Science

researchers-find-what-makes-ai-chatbots-politically-persuasive

Researchers find what makes AI chatbots politically persuasive


A massive study of political persuasion shows AIs have, at best, a weak effect.

Roughly two years ago, Sam Altman tweeted that AI systems would be capable of superhuman persuasion well before achieving general intelligence—a prediction that raised concerns about the influence AI could have over democratic elections.

To see if conversational large language models can really sway political views of the public, scientists at the UK AI Security Institute, MIT, Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, and many other institutions performed by far the largest study on AI persuasiveness to date, involving nearly 80,000 participants in the UK. It turned out political AI chatbots fell far short of superhuman persuasiveness, but the study raises some more nuanced issues about our interactions with AI.

AI dystopias

The public debate about the impact AI has on politics has largely revolved around notions drawn from dystopian sci-fi. Large language models have access to essentially every fact and story ever published about any issue or candidate. They have processed information from books on psychology, negotiations, and human manipulation. They can rely on absurdly high computing power in huge data centers worldwide. On top of that, they can often access tons of personal information about individual users thanks to hundreds upon hundreds of online interactions at their disposal.

Talking to a powerful AI system is basically interacting with an intelligence that knows everything about everything, as well as almost everything about you. When viewed this way, LLMs can indeed appear kind of scary. The goal of this new gargantuan AI persuasiveness study was to break such scary visions down into their constituent pieces and see if they actually hold water.

The team examined 19 LLMs, including the most powerful ones like three different versions of ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok-3 beta, along with a range of smaller, open source models. The AIs were asked to advocate for or against specific stances on 707 political issues selected by the team. The advocacy was done by engaging in short conversations with paid participants enlisted through a crowdsourcing platform. Each participant had to rate their agreement with a specific stance on an assigned political issue on a scale from 1 to 100 both before and after talking to the AI.

Scientists measured persuasiveness as the difference between the before and after agreement ratings. A control group had conversations on the same issue with the same AI models—but those models were not asked to persuade them.

“We didn’t just want to test how persuasive the AI was—we also wanted to see what makes it persuasive,” says Chris Summerfield, a research director at the UK AI Security Institute and co-author of the study. As the researchers tested various persuasion strategies, the idea of AIs having “superhuman persuasion” skills crumbled.

Persuasion levers

The first pillar to crack was the notion that persuasiveness should increase with the scale of the model. It turned out that huge AI systems like ChatGPT or Grok-3 beta do have an edge over small-scale models, but that edge is relatively tiny. The factor that proved more important than scale was the kind of post-training AI models received. It was more effective to have the models learn from a limited database of successful persuasion dialogues and have them mimic the patterns extracted from them. This worked far better than adding billions of parameters and sheer computing power.

This approach could be combined with reward modeling, where a separate AI scored candidate replies for their persuasiveness and selected the top-scoring one to give to the user. When the two were used together, the gap between large-scale and small-scale models was essentially closed. “With persuasion post-training like this we matched the Chat GPT-4o persuasion performance with a model we trained on a laptop,” says Kobi Hackenburg, a researcher at the UK AI Security Institute and co-author of the study.

The next dystopian idea to fall was the power of using personal data. To this end, the team compared the persuasion scores achieved when models were given information about the participants’ political views beforehand and when they lacked this data. Going one step further, scientists also tested whether persuasiveness increased when the AI knew the participants’ gender, age, political ideology, or party affiliation. Just like with model scale, the effects of personalized messaging created based on such data were measurable but very small.

Finally, the last idea that didn’t hold up was AI’s potential mastery of using advanced psychological manipulation tactics. Scientists explicitly prompted the AIs to use techniques like moral reframing, where you present your arguments using the audience’s own moral values. They also tried deep canvassing, where you hold extended empathetic conversations with people to nudge them to reflect on and eventually shift their views.

The resulting persuasiveness was compared with that achieved when the same models were prompted to use facts and evidence to back their claims or just to be as persuasive as they could without specifying any persuasion methods to use. I turned out using lots of facts and evidence was the clear winner, and came in just slightly ahead of the baseline approach where persuasion strategy was not specified. Using all sorts of psychological trickery actually made the performance significantly worse.

Overall, AI models changed the participants’ agreement ratings by 9.4 percent on average compared to the control group. The best performing mainstream AI model was Chat GPT 4o, which scored nearly 12 percent followed by GPT 4.5 with 10.51 percent, and Grok-3 with 9.05 percent. For context, static political ads like written manifestos had a persuasion effect of roughly 6.1 percent. The conversational AIs were roughly 40–50 percent more convincing than these ads, but that’s hardly “superhuman.”

While the study managed to undercut some of the common dystopian AI concerns, it highlighted a few new issues.

Convincing inaccuracies

While the winning “facts and evidence” strategy looked good at first, the AIs had some issues with implementing it. When the team noticed that increasing the information density of dialogues made the AIs more persuasive, they started prompting the models to increase it further. They noticed that, as the AIs used more factual statements, they also became less accurate—they basically started misrepresenting things or making stuff up more often.

Hackenburg and his colleagues note that  we can’t say if the effect we see here is causation or correlation—whether the AIs are becoming more convincing because they misrepresent the facts or whether spitting out inaccurate statements is a byproduct of asking them to make more factual statements.

The finding that the computing power needed to make an AI model politically persuasive is relatively low is also a mixed bag. It pushes back against the vision that only a handful of powerful actors will have access to a persuasive AI that can potentially sway public opinion in their favor. At the same time, the realization that everybody can run an AI like that on a laptop creates its own concerns. “Persuasion is a route to power and influence—it’s what we do when we want to win elections or broke a multi-million-dollar deal,” Summerfield says. “But many forms of misuse of AI might involve persuasion. Think about fraud or scams, radicalization, or grooming. All these involve persuasion.”

But perhaps the most important question mark in the  study is the motivation behind the rather high participant engagement, which was needed for the high persuasion scores. After all, even the most persuasive AI can’t move you when you just close the chat window.

People in Hackenburg’s experiments were told that they would be talking to the AI and that the AI would try to persuade them. To get paid, a participant only had to go through two turns of dialogue (they were limited to no more than 10). The average conversation length was seven turns, which seemed a bit surprising given how far beyond the minimum requirement most people went. Most people just roll their eyes and disconnect when they realize they are talking with a chatbot.

