Science – Page 34

First tokamak component installed in a commercial fusion plant

fusion, Physics, plasma, Science, stellarator, tokamak / Paul Patrick / April 2, 2025

A tokamak moves forward as two companies advance plans for stellarators.

There are a remarkable number of commercial fusion power startups, considering that it’s a technology that’s built a reputation for being perpetually beyond the horizon. Many of them focus on radically new technologies for heating and compressing plasmas, or fusing unusual combinations of isotopes. These technologies are often difficult to evaluate—they can clearly generate hot plasmas, but it’s tough to determine whether they can get hot enough, often enough to produce usable amounts of power.

On the other end of the spectrum are a handful of companies that are trying to commercialize designs that have been extensively studied in the academic world. And there have been some interesting signs of progress here. Recently, Commonwealth Fusion, which is building a demonstration tokamak in Massachussets, started construction of the cooling system that will keep its magnets superconducting. And two companies that are hoping to build a stellarator did some important validation of their concepts.

Doing donuts

A tokamak is a donut-shaped fusion chamber that relies on intense magnetic fields to compress and control the plasma within it. A number of tokamaks have been built over the years, but the big one that is expected to produce more energy than required to run it, ITER, has faced many delays and now isn’t expected to achieve its potential until the 2040s. Back in 2015, however, some physicists calculated that high-temperature superconductors would allow ITER-style performance in a far smaller and easier-to-build package. That idea was commercialized as Commonwealth Fusion.

The company is currently trying to build an ITER equivalent: a tokamak that can achieve fusion but isn’t large enough and lacks some critical hardware needed to generate electricity from that reaction. The planned facility, SPARC, is already in progress, with most of the supporting facility in place and superconducting magnets being constructed. But in late March, the company took a major step by installing the first component of the tokamak itself, the cryostat base, which will support the hardware that keeps its magnets cool.

Alex Creely, Commonwealth Fusion’s tokamak operations director and SPARC’s chief engineer, told Ars that the cryostat’s materials have to be chosen to be capable of handling temperatures in the area of 20 Kelvin, and be able to tolerate neutron exposure. Fortunately, stainless steel is still up to the task. It will also be part of a structure that has to handle an extreme temperature gradient. Creely said that it only takes about 30 centimeters to go from the hundreds of millions of degrees C of the plasma down to about 1,000° C, after which it becomes relatively simple to reach cryostat temperatures.

He said that construction is expected to wrap up about a year from now, after which there will be about a year of commissioning the hardware, with fusion experiments planned for 2027. And, while ITER may be facing ongoing delays, Creely said that it was critical for keeping Commonwealth on a tight schedule. Not only is most of the physics of SPARC the same as that of ITER, but some of the hardware will be as well. “We’ve learned a lot from their supply chain development,” Creely said. “So some of the same vendors that are supplying components for the ITER tokamak, we are also working with those same vendors, which has been great.”

Great in the sense that Commonwealth is now on track to see plasma well in advance of ITER. “Seeing all of this go from a bunch of sketches or boxes on slides—clip art effectively—to real metal and concrete that’s all coming together,” Creely said. “You’re transitioning from building the facility, building the plant around the tokamak to actually starting to build the tokamak itself. That is an awesome milestone.”

Seeing stars?

The plasma inside a tokamak is dynamic, meaning that it requires a lot of magnetic intervention to keep it stable, and fusion comes in pulses. There’s an alternative approach called a stellarator, which produces an extremely complex magnetic field that can support a simpler, stable plasma and steady fusion. As implemented by the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator in Germany, this meant a series of complex-shaped magnets manufactured with extremely low tolerance for deviation. But a couple of companies have decided they’re up for the challenge.

One of those, Type One Energy, has basically reached the stage that launched Commonwealth Fusion: It has made a detailed case for the physics underlying its stellarator design. In this instance, the case may even be considerably more detailed: six peer-reviewed articles in the Journal of Plasma Physics. The papers detail the structural design, the behavior of the plasma within it, handling of the helium produced by fusion, generation of tritium from the neutrons produced, and obtaining heat from the whole thing.

The company is partnering with Oak Ridge National Lab and the Tennessee Valley Authority to build a demonstration reactor on the site of a former fossil fuel power plant. (It’s also cooperating with Commonwealth on magnet development.) As with the SPARC tokamak, this will be a mix of technology demonstration and learning experience, rather than a functioning power plant.

Another company that’s pursuing a stellarator design is called Thea Energy. Brian Berzin, its CEO, told Ars that the company’s focus is on simplifying the geometry of the magnets needed for a stellarator and is using software to get them to produce an equivalent magnetic field. “The complexity of this device has always been really, really limiting,” he said, referring to the stellarator. “That’s what we’re really focused on: How can you make simpler hardware? Our way of allowing for simpler hardware is using really, really complicated software, which is something that has taken over the world.”

He said that the simplicity of the hardware will be helpful for an operational power plant, since it allows them to build multiple identical segments as spares, so things can be swapped out and replaced when maintenance is needed.

Like Commonwealth Fusion, Thea Energy is using high-temperature superconductors to build its magnets, with a flat array of smaller magnets substituting for the three-dimensional magnets used at Wendelstein. “We are able to really precisely recreate those magnetic fields required for accelerator, but without any wiggly, complicated, precise, expensive, costly, time-consuming hardware,” Berzin said. And the company recently released a preprint of some testing with the magnet array.

Thea is also planning on building a test stellarator. In its case, however, it’s going to be using deuterium-deuterium fusion, which is much less efficient than deuterium-tritium that will be needed for a power plant. But Berzin said that the design will incorporate a layer of lithium that will form tritium when bombarded by neutrons from the stellarator. If things go according to plan, the reactor will validate Thea’s design and be a fuel source for the rest of the industry.

Of course, nobody will operate a fusion power plant until sometime in the next decade—probably about at the same time that we might expect some of the first small modular fission plants to be built. Given the vast expansion in renewable production that is in progress, it’s difficult to predict what the energy market will look like at that point. So, these test reactors will be built in a very uncertain environment. But that uncertainty hasn’t stopped these companies from pursuing fusion.

John is Ars Technica’s science editor. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cell Biology from the University of California, Berkeley. When physically separated from his keyboard, he tends to seek out a bicycle, or a scenic location for communing with his hiking boots.

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Research roundup: 2,400-year-old clay puppets; this is your brain on Klingon

research roundup, Science / Kris Guyer / April 1, 2025

The stories we almost missed this month

Also: testing the efficacy of WWI “dazzle” camouflage; how the male blue-lined octopus survives deadly mating ritual.

