Science

it-could-well-be-a-blockbuster-hurricane-season,-and-that’s-not-a-good-thing

It could well be a blockbuster hurricane season, and that’s not a good thing

It only takes one —

Although not quite literally, the Atlantic Ocean is on fire right now.

As of late March, much of the Atlantic Ocean was seeing temperatures far above normal.

Enlarge / As of late March, much of the Atlantic Ocean was seeing temperatures far above normal.

Weathermodels.com

The Atlantic hurricane season does not begin for another eight weeks, but we are deep in the heart of hurricane season prediction season.

On Thursday, the most influential of these forecasts was issued by Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane scientist at Colorado State University. To put a fine point on it, Klotzbach and his team foresee an exceptionally busy season in the Atlantic basin, which encompasses the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

“We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active,” Klotzbach wrote in his forecast discussion.

The Colorado State forecast calls for 23 named storms, more than 50 percent higher than a typical season of 14.4 named storms; and 11 hurricanes, above a normal total of seven. Additionally, the forecast predicts that the season’s accumulated cyclone energy—a summation of the duration and intensity of storms across the whole basin—will be 70 percent greater than normal. If the forecast is accurate, the year 2024 would rank among the top 10 most active Atlantic hurricane seasons in a century and a half of records.

This forecast is not out of line with other seasonal predictions. Dozens of organizations, from private groups to individual forecasters to media properties, issue these kinds of seasonal predictions. But Colorado State’s is the longest-running and most influential, and its release underscores what is indeed expected to be a very busy season for tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

What’s driving this?

Klotzbach cites two major factors driving the busy year. The primary one is sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic, where tropical systems develop. These seas are seeing record warm temperatures for April—indeed, in many places, the Atlantic is already as warm as it typically would be in June. Undoubtedly climate change is a central factor behind this warming.

Warm seas are one precursor to tropical systems, but they are just one condition necessary for a low-pressure system to organize into a tropical depression.

Another is low wind shear, as cross-directional winds can literally shear a storm apart. While it is not possible to forecast wind shear months ahead of a season, the presence of El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific Ocean is a pretty useful indicator.

In this case, there’s more bad news. The present (weak) El Niño in the Pacific is likely to transition into a La Niña by this summer, especially in August or September. That matters because these are typically the most frenetic months for activity, and with a La Niña in place, wind shear is likely to be lower overall in the Atlantic basin.

This is the first of several forecasts Klotzbach will issue for the upcoming season, and although predictions in April typically have lower skill, it is difficult to ignore the signals out there. “While the skill of this prediction is low, our confidence is higher than normal this year for an early April forecast given how hurricane-favorable the large-scale conditions appear to be,” he wrote.

What does this mean?

Most coastal areas along the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf will not be affected by a hurricane in any given year. I live and work in Houston, which is the largest city in the Atlantic basin that regularly sees significant hurricane threats. But even here, in the subtropics, we only see large, direct impacts from a hurricane or tropical storm about every 10 years.

What a busy season does is load the dice. More activity means a greater likelihood that one of those storms will venture closer to where one lives. So the threat of a hurricane is there every year; it’s just that the threat is greater in some years.

There is an old, oft-repeated adage in hurricane forecasting circles: “It only takes one.” This means that even during a slow season if there’s just one hurricane and it hits you, it was a busy hurricane season for you. We experienced this in Houston back in 1983 when the very first named storm of the year, a hurricane named Alicia, made landfall near the city on August 17. There ended up being just four named storms in 1984, but unfortunately for Houston, one of them struck here.

A busy forecast like this doesn’t mean a whole lot for coastal residents. We really need to be prepared every year, knowing our vulnerabilities to a hurricane, knowing when we need to evacuate, where we would go, and what we would need to take.

However, it does have implications for first responders and government organizations tasked with dealing with hurricane aftermath, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Thus, it seems prudent that the recently passed federal budget for fiscal year 2024 tucked $20.3 billion into the agency’s Disaster Relief Fund.

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mars-may-not-have-had-liquid-water-long-enough-for-life-to-form

Mars may not have had liquid water long enough for life to form

Subliminal —

Lab experiments suggest gullies on Mars might form when carbon dioxide heats up.

Image of a grey-colored slope with channels cut into it.