Would Hackenburg’s study participants remain so eager to engage in political disputes with random chatbots on the Internet in their free time if there was no money on the table? “It’s unclear how our results would generalize to a real-world context,” Hackenburg says.

Science, 2025. DOI: 10.1126/science.aea3884

Photo of Jacek Krywko

Jacek Krywko is a freelance science and technology writer who covers space exploration, artificial intelligence research, computer science, and all sorts of engineering wizardry.

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Welcome to “necroprinting”—3D printer nozzle made from mosquito’s proboscis

“To integrate the proboscis, we first removed it from an already euthanized mosquito under a microscope,” Cao explains. Then the proboscis/nozzle was aligned with the outlet of the plastic tip. Finally, the proboscis and the tip were bonded with UV-curable resin.

The necroprinter achieved a resolution ranging from 18 to 22 microns, which was two times smaller than the printers using the smallest commercially available metal dispensing tips. The first print tests included honeycomb structures measuring 600 microns, a microscale maple leaf, and scaffolds for cells.

But there were still areas in which human-made technology managed to beat Mother Nature.

Glass and pressure

The first issue with mosquito nozzles was their relatively low resistance to internal pressure. “It was impressive but still too low to accommodate some high viscosity inks,” Cao said.

These inks, which look more like a paste than a typical fluid, hold shape better, which translates into more geometrically accurate models that do not slump or spread under their own weight. This was a problem that Cao’s test prints experienced to an extent.

But this wasn’t the only area where human-made technology managed to beat nature. While mosquito nozzles could outperform plastic or metal alternatives in precision, they could not outperform glass dispensing tips, which can print lines below one micron across and withstand significantly higher pressures.

The researchers already have some ideas about how to bridge at least a part of this gap, though. “One possible solution is to use mosquito proboscis as the core and coat it with ceramic layers to provide much higher strength,” Cao said. And if the pressure problem is solved, the 18–22 microns resolution should be good enough for plenty of things.

Cao thinks that in the future, printers like this could be used to print scaffolds for living cells or microscopic electronic components. The idea is to replace expensive, traditional 3D printing nozzles with more affordable organic counterparts. The key advantages of mosquito nozzles, he says, are low cost and ubiquity.

Mosquitoes live almost everywhere on Earth and are easy to rear. The team estimates that organic 3D printing nozzles made from mosquito proboscises should cost around 80 cents; the glass and metal alternatives, the researchers state in the paper, cost between 32 and 100 times more.

“We already started doing more research on mosquitoes themselves and hope to develop more engineering solutions, not only to leverage their deceased bodies but also to solve practical problems they cause,” Cao said.

Science Advances, 2025. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adw9953

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humans-in-southern-africa-were-an-isolated-population-until-recently

Humans in southern Africa were an isolated population until recently

Collectively, the genetic variants in this population are outside the range of previously described human diversity. That’s despite the fact that the present-day southern African hunter-gatherer populations are largely derived from southern African ancestors.

What’s distinct?

Estimates of the timing of when this ancient south African population branched off from any modern-day populations place the split at over 200,000 years ago, or roughly around the origin of modern humans themselves. But this wasn’t some odd, isolated group; estimates of population size based on the frequency of genetic variation suggest it was substantial.

Instead, the researchers suggest that climate and geography kept the group separate from other African populations and that southern Africa may have served as a climate refuge, providing a safe area from which modern humans could expand out to the rest of the continent when conditions were favorable. That’s consistent with the finding that some of the ancient populations in eastern and western Africa contain some southern African variants by around 5,000 years ago.

As far as genetic traits are concerned, the population looked like pretty much everyone else present at the time: brown eyes, high skin pigmentation, and no lactose tolerance. None of the older individuals had genetic resistance to malaria or sleeping sickness that are found in modern populations. In terms of changes that affect proteins, the most common are found in genes involved in immune function, a pattern that’s seen in many other human populations. More unusually, genes that affect kidney function also show a lot of variation.

So there’s nothing especially distinctive or modern apparent in this population, especially not in comparison to any other populations we know of in Africa at the same time. But they are unusual in that they suggest there was a large, stable, and isolated group from other populations present in Africa at the time. Over time, we’ll probably get additional evidence that fits this population into a coherent picture of human evolution. But for now, its presence is a bit of an enigma, given how often other populations intermingled in our past.

Nature, 2025. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09811-4  (About DOIs).

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Rare win for renewable energy: Trump admin funds geothermal network expansion

Progress on the project is a further indicator that, despite opposition to wind and solar, the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress appear to back geothermal energy.

President Donald Trump issued an executive order on his first day in office declaring an energy emergency that expressed support for a limited mix of energy resources, including fossil fuels, nuclear power, biofuels, hydropower, and geothermal energy. 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by Republicans and signed by Trump in July, quickly phases out tax credits for wind, solar, and electric vehicles. However, the bill left geothermal heating and cooling tax credits approved under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 largely intact.

A reorganization of the US Department of Energy announced last month eliminated the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy but kept the office for geothermal energy as part of the newly created Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy Office.

“The fact that geothermal is on this administration’s agenda is pretty impactful,” said Nikki Bruno, vice president for thermal solutions and operational services at Eversource Energy. “It means they believe in it. It’s a bipartisan technology.”

Plans for the expansion project call for roughly doubling Framingham’s geothermal network capacity at approximately half the cost of the initial buildout. Part of the estimated cost savings will come from using existing equipment rather than duplicating it.

“You’ve already got all the pumping and control infrastructure installed, so you don’t need to build a new pump house,” said Eric Bosworth, a geothermal expert who runs the consultancy Thermal Energy Insights. Bosworth oversaw the construction of the initial geothermal network in Framingham while working for Eversource.

The network’s efficiency is anticipated to increase as it grows, requiring fewer boreholes to expand. That improvement is due to the different heating and cooling needs of individual buildings, ​​which increasingly balance each other out as the network grows, Magavi said.

The project still awaits approval from state regulators, with Eversource aiming to start construction by the end of 2026, Bruno said.

“What we’re witnessing is the birth of a new utility,” Magavi said. Geothermal networks “can help us address energy security, affordability, and so many other challenges.”

This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization that covers climate, energy, and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.

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3D model shows small clans created Easter Island statues

Credit: ArcGIS

Easter Island is famous for its giant monumental statues, called moai, built some 800 years ago. The volcanic rock used for the moai came from a quarry site called Rano Raraku. Archaeologists have created a high-resolution interactive 3D model of the quarry site to learn more about the processes used to create the moai. (You can explore the full interactive model here.) According to a paper published in the journal PLoS ONE, the model shows that there were numerous independent groups, probably family clans, that created the moai, rather than a centralized management system.

