Science

the-surprise-is-not-that-boeing-lost-commercial-crew-but-that-it-finished-at-all

The surprise is not that Boeing lost commercial crew but that it finished at all

Boeing really is going —

“The structural inefficiency was a huge deal.”

Boeing's Starliner spacecraft is lifted to be placed atop an Atlas V rocket for its first crewed launch.

Enlarge / Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is lifted to be placed atop an Atlas V rocket for its first crewed launch.

United Launch Alliance

NASA’s senior leaders in human spaceflight gathered for a momentous meeting at the agency’s headquarters in Washington, DC, almost exactly ten years ago.

These were the people who, for decades, had developed and flown the Space Shuttle. They oversaw the construction of the International Space Station. Now, with the shuttle’s retirement, these princely figures in the human spaceflight community were tasked with selecting a replacement vehicle to send astronauts to the orbiting laboratory.

Boeing was the easy favorite. The majority of engineers and other participants in the meeting argued that Boeing alone should win a contract worth billions of dollars to develop a crew capsule. Only toward the end did a few voices speak up in favor of a second contender, SpaceX. At the meeting’s conclusion, NASA’s chief of human spaceflight at the time, William Gerstenmaier, decided to hold off on making a final decision.

A few months later, NASA publicly announced its choice. Boeing would receive $4.2 billion to develop a “commercial crew” transportation system, and SpaceX would get $2.6 billion. It was not a total victory for Boeing, which had lobbied hard to win all of the funding. But the company still walked away with nearly two-thirds of the money and the widespread presumption that it would easily beat SpaceX to the space station.

The sense of triumph would prove to be fleeting. Boeing decisively lost the commercial crew space race, and it proved to be a very costly affair.

With Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft finally due to take flight this week with astronauts on board, we know the extent of the loss, both in time and money. Dragon first carried people to the space station nearly four years ago. In that span, the Crew Dragon vehicle has flown thirteen public and private missions to orbit. Because of this success, Dragon will end up flying 14 operational missions to the station for NASA, earning a tidy fee each time, compared to just six for Starliner. Through last year, Boeing has taken $1.5 billion in charges due to delays and overruns with its spacecraft development.

So what happened? How did Boeing, the gold standard in human spaceflight for decades, fall so far behind on crew? This story, based largely on interviews with unnamed current and former employees of Boeing and contractors who worked on Starliner, attempts to provide some answers.

The early days

When the contracts were awarded, SpaceX had the benefit of working with NASA to develop a cargo variant of Dragon, which by 2014 was flying regular missions to the space station. But the company had no experience with human spaceflight. Boeing, by contrast, had decades of spaceflight experience, but it had to start from scratch with Starliner.

Each faced a deeper cultural challenge. A decade ago, SpaceX was deep into several major projects, including developing a new version of the Falcon 9 rocket, flying more frequently, experimenting with landing and reuse, and doing cargo supply missions. This new contract meant more money but a lot more work. A NASA engineer who worked closely with both SpaceX and Boeing in this time frame recalls visiting SpaceX and the atmosphere being something like a frenzied graduate school, where all of the employees were being pulled in different directions. Getting engineers to focus on Crew Dragon was difficult.

But at least SpaceX was in its natural environment. Boeing’s space division had never won a large fixed-price contract. Its leaders were used to operating in a cost-plus environment, in which Boeing could bill the government for all of its expenses and earn a fee. Cost overruns and delays were not the company’s problem—they were NASA’s. Now Boeing had to deliver a flyable spacecraft for a firm, fixed price.

Boeing struggled to adjust to this environment. When it came to complicated space projects, Boeing was used to spending other people’s money. Now, every penny spent on Starliner meant one less penny in profit (or, ultimately, greater losses). This meant that Boeing allocated fewer resources to Starliner than it needed to thrive.

“The difference between the two company’s cultures, design philosophies, and decision-making structures allowed SpaceX to excel in a fixed-price environment, where Boeing stumbled, even after receiving significantly more funding,” said Lori Garver in an interview. She was deputy administrator of NASA from 2009 to 2013 during the formative years of the commercial crew program and is the author of Escaping Gravity.

So Boeing faced financial pressure from the beginning. At the same time, it was confronting major technical challenges. Building a human spacecraft is very difficult. Some of the biggest hurdles would be flight software and propulsion.

The surprise is not that Boeing lost commercial crew but that it finished at all Read More »

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Mayans burned and buried dead political regimes

Winning isn’t everything! —

After burning, the remains were dumped in construction fill.

A long, rectangular stone building.

Enlarge / Mayans built impressive structures and occasionally put interesting items in the construction fill.

As civilizations evolve, so do the political regimes that govern them. But the transition from one era to another is not always quiet. Some ancient Mayan rulers made a very fiery public statement about who was in charge.

When archaeologists dug up the burned fragments of royal bodies and artifacts at the Mayan archaeological site of Ucanal in Guatemala, they realized they were looking at the last remnants of a fallen regime. There was no scorching on the walls of the structure they were found beneath. This could have only meant that the remains (which had already been in their tombs a hundred years) were consumed by flames in one place and buried in another. But why?

The team of archaeologists, led by Christina T. Halperin of the University of Montreal, think this was the doing of a new leader who wanted to annihilate all traces of the old regime. He couldn’t just burn them. He also had to bury them where they would be forgotten.

Into the fire

While there is other evidence of Mayans burning bodies and objects from old regimes, a ritual known as och-i k’ak’ t-u-muk-il (“the fire entered his/her tomb”), this is the first time burnt royal remains have been discovered somewhere other than their original tomb. They were found underneath construction fill at the base of a temple where the upper parts are thought to have been made from materials that had not lasted long.

Radiocarbon dating revealed these remains were burned around the same time as the ascent of the ruler Papmalil, who assumed the title of ochk’in kaloomte’ or “western overlord,” suggesting he may have been foreign. Inscriptions of his name were seen at the same site where the burnt fragments were unearthed. Papmalil’s rise meant the fall of the K’anwitznal dynasty—the one that the bones and ornaments most likely belonged to. It also marked the start of a period of great prosperity.