Mars has a history of liquid water on its surface, including lakes like the one that used to occupy Jezero Crater, which have long since dried up. Ancient water that carried debris—and melted water ice that presently does the same—were also thought to be the only thing driving the formation of gullies spread throughout the Martian landscape. That view may now change thanks to new results that suggest dry ice can also shape the landscape.

It’s sublime

Previously, scientists were convinced that only liquid water shaped gullies on Mars because that’s what happens on Earth. What was not taken into account was sublimation, or the direct transition of a substance from a solid to a gaseous state. Sublimation is how CO2 ice disappears (sometimes water ice experiences this, too).

Frozen carbon dioxide is everywhere on Mars, including in its gullies. When CO2 ice sublimates on one of these gullies, the resulting gas can push debris further down the slope and continue to shape it.

Led by planetary researcher Lonneke Roelofs of Utrecht University in the Netherlands, a team of scientists has found that the sublimation of CO2 ice could have shaped Martian gullies, which might mean the most recent occurrence of liquid water on Mars may have been further back in time than previously thought. That could also mean the window during which life could have emerged and thrived on Mars was possibly smaller.

“Sublimation of CO2 ice, under Martian atmospheric conditions, can fluidize sediment and creates morphologies similar to those observed on Mars,” Roelofs and her colleagues said in a study recently published in Communications Earth & Environment.

Into thin air

Earth and Martian gullies have basically the same morphology. The difference is that we’re certain that liquid water is behind their formation and continuous shaping and re-shaping on Earth. Such activity includes new channels being carved out and more debris being taken to the bottom.

While ancient Mars may have had enough stable liquid water to pull this off, there is not enough on the present surface of Mars to sustain that kind of activity. This is where sublimation comes in. CO2 ice has been observed on the surface of Mars at the same time that material starts flowing.

After examining observations like these, the researchers hypothesized these flows are pushed downward by gas as the frozen carbon dioxide sublimates. Because of the low pressure on Mars, sublimation creates a relatively greater gas flux than it would on Earth—enough power to make fluid motion of material possible.

There are two ways sublimation can be triggered to get these flows moving. When part of a more exposed area of a gully collapses, especially on a steep slope, sediment and other debris that have been warmed by the Sun can fall on CO2 ice in a shadier and cooler area. Heat from the falling material could supply enough energy for the frost to sublimate. Another possibility is that CO2 ice and sediment can break from the gully and fall onto warmer material, which will also trigger sublimation.

Mars in a lab

There is just one problem with these ideas: since humans have not landed on Mars (yet), there are no in situ observations of these phenomena, only images and data beamed back from spacecraft. So, everything is hypothetical. The research team would have to model Martian gullies to watch the action in real time.

To re-create a part of the red planet’s landscape in a lab, Roelofs built a flume in a special environmental chamber that simulated the atmospheric pressure of Mars. It was steep enough for material to move downward and cold enough for CO2 ice to remain stable. But the team also added warmer adjacent slopes to provide heat for sublimation, which would drive movement of debris. They experimented with both scenarios that might happen on Mars: heat coming from beneath the CO2 ice and warm material being poured on top of it. Both produced the kinds of flows that had been hypothesized.

For further evidence that flows driven by sublimation would happen under certain conditions, two further experiments were conducted, one under Earth-like pressures and one without CO2 ice. No flows were produced by either.

“For the first time, these experiments provide direct evidence that CO2 sublimation can fluidize, and sustain, granular flows under Martian atmospheric conditions,” the researchers said in the study.

Because this experiment showed that gullies and systems like them can be shaped by sublimation and not just liquid water, it raises questions about how long Mars had a sufficient supply of liquid water on the surface for any organisms (if they existed at all) to survive. Its period of habitability might have been shorter than it was once thought to be. Does this mean nothing ever lived on Mars? Not necessarily, but Roelofs’ findings could influence how we see planetary habitability in the future.

Communications Earth & Environment, 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01298-7

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101-studies-flagged-as-bogus-covid-cure-pusher-sees-career-unravel

101 studies flagged as bogus COVID cure pusher sees career unravel

Career-killer —

It’s a past-due reckoning for French microbiologist Didier Raoult, critics say.

Microbiologist Didier Raoult addresses a press conference on COVID-19 at the IHU medical institute in Marseille on April 20, 2022.