Credit: J. Przedwojewska-Szymańska/PASI

It’s a regrettable reality that there is never time to cover all the interesting scientific stories we come across each month. In the past, we’ve featured year-end roundups of cool science stories we (almost) missed. This year, we’re experimenting with a monthly collection of such stories. March’s list includes fascinating papers on such topics as how the brain responds to speaking Klingon (or Dothraki, or Navi), the discovery of creepy preclassic Salvadoran puppets, the effectiveness of “dazzle camouflage,” and how male blue-lined octopuses manage not to be cannibalized by their chosen mates.

Wind Cave’s rocks fluoresce under black light

Several fluorescence measurements of a zebra calcite in Wind Cave were taken using portable spectrometers. Credit: Joshua Sebree

South Dakota’s Wind Cave gets its name from the flow of air moving continually through its many passages and equalizing the atmospheric pressure between the air inside and outside—almost like the cave is “breathing.” Its rock and mineral formations also boast a unique chemistry that fluoresces when exposed to black light, according to talks presented at the spring meeting of the American Chemical Society in San Diego. That fluorescence could shed light on how life can thrive in extreme environments, including that of Jupiter’s moon, Europa.

University of Northern Iowa astrobiologist Joshua Sebree and several students have been mapping new areas of Wind Cave (as well as other caves in the US), recording the passages, rock formations, minerals, and lifeforms they encounter in the process. They noticed that under UV light, certain parts of Wind Cave took on otherworldly hues, thanks to different concentrations of organic and inorganic fossilized chemical compounds. Those areas seem to indicate where water once flowed, carrying minerals into the cave from the surface 10,000 to 20,000 years ago, according to their analysis of the fluorescent spectra. Sebree et al. found that Wind Cave was likely carved out by waters rich in manganese, producing zebra stripes that glow pink under UV light, revealing the calcites that grew within as a result of those waters.

The physics of swing-top beer bottles

Three frames of a high-speed recording after popping a homebrewed bottle of beer. Credit: Max Koch

So-called kitchen science is all the rage these days, with champagne, wine, and beer being particularly favorite subjects for experimentation. German physicist Max Koch of the University of Goettingen is as passionate about home brewing as he is about fluid dynamics. So naturally, Koch became fascinated by the distinctive “pop and slosh” sounds produced whenever he opened one of his home-brewed swing-top beer bottles. His experiments used a high-speed camera to capture the acoustics and underlying physics, augmented by audio recording and computer simulations.

Rather than producing a single shockwave, Koch and his co-authors discovered that the unique sound occurs because popping the lid produces a vibrating standing wave, thanks to condensation within the bottleneck, according to a paper published in the journal Physics of Fluids. They were surprised to find that the frequency of the pop was significantly lower than the resonance produced by blowing across the open bottle top, which they attributed to the sudden expansion of the carbon dioxide and a strong cooling effect that reduces sound speed. The sloshing is due to the bottle’s motion, and it’s possible that the lid hitting the glass after popping could produce more bubbles and hence gushing.

Physics of Fluids, 2025. DOI: 10.1063/5.0248739 (About DOIs).

How effective was WWI “dazzle paint”?

A painting by Norman Wilkinson of a moonlit convoy wearing his dazzle camouflage, 1918 — A painting by Norman Wilkinson of a moonlit convoy wearing the dazzle camouflage he invented, 1918. Credit: Public domain

During World War I, ships were often painted with complex geometric shapes in contrasting and intersecting colors, dubbed “dazzle camouflage” and usually attributed to British marine artist Norman Wilkinson. The objective was to confuse enemy U-boat captains trying to determine the speed and direction of those ships, and a 1919 study seemed to support that hypothesis. Aston University researchers have revisited that original study and concluded that the horizon effect—in which ships viewed from a distance seem to be traveling along the horizon—is a more effective means of confusing enemy combatants, according to a paper published in the journal i-Perception.

The author of the 1919 study was an MIT marine engineering student named Leo Blodgett, who painted model ships in those geometric patterns and observed them with a model periscope in a mechanical test theater to see if he could determine whether an observer’s perception of the direction of travel was markedly different from the actual direction. He concluded that this was indeed the case and therefore dazzle paint was effective.

But according to the Aston scientists, Blodgett’s experiment did not have a solid control condition to warrant such a conclusion. So they revisited his 105-year-old data and ran their own version of Blodgett’s experiment, comparing results from his photographs showing the original dazzle camouflage with versions that had the camouflage patterns edited out. The results: the dazzle camouflage did work via a twist on perspective, but it was a small effect. The horizon effect had a much stronger confounding effect.

i-Perception, 2025. DOI: 10.1177/20416695241312316 (About DOIs).

Early Salvadoran clay puppets

These “Bolinas” figures were found in a Salvadorian pyramid. — These “Bolinas” figures were found in a Salvadoran pyramid. Credit: J. Przedwojewska-Szymańska/PASI

Archaeologists excavating the San Isidro pyramid in El Salvador have discovered five carved clay figurines dating back to around 400 BCE that may have been controlled with string like modern marionettes. Such “Bolinas” figures have also been found at a Mayan burial site in Guatemala, suggesting the two areas may have shared culture and civilization, according to a paper published in the journal Antiquity.

Three of the puppets were about a foot tall, with the other two measuring about 18 centimeters. The larger ones had adjustable heads connected to their bodies via matching sockets. The carved faces feature tongues, tattoos, and facial expressions that shift depending on the viewing angle: fearful when viewed from below and grinning from above, for example. The authors suggest that these puppets weren’t used as toys, but as “clay actors” in ritualistic funeral performances. “The universal impetus for creating scaled-down humanoid figures appears to be mimetic—that is, imbuing these handheld objects with deeper meanings that are readily decoded by the intended audience,” they concluded, although the shared cultural “code” for interpreting those meanings has been lost.

Antiquity, 2025. DOI: 10.15184/aqy.2025.37 (About DOIs).

This is your brain on Esperanto and Klingon

Worf, son of Mogh, is surprised by new fMRI study. Credit: Paramount+

J.R.R. Tolkien invented two Elvish languages (Quenya and Sindarin) when writing The Lord of the Rings trilogy. Star Trek has Klingon, the Avatar films have Na’vi, and Game of Thrones boasts two constructed languages, or conlangs: Dothraki and High Valyrian. There are even hardcore fans who have diligently become proficient in those invented languages. And apparently conlangs activate the same parts of the brain as their native tongues, according to a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

MIT neuroscientist Evelina Fedorenko previously spearheaded studies on how the brain responds to stimuli that share certain language features—music, gestures, facial expressions, and computer programming languages like Python. None seemed to engage the language-processing areas of the brain. Curious about what makes natural language unique, Fedorenko et al. turned to conlangs. They organized a weekend conference featuring conlang creators as speakers and invited people fluent in Esperanto, Klingon, Na’vi, Dothraki, and High Valyrian to participate. They scanned 44 conlang speakers with fMRI as they listened to sentences in both their chosen conlang and their native tongue, performing nonlinguistic tasks as a control.