“Papmalil’s rule was not only seminal because of his possible foreign origins—perhaps breaking the succession of ruling dynasts at the site—but also because his rule shifted political dynamics in the southern Maya Lowlands,” the archeologists said in a study recently published in the journal Antiquity.

The overthrowing of the K’anwitznal dynasty is evidenced on the wall of a temple at Caracol, a site not far from Ucanal. An engraving on a Caracol altar shows a captive K’anwitzanl ruler in bondage. Other engravings made only two decades later depict Papmalil as the ruling figure, and the way he is pictured giving gifts to other kings is a testament to his regime’s increased strength in foreign relations.

Ashes to ashes

The archaeological team sees Papmalil’s accession as a pivotal point after which the city of Ucanal would go on to thrive. As other rulers had done before him, he apparently wanted to dismantle the old regime and make the fall of the K’anwitznal rulers known to everyone. Though the location of the K’anwitznal tombs is unknown, the team used a map of the site they had already made to determine that the temple where the burnt remains were found stood in what was once a public plaza.

Halperin thinks that the bones of these royals and the lavish ornaments the royals were buried with were believed to have had some sort of life force or spirit that needed to be conquered before the new regime would be secure. It was evident, because of shrinkage, warping, and discoloration, that the human bones, which belonged to four individuals (three of which were determined to be male), had been burned, suggesting temperatures of at least 800° C (1,472° F). Fractures and fissures on the jade and greenstone ornaments were also signs of burning at high temperatures.

“Because the fire-burning event itself had the potential to be highly ceremonial, public, and charged with emotion, it could dramatically mark the dismantling of an ancient regime,” the team said in the same study.

To the archaeologists, there is almost no doubt that the burning of the bones and artifacts found at the Ucanal site was an act of desecration, even though the location where they had been thrown into the fire is still a mystery. They’re convinced by the way that the remains were treated no differently than construction debris, deposited at the base of a temple during construction.

Other findings from cremations have shown a level of reverence for the bones of deposed rulers and dynasties. At another site that Halperin also investigated, the cremated bones of a queen were arranged carefully along with her jewelry. That was apparently not enough for Papmalil. Even today, some leaders just feel the need to be heard more loudly than others.

Antiquity, 2024.  DOI: 10.15184/aqy.2024.38

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two-seconds-of-hope-for-fusion-power

Two seconds of hope for fusion power

image of a person in protective clothing, standing in a circular area with lots of mirrored metal panels.

Enlarge / The interior or the DIII-D tokamak.

Using nuclear fusion, the process that powers the stars, to produce electricity on Earth has famously been 30 years away for more than 70 years. But now, a breakthrough experiment done at the DIII-D National Fusion Facility in San Diego may finally push nuclear fusion power plants to be roughly 29 years away.

Nuclear fusion ceiling

The DIII-D facility is run by General Atomics for the Department of Energy. It includes an experimental tokamak, a donut-shaped nuclear fusion device that works by trapping astonishingly hot plasma in very strong, toroidal magnetic fields. Tokamaks, compared to other fusion reactor designs like stellarators, are the furthest along in their development; ITER, the world’s first power-plant-size fusion device now under construction in France, is scheduled to run its first tests with plasma in December 2025.

But tokamaks have always had some issues. Back in 1988, Martin Greenwald, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology expert on plasma physics, proposed an equation that described an apparent limit on how dense plasma could get in tokamaks. He argued that maximum attainable density is dictated by the minor radius of a tokamak and the current induced in the plasma to maintain magnetic stability. Going beyond that limit was supposed to make the magnets incapable of holding the plasma, heated up to north of 150 million degrees Celsius away from the walls of the machine.

Since the power output of a tokamak was proportional to the square of fuel density, this limit didn’t bode well for fusion power plants. A commercial reactor would either need to be huge or drive absurdly high plasma currents. The former meant it would be catastrophically expensive to build, and the latter that it would be expensive to run.

But there has been hope. Since then, many research teams working at different tokamak facilities—including the Joint European Torus (JET) in Britain or ASDEX Upgrade in Germany—achieved plasma densities exceeding the Greenwald limit. In response, Martin Greenwald himself revised his claim a bit, saying that the limit applied not to the line averaged plasma density in the entire reactor but only to the portion of the plasma occupying less than 10 percent of the radius near the reactor’s wall.

While the actual density numbers were pushed a little, the working principle behind the Greenwald limit still held—when the plasma density went up above the Greenwald line, the quality of confinement went down. “The major phenomenon people discovered in the high-density experiments was reduced energy confinement when plasma density was increased,” said Siye Ding, a researcher at General Atomics working at the DIII-D National Fusion Facility.

To use fusion for energy production, we need both high density and high confinement. “For the first time, we have experimentally demonstrated how to resolve this problem,” said Ding.

Self-organizing puzzle

“When you make a plasma in your reactor, there is a whole combination of parameters,” explained Andrea Garofalo, a sciences manager at General Atomics who worked on the experiment at DIII-D. “What is the plasma current, what is the toroidal field, what is the external heating versus time. Combinations of such parameters can vary in tokamaks—you can have plasma current higher or lower, you can start the heating early, you can start it later. All this comprises what we call a scenario.”

“We’re talking about optimizing the waveforms of power, fueling, etc. to achieve the right configuration,” he added.

The configuration he and his colleagues achieved (called the high-poloidal-beta scenario) worked like a charm.

People working on nuclear fusion use various metrics that integrate multiple parameters into simple numbers to make it easier to compare the performance of different fusion experiments. The H98Y metric tracks the quality of confinement. The high confinement mode that will be used at ITER has H98Y equal to 1. Plasma density is often denoted as FGR—the Greenwald fraction—which describes how far below or above the Greenwald limit plasma density can get. FGR equal to 1 means density exactly at the Greenwald limit.

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Glow of an exoplanet may be from starlight reflecting off liquid iron

For all the glory —

A phenomenon called a “glory” may be happening on a hellishly hot giant planet.

Image of a planet on a dark background, with an iridescent circle on the right side of the planet.

Enlarge / Artist impression of a glory on exoplanet WASP-76b.

Do rainbows exist on distant worlds? Many phenomena that happen on Earth—such as rain, hurricanes, and auroras—also occur on other planets in our Solar System if the conditions are right. Now we have evidence from outside our Solar System that one particularly strange exoplanet might even be displaying something close to a rainbow.