Enlarge / Microbiologist Didier Raoult addresses a press conference on COVID-19 at the IHU medical institute in Marseille on April 20, 2022.

A scientific journal published by Elsevier has reportedly posted a stunning 101 expressions of concern on studies connected to Didier Raoult, a disgraced French microbiologist who gained international prominence amid the pandemic by promoting, with little evidence, that the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine could treat COVID-19—a claim that has now been firmly debunked.

According to Retraction Watch, the journal New Microbes and New Infections posted 101 expressions of concern on Raoult’s works recently, including a 2023 study that drew sharp criticism. The study involved giving hydroxychloroquine to tens of thousands of COVID-19 patients after data indicated that it wasn’t effective and the French government rescinded permission for its use against COVID-19. An op-ed in the major French newspaper Le Monde described the study as “the largest ‘wild’ therapeutic trial known to date.”

The expressions of concern also come as Raoult saw his tenth study retracted, Retraction Watch noted.

While Raoult’s unfounded claims about hydroxychloroquine drew initial attention to his COVID-19-related work—with critics quickly noting flaws and weaknesses in his studies—his high-profile claims led critics and sleuths to dive deeper into his extensive publication record. There, they claim they found evidence of long-standing and egregious ethics violations, which were recently laid out in an investigative report by Science Magazine.

Essentially, critics claim Raoult and the institute that he led until 2021, the Hospital Institute of Marseille Mediterranean Infection (IHU), conducted hundreds of studies on humans without appropriate ethical approval or oversight or adequate consent from all participants, the Science investigation found. The IHU work spanned a wide variety of research topics, which involved collecting a variety of biological samples from patients, including vaginal swabs, feces, blood, urine, and breast milk.

However, critics noted 248 IHU studies that reused the same ethical approval code, “09-022,” despite being very different studies that included different kinds of sampling. The critics claim that the studies required separate ethical approvals and additional oversight. They also found that at least 17 studies relied on vulnerable populations, including refugees and people living in homeless shelters, raising serious questions about consent. Some of the studies were also conducted in African countries, where evidence of local ethical approval was either absent or incomplete.

Raoult told the magazine that his research groups had the appropriate ethical approval and said that his critics, whom he described as stalkers and cyber harassers, did not understand how French biomedical laws work.

In Elsevier’s expressions of concern and a linked “Publisher’s Note” from November, the publisher said that the concern was over “the articles’ adherence to Elsevier’s publishing ethics policies and the appropriate conduct of research involving human participants.” Elsevier is still investigating the matter but indicated that the expressions of concern are added “if it is deemed that there is a particular need to alert readers to serious concerns while [the] investigation is ongoing.”

Raoult has had nearly 50 studies likewise flagged over ethical concerns in PLOS journals, Retraction Watch noted. The latest of his studies to be retracted was in the journal Scientific Reports, with the editors there also stating it was due to a lack of ethical oversight. “The paper cites approval from an institutional ethics committee in France, but samples used in this study were also sourced from Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Niger,” the retraction notice says. “The Authors were not able to provide documentation of approval from ethics committees in these countries or of compliance with local regulations regarding the use of such samples in research.”

Raoult is currently under criminal investigation in France.

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pentagon-calls-for-tighter-integration-between-military-and-commercial-space

Pentagon calls for tighter integration between military and commercial space

Aerial view of the Pentagon on March 31.

Enlarge / Aerial view of the Pentagon on March 31.

Photo by Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

A strategy document released by the Pentagon this week lays out where the US military can most effectively rely on the commercial space industry and what missions should remain in government hands.

“This marks a new effort to harness the remarkable innovation of the commercial space sector to enhance our resilience and strengthen integrated deterrence as a department,” said John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy.

The Space Force already buys a lot from the commercial space industry. The military doesn’t build or own satellite launch vehicles—those come from commercial companies. While the Space Force operates government-owned reconnaissance and surveillance satellites, it also buys supplementary data and imagery from the commercial industry.

“To protect our men and women in uniform and to ensure the space services they rely on will be available when needed, the department has a responsibility to leverage all tools available, and those tools include commercial solutions,” Plumb said Tuesday. “From launch to space domain awareness to satellite communications and more, the commercial sector’s ability to innovate, to scale production and to rapidly refresh their technology is opening the door to all kinds of possibilities.”