“You can see things that you couldn’t actually see on the ground. You can see tops and sides and all kinds of areas that just would never be able to walk to,” said co-author Carl Lipo of Binghamton University. “We can say, ‘Here, go look at it.’ If you want to see the different kinds of carving, fly around and see stuff there. We’re documenting something that really has needed to be documented, but in a way that’s really comprehensive and shareable.”

Lipo is one of the foremost experts on the Easter Island moai. In October, we reported on Lipo’s experimental confirmation—based on 3D modeling of the physics and new field tests to re-create that motion—that Easter Island’s people transported the statues in a vertical position, with workers using ropes to essentially “walk” the moai onto their platforms. To explain the presence of so many moai, the assumption has been that the island was once home to tens of thousands of people.

Lipo’s latest field trials showed that the “walking” method can be accomplished with far fewer workers: 18 people, four on each lateral rope and 10 on a rear rope, to achieve the side-to-side walking motion. They were efficient enough in coordinating their efforts to move the statue forward 100 meters in just 40 minutes. That’s because the method operates on basic pendulum dynamics, which minimizes friction between the base and the ground. It’s also a technique that exploits the gradual build-up of amplitude, suggesting a sophisticated understanding of resonance principles.

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the-missile-meant-to-strike-fear-in-russia’s-enemies-fails-once-again

The missile meant to strike fear in Russia’s enemies fails once again

Therefore, it’s no wonder Russian officials like to talk up Sarmat’s capabilities. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called Sarmat a “truly unique weapon” that will “provide food for thought for those who, in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country.” Dmitry Rogozin, then the head of Russia’s space agency, called the Sarmat missile a “superweapon” after its first test flight in 2022.

So far, what’s unique about the Sarmat missile is its propensity for failure. The missile’s first full-scale test flight in 2022 apparently went well, but the program has suffered a string of consecutive failures since then, most notably a catastrophic explosion last year that destroyed the Sarmat missile’s underground silo in northern Russia.

The Sarmat is supposed to replace Russia’s aging R-36M2 strategic ICBM fleet, which was built in Ukraine. The RS-28, sometimes called the Satan II, is a “product solely of Russian industry cooperation,” according to Russia’s Ministry of Defense.

The video of the missile failure last week lacks the resolution to confirm whether it was a Sarmat missile or the older-model R-36M2, analysts agree it was most likely a Sarmat. The missile silo used for Friday’s test was recently renovated, perhaps to convert it to support Sarmat tests after the destruction of the new missile’s northern launch site last year.

“Work there began in Spring 2025, after the ice thawed,” wrote Etienne Marcuz, an analyst on strategic armaments at the Foundation for Strategic Research, a French think tank. The “urgent renovation” of the missile silo at Dombarovsky lends support for the hypothesis that last week’s accident involved the Sarmat, and not the R-36M2, which was last tested more than 10 years ago, Marcuz wrote on X.

“If this is indeed another Sarmat failure, it would be highly detrimental to the medium-term future of Russian deterrence,” Marcuz continued. “The aging R-36M2 missiles, which carry a significant portion of Russia’s strategic warheads, are seeing their replacement pushed even further into the future, while their maintenance—previously handled by Ukraine until 2014—remains highly uncertain.”

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state media agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on November 5, 2025. Credit: Gavriil Grigorov/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Podvig, the UN researcher who also runs the Russian Nuclear Forces blog site, agrees with Marcuz’s conclusions. With the R-36M2 missile soon to retire, “it is extremely unlikely that the Rocket Forces would want to test launch them,” Podvig wrote on his website. “This leaves Sarmat.”

The failure adds fresh uncertainty to the readiness of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. If this were actually a test of one of Russia’s older ICBMs, the result would raise questions about hardware decay and obsolescence. In the more likely case of a Sarmat test flight, it would be the latest in a series of problems that have delayed its entry into service since 2018.

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in-myanmar,-illicit-rare-earth-mining-is-taking-a-heavy-toll

In Myanmar, illicit rare-earth mining is taking a heavy toll


Uncontrolled mining in areas of Myanmar ruled by powerful ethnic armies has boomed.

This photo taken on May 2, 2025 shows a general view of a China-backed battery metal mine in Pekon township in Myanmar’s eastern Shan State. Credit: STR/AFP via Getty Images

In early 2025, Sian traveled deep into the mountains of Shan State, on Myanmar’s eastern border with China, in search of work. He had heard from a friend that Chinese companies were recruiting at new rare-earth mining sites in territory administered by the United Wa State Army, Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed group, and that workers could earn upwards of $1,400 a month.

It was an opportunity too good to pass up in a country where the formal economy has collapsed since the 2021 military coup, and nearly half of the population lives on less than $2 a day. So Sian set off by car for the town of Mong Pawk, then rode a motorbike for hours through the thick forest.

Hired for daily wages of approximately $21, he now digs boreholes and installs pipes. It is the first step in a process called in situ leaching, which involves injecting acidic solutions into mountainsides, then collecting the drained solution in plastic-lined pools where solids, like dysprosium and terbium, two of the world’s most sought-after heavy rare-earth metals, settle out. The resulting sediment sludge is then transported to furnaces and burned, producing dry rare earth oxides.

As geopolitics scrambles supply chains and global demand for rare earths has mushroomed, mining for these materials is on the rise in Myanmar, where thousands of laborers like Sian are flocking to mine sites on the country’s eastern border with China. But the extraction and processing of rare earths is taking an increasing toll on the mine workers, nearby communities, and the environment. “The toxic effects of rare-earth mining are devastating, with poisoned rivers, contaminated soil, sickness, and displacement,” said Jasnea Sarma, an ethnographer and political geographer at the University of Zurich.

China holds most of the world’s rare-earth processing facilities, but since the early 2010s it has tightened restrictions on domestic extraction as its impacts have become apparent. Rare-earth mining has since expanded just over China’s southwestern border in Myanmar, where labor is cheap and environmental regulations are weak.

The industry is highly secretive. But this September, a journalist from Myanmar, who prefers not to be named for security reasons, visited rare-earth mining sites in Wa territory near Mong Pawk for this article. This reporting confirmed that rare-earth mining overseen by Chinese companies is rapidly expanding in Wa territory, and it provides firsthand details of the many ways this activity contaminates water sources and contributes to deforestation, damage to human health, and loss of livelihoods.