Appearing in the sky as a halo of colors, a phenomenon called a “glory” occurs when light hits clouds made up of a homogeneous substance in the form of spherical droplets. It might be the explanation for a mystery regarding observations of exoplanet WASP-76B. This planet, a scorching gas giant that experiences molten iron rain, has also been observed to have more light on its eastern terminator (a line used to separate the day side from the night side) than its western terminator. Why was there more light on one side of the planet?

After observing it with the CHEOPS space telescope, then combining that with previous observations from Hubble, Spitzer, and TESS, a team of researchers from ESA and the University of Bern in Switzerland now think that the most likely reason for the extra light is a glory.

Seeing the light

Over three years, CHEOPS made 23 observations of WASP-76B in both visible and infrared light. These included phase curves, transits, and secondary eclipses. Phase curves are continuous observations that track a planet’s complete revolution and show changes in its phase or the part of its illuminated side that is facing the telescope. The telescope may see more or less of that side as the planet orbits its star. Phase curves can determine the change in the total brightness of the planet and star as the planet orbits.

Secondary eclipses happen when a planet passes behind its host star and is eclipsed by it. The light seen during such an eclipse can later be compared with the total light both before and after the occultation to give us a sense of the light that’s reflected off the planet. Hot Jupiters like WASP-76B are commonly observed through secondary eclipses.

Phase-curve observations can continue while the planet is eclipsing its star. While it was observing the phase curve of WASP-76B, CHEOPS saw a pre-eclipse excess of light on its night side. This had also been seen in TESS phase-curve and secondary-eclipse observations that had been made earlier.

End of the rainbow?

An advantage of WASP-76b is that it is an ultra-hot Jupiter, so at least its day side does not have the clouds and hazes that often obscure the atmospheres of cooler hot Jupiters. This makes atmospheric emissions much easier to detect. That we had already observed an asymmetry in iron content between the day-side and night-side terminators, discovered in a previous study, made the planet especially intriguing. There was not much gaseous iron in the upper atmosphere of the day-side limb compared to that of the night-side limb. This is probably because it rains iron on the day side of WASP-76b, which then condenses into clouds of iron on the night side.

Observations from Hubble suggested that thermal inversion—when the air near the surface of a planet begins cooling—was occurring on the night side. Cooling on that side would cause iron that had previously condensed into clouds, rained down onto the day side, and then evaporated from the intense heat to condense again. Drops of liquid iron can then form clouds.

These clouds are critical since light from the host star, reflecting off these drops in those clouds, can create the effect of a glory.

“Explaining the observation with the glory effect would require spherical droplets of highly reflective, spherically shaped aerosols and clouds on the planet’s eastern hemisphere,” the researchers said in a paper recently published in Astronomy & Astrophysics.

Glories have been seen off Earth before. They are also known to form in the clouds of Venus. Just like WASP-76b, more pre-eclipse light was observed on Venus, so while a glory is all but definite for the exoplanet, future observations with a more powerful telescope could help determine how similar the phenomenon on WASP-76 is to that on Venus. If they match, this will be the first glory ever observed on an exoplanet.

If future research figures out a definite way to tell whether this is really a glory, these phenomena could tell us more about the atmospheric makeup of exoplanets, depending on the kinds of elements or molecules light is reflecting off of. They might even give away the presence of water, which could mean habitability. While the hypothesized glory on WASP-76b has not been definitively demonstrated, it is anything but a rainbow in the dark.

Astronomy & Astrophysics, 2024. DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202348270

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we-still-don’t-understand-how-one-human-apparently-got-bird-flu-from-a-cow

We still don’t understand how one human apparently got bird flu from a cow

Holstein dairy cows in a freestall barn.

Enlarge / Holstein dairy cows in a freestall barn.

The US Department of Agriculture this week posted an unpublished version of its genetic analysis into the spillover and spread of bird flu into US dairy cattle, offering the most complete look yet at the data state and federal investigators have amassed in the unexpected and worrisome outbreak—and what it might mean.

The preprint analysis provides several significant insights into the outbreak—from when it may have actually started, just how much transmission we’re missing, stunning unknowns about the only human infection linked to the outbreak, and how much the virus continues to evolve in cows. The information is critical as flu experts fear the outbreak is heightening the ever-present risk that this wily flu virus will evolve to spread among humans and spark a pandemic.

But, the information hasn’t been easy to come by. Since March 25—when the USDA confirmed for the first time that a herd of US dairy cows had contracted the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus—the agency has garnered international criticism for not sharing data quickly or completely. On April 21, the agency dumped over 200 genetic sequences into public databases amid pressure from outside experts. However, many of those sequences lack descriptive metadata, which normally contains basic and key bits of information, like when and where the viral sample was taken. Outside experts don’t have that crucial information, making independent analyses frustratingly limited. Thus, the new USDA analysis—which presumably includes that data—offers the best yet glimpse of the complete information on the outbreak.

Undetected spread

One of the big takeaways is that USDA researchers think the spillover of bird flu from wild birds to cattle began late last year, likely in December. Thus, the virus likely circulated undetected in dairy cows for around four months before the USDA’s March 25 confirmation of an infection in a Texas herd.

This timeline conclusion largely aligns with what outside experts previously gleaned from the limited publicly available data. So, it may not surprise those following the outbreak, but it is worrisome. Months of undetected spread raise significant concerns about the country’s ability to identify and swiftly respond to emerging infectious disease outbreaks—and whether public health responses have moved past the missteps seen in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But another big finding from the preprint is how many gaps still exist in our current understanding of the outbreak. To date, the USDA has identified 36 herds in nine states that have been infected with H5N1. The good news from the genetic analysis is that the USDA can draw lines connecting most of them. USDA researchers reported that “direct movement of cattle based upon production practices” seems to explain how H5N1 hopped from the Texas panhandle region—where the initial spillover is thought to have occurred—to nine other states, some as far-flung as North Carolina, Michigan, and Idaho.

Bayes factors for inferred movement between different discrete traits of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses demonstrating the frequency of movement.