The results: The same language regions lit up regardless of whether they were speaking in their chosen conlang or native natural language. This helped the group determine that language responses appear to be driven in part by how they convey meaning about the interior and exterior world—objects, properties of objects, events, etc. Python, by contrast, is highly symbolic and abstract, disconnected from the everyday “real” world we experience. The group next plans to study how the brain responds to a different conlang called Lojban, created in the 1990s, to learn more about which language features activate the brain’s language centers.

PNAS, 2025. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2313473122 (About DOIs).

Venom as a protective strategy for male octopuses

Male blue-lined octopuses inject females with venom during sex to avoid being eaten. Credit: Wen-Sung Chung/University of Queensland

Sexual cannibalism—in which a female of the species consumes the male after copulating—is a very real thing in nature, seen in insect species like mantises and spiders, certain crustaceans and gastropods, and even certain species of octopus. Case in point: the blue-lined octopus (Hapalochlaena fasciata), a tiny creature found in shallow waters whose venom can be quite deadly, especially to humans. The females of the species might be the size of golf balls, but they are nonetheless significantly larger than the males and have a tendency to eat their mates.

Fortunately, the males have developed an effective defense strategy, according to a paper published in the journal Current Biology: They inject their chosen females with tetrodotoxin (a venom also produced by pufferfish) just before mating, temporarily paralyzing the females so the males can avoid being eaten. Scientists at the University of Queensland studied the behavior of mating blue-lined octopuses in the lab and noticed that males would bite the females near the aorta as the mating ritual commenced, flooding their systems with the venom.

This immobilized the females for the duration of the mating sessions (which lasted between 40 and 75 minutes); they largely stopped breathing, turned pale, and did not respond to visual stimuli during that time. The males actually increased their respiration rate as they used a specialized mating arm to deposit their sperm into the females’ oviducts to fertilize the eggs. The effects of the venom eventually wore off sufficiently for the females to push the males away without suffering any permanent effects. The authors suggest that female blue-lined octopuses may have evolved a tolerance to tetrodotoxin, ensuring they survive to lay their eggs and propagate the species.

Current Biology, 2025. DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2025.01.027 (About DOIs).

Rubber hand illusion alleviates pain

A rubber hand is perceived as part of your own body when you can't see your own. — A rubber hand is perceived as part of your own body when you can’t see your own. Credit: Damian Gorczany

One of the many strange things to come out of 21st-century neuroscience is the so-called rubber hand illusion, in which a subject’s hand is hidden and replaced by a rubber hand in the position where the real hand would be. When both the real and fake hands are stroked simultaneously, subjects respond as if the rubber hand were part of their body. Threaten the rubber hand by attempting to stab it with a dagger, for instance, and the participants exhibit an involuntary startle or fear response. It’s the combination of visual and tactile feedback that does it, and it only takes a few seconds for the illusion to kick in. And it’s not a purely psychological effect; there have been measurable physiological responses as well.

Scientists in Bochum, Germany, have now shown that the rubber hand illusion can also alleviate pain, according to a paper published in the journal Pain Reports. They recruited 34 right-handed subjects, evaluated their individual pain thresholds, then placed the subjects’ left hands behind a screen. A left rubber hand was placed in front of the subjects, which could be lit from below with red light. Then heat was applied at different temperatures to the hidden hand, while red light increased on the visible rubber hand. Subjects were asked to rate their pain in response.

The results: subjects’ perception of pain decreased noticeably when the rubber hand illusion was used, compared to control conditions. The authors don’t yet know what the underlying mechanism might be but suggest it could be related to visual analgesia, in which pain is considered less intense if someone can see the part of the body that is being hurt.

Pain Reports, 2025. DOI: 10.1097/PR9.0000000000001252 (About DOIs).

Jennifer is a senior writer at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

Research roundup: 2,400-year-old clay puppets; this is your brain on Klingon Read More »

FBI raids home of prominent computer scientist who has gone incommunicado

Policy, Science, Security / Paul Patrick / March 31, 2025

A prominent computer scientist who has spent 20 years publishing academic papers on cryptography, privacy, and cybersecurity has gone incommunicado, had his professor profile, email account, and phone number removed by his employer, Indiana University, and had his homes raided by the FBI. No one knows why.

Xiaofeng Wang has a long list of prestigious titles. He was the associate dean for research at Indiana University’s Luddy School of Informatics, Computing and Engineering, a fellow at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a tenured professor at Indiana University at Bloomington. According to his employer, he has served as principal investigator on research projects totaling nearly $23 million over his 21 years there.

He has also co-authored scores of academic papers on a diverse range of research fields, including cryptography, systems security, and data privacy, including the protection of human genomic data. I have personally spoken to him on three occasions for articles here, here, and here.

“None of this is in any way normal”

In recent weeks, Wang’s email account, phone number, and profile page at the Luddy School were quietly erased by his employer. Over the same time, Indiana University also removed a profile for his wife, Nianli Ma, who was listed as a Lead Systems Analyst and Programmer at the university’s Library Technologies division.

As reported by the Bloomingtonian and later the Herald-Times in Bloomington, a small fleet of unmarked cars driven by government agents descended on the Bloomington home of Wang and Ma on Friday. They spent most of the day going in and out of the house and occasionally transferred boxes from their vehicles. TV station WTHR, meanwhile, reported that a second home owned by Wang and Ma and located in Carmel, Indiana, was also searched. The station said that both a resident and an attorney for the resident were on scene during at least part of the search.

FBI raids home of prominent computer scientist who has gone incommunicado Read More »

NASA’s Curiosity rover has found the longest chain carbon molecules yet on Mars

Curiosity rover, mars rover, NASA, Science, Space, syndication / Mike M. / March 31, 2025

NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover has detected the largest organic (carbon-containing) molecules ever found on the red planet. The discovery is one of the most significant findings in the search for evidence of past life on Mars. This is because, on Earth at least, relatively complex, long-chain carbon molecules are involved in biology. These molecules could actually be fragments of fatty acids, which are found in, for example, the membranes surrounding biological cells.