The Pentagon defines the commercial space sector as companies that develop capabilities for sale on the commercial market, where the military is one of many customers. This is separate from the Pentagon’s procurement of government-owned airplanes and satellites from the defense industry.

Ripe for exploitation

Build or buy is an age-old question facing everyone from homeowners to billion-dollar enterprises. When it comes to space, the Pentagon is buying more than ever. The military’s new strategy document outlines 13 mission areas for national security space, and while the commercial space industry is rapidly growing, the Pentagon predominately buys commercial services in only one of those mission areas.

“Out of those 13, the only that’s clearly primarily commercial now is SAML.. which is Space Access, Mobility and Logistics, and space access is launch,” Plumb said. “So SpaceX, Firefly, Rocket Lab, all these different companies doing commercial launch, that’s where the commercial sector clearly can provide services.”

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off February 14 with satellites for the US military's Missile Defense Agency. Another Falcon 9 awaits launch in the foreground.

Enlarge / A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off February 14 with satellites for the US military’s Missile Defense Agency. Another Falcon 9 awaits launch in the foreground.

Currently, the military classifies six mission areas as a hybrid of government and commercial capabilities:

  • Cyberspace operations
  • Satellite communications
  • Spacecraft operations,
  • Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance
  • Space domain awareness (tracking of space objects)
  • Environmental monitoring.

In the remaining six mission areas, “a preponderance of functions must be performed by the government, while a select few could be performed by the commercial sector,” officials wrote in the commercial space strategy. In these areas, there is not yet a viable commercial market outside of the government, or commercial capabilities don’t match the government’s needs. These areas include:

  • Command and control (including nuclear command, control, and communications)
  • Electromagnetic warfare
  • Nuclear detonation detection
  • Missile warning
  • Position, navigation, and timing (GPS).

A major tenet of the commercial space strategy is for the military to support the development of new commercial space capabilities. This could involve supporting technology demonstrations and funding scientific research. Over time, new technology and new markets could bring more mission areas into the hybrid or commercial lists.

“I think what this strategy hopes to do is say, yes, continue working on bringing commercial entities in,” Plumb said. “This is actually a thing we want you to do, not just a thing you should be experimenting with.”

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bird-flu-flare:-cattle-in-5-states-now-positive-as-texas-egg-farm-shuts-down

Bird flu flare: Cattle in 5 states now positive as Texas egg farm shuts down

flare-up —

The risk to the general public remains low, federal officials say.

Chicken eggs are disposed of at a quarantined farm with bird flu in Israel's northern village of Margaliot on January 3, 2022.

Enlarge / Chicken eggs are disposed of at a quarantined farm with bird flu in Israel’s northern village of Margaliot on January 3, 2022.

The flare-up of highly pathogenic bird flu continues to widen in US livestock after federal officials confirmed last week that the virus has spread to US cows for the first time. The virus has now been detected in dairy cows in at least five states, a single person in Texas exposed to infected cows, and an egg farm in Texas, all spurring yet more intense monitoring and biosecurity vigilance as the situation continues to evolve.

As of Tuesday, seven dairy herds in Texas, two in Kansas, and one each in Idaho, Michigan, and New Mexico had tested positive for the virus. The affected dairy herd in Michigan had recently received cows from one of the infected herds in Texas. It remains unclear if there is cow-to-cow transmission of the flu virus.

The virus—a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza or HPAI—has been devastating wild birds worldwide for the past several years. Throughout the devastating outbreak, the flu virus has spilled over to various species, including big cats in zoos, river otters, bears, dolphins, seals, squirrels, and foxes. While cows were an unexpected addition to the list, federal officials noted last week that affected dairy farms had found dead wild birds on their farms, suggesting that wild birds introduced the virus to the cows, not an intermediate host.

On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Protection reported that a person in Texas who had contact with infected dairy cows had tested positive for the HPAI. The person’s only symptom was eye redness. The CDC said the person was treated with an antiviral for flu and was recovering. It is the second case of HPAI found in a person in the US. The first case was in a person in Colorado who was directly exposed to poultry infected with the virus. In that case, the person’s only symptom was fatigue over a few days. The person recovered. The CDC considers the risk of HPAI to the general public to be low.