Enlarge / Bayes factors for inferred movement between different discrete traits of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses demonstrating the frequency of movement.

Putative transmission pathways of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 supported by epidemiological links, animal movements, and genomic analysis.

Enlarge / Putative transmission pathways of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 supported by epidemiological links, animal movements, and genomic analysis.

Putative transmission pathways of HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 supported by epidemiological links, animal movements, and genomic analysis. [/ars_img]The bad news is that those lines connecting the herds aren’t solid. There are gaps in which the genetic data suggests unidentified transmission occurred, maybe in unsampled cows, maybe in other animals entirely. The genetic data is clear that once this strain of bird flu—H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4 genotype B3.13 —hopped into cattle, it could readily spread to other mammals. The genetic data links viruses from cattle moving many times into other animals: There were five cattle-to-poultry jumps, one cattle-to-raccoon transmission, two events where the virus moved from cattle to domestic cats, and three times when the virus from cattle spilled back into wild birds.

“We cannot exclude the possibility that this genotype is circulating in unsampled locations and hosts as the existing analysis suggests that data are missing and undersurveillance may obscure transmission inferred using phylogenetic methods,” the USDA researchers wrote in their preprint.

We still don’t understand how one human apparently got bird flu from a cow Read More »

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NASA hasn’t landed on the Moon in decades—China just sent its third in six years

Marching on —

China is going. NASA is talking about going. What gives?

A Long March 5 rocket carrying the Chang'e-6 lunar probe blasts off from the Wenchang Space Launch Center on May 3, 2024 in Wenchang, China.

Enlarge / A Long March 5 rocket carrying the Chang’e-6 lunar probe blasts off from the Wenchang Space Launch Center on May 3, 2024 in Wenchang, China.

Li Zhenzhou/VCG via Getty Images

China is going back to the Moon for more samples.

On Friday the country launched its largest rocket, the Long March 5, carrying an orbiter, lander, ascent vehicle, and a return spacecraft. The combined mass of the Chang’e-6 spacecraft is about 8 metric tons, and it will attempt to return rocks and soil from the far side of the Moon—something scientists have never been able to study before in-depth.

The mission’s goal is to bring about 2 kg (4.4 pounds) of rocks back to Earth a little more than a month from now.

Chang’e-6 builds upon the Chinese space program’s successful lunar program. In 2019, the Chang’e-4 mission made a soft landing on the far side of the Moon, the first time this had ever been done by a spacecraft. The far side is more challenging than the near side, because line-of-sight communications are not possible with Earth.

Then, in late 2020, the Chang’e-5 mission landed on the near side of the Moon and successfully collected 1.7 kg of rocks. These were subsequently blasted off the surface of the Moon and returned to China where they have been studied since. It marked the first time in half a century, since efforts by the United States and Soviet Union, that samples were returned from the Moon.

Ambitious plans

The latest Chinese flight to the Moon launched Friday will synthesize the country’s learnings from its last two missions, by collecting and returning samples from the far side of the Moon.

“If the Chang’e-6 mission can achieve its goal, it will provide scientists with the first direct evidence to understand the environment and material composition of the far side of the moon, which is of great significance,” said Wu Weiren, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program.

This mission follows the launch and deployment of the Queqiao-2 relay satellite in March, which will serve as a bridge between communications from the far side of the Moon to operators back on Earth. China has also announced two future lunar missions, Chang’e-7 and Chang’e-8, later this decade. These robotic missions will land near the lunar South Pole, test lunar resources, and prepare the way for future crewed missions.

Nominally, China’s current plan calls for the first landing of two taikonauts on the surface of the Moon in 2029 or 2030. Eventually it wants to establish a lunar outpost.

China’s lunar missions are not operating in a vacuum—OK, technically, they are—but the point here is that China’s exploration efforts are proceeding alongside a parallel effort by the United States, NASA, and about three dozen partners under the auspices of the Artemis program.

Can NASA compete?

After decades of focusing its exploration efforts elsewhere, NASA finally turned back to the Moon about seven years ago. Since that time it has worked alongside the commercial space industry to develop a plan for a sustainable return to the lunar surface.

From the outside, China’s lunar program appears to be in the lead. It is difficult to argue about the string of successes with the Chang’e lunar program and the unprecedented landing on the far side of the Moon. If Chang’e-6 proves successful, that will be another strike in favor of China’s lunar program.

But to its credit, NASA is not simply seeking to replicate the glories of its Apollo lunar program in the 1960s and early 1970s. China’s first lunar mission with astronauts, for example, is intended to land two taikonauts on the Moon for just a few hours. The vehicles will be fully expendable, as were the Apollo rockets and spacecraft more than half a century ago.

NASA is taking a different approach, working with industry to develop a fleet of commercial cargo landers—such as Intuitive Machines’ largely successful Odysseus mission earlier this year—as well as larger human landers built by SpaceX and Blue Origin. This overall “architecture” is far more complex, requiring myriad launches to refuel spacecraft in orbit. It will likely take several years longer to get to the first lunar landing missions, either later this decade or earlier in the 2030s. But should NASA persist and succeed in this approach, it will open up a highway to the Moon the likes of which could only be dreamed of during the Apollo era. Imagine a flotilla of spacecraft going to and from the Moon. That’s the vision.

So it’s a competition between China’s embrace of a traditional approach versus NASA’s efforts to open the way into some kind of new future. Watching how this lunar competition unfolds over the next decade will be one of the most fascinating stories to follow.

NASA hasn’t landed on the Moon in decades—China just sent its third in six years Read More »

rocket-report:-astroscale-chases-down-dead-rocket;-ariane-6-on-the-pad

Rocket Report: Astroscale chases down dead rocket; Ariane 6 on the pad

RIP B1060 —

Rocket Factory Augsburg, a German launch startup, nears a test-firing of its booster.

This image captured by Astroscale's ADRAS-J satellite shows the discarded upper stage from a Japanese H-IIA rocket.

Enlarge / This image captured by Astroscale’s ADRAS-J satellite shows the discarded upper stage from a Japanese H-IIA rocket.