Scientists think that, if life ever emerged on Mars, it was probably microbial in nature. Because microbes are so small, it’s difficult to be definitive about any potential evidence for life found on Mars. Such evidence needs more powerful scientific instruments that are too large to be put on a rover.

The organic molecules found by Curiosity consist of carbon atoms linked in long chains, with other elements bonded to them, like hydrogen and oxygen. They come from a 3.7-billion-year-old rock dubbed Cumberland, encountered by the rover at a presumed dried-up lakebed in Mars’s Gale Crater. Scientists used the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument on the NASA rover to make their discovery.

Scientists were actually looking for evidence of amino acids, which are the building blocks of proteins and therefore key components of life as we know it. But this unexpected finding is almost as exciting. The research is published in Proceedings of the National Academies of Science.

Among the molecules were decane, which has 10 carbon atoms and 22 hydrogen atoms, and dodecane, with 12 carbons and 26 hydrogen atoms. These are known as alkanes, which fall under the umbrella of the chemical compounds known as hydrocarbons.

It’s an exciting time in the search for life on Mars. In March this year, scientists presented evidence of features in a different rock sampled elsewhere on Mars by the Perseverance rover. These features, dubbed “leopard spots” and “poppy seeds,” could have been produced by the action of microbial life in the distant past, or not. The findings were presented at a US conference and have not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal.

NASA’s Curiosity rover has found the longest chain carbon molecules yet on Mars Read More »

Trump annoyed the Smithsonian isn’t promoting discredited racial ideas

eugenics, race, Racism, Science, scientific racism, Smithsonian, Trump / Tim Belzer / March 30, 2025

On Thursday, the Trump administration issued an executive order that took aim at one of the US’s foremost cultural and scientific institutions: the Smithsonian. Upset by exhibits that reference the role of racism, sexism, and more in the nation’s complicated past, the order tasks the vice president and a former insurance lawyer (?) with ensuring that the Smithsonian Institution is a “symbol of inspiration and American greatness”—a command that specifically includes the National Zoo.

But in the process of airing the administration’s grievances, the document specifically calls out a Smithsonian display for accurately describing our current scientific understanding of race. That raises the prospect that the vice president will ultimately demand that the Smithsonian display scientifically inaccurate information.

Grievance vs. science

The executive order, entitled “Restoring Truth And Sanity To American History,” is filled with what has become a standard grievance: the accusation that, by recognizing the many cases where the US has not lived up to its founding ideals, institutions are attempting to “rewrite our nation’s history.” It specifically calls out discussions of historic racism, sexism, and oppression as undercutting the US’s “unparalleled legacy of advancing liberty, individual rights, and human happiness.”

Even if you move past the obvious tension between a legacy of advancing liberty and the perpetuation of slavery in the US’s founding documents, there are other ironies here. For example, the order slams the Department of the Interior’s role in implementing changes that “inappropriately minimize the value of certain historical events or figures” at the same time that the administration’s policies have led to the removal of references to transgender individuals and minorities and women.

Trump annoyed the Smithsonian isn’t promoting discredited racial ideas Read More »

Rocket Report: Stoke is stoked; sovereignty is the buzzword in Europe

artemis II, european space agency, falcon 9, isar aerospace, launch, NASA, rocket lab, rocket report, Science, Space, space launch system, spacex, united launch alliance / Rejus Almole / March 30, 2025

“The idea that we will be able to do it through America… I think is very, very doubtful.”

Stoke Space’s Andromeda upper stage engine is hot-fired on a test stand. Credit: Stoke Space

Welcome to Edition 7.37 of the Rocket Report! It’s been interesting to watch how quickly European officials have embraced ensuring they have a space launch capability independent of other countries. A few years ago, European government satellites regularly launched on Russian Soyuz rockets, and more recently on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets from the United States. Russia is now non grata in European government circles, and the Trump administration is widening the trans-Atlantic rift. European leaders have cited the Trump administration and its close association with Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, as prime reasons to support sovereign access to space, a capability currently offered only by Arianespace. If European nations can reform how they treat their commercial space companies, there’s enough ambition, know-how, and money in Europe to foster a competitive launch industry.

As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Isar Aerospace aims for weekend launch. A German startup named Isar Aerospace will try to launch its first rocket Saturday, aiming to become the first in a wave of new European launch companies to reach orbit, Ars reports. The Spectrum rocket consists of two stages, stands about 92 feet (28 meters) tall, and can haul payloads up to 1 metric ton (2,200 pounds) into low-Earth orbit. Based in Munich, Isar was founded by three university graduate students in 2018. Isar scrubbed a launch attempt Monday due to unfavorable winds at the launch site in Norway.

From the Arctic … Notably, this will be the first orbital launch attempt from a launch pad in Western Europe. The French-run Guiana Space Center in South America is the primary spaceport for European rockets. Virgin Orbit staged an airborne launch attempt from an airport in the United Kingdom in 2023, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome is located in European Russia. The launch site for Isar is named Andøya Spaceport, located about 650 miles (1,050 kilometers) north of Oslo, inside the Arctic Circle. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

A chance for competition in Europe. The European Space Agency is inviting proposals to inject competition into the European launch market, an important step toward fostering a dynamic multiplayer industry officials hope one day will mimic that of the United States, Ars reports. The near-term plan for the European Launcher Challenge is for ESA to select companies for service contracts to transport ESA and other European government payloads to orbit from 2026 through 2030. A second component of the challenge is for companies to perform at least one demonstration of an upgraded launch vehicle by 2028. The competition is open to any European company working in the launch business.

Challenging the status quo … This is a major change from how ESA has historically procured launch services. Arianespace has been the only European launch provider available to ESA and other European institutions for more than 40 years. But there are private companies across Europe at various stages of developing their own small launchers, and potentially larger rockets, in the years ahead. With the European Launcher Challenge, ESA will provide each of the winners up to 169 million euros ($182 million), a significant cash infusion that officials hope will shepherd Europe’s nascent private launch industry toward liftoff. Companies like Isar Aerospace, Rocket Factory Augsburg, MaiaSpace, and PLD Space are among the contenders for ESA contracts.

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Rocket Lab launches eight satellites. Rocket Lab launched eight satellites Wednesday for a German company that is expanding its constellation to detect and track wildfires, Space News reports. An Electron rocket lifted off from New Zealand and completed deploying its payload of eight CubeSats for OroraTech about 55 minutes later, placing them into Sun-synchronous orbits at an altitude of about 341 miles (550 kilometers). This was Rocket Lab’s fifth launch of the year, and the third in less than two weeks.