Low risk

Meanwhile, the virus continues to spread to less-surprising animals: chickens. On Tuesday, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc., the country’s largest producer of fresh eggs, reported that HPAI was detected in one of its facilities in Texas. The facility is located in Parmer County, which sits at the border of Texas and New Mexico. It’s unclear if the egg facility is close to any of the affected dairy herds. Cal-Maine, following the US Department of Agriculture biosecurity protocols, immediately shut down the facility. Approximately 1.6 million hens and 337,000 pullets—young hens—were culled. Cal-Maine said the hens represented about 3.6 percent of the company’s total flock.

Since the outbreak began in wild birds, the virus has led to the deaths of over 82 million commercial and backyard birds in the US, with 48 states affected and over 1,000 outbreaks reported. The infections have spurred increases in egg and poultry prices.

It’s unclear if the virus will have the same effect on milk or beef, but so far, it appears that it will not. In the infected herds, the virus appears to only be affecting a small percentage of animals, particularly older animals, and they generally recover. As the USDA puts it there’s “little to no associated mortality reported.” Milk from sick cows is always diverted from the milk supply, but even if milk contaminated with HPAI were to make it into the supply, the virus would be destroyed in the pasteurization process.

Still, the continued, widespread outbreak and spillovers of HPAI in various species highlight the ever-present risk that influenza viruses could mix together, combining genetic fragments of different strains (genetic reassortment) to create a new strain that could spark outbreaks or even a pandemic in humans. In the current outbreak among dairy cattle, federal researchers were quick to check the genetic sequence of the HPAI, finding that, so far, the strain lacks mutations in key genetic regions that would signal the virus has become more infectious to humans. For now, the USDA and the CDC report that the risk to the public is low.

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the-best-robot-to-search-for-life-could-look-like-a-snake

The best robot to search for life could look like a snake

Image of two humans sitting behind a control console dressed in heavy clothing, while a long tube sits on the ice in front of them.

Enlarge / Trying out the robot on a glacier.

Icy ocean worlds like Europa or Enceladus are some of the most promising locations for finding extra-terrestrial life in the Solar System because they host liquid water. But to determine if there is something lurking in their alien oceans, we need to get past ice cover that can be dozens of kilometers thick. Any robots we send through the ice would have to do most of the job on their own because communication with these moons takes as much as 155 minutes.

Researchers working on NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s technology development project called Exobiology Extant Life Surveyor (EELS) might have a solution to both those problems. It involves using an AI-guided space snake robot. And they actually built one.

Geysers on Enceladus

The most popular idea to get through the ice sheet on Enceladus or Europa so far has been thermal drilling, a technique used for researching glaciers on Earth. It involves a hot drill that simply melts its way through the ice. “Lots of people work on different thermal drilling approaches, but they all have a challenge of sediment accumulation, which impacts the amount of energy needed to make significant progress through the ice sheet,” says Matthew Glinder, the hardware lead of the EELS project.

So, instead of drilling new holes in ice, the EELS team focuses on using ones that are already there. The Cassini mission discovered geyser-like jets shooting water into space from vents in the ice cover near Enceladus’ south pole. “The concept was you’d have a lander to land near a vent and the robot would move on the surface and down into the vent, search the vent, and through the vent go further down into the ocean”, says Matthew Robinson, the EELS project manager.

The problem was that the best Cassini images of the area where that lander would need to touch down have a resolution of roughly 6 meters per pixel, meaning major obstacles to landing could be undetected. To make things worse, those close-up images were monocular, which meant we could not properly figure out the topography. “Look at Mars. First we sent an orbiter. Then we sent a lander. Then we sent a small robot. And then we sent a big robot. This paradigm of exploration allowed us to get very detailed information about the terrain,” says Rohan Thakker, the EELS autonomy lead. “But it takes between seven to 11 years to get to Enceladus. If we followed the same paradigm, it would take a century,” he adds.

All-terrain snakes

To deal with unknown terrain, the EELS team built a robot that could go through almost anything—a versatile, bio-inspired, snake-like design about 4.4 meters long and 35 centimeters in diameter. It weighs about 100 kilograms (on Earth, at least). It’s made of 10 mostly identical segments. “Each of those segments share a combination of shape actuation and screw actuation that rotates the screws fitted on the exterior of the segments to propel the robot through its environment,” explains Glinder. By using those two types of actuators, the robot can move using what the team calls “skin propulsion,” which relies on the rotation of screws, or using one of various shape-based movements that rely on shape actuators. “Sidewinding is one of those gaits where you are just pressing the robot against the environment,” Glinder says.