The 17 elements known as rare earths are distributed widely across the Earth’s crust, but they are extracted in relatively few places due to ecological, geopolitical, and economic constraints. Used in electric vehicles and wind turbines, rare earths are also needed for the production of military hardware and other advanced technologies.

Rare earths are designated as “critical minerals” by many of the world’s superpowers — vital to economies and national security but vulnerable to supply chain disruption. They are also a key commodity in the trade war between the United States and China, which has tightened rare-earth export restrictions over the past year in response to escalating tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

China still processes most of the world’s rare earths, but its import data shows that a significant portion of the raw material is mined in Myanmar. This makes Myanmar one of the global rare-earth mining boom’s largest sacrifice zones—defined by researchers and environmental justice advocates as places that disproportionately endure the harmful effects of extraction so that others may benefit.

No publicly accessible corporate databases show the licensing of active rare-earth mining operations in Myanmar. But Chinese customs data indicates that approximately two-thirds of its rare-earth imports came from Myanmar between 2017 and 2024, according to research conducted by the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, a think tank based in Thailand.

Satellite image analysis conducted by the nonprofit Myanmar Witness, in partnership with the Myanmar media outlet Mizzima, also reveals hundreds of rare-earth mining sites on the country’s eastern border. The area is home to Indigenous communities who have been at odds with central military authorities since the country’s independence from Britain in 1948. For decades, the military has negotiated ceasefires with ethnic armies while allowing them to engage in a range of cross-border enterprises, sometimes while taking a cut of the profits.

“This borderland has seen one extractive wave after another: teak, opium, jade, amber, bananas, and now these so-called green minerals,” said Sarma. “Ethnic armies have to do business with China to survive. China needs the resources, and local communities, after decades of conflict, depend on this to live.”

As the rule of law deteriorated following Myanmar’s 2021 coup, the pillaging of its natural resources accelerated. In October 2024, an ethnic army fighting the military seized the rare-earth mining hub of Pangwa, in Kachin State, from a military-aligned warlord, and China, which arms and supports the Myanmar military, closed its gate into the town. More than a year later, rare-earth mining in Kachin has yet to fully resume, while areas of Shan State—controlled by the United Wa State Army and another ethnic army with close ties to China—appear poised to emerge as new rare-earth mining frontiers.

“What began as discovery has moved into full extraction […] pulled by proximity to China,” said Xu Peng, a postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for the Study of Illicit Economies, Violence, and Development at SOAS University of London.

Earlier this year, the Shan Human Rights Foundation, a local civil society organization, used satellite images to expose rare-earth mining in Shan State for the first time. This research, alongside further satellite analysis conducted by the Stimson Center, a Washington, DC-based think tank, revealed 63 rare-earth mining sites near the Chinese border and two sites bordering Thailand. Some of these sites were established as early as 2015 and may no longer be operational, but most emerged after the coup.

The news of these Shan State mines sparked public outcry in Thailand, where chemicals associated with rare-earth mining have heavily contaminated rivers relied upon for drinking water, agriculture, and fishing. But no such response has emerged in Shan State, where mining companies and armed authorities keep a tight lid on information, including the names of the Chinese companies operating there.

Businesses involved in Myanmar’s rare-earth mining industry have reason to be secretive: Their operations put people and the environment at risk. “This year, there was an accident during excavation and a worker was buried,” said Sian. “Only later, after the soil was washed away by heavy rain and landslides, was his body recovered.” In 2023 and 2024, local media outlets documented the death or disappearance of dozens of workers in three landslides in Kachin State.

Research published in March by scholars at the University of Warwick and the Kachinland Research Center, based in Kachin State, attributed these landslides to “large-scale deforestation,” undertaken to both clear land for mines and supply firewood for the furnaces used to convert sediment sludge to dry rare-earth oxides—a process that can take 48 to 72 hours. Another factor contributing to landslides, the researchers found, was the injection of water and leaching agents into the hillsides.

Workers in Shan State described fragile landscapes. “The environment near the site faces constant problems like landslides, mountain collapses, and stream flooding, especially during the rainy season,” said an on-site cook, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Large trucks often fall into sinkholes. The ground is soft, which sometimes leads to fatal accidents.”

Chemical exposure and the inhalation of toxic particles are also major concerns. “Many workers suffer from lung issues,” said Sian. “Because of contact with acid, some workers also develop rashes, redness, itching, or chemical burns on their skin and eyes.”

Nearby communities also feel the impacts. “Many households reported more frequent respiratory illnesses, skin conditions, and headaches, which they believe are linked to pollution from nearby mining activities and dust from deforestation,” said the journalist who visited Wa for this article. “In some villages, families said children and elderly people are especially affected. They worry that contaminated water sources from mining operations are harming both their health and their livelihoods.”

Research conducted by Myanmar Resource Watch, a civil society organization, found that companies mining rare earths in Myanmar rely on a wide range of chemicals classified as hazardous—including sulfuric, nitric, and hydrochloric acids—and that these companies routinely violate regulations on the chemicals’ import, transport, storage, use, and disposal. Not only can hydrochloric acid kill aquatic life, it also dissolves heavy metals, like cadmium, lead, arsenic, and mercury, and radioactive materials, like thorium and uranium, from soil and rocks.

While no quantitative studies have been published on the environmental impacts of rare-earth mining in Shan State, research from Kachin State offers some indication of the potential risks. In April, Tanapon Phenrat of Thailand’s Naresuan University published a study based on analysis of surface water and topsoil samples taken at or downstream from rare-earth mining sites in Kachin. He identified “severe contamination” of the water, “extremely acidic pH levels,” and “alarmingly high concentrations” of ammonia, chloride, radioactive elements, and toxic heavy metals.

He also found that metals and metalloids present in water samples posed “substantial risk” to aquatic ecosystems and that the water at some of the testing sites was “entirely unsuitable for human consumption, irrigation, or fish culture without extensive treatment.”

Rare-earth elements themselves can also adversely impact human health, according to secondary research published in 2024 in the journal Toxics. This review found that exposure to rare-earth elements through inhalation, ingestion, or skin contact can destroy organ structure and function, affecting the respiratory, nervous, cardiovascular, reproductive, and immune systems.