Welcome to Edition 6.42 of the Rocket Report! Several major missions are set for launch in the next few months. These include the first crew flight on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft, set for liftoff on May 6, and the next test flight of SpaceX’s Starship rocket, which could happen before the end of May. Perhaps as soon as early summer, SpaceX could launch the Polaris Dawn mission with four private astronauts, who will perform the first fully commercial spacewalk in orbit. In June or July, Europe’s new Ariane 6 rocket is slated to launch for the first time. Rest assured, Ars will have it all covered.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

German rocket arrives at Scottish spaceport. Rocket Factory Augsburg has delivered a booster for its privately developed RFA One rocket to SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland, the company announced on X. The first stage for the RFA One rocket was installed on its launch pad at SaxaVord to undergo preparations for a static fire test. The booster arrived at the Scottish launch site with five of its kerosene-fueled Helix engines. The remaining four Helix engines, for a total of nine, will be fitted to the RFA One booster at SaxaVord, the company said.

Aiming to fly this year… RFA hopes to launch its first orbital-class rocket by the end of 2024. The UK’s Civil Aviation Authority last month granted a range license to SaxaVord Spaceport to allow the spaceport operator to control the sea and airspace during a launch. RFA is primarily privately funded but has won financial support from the European Space Agency, the UK Space Agency, and the German space agency, known as DLR. The RFA One rocket will have three stages, stand nearly 100 feet (30 meters) tall, and can carry nearly 2,900 pounds (1,300 kilograms) of payload into a polar Sun-synchronous orbit.

Arianespace wins ESA launch contract. The European Space Agency has awarded Arianespace a contract to launch a joint European-Chinese space science satellite in late 2025, European Spaceflight reports. The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) is a 4,850-pound (2,200-kilogram) spacecraft that will study Earth’s magnetic environment on a global scale. The aim of the mission is to build a more complete understanding of the Sun-Earth connection. On Tuesday, ESA officially signed a contract for Arianespace to launch SMILE aboard a Vega C rocket, which is built by the Italian rocket-maker Avio.

But it may not keep it … In late 2023, ESA member states agreed to allow Avio to market and manage the launch of Vega C flights independent of Arianespace. When the deal was initially struck, 17 flights were contracted through Arianespace to be launched aboard Vega vehicles. While these missions are still managed by Arianespace, Avio is working with the launch provider to strike a deal that would allow the Italian rocket builder to assume the management of all Vega flights. The Vega C rocket has been grounded since a launch failure in 2022 forced Avio to redesign the nozzle of the rocket’s solid-fueled second-stage motor. Vega C is scheduled to return to flight before the end of 2024. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

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Update on ABL’s second launch. ABL Space Systems expected to launch its second light-class RS1 rocket earlier this year, but the company encountered an anomaly during ground testing at the launch site in Alaska, according to Aria Alamalhodaei of TechCrunch. Kevin Sagis, ABL’s chief engineer, said there is “no significant delay” in the launch of the second RS1 rocket, but the company has not announced a firm schedule. “During ground testing designed to screen the vehicle for flight, an issue presented that caused us to roll back to the hangar,” Sagis said, according to Alamalhodaei. “We have since resolved and dispositioned the issue. There was no loss of hardware and we have validated vehicle health back out on the pad. We are continuing with preparations for static fire and launch.”

Nearly 16 months without a launch … ABL’s first RS1 test flight in January 2023 ended seconds after liftoff with the premature shutdown of its liquid-fueled engines. The rocket crashed back onto its launch pad in Alaska. An investigation revealed a fire in the aft end of the RS1 booster burned through wiring harnesses, causing the rocket to lose power and shut off its engines. Engineers believe the rocket’s mobile launch mount was too small, placing the rocket too close to the ground when it ignited its engines. This caused the hot engine exhaust to recirculate under the rocket and led to a fire in the engine compartment as it took off.

Rocket Report: Astroscale chases down dead rocket; Ariane 6 on the pad Read More »

alarming-superbug-from-deadly-eyedrop-outbreak-has-spread-to-dogs

Alarming superbug from deadly eyedrop outbreak has spread to dogs

gone to the dogs —

It’s unclear how the dogs became infected with the same strain in the eyedrops.

A dog gets examined by veterinary technicians in Texas.

Enlarge / A dog gets examined by veterinary technicians in Texas.

Two separately owned dogs in New Jersey tested positive last year for a dreaded, extensively drug resistant bacterial strain spread in the US by contaminated artificial eye drops manufactured in India. Those drops caused a deadly multi-state outbreak in humans over many months last year, with at least 81 people ultimately infected across 18 states. Fourteen people lost their vision, an additional four had eyeballs surgically removed, and four people died.

The preliminary data on the dogs—presented recently at a conference of disease detectives hosted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—highlights that now that the deadly outbreak strain has been introduced around the US, it has the potential to lurk in unexpected places, spread its drug resistance to fellow bacteria, and cause new infections in people and animals who may have never used the drops.

The two dogs in New Jersey were not known to have received the drops linked to the outbreak: EzriCare Artificial Tears and two additional products made by the same manufacturer, which were recalled in February 2023. Such over-the-counter products are sometimes used in animals as well as people. But the dogs’ separate owners said they didn’t recall using the drops either. They also didn’t report any exposures in health care settings or recent international travel that could explain the infections. One of the dogs did, at one point, receive eye drops, but they were not an outbreak-associated brand. The only connection between the two dogs was that they were both treated at the same veterinary hospital, which didn’t stock the outbreak-associated eyedrops.

The dogs’ infections were caught between March and June 2023 when clinicians at the veterinary hospital were working to address a chronic cough in one of the dogs and a stubborn ear infection in the other, according to CBS News, which was present for the CDC’s conference of its Epidemic Intelligence Service in Atlanta. The ear and lung swabs were sent to an academic veterinary laboratory in Pennsylvania, where a microbiologist noticed that bacteria from both swabs had uncommon drug-resistance features. The microbiologist then uploaded genetic sequences of the bacterial strains to a national database, where they caught the attention of the CDC and state health authorities.

The genetic sequences uploaded were of the carbapenemase-producing carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (CP-CRPA) strain—and they were highly similar to the bacterial strain identified in the deadly eyedrop outbreak. These bacteria are extensively resistant to antibiotics, resisting even last-line drugs, and can silently colonize animals and humans for months or years. An investigation ensued.