Fire goggles … OroraTech launched three satellites before this mission, fusing data from those satellites and government missions to detect and track wildfires. The new satellites are designed to fill a gap in coverage in the afternoon, a peak time for wildfire formation and spread. OroraTech plans to launch eight more satellites later this year. Wildfire monitoring from space is becoming a new application for satellite technology. Last month, OroraTech partnered with Spire for a contract to build a CubeSat constellation called WildFireSat for the Canadian Space Agency. Google is backing FireSat, another constellation of more than 50 satellites to be deployed in the coming years to detect and track wildfires. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Should Britain have a sovereign launch capability? A UK House of Lords special inquiry committee has heard from industry experts on the importance of fostering a sovereign launch capability, European Spaceflight reports. On Monday, witnesses from the UK space industry testified that the nation shouldn’t rely on others, particularly the United States, to put satellites into orbit. “The idea that we will be able to do it through America… certainly in today’s, you know, the last 50 days, I think is very, very doubtful. The UK needs access to space,” said Scott Hammond, deputy CEO of SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland.

Looking inward … A representative from one of the most promising UK launch startups agreed. “Most people who are looking to launch are beholden to the United States solutions or services that are there,” said Alan Thompson, head of government affairs at Skyrora. “Without having our own home-based or UK-based service provider, we risk not having that voice and not being able to undertake all these experiments or be able to manifest ourselves better in space.” The UK is the only nation to abandon an independent launch capability after putting a satellite into orbit. The British government canceled the Black Arrow rocket in the early 1970s, citing financial reasons. A handful of companies, including Skyrora, is working to restore the orbital launch business to the UK.

This rocket engine CEO faces some salacious allegations. The Independent published what it described as an exclusive report Monday describing a lawsuit filed against the CEO of RocketStar, a New York-based company that says its mission is “improving upon the engines that power us to the stars.” Christopher Craddock is accused of plundering investor funds to underwrite pricey jaunts to Europe, jewelry for his wife, child support payments, and, according to the company’s largest investor, “airline tickets for international call girls to join him for clandestine weekends in Miami,” The Independent reports. Craddock established RocketStar in 2014 after financial regulators barred him from working on Wall Street over a raft of alleged violations.

Go big or go home … The $6 million lawsuit filed by former CEO Michael Mojtahedi alleges RocketStar “is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme… [that] has been predicated on Craddock’s ability to con new people each time the company has run out of money.” On its website, RocketStar says its work focuses on aerospike rocket engines and a “FireStar Fusion Drive, the world’s first electric propulsion device enhanced with nuclear fusion.” These are tantalizing technologies that have proven elusive for other rocket companies. RocketStar’s attorney told The Independent: “The company denies the allegations and looks forward to vindicating itself in court.”

Another record for SpaceX. Last Thursday, SpaceX launched a batch of clandestine SpaceX-built surveillance satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, Spaceflight Now reports. This was the latest in a series of flights populating the NRO’s constellation of low-Earth orbit reconnaissance satellites. What was unique about this mission was its use of a Falcon 9 first stage booster that flew to space just nine days prior with a NASA astronomy satellite. The successful launch broke the record for the shortest span between flights of the same Falcon 9 booster, besting a 13.5-day turnaround in November 2024.

A mind-boggling number of launches … This flight also marked the 450th launch of a Falcon 9 rocket since its debut in 2010, and the 139th within a 365-day period, despite suffering its first mission failure in nearly 10 years and a handful of other glitches. SpaceX’s launch pace is unprecedented in the history of the space industry. No one else is even close. In the last Rocket Report I authored, I wrote that SpaceX’s steamroller no longer seems to be rolling downhill. That may be the case as the growth in the Falcon 9 launch cadence has slowed, but it’s hard for me to see anyone else matching SpaceX’s launch rate until at least the 2030s.

Rocket Lab and Stoke Space find an on-ramp. Space Systems Command announced Thursday that it selected Rocket Lab and Stoke Space to join the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. The contracts have a maximum value of $5.6 billion, and the Space Force will dole out “task orders” for individual missions as they near launch. Rocket Lab and Stoke Space join SpaceX, ULA, and Blue Origin as eligible launch providers for lower-priority national security satellites, a segment of missions known as Phase 3 Lane 1 in the parlance of the Space Force. For these missions, the Space Force won’t require certification of the rockets, as the military does for higher-value missions in the so-called “Lane 2” segment. However, Rocket Lab and Stoke Space must complete at least one successful flight of their new Neutron and Nova rockets before they are cleared to launch national security payloads.

Stoked at Stoke … This is a big win for Rocket Lab and Stoke. For Rocket Lab, it bolsters the business case for the medium-class Neutron rocket it is developing for flights from Wallops Island, Virginia. Neutron will be partially reusable with a recoverable first stage. But Rocket Lab already has a proven track record with its smaller Electron launch vehicle. Stoke hasn’t launched anything, and it has lofty ambitions for a fully reusable two-stage rocket called Nova. This is a huge vote of confidence in Stoke. When the Space Force released its invitation for an on-ramp to the NSSL program last year, it said bidders must show a “credible plan for a first launch by December 2025.” Smart money is that neither company will launch its rockets by the end of this year, but I’d love to be proven wrong.

Falcon 9 deploys spy satellite. Monday afternoon, a SpaceX Falcon 9 took flight from Florida’s Space Coast and delivered a national security payload designed, built, and operated by the National Reconnaissance Office into orbit, Florida Today reports. Like almost all NRO missions, details about the payload are classified. The mission codename was NROL-69, and the launch came three-and-a-half days after SpaceX launched another NRO mission from California. While we have some idea of what SpaceX launched from California last week, the payload for the NROL-69 mission is a mystery.

Space sleuthing … There’s an online community of dedicated skywatchers who regularly track satellites as they sail overhead around dawn and dusk. The US government doesn’t publish the exact orbital parameters for its classified spy satellites (they used to), but civilian trackers coordinate with one another, and through a series of observations, they can produce a pretty good estimate of a spacecraft’s orbit. Marco Langbroek, a Dutch archeologist and university lecturer on space situational awareness, is one of the best at this, using publicly available information about the flight path of a launch to estimate when the satellite will fly overhead. He and three other observers in Europe managed to locate the NROL-69 payload just two days after the launch, plotting the object in an orbit between 700 and 1,500 kilometers at an inclination of 64.1 degrees to the equator. Analysts speculated this mission might carry a pair of naval surveillance spacecraft, but this orbit doesn’t match up well with any known constellations of NRO satellites.