“Right now, the way these minerals are governed often overlooks a major problem,” said Thaw Htoo, a PhD candidate of geography and sustainability at the University of Lausanne who conducts her research using a pseudonym due to safety concerns. “They are essential for the global green transition, yet their extraction is happening with almost no rules. The case of Myanmar shows why we need to rethink what ‘critical minerals’ means and make sure we consider not only supply security, but also the safety and well-being of communities and the environment.”

Emily Fishbein is a freelance journalist currently serving as a Pulitzer Center Rainforest Investigations Network fellow. Jauman Naw is a freelance investigative journalist from Kachin State, Myanmar, who focuses on environmental issues. He writes under a pseudonym for his safety. This article was originally published on Undark. Read the original article.

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research-roundup:-6-cool-stories-we-almost-missed

Research roundup: 6 cool stories we almost missed


The assassination of a Hungarian duke, why woodpeckers grunt when they peck, and more.

Skull of remains found in a 13th century Dominican monastery on Margaret Island, Budapest, Hungary Credit: Eötvös Loránd University

It’s a regrettable reality that there is never enough time to cover all the interesting scientific stories we come across each month. In the past, we’ve featured year-end roundups of cool science stories we (almost) missed. This year, we’re experimenting with a monthly collection. November’s list includes forensic details of the medieval assassination of a Hungarian duke, why woodpeckers grunt when they peck, and more evidence that X’s much-maligned community notes might actually help combat the spread of misinformation after all.

An assassinated medieval Hungarian duke

The observed perimortem lesions on the human remains (CL=cranial lesion, PL= Postcranial lesion). The drawing of the skeleton was generated using OpenAI’s image generation tools (DALL·E) via ChatGPT.

Credit: Tamás Hajdu et al., 2026

Back in 1915, archaeologists discovered the skeletal remains of a young man in a Dominican monastery on Margaret Island in Budapest, Hungary. The remains were believed to be those of Duke Bela of Masco, grandson of the medieval Hungarian King Bela IV. Per historical records, the young duke was brutally assassinated in 1272 by a rival faction and his mutilated remains were recovered by the duke’s sister and niece and buried in the monastery.

The identification of the remains was based on a contemporary osteological analysis, but they were subsequently lost and only rediscovered in 2018. A paper published in the journal Forensic Science International: Genetics has now confirmed that identification and shed more light on precisely how the duke died. (A preprint is available on bioRxiv.]

An interdisciplinary team of researchers performed various kinds of bioarchaeological analysis on the remains. including genetic testing, proteomics, 3D modeling, and radiocarbon dating. The resulting data definitively proves that the skeleton is indeed that of Duke Bela of Masco.

The authors were also able to reconstruct the manner of the duke’s death, concluding that this was a coordinated attack by three people. One attacked from the front while the other two attacked from the left and right sides, and the duke was facing his assassins and tried to defend himself. The weapons used were most likely a saber and a long sword, and the assassins kept raining down blows even after the duke had fallen to the ground. The authors concluded that while the attack was clearly planned, it was also personal and fueled by rage or hate.

DOI: Forensic Science International: Genetics, 2025. 10.1016/j.fsigen.2025.103381  (About DOIs).

Why woodpeckers grunt when they peck

A male Pileated woodpecker foraging on a t

Woodpeckers energetically drum away at tree trunks all day long with their beaks and yet somehow never seem to get concussions, despite the fact that such drumming can produce deceleration forces as high as 1,200 g’s. (Humans suffer concussions with a sudden deceleration of just 100 g’s.) While popular myth holds that woodpecker heads are structured in such a way to absorb the shock, and there has been some science to back that up, more recent research found that their heads act more like hammers than shock absorbers. A paper published in the Journal of Experimental Biology sheds further light on the biomechanics of how woodpeckers essentially turn themselves into hammers and reveals that the birds actually grunt as they strike wood.

The authors caught eight wild downy woodpeckers and recorded them drilling and tapping on pieces of hardwood in the lab for three days, while also measuring electrical signals in their heads, necks, abdomens, tails, and leg muscles. Analyzing the footage, they found that woodpeckers use their hip flexors and front neck muscles to propel themselves forward as they peck while tipping their heads back and bracing themselves using muscles at the base of the skull and back of the neck. The birds use abdominal muscles for stability and brace for impact using their tail muscles to anchor their bodies against a tree. As for the grunting, the authors noted that it’s a type of breathing pattern used by tennis players (and martial artists) to boost the power of a strike.

DOI: Journal of Experimental Biology, 2025. 10.1242/jeb.251167  (About DOIs).

Raisins turn water into wine

wine glass half filled with raisins

Credit: Kyoto University

Fermentation has been around in some form for millennia, relying on alcohol-producing yeasts like Saccharomyces cerevisiae; cultured S. cerevisiae is still used by winemakers today. It’s long been thought that winemakers in ancient times stored fresh crushed grapes in jars and relied on natural fermentation to work its magic, but recent studies have called this into question by demonstrating that S. cerevisiae colonies usually don’t form on fresh grape skins. But the yeast does like raisins, as Kyoto University researchers recently discovered. They’ve followed up that earlier work with a paper published in Scientific Reports, demonstrating that it’s possible to use raisins to turn water into wine.

The authors harvested fresh grapes and dried them for 28 days. Some were dried using an incubator, some were sun-dried, and a third batch was dried using a combination of the two methods. The researchers then added the resulting raisins to bottles of water—three samples for each type of drying process—sealed the bottles, and stored them at room temperature for two weeks. One incubator-dried sample and two combo samples successfully fermented, but all three of the sun-dried samples did so, and at higher ethanol concentrations. Future research will focus on identifying the underlying molecular mechanisms. And for those interested in trying this at home, the authors warn that it only works with naturally sun-dried raisins, since store-bought varieties have oil coatings that block fermentation.

DOI: Scientific Reports, 2025. 10.1038/s41598-025-23715-3  (About DOIs).

An octopus-inspired pigment

An octopus camouflages itself with the seafloor.

Credit: Charlotte Seid

Octopuses, cuttlefish, and several other cephalopods can rapidly shift the colors in their skin thanks to that skin’s unique complex structure, including layers of chromatophores, iridophores, and leucophores. A color-shifting natural pigment called xanthommatin also plays a key role, but it’s been difficult to study because it’s hard to harvest enough directly from animals, and lab-based methods of making the pigment are labor-intensive and don’t yield much. Scientists at the University of San Diego have developed a new method for making xanthommatin in substantially larger quantities, according to a paper published in Nature Biotechnology.