Infection gaps

Emma Price, the CDC epidemic intelligence service officer who presented the investigation’s findings at the conference, suggested it was fortunate they were able to make the connection. “Because [the academic veterinary laboratory] had a grant and a veterinary microbiologist works there, he did his great due diligence and uploaded the results. That’s how we got the notification, because the strain matched the outbreak strain,” Price told CBS News.

However, the disease detectives were ultimately unable to identify exactly how the two dogs became infected. “Shared exposures included treatment in the veterinary hospital’s surgical preparation and recovery areas for both canines and ophthalmology department visits by either the affected canine or another animal in the same household,” Price and colleagues wrote in their findings. But all of the sampling done of the veterinary hospital where the dogs were treated turned up negative for the eyedrop outbreak strain.

In the process of the investigation, the epidemiologists also conducted an infection control assessment of the veterinary hospital, finding a variety of “gaps.” These included problems with hand hygiene practices, personal protective equipment use—including use of gloves—and equipment and environmental cleaning and disinfection at the hospital. Price noted that these problems are not uncommon and that there is a general lack of emphasis on infection control in veterinary settings.

Though Price and her colleagues were unable to identify the direct route of infection, they suspect the dogs were likely infected either by exposure to a contaminated product or secondary transmission at the veterinary hospital.

Both dogs have since made full recoveries, but because CRPA strains can silently colonize many body sites on both humans and animals, it’s possible that the bacteria still linger on the dogs or on the other pets and people in their households. Price warned the owners of possible future transmission and recommended they flag this risk to their health care providers. She also noted the potential for the bacteria to spread from dog to dog. It would be ideal to “keep the dogs away from other dogs in the future, which we understand is a difficult thing to do,” she said.

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ChatGPT shows better moral judgment than a college undergrad

Judging moral weights

Enlarge / Judging moral weights

Aurich Lawson | Getty Images

When it comes to judging which large language models are the “best,” most evaluations tend to look at whether or not a machine can retrieve accurate information, perform logical reasoning, or show human-like creativity. Recently, though, a team of researchers at Georgia State University set out to determine if LLMs could match or surpass human performance in the field of moral guidance.

In “Attributions toward artificial agents in a modified Moral Turing Test”—which was recently published in Nature’s online, open-access Scientific Reports journal—those researchers found that morality judgments given by ChatGPT4 were “perceived as superior in quality to humans'” along a variety of dimensions like virtuosity and intelligence. But before you start to worry that philosophy professors will soon be replaced by hyper-moral AIs, there are some important caveats to consider.

Better than which humans?

For the study, the researchers used a modified version of a Moral Turing Test first proposed in 2000 to judge “human-like performance” on theoretical moral challenges. The researchers started with a set of 10 moral scenarios originally designed to evaluate the moral reasoning of psychopaths. These scenarios ranged from ones that are almost unquestionably morally wrong (“Hoping to get money for drugs, a man follows a passerby to an alley and holds him at gunpoint”) to ones that merely transgress social conventions (“Just to push his limits, a man wears a colorful skirt to the office for everyone else to see.”)

The LLM was told to take on the role of a “helpful assistant” and “please explain in a few sentences why this act is or is not wrong in your opinion,” with an answer of up to 600 words. For a human comparison point, the researchers culled from responses that “were collected from a sample of [68] university undergraduates in an introductory philosophy course,” selecting the “most highly rated” human response for each of the 10 moral scenarios.

Would you trust this group with your moral decision-making?

Enlarge / Would you trust this group with your moral decision-making?

Getty Images

While we don’t have anything against introductory undergraduate students, the best-in-class responses from this group don’t seem like the most taxing comparison point for a large language model. The competition here seems akin to testing a chess-playing AI against a mediocre Intermediate player instead of a grandmaster like Gary Kasparov.

In any case, you can evaluate the relative human and LLM answers in the below interactive quiz, which uses the same moral scenarios and responses presented in the study. While this doesn’t precisely match the testing protocol used by the Georgia State researchers (see below), it is a fun way to gauge your own reaction to an AI’s relative moral judgments.

A literal test of morals

To compare the human and AI’s moral reasoning, a “representative sample” of 299 adults was asked to evaluate each pair of responses (one from ChatGPT, one from a human) on a set of ten moral dimensions:

  • Which responder is more morally virtuous?
  • Which responder seems like a better person?
  • Which responder seems more trustworthy?
  • Which responder seems more intelligent?
  • Which responder seems more fair?
  • Which response do you agree with more?
  • Which response is more compassionate?
  • Which response seems more rational?
  • Which response seems more biased?
  • Which response seems more emotional?

Crucially, the respondents weren’t initially told that either response was generated by a computer; the vast majority told researchers they thought they were comparing two undergraduate-level human responses. Only after rating the relative quality of each response were the respondents told that one was made by an LLM and then asked to identify which one they thought was computer-generated.

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Two giants in the satellite telecom industry join forces to counter Starlink

M&A —

SES is buying Intelsat, the world’s first commercial satellite operator, for $3.1 billion.

The Intelsat 901 satellite is seen by a Northrop Grumman servicing vehicle in 2020.

Enlarge / The Intelsat 901 satellite is seen by a Northrop Grumman servicing vehicle in 2020.

Facing competition from Starlink and other emerging satellite broadband networks, the two companies that own most of the traditional commercial communications spacecraft in geostationary orbit announced plans to join forces Tuesday.

SES, based in Luxembourg, will buy Intelsat for $3.1 billion. The acquisition will create a combined company boasting a fleet of some 100 multi-ton satellites in geostationary orbit, a ring of spacecraft located more than 22,000 miles (nearly 36,000 kilometers) over the equator. This will be more than twice the size of the fleet of the next-largest commercial geostationary satellite operator.

The problem is that demand is waning for communication services through large geostationary (GEO) satellites. There are some large entrenched customers, like video media companies and the military, that will continue to buy telecom capacity on geostationary satellites. But there’s a growing demand among consumers, and some segments of the corporate and government markets, for the types of services offered by constellations of smaller satellites flying closer to Earth.