NASA continues with Artemis II preps. Late Saturday night, technicians at Kennedy Space Center in Florida moved the core stage for NASA’s second Space Launch System rocket into position between the vehicle’s two solid-fueled boosters, Ars reports. Working inside the iconic 52-story-tall Vehicle Assembly Building, ground teams used heavy-duty cranes to first lift the butterscotch orange core stage from its cradle, then rotate it to a vertical orientation and lift it into a high bay, where it was lowered into position on a mobile launch platform. The 212-foot-tall (65-meter) core stage is the largest single hardware element for the Artemis II mission, which will send a team of four astronauts around the far side of the Moon and back to Earth as soon as next year.

Looking like a go … With this milestone, the slow march toward launch continues. A few months ago, some well-informed people in the space community thought there was a real possibility the Trump administration could quickly cancel NASA’s Space Launch System, the high-priced heavy-lifter designed to send astronauts from the Earth to the Moon. The most immediate possibility involved terminating the SLS program before it flies with Artemis II. This possibility appears to have been overcome by circumstances. The rockets most often mentioned as stand-ins for the Space Launch System—SpaceX’s Starship and Blue Origin’s New Glenn—aren’t likely to be cleared for crew missions for at least several years. The long-term future of the Space Launch System remains in doubt.

Space Force says Vulcan is good to go. The US Space Force on Wednesday announced that it has certified United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket to conduct national security missions, Ars reports. “Assured access to space is a core function of the Space Force and a critical element of national security,” said Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, program executive officer for Assured Access to Space, in a news release. “Vulcan certification adds launch capacity, resiliency, and flexibility needed by our nation’s most critical space-based systems.” The formal announcement closes a yearslong process that has seen multiple delays in the development of the Vulcan rocket, as well as two anomalies in recent years that were a further setback to certification.

Multiple options … This certification allows ULA’s Vulcan to launch the military’s most sensitive national security missions, a separate lot from those Rocket Lab and Stoke Space are now eligible for (as we report in a separate Rocket Report entry). It elevates Vulcan to launch these missions alongside SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. Vulcan will not be the next rocket that the company launches, however. First up is one of the company’s remaining Atlas V boosters, carrying Project Kuiper broadband satellites for Amazon. This launch could occur in April, although ULA has not set a date. This will be followed by the first Vulcan national security launch, which the Space Force says could occur during the coming “summer.”

Next three launches

March 29: Spectrum | “Going Full Spectrum” | Andøya Spaceport, Norway | 11: 30 UTC

March 29: Long March 7A | Unknown Payload | Wenchang Space Launch Site, China | 16: 05 UTC

March 30: Alpha | LM-400 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 13: 37 UTC

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet.

Rocket Report: Stoke is stoked; sovereignty is the buzzword in Europe Read More »

Beyond RGB: A new image file format efficiently stores invisible light data

Biz & IT, compression, data science, image compression, image formats, JPEG, jpeg xl, multispectrum images, Science, spectral imaging / Mike M. / March 29, 2025

Importantly, it then applies a weighting step, dividing higher-frequency spectral coefficients by the overall brightness (the DC component), allowing less important data to be compressed more aggressively. That is then fed into the codec, and rather than inventing a completely new file type, the method uses the compression engine and features of the standardized JPEG XL image format to store the specially prepared spectral data.

Making spectral images easier to work with

According to the researchers, the massive file sizes of spectral images have reportedly been a real barrier to adoption in industries that would benefit from their accuracy. Smaller files mean faster transfer times, reduced storage costs, and the ability to work with these images more interactively without specialized hardware.

The results reported by the researchers seem impressive—with their technique, spectral image files shrink by 10 to 60 times compared to standard OpenEXR lossless compression, bringing them down to sizes comparable to regular high-quality photos. They also preserve key OpenEXR features like metadata and high dynamic range support.

While some information is sacrificed in the compression process—making this a “lossy” format—the researchers designed it to discard the least noticeable details first, focusing compression artifacts in the less important high-frequency spectral details to preserve important visual information.

Of course, there are some limitations. Translating these research results into widespread practical use hinges on the continued development and refinement of the software tools that handle JPEG XL encoding and decoding. Like many cutting-edge formats, the initial software implementations may need further development to fully unlock every feature. It’s a work in progress.

And while Spectral JPEG XL dramatically reduces file sizes, its lossy approach may pose drawbacks for some scientific applications. Some researchers working with spectral data might readily accept the trade-off for the practical benefits of smaller files and faster processing. Others handling particularly sensitive measurements might need to seek alternative methods of storage.

For now, the new technique remains primarily of interest to specialized fields like scientific visualization and high-end rendering. However, as industries from automotive design to medical imaging continue generating larger spectral datasets, compression techniques like this could help make those massive files more practical to work with.

Beyond RGB: A new image file format efficiently stores invisible light data Read More »

Report: US scientists lost $3 billion in NIH grants since Trump took office

cures, funding, grants, health, NIH, research, Science / Mike M. / March 29, 2025

Since Trump took office on January 20, research funding from the National Institutes of Health has plummeted by more than $3 billion compared with the pace of funding in 2024, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.

By this time in March 2024, the NIH had awarded US researchers a total of $1.027 billion for new grants or competitive grant renewals. This year, the figure currently stands at about $400 million. Likewise, funding for renewals of existing grants without competition reached $4.5 billion by this time last year, but has only hit $2 billion this year. Together, this slowdown amounts to a 60 percent drop in grant support for a wide variety of research—from studies on cancer treatments, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, vaccines, mental health, transgender health, and more.

The NIH is the primary source of funding for biomedical research in the US. NIH grants support more than 300,000 scientists at more than 2,500 universities, medical schools, and other research organizations across all 50 states.

In the near term, the missing grant money means clinical trials have been abruptly halted, scientific projects are being shelved, supplies can’t be purchased, and experiments can’t be run. But, in the long run, it means a delay in scientific advancements and treatment, which could echo across future generations. With funding in question, academic researchers may be unable to retain staff or train younger scientists.

Report: US scientists lost $3 billion in NIH grants since Trump took office Read More »

Study of Lyft rideshare data confirms minorities get more tickets

bias, minorities, Science, speeding tickets, structural racism, tickets, traffic violations / Paul Patrick / March 28, 2025

Then, the researchers got data on all the speeding tickets issued in Florida and identified the ones belonging to Lyft drivers.