The issue is that trying to get microbes to make foreign compounds creates a metabolic burden, and the microbes hence resist the process, hindering yields. The USD team figured out how to trick the cells into producing more xanthommatin by genetically engineering them in such a way that making the pigment was essential to a cell’s survival. They achieved yields of between 1 and 3 grams per liter, compared to just five milligrams of pigment per liter using traditional approaches. While this work is proof of principle, the authors foresee such future applications as photoelectronic devices and thermal coatings, dyes, natural sunscreens, color-changing paints, and environmental sensors. It could also be used to make other kinds of chemicals and help industries shift away from older methods that rely on fossil fuel-based materials.

DOI: Nature Biotechnology, 2025. 10.1038/s41587-025-02867-7  (About DOIs).

A body-swap robot

Participant standing on body-swap balance robot

Credit: Sachi Wickramasinghe/UBC Media Relations

Among the most serious risks facing older adults is falling. According to the authors of a paper published in Science Robotics, standing upright requires the brain to coordinate signals from the eyes, inner ears, and feet to counter gravity, and there’s a natural lag in how fast this information travels back and forth between brain and muscles. Aging and certain diseases like diabetic neuropathy and multiple sclerosis can further delay that vital communication; the authors liken it to steering a car with a wheel that responds half a second late. And it’s a challenge to directly study the brain under such conditions.

That’s why researchers at the University of British Columbia built a large “body swap” robotic platform. Subjects stood on force plates attached to a motor-driven backboard to reproduce the physical forces at play when standing upright: gravity, inertia, and “viscosity,” which in this case describes the damping effect of muscles and joints that allow us to lean without falling. The platform is designed to subtly alter those forces and also add a 200-millisecond delay.

The authors tested 20 participants and found that lowering inertia and making the viscosity negative resulted in similar instability to that which resulted from a signal delay. They then brought in ten new subjects to study whether adjusting body mechanics could compensate for information delays. They found that adding inertia and viscosity could at least partially counter the instability that arose from signal delay—essentially giving the body a small mechanical boost to help the brain maintain balance. The eventual goal is to design wearables that offer gentle resistance when an older person starts to lose their balance, and/or help patients with MS, for example, adjust to slower signal feedback.

DOI: Science Robotics, 2025. 10.1126/scirobotics.adv0496  (About DOIs).

X community notes might actually work

cropped image of phone screen showing an X post with a community note underneath

Credit: Huaxia Rui

Earlier this year, Elon Musk claimed that X’s community notes feature needed tweaking because it was being gamed by “government & legacy media” to contradict Trump—despite vigorously defending the robustness of the feature against such manipulation in the past. A growing body of research seems to back Musk’s earlier stance.

For instance, last year Bloomberg pointed to several studies suggesting that crowdsourcing worked just as well as using professional fact-checkers when assessing the accuracy of news stories. The latest evidence that crowd-sourcing fact checks can be effective at curbing misinformation comes from a paper published in the journal Information Systems Research, which found that X posts with public corrections were 32 percent more likely to be deleted by authors.

Co-author Huaxia Rui of the University of Rochester pointed out that community notes must meet a threshold before they will appear publicly on posts, while those that do not remain hidden from public view. Seeing a prime opportunity in the arrangement, Rui et al. analyzed 264,600 X posts that had received at least one community note and compared those just above and just below that threshold. The posts were collected from two different periods: June through August 2024, right before the US presidential election (when misinformation typically surges), and the post-election period of January and February 2025.

The fact that roughly one-third of authors responded to public community notes by deleting the post suggests that the built-in dynamics of social media (e.g., status, visibility, peer feedback) might actually help improve the spread of misinformation as intended. The authors concluded that crowd-checking “strikes a balance between First Amendment rights and the urgent need to curb misinformation.” Letting AI write the community notes, however, is probably still a bad idea.

DOI: Information Systems Research, 2025. 10.1287/isre.2024.1609  (About DOIs).

Photo of Jennifer Ouellette

Jennifer is a senior writer at Ars Technica with a particular focus on where science meets culture, covering everything from physics and related interdisciplinary topics to her favorite films and TV series. Jennifer lives in Baltimore with her spouse, physicist Sean M. Carroll, and their two cats, Ariel and Caliban.

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Achieving lasting remission for HIV


Promising trials using engineered antibodies suggest that “functional cures” may be in reach.

A digital illustration of an HIV-infected T cell. Once infected, the immune cell is hijacked by the virus to produce and release many new viral particles before dying. As more T-cells are destroyed, the immune system is progressively weakened. Credit: Kateryna Kon/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

Around the world, some 40 million people are living with HIV. And though progress in treatment means the infection isn’t the death sentence it once was, researchers have never been able to bring about a cure. Instead, HIV-positive people must take a cocktail of antiretroviral drugs for the rest of their lives.

But in 2025, researchers reported a breakthrough that suggests that a “functional” cure for HIV—a way to keep HIV under control long-term without constant treatment—may indeed be possible. In two independent trials using infusions of engineered antibodies, some participants remained healthy without taking antiretrovirals, long after the interventions ended.

In one of the trials—the FRESH trial, led by virologist Thumbi Ndung’u of the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa—four of 20 participants maintained undetectable levels of HIV for a median of 1.5 years without taking antiretrovirals. In the other, the RIO trial set in the United Kingdom and Denmark and led by Sarah Fidler, a clinical doctor and HIV research expert at Imperial College London, six of 34 HIV-positive participants have maintained viral control for at least two years.

These landmark proof-of-concept trials show that the immune system can be harnessed to fight HIV. Researchers are now looking to conduct larger, more representative trials to see whether antibodies can be optimized to work for more people.

“I do think that this kind of treatment has the opportunity to really shift the dial,” Fidler says, “because they are long-acting drugs”—with effects that can persist even after they’re no longer in the body. “So far, we haven’t seen anything that works like that.”

People with HIV can live long, healthy lives if they take antiretrovirals. But their lifespans are still generally shorter than those of people without the virus. And for many, daily pills or even the newer, bimonthly injections present significant financial, practical, and social challenges, including stigma. “Probably for the last about 15 or 20 years, there’s been this real push to go, ‘How can we do better?’” says Fidler.