The basic design also works on surfaces other than ice.

Enlarge / The basic design also works on surfaces other than ice.

The standard sensor suite is fitted on the head and includes a set of stereo cameras providing a 360-degree viewing angle. There are also inertial measuring units (IMUs) that use gyroscopes to estimate the robot’s position, and lidar sensors. But it also has a sense of touch. “We are going to have torque force sensors in each segment. This way we will have direct torque plus direct force sensing at each joint,” explains Robinson. All this is supposed to let the EELS robot safely climb up and down Enceladus’ vents, hold in place in case of eruptions by pressing itself against the walls, and even navigate by touch alone if cameras and lidar don’t work.

But perhaps the most challenging part of building the EELS robot was its brain.

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the-chemistry-of-milk-washing,-aka-the-secret-to-ben-franklin’s-favorite-tipple

The chemistry of milk washing, aka the secret to Ben Franklin’s favorite tipple

Curds and whey —

Bonus: a twist on the espresso martini, with peanut butter-washed vodka, coffee, and milk curd.

Explore the chemistry behind making a cocktail with curdled milk, aka milk washing—like Ben Franklin’s fave, milk punch.

It’s well-known that Benjamin Franklin was a Founding Father who enjoyed a nice tipple or two (or three). One of his favorite alcoholic beverages was milk punch, a heady concoction of brandy, lemon juice, nutmeg, sugar, water, and hot whole milk—the latter nicely curdled thanks to the heat, lemon juice, and alcohol. It employs a technique known as “milk washing,” used to round out and remove harsh, bitter flavors from spirits that have been less than perfectly distilled, as well as preventing drinks from spoiling (a considerable benefit in the 1700s).

Some versions of milk punch also incorporate tea, and in the mixed drink taxonomy, it falls somewhere between a posset and syllabub. The American Chemical Society’s George Zaidan decided to delve a bit deeper into the chemistry behind milk washing in a new Reactions video after tasting the difference between a Tea Time cocktail made with the milk washing method and one made without it. The latter was so astringent, it was “like drinking a cup of tea that’s been brewed for 6,000 years,” per Zaidan. In the process, he ended up stumbling onto a flavorful new twist on the classic espresso martini (although martini purists probably wouldn’t consider either to be a true martini).

There isn’t anything in the scientific literature about milk washing as it specifically pertains to cocktails, so Zaidan broke the process down into three simple experiments, armed with all the necessary ingredients and his trusty centrifuge. First, he combined whole milk with Coke, a highly acidic beverage that curdles the milk. Per Zaidan, this happens because of the casein proteins in milk, which typically have an overall negative charge that keeps them from clumping. Adding the acid (Coke) adds protons to the mix so that it is electrically neutral (usually at a pH of 4.6).

At that point, the caseins clump together to form solid fatty curds surrounded by a watery liquid. That liquid is significantly lighter than the original Coke because the curds absorbed all the molecules that give the beverage its color. “They’re particularly good at pulling tannins, which are those astringent bitter mouth-puckering molecules, out of stuff,” Zaidan said. The liquid remained sweet, since the curds don’t absorb the sugar, but the taste was now more akin to Sprite. The curds didn’t taste much like Coke either.

Benjamin Franklin's recipe for milk punch, included in a 1763 letter to James Bowdoin.

Enlarge / Benjamin Franklin’s recipe for milk punch, included in a 1763 letter to James Bowdoin.

Next, Zaidan conducted an experiment to see whether vodka can absorb the rich fatty flavors of butter and ghee (clarified butter), aka “fat washing,” which should be extendable to other fats like bacon and peanut butter. It took 24 hours to accomplish, but both the butter- and ghee-infused vodkas received a thumbs-up during the taste test. According to Zaidan, this demonstrates that milk washing adds buttery flavor and texture to a cocktail in addition to removing flavor (notably bitter compounds) and color.

But what about the whey, the other type of milk protein? Per Zaidan, this makes for a nice secret ingredient to add to a milk washed cocktail, based on his experiment combining whey with vodka. It doesn’t seem to have much impact on the vodka’s flavor but it adds a pleasant texture and smoother mouth feel as it coats the tongue.