The data showed one thing clearly: Lyft has incentives for its drivers to avoid traffic violations, and they work. “Compared with the general population of motorists, our sample is less prone to speed, especially more than 10 mph over the limit,” the team writes. “As a result, our analysis examines only 1,423 citations for speeding.” While lower than you’d expect, that’s more than enough to do some statistics on the frequency of these citations.

Animus

There’s a lot of confounding factors that might influence whether someone gets pulled over and cited, like their gender, the make of their car, and so on. The researchers handle this in two ways. For one analysis, the researchers themselves chose a set of factors to include as potential confounding influences in an analysis. For the second, they relied on machine learning to determine the factors that would be considered in the analysis. Both approaches led to similar results.

The results clearly reproduced a similar pattern to earlier research. Minority Lyft drivers were about 30 percent more likely to be pulled over and cited for speeding (the two analyses produced results of 24 and 33 percent). Once cited, they were also likely to receive higher fines, either 23 or 34 percent more than white drivers.

The remaining question was why—the police could potentially be acting out of bias, or they could be attempting to deter minority drivers because they are more prone to problematic driving. So, the researchers compared the actual frequency of speeding based on the GPS data and used accidents as a proxy for problematic driving habits. Neither of these showed any significant differences between minorities and white drivers.

So, the researchers are left to conclude it’s simply because of what they call “animus” against minority drivers on the part of the police. And the problems go well beyond the impact of the fines themselves. The researchers note that most auto insurance policy providers give drivers discounts for avoiding traffic violations. Which suggests that minorities face the additional burden of paying more simply for being able to drive with insurance, something that’s legally required by US states.

Science, 2025. DOI: 10.1126/science.adp5357 (About DOIs).

Study of Lyft rideshare data confirms minorities get more tickets Read More »

“This will be a painful period”: RFK Jr. slashes 24% of US health dept.

CDC, fda, funding, health, HHS, NIH, reductions, research, robert f kennedy jr, Science, trump administration / Mike M. / March 28, 2025

Health Secretary and anti-vaccine advocate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is slashing a total of 20,000 jobs across the Department of Health and Human Services—or about 24 percent of the workforce—in a sweeping overhaul said to improve efficiency and save money, Kennedy and the HHS announced Thursday.

Combining workforce losses from early retirement, the “Fork in the Road” deferred resignation deal, and 10,000 positions axed in the reductions and restructuring announced today, HHS will shrink from 82,000 full-time employees to 62,000 under Kennedy and the Trump administration. The HHS’s 28 divisions will be cut down to 15, while five of the department’s 10 regional offices will close.

“This will be a painful period,” Kennedy said in a video announcement posted on social media. Calling the HHS a “sprawling bureaucracy,” Kennedy claimed that the cuts would be aimed at “excess administrators.”

“I want to promise you now that we are going to do more with less,” he said in the video.

Kennedy and HHS said the cuts will save $1.8 billion each year. That’s about 0.027 percent of total federal spending, based on the $6.75 trillion the government spent in 2024, and about 0.06 percent of the $2.8 trillion HHS budget for that year.

The downsizing announced today includes significant cuts to the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institutes of Health.

Cuts upon cuts

The FDA will lose 3,500 employees, which The Wall Street Journal reported was about 19 percent of its staff. HHS did not provide current staff levels at the agency level or percentage cuts. The CDC, which will absorb the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), will lose 2,400 employees (1,400 from CDC and 1,000 from ASPR). The Journal reported that to be about 18 percent of the total workforce. NIH will lose 1,200 employees, about 6 percent of its workers.

“This will be a painful period”: RFK Jr. slashes 24% of US health dept. Read More »

Researchers get spiking neural behavior out of a pair of transistors

materials science, neural networks, Science, semiconductor, silicon, spiking neurons / Paul Patrick / March 28, 2025

The team found that, when set up to operate on the verge of punch-through mode, it was possible to use the gate voltage to control the charge build-up in the silicon, either shutting the device down or enabling the spikes of activity that mimic neurons. Adjustments to this voltage could allow different frequencies of spiking. Those adjustments could be made using spikes as well, essentially allowing spiking activity to adjust the weights of different inputs.

With the basic concept working, the team figured out how to operate the hardware in two modes. In one of them, it acts like an artificial synapse, capable of being set into any of six (and potentially more) weights, meaning the potency of the signals it passes on to the artificial neurons in the next layer of a neural network. These weights are a key feature of neural networks like large language models.

But when combined with a second transistor to help modulate its behavior, it was possible to have the transistor act like a neuron, integrating inputs in a way that influenced the frequency of the spikes it sends on to other artificial neurons. The spiking frequency could range in intensity by as much as a factor of 1,000. And the behavior was stable for over 10 million clock cycles.

All of this simply required standard transistors made with CMOS processes, so this is something that could potentially be put into practice fairly quickly.

Pros and cons

So what advantages does this have? It only requires two transistors, meaning it’s possible to put a lot of these devices on a single chip. “From the synaptic perspective,” the researchers argue, “a single device could, in principle, replace static random access memory (a volatile memory cell comprising at least six transistors) in binarized weight neural networks, or embedded Flash in multilevel synaptic arrays, with the immediate advantage of a significant area and cost reduction per bit.”

Researchers get spiking neural behavior out of a pair of transistors Read More »

ESA finally has a commercial launch strategy, but will member states pay?

Commercial space, Europe, european space agency, launch, Science, Space / Rejus Almole / March 26, 2025

Late this year, European governments will have the opportunity to pay up or shut up.

The European Space Agency is inviting proposals to inject competition into the European launch market, an important step toward fostering a dynamic multiplayer industry officials hope, one day, will mimic that of the United States.

The near-term plan for the European Launcher Challenge is for ESA to select companies for service contracts to transport ESA and other European government payloads to orbit from 2026 through 2030. A second component of the challenge is for companies to perform at least one demonstration of an upgraded launch vehicle by 2028. The competition is open to any European company working in the launch business.

“What we expect is that these companies will make a step in improving and upgrading their capacity with respect to what they’re presently working,” said Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation.”In terms of economics and physics, it’s better to have a bigger launcher than a smaller launcher in terms of price per kilogram to orbit.”

“The ultimate goal is we should be establishing privately-developed competitive launch services in Europe, which will allow us to procure launch services in open competition,” Tolker-Nielsen said in an interview with Ars.

From one to many?

ESA and other European institutions currently have just one European provider, Arianespace, to award launch contracts for the continent’s scientific, Earth observation, navigation, and military satellites. Arianespace operates the Ariane 6 and Vega C rockets. Vega C operations will soon be taken over by the Italian aerospace company Avio. Both rockets were developed with ESA funding.