The dream, she says, is “what people call curing HIV, or a remission in HIV.” But that has presented a huge challenge because HIV is a master of disguise. The virus evolves so quickly after infection that the body can’t produce new antibodies quickly enough to recognize and neutralize it.

And some HIV hides out in cells in an inactive state, invisible to the immune system. These evasion tactics have outwitted a long succession of cure attempts. Aside from a handful of exceptional stem-cell transplants, interventions have consistently fallen short of a complete cure—one that fully clears HIV from the body.

A functional cure would be the next best thing. And that’s where a rare phenomenon offers hope: Some individuals with long-term HIV do eventually produce antibodies that can neutralize the virus, though too late to fully shake it. These potent antibodies target critical, rarely changing parts of HIV proteins in the outer viral membrane; these proteins are used by the virus to infect cells. The antibodies, able to recognize a broad range of virus strains, are termed broadly neutralizing.

Scientists are now racing to find the most potent broadly neutralizing antibodies and engineer them into a functional cure. FRESH and RIO are arguably the most promising attempts yet.

In the FRESH trial, scientists chose two antibodies that, combined, were likely to be effective against HIV strains known as HIV-1 clade C, which is dominant in sub-Saharan Africa. The trial enrolled young women from a high-prevalence community as part of a broader social empowerment program. The program had started the women on HIV treatment within three days of their infection several years earlier.

The RIO trial, meanwhile, chose two well-studied antibodies shown to be broadly effective. Its participants were predominantly white men around age 40 who also had gone on antiretroviral drugs soon after infection. Most had HIV-1 clade B, which is more prevalent in Europe.

By pairing antibodies, the researchers aimed to decrease the likelihood that HIV would develop resistance—a common challenge in antibody treatments—since the virus would need multiple mutations to evade both.

Participants in both trials were given an injection of the antibodies, which were modified to last around six months in the body. Then their treatment with antiviral medications was paused. The hope was that the antibodies would work with the immune system to kill active HIV particles, keeping the virus in check. If the effect didn’t last, HIV levels would rise after the antibodies had been broken down, and the participants would resume antiretroviral treatment.

Excitingly, however, findings in both trials suggested that, in some people, the interventions prompted an ongoing, independent immune response, which researchers likened to the effect of a vaccine.

In the RIO trial, 22 of the 34 people receiving broadly neutralizing antibodies had not experienced a viral rebound by 20 weeks. At this point, they were given another antibody shot. Beyond 96 weeks—long after the antibodies had disappeared — six still had viral levels low enough to remain off antiviral medications.

An additional 34 participants included in the study as controls received only a saline infusion and mostly had to resume treatment in four to six weeks; all but three were back on treatment within 20 weeks.

A similar pattern was observed in FRESH (although, because it was mostly a safety study, this trial did not include control participants). Six of the 20 participants retained viral suppression for 48 weeks after the antibody infusion, and of those, four remained off treatment for more than a year. Two and a half years after the intervention, one remains off antiretroviral medication. Two others also maintained viral control but eventually chose to go back on treatment for personal and logistical reasons.

It’s unknown when the virus might rebound, so the researchers are cautious about calling participants in remission functionally cured. However, the antibodies clearly seem to coax the immune system to fight the virus. Attached to infected cells, they signal to immune cells to come in and kill.

And importantly, researchers believe that this immune response to the antibodies may also stimulate immune cells called CD8+ T cells, which then hunt down HIV-infected cells. This could create an “immune memory” that helps the body control HIV even after the antibodies are gone.

The response resembles the immune control seen in a tiny group (fewer than 1 percent) of individuals with HIV, known as elite controllers. These individuals suppress HIV without the help of antiretrovirals, confining it mostly to small reservoirs. That the trials helped some participants do something similar is exciting, says Joel Blankson, an infectious diseases expert at Johns Hopkins Medicine, who coauthored an article about natural HIV controllers in the 2024 Annual Review of Immunology. “It might teach us how to be able to do this much more effectively, and we might be able to get a higher percentage of people in remission.”

One thing scientists do know is that the likelihood of achieving sustained control is higher if people start antiretroviral treatment soon after infection, when their immune systems are still intact and their viral reservoirs are small.

But post-treatment control can occur even in people who started taking antiretrovirals a long time after they were initially infected: a group known as chronically infected patients. “It just happens less often,” Blankson says. “So it’s possible the strategies that are involved in these studies will also apply to patients who are chronically infected.”

A particularly promising finding of the RIO trial was that the antibodies also affected dormant HIV hiding out in some cells. These reservoirs are how the virus rebounds when people stop treatment, and antibodies aren’t thought to touch them. Researchers speculate that the T cells boosted by the antibodies can recognize and kill latently infected cells that display even trace amounts of HIV on their surface.

The FRESH intervention, meanwhile, targeted the stubborn HIV reservoirs more directly through incorporating another drug, called vesatolimod. It’s designed to stimulate immune cells to respond to the HIV threat, and hopefully to “shock” dormant HIV particles out of hiding. Once that happens, the immune system, with the help of the antibodies, can recognize and kill them.

The results of FRESH are exciting, Ndung’u says, “because it might indicate that this regimen worked, to an extent. Because this was a small study, it’s difficult to, obviously, make very hard conclusions.” His team is still investigating the data.

Once he secures funding, Ndung’u aims to run a larger South Africa-based trial including chronically infected individuals. Fidler’s team, meanwhile, is recruiting for a third arm of RIO to try to determine whether pausing antiretroviral treatment for longer before administering the antibodies prompts a stronger immune response.

A related UK-based trial, called AbVax, will add a T-cell-stimulating drug to the mix to see whether it enhances the long-lasting, vaccine-like effect of the antibodies. “It could be that combining different approaches enhances different bits of the immune system, and that’s the way forward,” says Fidler, who is a co-principal investigator on that study.

For now, Fidler and Ndung’u will continue to track the virally suppressed participants — who, for the first time since they received their HIV diagnoses, are living free from the demands of daily treatment.

This story originally appeared at Knowable Magazine

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Knowable Magazine explores the real-world significance of scholarly work through a journalistic lens.

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reintroduced-carnivores’-impacts-on-ecosystems-are-still-coming-into-focus

Reintroduced carnivores’ impacts on ecosystems are still coming into focus

He said he was surprised by how few studies show evidence of wolves, bears, and cougars having an effect on elk, moose, and deer populations. Instead, the biggest driver of changing elk population numbers across the West is humanity.