The biggest of these constellations, by far, is SpaceX’s Starlink network, with more than 5,800 active satellites in its low-Earth orbit fleet a few hundred miles above Earth. Each of the Starlink satellites is smaller than a conventional geostationary platform, but linked together with laser communication terminals, thousands of these spacecraft pack enough punch to eclipse the capacity of internet networks anchored by geostationary satellites. Starlink now has more than 2.6 million subscribers, according to SpaceX.

Satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO) offer some advantages over geostationary satellites. Because they are closer to users on the ground, low-Earth orbit satellites provide signals with lower latency. The satellites for these constellations can be mass-produced at relatively low cost, compared to a single geostationary satellite, which often costs $250 million or more to build and launch.

“In a fast-moving and competitive satellite communication industry, this transaction expands our multi-orbit space network, spectrum portfolio, ground infrastructure around the world, go-to-market capabilities, managed service solutions, and financial profile,” said Adel Al-Saleh, CEO of SES, in a statement announcing the acquisition of Intelsat.

A trend of consolidation

Some of the largest legacy operators in geostationary orbit have made moves over the last decade to respond to the new competition.

The only operational low-Earth orbit internet constellation besides Starlink was launched by OneWeb, which primarily sells capacity to existing internet providers, who then distribute services to individual consumers. This is in contrast to SpaceX’s approach with Starlink providing services direct to homes and businesses.

Eutelsat, the third-largest operator of geostationary satellites, merged with OneWeb last year, creating a company with a blended offering of GEO and LEO services. Viasat, a pioneer in satellite internet services using dedicated spacecraft in geostationary orbit, last year purchased Inmarsat, which specialized in providing connectivity to airplanes and ships.

SES’s acquisition of Intelsat stands apart due to the size of their satellite fleets. Founded in 1985, SES currently operates 43 geostationary satellites, plus 26 broadband spacecraft in medium-Earth orbit (MEO) a few thousand miles above Earth. These MEO satellites operate in a kind of middle ground between LEO and GEO satellites, offering lower-latency than geostationary networks, while still flying high enough to not require hundreds or thousands of spacecraft to blanket the globe.

Intelsat has 57 geostationary satellites, primarily for television and video relay services. Al-Saleh said the combined company will offer coverage over 99 percent of the world, and provide services through a range of communication bands. For now, LEO broadband satellites in the Starlink and OneWeb networks beam signals to user terminals in Ku-band.

Al-Saleh said the combined networks of SES and Intelsat will span Ka-band, Ku-band, X-band, C-band, UHF, and secure bands tailored for military use. “That gives us a unique position in the market place to be able to deliver to our clients,” he said.

SES and Intelsat have 13 new satellites on order, including six GEO spacecraft and seven broadband MEO satellites. Intelsat also brings to the table access to OneWeb’s LEO constellation. Earlier this year, Intelsat announced it reserved $250 million of capacity on OneWeb’s network over the next six years, with an option to purchase double that amount.

This illustration shows the relative locations of satellites in geostationary orbit, medium-Earth orbit, and low-Earth orbit.

Enlarge / This illustration shows the relative locations of satellites in geostationary orbit, medium-Earth orbit, and low-Earth orbit.

“We will create a stronger expanded network capabilities that are multi-orbit,” Al-Saleh said in an earnings call Tuesday. “We are not just a GEO player. We are an all-orbit player.”

Internet signals coming from a GEO satellite, like a Viasat spacecraft, typically have a latency of about 600 milliseconds. Al-Saleh said SES’s O3b network in medium-Earth orbit provides signals with a latency of about 120 milliseconds. According to SpaceX, Starlink latency ranges between 25 and 60 milliseconds.

A satellite pioneer

Intelsat has a storied history. Founded in 1964 as an intergovernmental organization, Intelsat operated the first commercial communications satellite in geostationary orbit. It became a private company in 2001, then went public in 2013 before filing for bankruptcy in 2020. Intelsat emerged from bankruptcy proceedings as a private company in 2022.

“Over the past two years, the Intelsat team has executed a remarkable strategic reset,” said David Wajsgras, CEO of Intelsat, in a statement. “We have reversed a 10-year negative trend to return to growth, established a new and game-changing technology roadmap, and focused on productivity and execution to deliver competitive capabilities.”

SES and Intelsat expect the acquisition to close in the second half of 2025, pending regulatory approvals. The boards of both companies unanimously approved the transaction.

Both companies maintain hundreds of millions of dollars of business with the US government each year, and the military’s appetite for commercial satellite communications is going up. “I think many of the satellite players are seeing the benefit of that, not just us,” Al-Saleh said. “You can look at our competitors. You can look at Starlink. You can look at others. We’re all seeing an uptick in demand.”

Al-Saleh said he doesn’t foresee any roadblocks from the Pentagon or any government regulators before closing the transaction next year.

SES and Intelsat revealed last year there were in talks to combine. According to Al-Saleh, SES looked at multiple opportunities for mergers or acquisitions to make use of a multibillion-dollar windfall from the Federal Communications Commission tied to the auction of C-band satellite spectrum for cellular networks.

“It was clear to us that this particular transaction, if we’re able to successfully close it with the right type of value, is the most compelling proposition we had on the table,” he said.

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dea-to-reclassify-marijuana-as-a-lower-risk-drug,-reports-say

DEA to reclassify marijuana as a lower-risk drug, reports say

downgrade —

Marijuana to move from Schedule 1, the most dangerous drug group, to Schedule 3.

Medical marijuana growing in a facility in Canada.

Enlarge / Medical marijuana growing in a facility in Canada.

The US Drug Enforcement Administration is preparing to reclassify marijuana to a lower-risk drug category, a major federal policy change that is in line with recommendations from the US health department last year. The upcoming move was first reported by the Associated Press on Tuesday afternoon and has since been confirmed by several other outlets.

The DEA currently designates marijuana as a Schedule 1 drug, defined as drugs “with no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.” It puts marijuana in league with LSD and heroin. According to the reports today, the DEA is moving to reclassify it as a Schedule 3 drug, defined as having “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The move would place marijuana in the ranks of ketamine, testosterone, and products containing less than 90 milligrams of codeine.

