will (probably) take place.
US GAO
In a rather understated manner, the report notes that this plan is fairly complex and faces some serious schedule risks.
“This mission will be complex because NASA will need to coordinate across seven NASA programs, multiple contractors that support those programs, and international partners to execute the mission,” the report states. “It will also be the first launch of an upgraded version of the Space Launch System rocket.”
Developmental difficulties
The report also finds that the Gateway program is running into some pretty serious technical difficulties. One involves a defective network chip that facilitates communication throughout the lunar space station. Its failure could cause myriad problems onboard the Gateway.
“For example, these defects could lead the flight computers to unexpectedly restart,” the report states. “If the network is not functioning properly, it could result in loss of control of the Gateway. Program officials are also concerned that they might identify more defects with the communication network, based on the number found already.”
Another risk involves something called “stack controllability.” This essentially means that because SpaceX’s Lunar Starship is so much more massive than the Gateway, when it is docked to the space station, the Gateway’s power and propulsion element (PPE) will not be able to maintain a proper orientation of the entire stack.
“Program officials estimate that the mass of the lunar lander Starship is approximately 18 times greater than the value NASA used to develop the PPE’s controllability parameters,” the report states. “According to NASA’s system engineering guidance, late requirements and design changes can lead to cost growth and schedule delays.”
The report also has some sobering conclusions about the potential utility of the Lunar Gateway for Mars missions. (In the past, NASA officials have spoken about the Gateway as a staging area for spacecraft and propellant for human missions to the surface of Mars.) However, the “stack controllability” issue poses a serious constraint to hosting large Mars transit vehicles. Moreover, the planned 15-year lifetime of the Gateway may not be long enough to sustain Mars missions.
“The Gateway could have exceeded its planned 15-year on-orbit life as early as 2042 when crewed missions to Mars are potentially just beginning,” the report states.
All in all, the report seems to suggest that the Gateway is way behind schedule and is of limited use to lunar and Mars landings. The report suggests the Gateway will be complex to undertake at the very same time NASA is attempting to establish a lunar surface program. But other than that, everything is going great.