The launcher challenge is modeled on NASA’s use of commercial contracting methods beginning nearly 20 years ago with the agency’s commercial cargo program, which kickstarted the development of SpaceX’s Dragon and Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus resupply freighters for the International Space Station. NASA later applied the same model to commercial crew, and most recently for commercial lunar landers.

Uncharacteristically for ESA, the agency is taking a hands-off approach for the launcher challenge. One of the few major requirements is that the winners should offer a “European launch service” that flies from European territory, which includes the French-run Guiana Space Center in South America.

Europe’s second Ariane 6 rocket lifted off March 6 with a French military spy satellite. Credit: European Space Agency

“We are trying something different, where they are completely free to organize themselves,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “We are not pushing anything. We are in a complete service-oriented model here. That’s the principal difference between the new approach and the old approach.”

ESA also isn’t setting requirements on launcher performance, reusability, or the exact number of companies it will select in the challenge. But ESA would like to limit the number of challengers “to a minimum” to ensure the agency’s support is meaningful, without spreading its funding too thin, Tolker-Nielsen said.

“For the ESA-developed launchers, which are Ariane 6 and Vega C, we own the launch system,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “We finished the development, and the deliverables were the launch systems that we own at ESA, and we make it available to an operator—Arianespace, and Avio soon for Vega C—to exploit.”

These ESA-led launcher projects were expensive. The development of Ariane 6 cost European governments more than $4 billion. Ariane 6 is now flying, but none of the up-and-coming European alternatives are operational.

Next steps

It’s taken a while to set up the European Launcher Challenge, which won preliminary approval from ESA’s 23 member states at a ministerial-level meeting in 2023. ESA released an “invitation to tender” soliciting proposals from European launch companies Monday, with submissions due by May 5. This summer, ESA expects to select the top proposals and prepare a funding package for consideration by its member states at the next ministerial meeting in November.

The top factors ESA will consider in this first phase of the challenge are each proposer’s business plan, technical credibility, and financial credibility.

In a statement, ESA said it has allotted up to 169 million euros ($182 million at today’s exchange rates) per challenger. This is significant funding for Europe’s crop of cash-hungry launch startups, each of which have raised no more than a few hundred million euros. But this allotment comes with a catch. ESA’s leaders and the winners of the launch challenge must persuade their home governments to pay up.

Let’s take a moment to compare Europe’s launch industry with the United States.

There are multiple viable US commercial launch companies. In the United States, it’s easier to attract venture capital, the government has been a more reliable proponent of commercial spaceflight, and billionaires are part of the launch landscape. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, dominates the market. Jeff Bezos’s space company, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance are also big players with heavy-lift rockets.

Rocket Lab and Firefly Aerospace fly smaller privately-developed launchers. Northrop Grumman’s medium-class launch division is currently in between rockets, although it still occasionally launches small US military satellites on Minotaur rockets derived from decommissioned ICBMs.

Of course, it’s not surprising the sum of US launch companies is higher than in Europe. According to the World Bank, the US economy is about 50 percent larger than that of the European Union. But six American companies with operational orbital rockets, compared to one in Europe today? That is woefully out of proportion.

Carlos Mazón, president of autonomous community of Valencia in Spain, visits the facilities of PLD Space in January. PLD Space is one of the European launch startups that might contend in the European Launcher Challenge. Credit: Joaquin Reina/Europa Press via Getty Images

European officials would like to regain a leading position in the global commercial launch market. With SpaceX’s dominance, that’s a tall hill to climb. At the very least, European politicians don’t want to rely on other countries for access to space. In the last three years, they’ve seen their access to Russian launchers dry up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and after signing a few launch contracts with SpaceX to bridge the gap before the first flight of Ariane 6, they now view the US government and Elon Musk as unreliable partners.

Open your checkbook, please

ESA’s governance structure isn’t favorable for taking quick action. On one hand, ESA member states approve the agency’s budget in multiyear increments, giving its projects a sense of stability over time. However, it takes time to get new projects approved, and ESA’s member states expect to receive benefits—jobs, investment, and infrastructure—commensurate with their spending on European space programs. This policy is known as geographical return, or geo-return.

For example, France has placed a high strategic importance on fielding an independent European launch capability for more than 60 years. The administration of French President Charles de Gaulle made this determination during the Cold War, around the same time he decided France should have a nuclear deterrent fully independent of the United States and NATO.

In order to match this policy, France has been more willing than other European nations to invest in launchers. This means the Ariane rocket family, developed and funded through ESA contracts, has been largely a French enterprise since the first Ariane launch in 1979.

This model is becoming antiquated in the era of commercial spaceflight. Startups across Europe, primarily in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Spain, are developing small launchers designed to carry up to 1.5 metric tons of payload to low-Earth orbit. This is too small to directly compete with the Ariane 6 rocket, but eventually, these companies would like to develop larger launchers.

Some European officials, including the former head of the French space agency, blamed geo-return as a reason the Ariane 6 rocket missed its price target.

Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s acting director of space transportation, speaks at an event in 2021. Credit: ESA/V. Stefanelli

With the European Launcher Challenge, ESA will experiment with a new funding model for the first time. This new “fair contribution” approach will see ESA leadership put forward a plan to its member states at the next big ministerial conference in November. The space agency will ask the countries that benefit most from the winners of the launcher challenge to provide the bulk of the funding for the challengers’ contracts.

So, let’s say Isar Aerospace, which is set to launch its first rocket as soon as this week, is one of the challenge winners. Isar is headquartered in Munich, and its current launch site is in Norway. In this case, expect ESA to ask the governments of Germany and Norway to contribute the most money to pay for Isar’s contract.

MaiaSpace, a French subsidiary of ArianeGroup, the parent company of Arianespace, is also a contender in the launcher challenge. MaiaSpace plans to launch from French Guiana. Therefore, if MaiaSpace gets a contract, France would be on the hook for the lion’s share of the deal’s funding.

Tolker-Nielsen said he anticipates a “number” of the launch challengers will win the backing of their home countries in November, but “maybe not all.”

“So, first there is this criteria that they have to be eligible, and then they have to be funded as well,” he said. “We don’t want to propose funding for companies that we don’t see as credible.”

Assuming the challengers’ contracts get funded, ESA will then work with the European Commission to assign specific satellites to launch on the new commercial rockets.

“The way I look at this is we are not going to choose winners,” Tolker-Nielsen said. “The challenge is not the competition we are doing right now. It is to deliver on the contract. That’s the challenge.”

ESA finally has a commercial launch strategy, but will member states pay? Read More »