“In most mainland systems, it’s only when you combine wolves with grizzly bears and you take away human hunting as a substantial component that you see them suppressing prey numbers,” Wilmers said. “Outside of that, they’re mostly background noise against how humans are managing their prey populations.”

In some studies, ungulate populations actually increased slightly in the presence of wolves and grizzlies, Wilmers said, likely because human wildlife managers overestimated the effects of predators as they reduced hunting quotas.

“This is a much-needed review, as it is well executed, and highlights areas where more research is needed,” said Rae Wynn-Grant, a wildlife ecologist and cohost of the television show Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom Protecting the Wild, in an email to Inside Climate News. Wynn-Grant was not involved in the paper, and her work was not part of its survey.

In her view, the paper showed that an increase in predators on the landscape doesn’t automatically balance plant communities. “Our world would be much simpler if it did,” she said, “but the evidence suggests that so many variables factor into if and how ecosystems respond to increases in carnivore population in North America.”

Yellowstone, with its expansive valleys, relatively easy access, and status as an iconic, protected landscape, has become a hotspot for scientists trying to answer an existential question: Is it possible for an ecosystem that’s lost keystone large carnivores to be restored to a pre-extinction state upon their reintroduction?

Wilmers doesn’t think scientists have answered that question yet, except to show that it can take decades to untangle the web of factors driving ecological shifts in a place like Yellowstone. Any changes that do occur when a predator is driven to extinction may be impossible to reverse quickly, he said.

Yellowstone’s alternative stable state was a point echoed by researchers in both camps of the trophic cascade debate, and it is one Wilmers believes is vital to understand when evaluating the tradeoffs of large-carnivore reintroduction.

“You’d be better off avoiding the loss of beavers and wolves in the first place than you would be accepting that loss and trying to restore them later,” he said.

This story originally appeared on Inside Climate News

Reintroduced carnivores’ impacts on ecosystems are still coming into focus Read More »

ula-aimed-to-launch-up-to-10-vulcan-rockets-this-year—it-will-fly-just-once

ULA aimed to launch up to 10 Vulcan rockets this year—it will fly just once

Engineers traced the problem to a manufacturing defect in an insulator on the solid rocket motor, and telemetry data from all four boosters on the following flight in August exhibited “spot-on” performance, according to Bruno. But officials decided to recover the spent expendable motor casings from the Atlantic Ocean for inspections to confirm there were no other surprises or close calls.

The hangup delaying the next Vulcan launches isn’t in rocket production. ULA has hardware for multiple Vulcan rockets in storage at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.

Instead, one key reason for Vulcan’s past delays has been the rocket’s performance, particularly its solid rocket boosters. It isn’t clear whether the latest delays are related to the readiness of the Space Force’s GSSAP satellites (the next GPS satellite to fly on Vulcan has been available for launch since 2022), the inspections of Vulcan’s solid rocket motors, or something else.

Vulcan booster cores in storage at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. Credit: United Launch Alliance

A Space Systems Command spokesperson told Ars that “appropriate actions are being executed to ensure a successful USSF-87 mission … The teams analyze all hardware as well as available data from previous missions to evaluate space flight worthiness of future missions.”

The spokesperson did not provide a specific answer to a question from Ars about inspections on the solid rocket motors from the most recent Vulcan flight.

ULA’s outfitting of a new rocket assembly hangar and a second mobile launch platform for the Vulcan rocket at Cape Canaveral has also seen delays. With so many launches in its backlog, ULA needs capacity to stack and prepare at least two rockets in different buildings at the same time. Eventually, the company’s goal is to launch at an average clip of twice per month.

On Monday, ground crews at Cape Canaveral moved the second Vulcan launch platform to the company’s launch pad for fit checks and “initial technical testing.” This is a good sign that the company is moving closer to ramping up the Vulcan launch cadence, but it’s now clear it won’t happen this year.

Vulcan’s slow launch rate since its first flight in January 2024 is not unusual for new rockets. It took 28 months for SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and ULA’s Atlas V to reach their fourth flight, a timeline that the Vulcan vehicle will reach in May 2026.

The Delta IV rocket from ULA flew its fourth mission 25 months after debuting in 2002. Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket reached its fourth flight in 16 months, but it shares more in common with its predecessor than the others. SpaceX’s Starship also had a faster ramp-up, with its fourth test flight coming less than 14 months after the first.

ULA aimed to launch up to 10 Vulcan rockets this year—it will fly just once Read More »

solar’s-growth-in-us-almost-enough-to-offset-rising-energy-use

Solar’s growth in US almost enough to offset rising energy use

If you add in nuclear, then the US has reached a grid that is 40 percent emissions-free over the first nine months of 2025. That’s up only 1 percent compared to the same period the year prior. And because coal emits more carbon than natural gas, it’s likely the US will see a net increase in electricity-related emissions this year.

If you would like to have a reason to feel somewhat more optimistic, however, the EIA used the new data to release an analysis of the state of the grid in California, where the production from utility-scale solar has nearly doubled over the last five years, thanks in part to another 17 percent increase so far in 2024.

Through 2023, it was tough to discern any impact of that solar production on the rest of the grid, in part due to increased demand. But since then, natural gas use has dropped considerably (it’s down by 17 percent so far in 2025), placing it at risk of being displaced by solar as the largest source of electricity in California as early as next year. This displacement is happening even as California’s total consumption jumped by 8 percent so far in 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Image of three graphs representing spring electrical use over the last five years. All show a large green bump representing solar generation peaking at mid-day. A fblue line representing battery use is flat on the left, develops wiggles in the middle, then develops into a curve where energy is drawn in during the day and released in the evening.

Massive solar growth plus batteries means less natural gas on California’s grid. Credit: US EIA

The massive growth in solar has also led to overproduction of power in the spring and autumn, when heating/cooling demands are lowest. That, in turn, has led to a surge in battery construction to absorb the cheap power and sell it back after the Sun sets. The impact of batteries was nearly impossible to discern as recently as 2023, but data from May and June of 2025 shows batteries pulling in lots of power at mid-day, and using it in the early evening to completely offset what would otherwise be an enormous surge in the use of natural gas.

Not every state has the sorts of solar resources available to California. But the economics of solar power suggest that other states are likely to experience this sort of growth in the coming years. And, while the Trump administration has been openly hostile to solar power from the moment it took office, so far there is no sign of that hostility at the grid level.

Solar’s growth in US almost enough to offset rising energy use Read More »