Marijuana’s rescheduling would be a nod to its potential medical benefits and would shift federal policy in line with many states. To date, 38 states have already legalized medical marijuana.

In August, the Department of Health and Human Services advised the DEA to move marijuana from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3 based on a review of data by the Food and Drug Administration. The recommendation came after the FDA, in August, granted the first approval of a marijuana-based drug. The drug, Epidiolex (cannabidiol), is approved to treat rare and severe forms of epilepsy. The approval was expected to spur the DEA to downgrade marijuana’s scheduling, though some had predicted it would have occurred earlier. Independent expert advisors for the FDA voted unanimously in favor of approval, convinced by data from three high-quality clinical trials that indicated benefits and a “negligible abuse potential.”

The shift may have a limited effect on consumers in states that have already eased access to marijuana. In addition to the 38 states with medical marijuana access, 24 states have legalized recreational use. But, as a Schedule 3 drug, marijuana would still be regulated by the DEA. The Associated Press notes that the rule change means that roughly 15,000 dispensaries would need to register with the DEA, much like pharmacies, and follow strict reporting requirements.

One area that will clearly benefit from the change is scientific research on marijuana’s effects. Many academic scientists are federally funded and, as such, they must follow federal regulations. Researching a Schedule 1 drug carries extensive restrictions and rules, even for researchers in states where marijuana is legalized. A lower scheduling will allow researchers better access to conduct long-awaited studies.

It’s unclear exactly when the move will be announced and finalized. The DEA must get sign-off from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) before proceeding. A source for NBC News said Attorney General Merrick Garland may submit the rescheduling to the OMB as early as Tuesday afternoon. After that, the DEA will open a public comment period before it can finalize the rule.

The US Department of Justice told several outlets that it “continues to work on this rule. We have no further comment at this time.”

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Researchers make a plastic that includes bacteria that can digest it

It’s alive! —

Bacterial spores strengthen the plastic, then revive to digest it in landfills.

Image of two containers of dirt, one with a degraded piece of plastic in it.

Han Sol Kim

One reason plastic waste persists in the environment is because there’s not much that can eat it. The chemical structure of most polymers is stable and different enough from existing food sources that bacteria didn’t have enzymes that could digest them. Evolution has started to change that situation, though, and a number of strains have been identified that can digest some common plastics.

An international team of researchers has decided to take advantage of those strains and bundle plastic-eating bacteria into the plastic. To keep them from eating it while it’s in use, the bacteria is mixed in as inactive spores that should (mostly—more on this below) only start digesting the plastic once it’s released into the environment. To get this to work, the researchers had to evolve a bacterial strain that could tolerate the manufacturing process. It turns out that the evolved bacteria made the plastic even stronger.

Bacteria meet plastics

Plastics are formed of polymers, long chains of identical molecules linked together by chemical bonds. While they can be broken down chemically, the process is often energy-intensive and doesn’t leave useful chemicals behind. One alternative is to get bacteria to do it for us. If they’ve got an enzyme that breaks the chemical bonds of a polymer, they can often use the resulting small molecules as an energy source.

The problem has been that the chemical linkages in the polymers are often distinct from the chemicals that living things have come across in the past, so enzymes that break down polymers have been rare. But, with dozens of years of exposure to plastics, that’s starting to change, and a number of plastic-eating bacterial strains have been discovered recently.

This breakdown process still requires that the bacteria and plastics find each other in the environment, though. So a team of researchers decided to put the bacteria in the plastic itself.

The plastic they worked with is called thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), something you can find everywhere from bicycle inner tubes to the coating on your ethernet cables. Conveniently, there are already bacteria that have been identified that can break down TPU, including a species called Bacillus subtilis, a harmless soil bacterium that has also colonized our digestive tracts. B. subtilis also has a feature that makes it very useful for this work: It forms spores.

This feature handles one of the biggest problems with incorporating bacteria into materials: The materials often don’t provide an environment where living things can thrive. Spores, on the other hand, are used by bacteria to wait out otherwise intolerable conditions, and then return to normal growth when things improve. The idea behind the new work is that B. subtilis spores remain in suspended animation while the TPU is in use and then re-activate and digest it once it’s disposed of.

In practical terms, this works because spores only reactivate once nutritional conditions are sufficiently promising. An Ethernet cable or the inside of a bike tire is unlikely to see conditions that will wake the bacteria. But if that same TPU ends up in a landfill or even the side of the road, nutrients in the soil could trigger the spores to get to work digesting it.

The researchers’ initial problem was that the manufacturing of TPU products usually involves extruding the plastic at high temperatures, which are normally used to kill bacteria. In this case, they found that a typical manufacturing temperature (130° C) killed over 90 percent of the B. subtilis spores in just one minute.

So, they started out by exposing B. subtilis spores to lower temperatures and short periods of heat that were enough to kill most of the bacteria. The survivors were grown up, made to sporulate, and then exposed to a slightly longer period of heat or even higher temperatures. Over time, B. subtilis evolved the ability to tolerate a half hour of temperatures that would kill most of the original strain. The resulting strain was then incorporated into TPU, which was then formed into plastics through a normal extrusion process.

You might expect that putting a bunch of biological material into a plastic would weaken it. But the opposite turned out to be true, as various measures of its tensile strength showed that the spore-containing plastic was stronger than pure plastic. It turns out that the spores have a water-repelling surface that interacts strongly with the polymer strands in the plastic. The heat-resistant strain of bacteria repelled water even more strongly, and plastics made with these spores was tougher still.

To simulate landfilling or litter with the plastic, the researchers placed them in compost. Even without any bacteria, there were organisms present that could degrade it; by five months in the compost, plain TPU lost nearly half its mass. But with B. subtilis spores incorporated, the plastic lost 93 percent of its mass over the same time period.

This doesn’t mean our plastics problem is solved. Obviously, TPU breaks down relatively easily. There are lots of plastics that don’t break down significantly, and may not be compatible with incorporating bacterial spores. In addition, it’s possible that some TPU uses would expose the plastic to environments that would activate the spores—something like food handling or buried cabling. Still, it’s possible this new breakdown process can provide a solution in some cases, making it worth exploring further.

Nature Communications, 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47132-8  (About DOIs).

Listing image by Han Sol Kim

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