Armed with his three deconstructed components of the milk washing process, Zaidan was ready to create his own twist on a classic cocktail. First, he poured vodka over peanut butter to infuse the fatty flavor into the spirits (fat washing). Then he curdled some milk and added it to espresso to temper the latter’s bitter flavors and combined it with the peanut butter-infused vodka. Finally, he added Kahlua, simple syrup, and a bit of whey for extra body and texture.

Voila! You’ve got a tastier, more complex version (per Zaidan) of an espresso martini. The downside: It’s an extremely time-consuming cocktail to make. Perhaps that’s why Franklin’s original recipe for milk punch was clearly meant to be made in bulk. (The Massachusetts Historical Society’s modern interpretation cuts the portions by three-quarters.)

Listing image by YouTube/American Chemical Society

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Expedition uses small underwater drone to discover 100-year-old shipwreck

The sunken place —

The underwater drone Hydrus can capture georeferenced 4K video and images simultaneously.

3D model of a 100-year-old shipwreck off the western coast of Australia. Credit: Daniel Adams, Curtin University HIVE.

A small underwater drone called Hydrus has located the wreckage of a 100-year-old coal hulk in the deep waters off the coast of western Australia. Based on the data the drone captured, scientists were able to use photogrammetry to virtually “rebuild” the 210-foot ship into a 3D model (above). You can explore an interactive 3D rendering of the wreckage here.

The use of robotic submersibles to locate and explore historic shipwrecks is well established. For instance, researchers relied on remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) to study the wreckage of the HMS Terror, Captain Sir John S. Franklin‘s doomed Arctic expedition to cross the Northwest Passage in 1846. In 2007, a pair of brothers (printers based in Norfolk) discovered the wreck of the Gloucester, which ran aground on a sandbank off the coast of Norfolk in 1682 and sank within the hour. Among the passengers was James Stuart, Duke of York and future King James II of England, who escaped in a small boat just before the ship sank.

In 2022, the Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust and National Geographic announced the discovery of British explorer Sir Ernest Shackleton‘s ship Endurance. In 1915, Shackleton and his crew were stranded for months on the Antarctic ice after the ship was crushed by pack ice and sank into the freezing depths of the Weddell Sea. The wreckage was found nearly 107 years later, 3,008 meters down, roughly four miles (6.4 km) south of the ship’s last recorded position. The wreck was in pristine condition partly because of the lack of wood-eating microbes in those waters. In fact, the lettering “ENDURANCE” was clearly visible in shots of the stern.

And just last year, an ROV was used to verify the discovery of the wreckage of a schooner barge called Ironton, which collided with a Great Lakes freighter called Ohio in Lake Huron’s infamous “Shipwreck Alley” in 1894. The wreck was so well-preserved in the frigid waters of the Great Lakes that its three masts were still standing and its rigging still attached. That discovery could help resolve unanswered questions about the ship’s final hours.

Deployment of one of Advanced Navigation's Micro Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV).

Enlarge / Deployment of one of Advanced Navigation’s Micro Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV).

Advanced Navigation

According to Advanced Navigation, there are some 3 million undiscovered shipwrecks around the world—1,819 recorded wrecks lying off the coast of Western Australia alone. That includes the Rottnest ship graveyard just southwest of Rottnest Island, with a seabed some 50 to 200 meters below sea level (164 to 656 feet). The island is known for the number of ships wrecked near its shore since the 17th century. The Rottnest graveyard is more of a dump site for scuttling obsolete ships, at least 47 of which would be considered historically significant.

However, this kind of deep ocean exploration can be both time-consuming and expensive, particularly at depths of more than 50 meters (164 feet). Hydrus was designed to reduce the cost of this kind of ocean exploration significantly. One person can deploy the drone because of its compact size, so there is no need for large vessels or complicated launch systems. And Hydrus can capture georeferenced 4K video and still images at the same time. Once this latest expedition realized they had found a shipwreck, they were able to deploy a pair of the drones to take a complete survey in just five hours.

Hydrus captured this footage of the 210-foot wreck of a 19th-century coal hulk. Credit: Advanced Navigation

Ross Anderson, curator of the Western Australia Museum, was able to identify the wreck as an iron coal hulk once used in Freemantle Port to service steamships, probably built in the 1860s–1890s and scuttled in the graveyard sometime in the 1920s. The geolocation data provided to scientists at Curtin University HIVE enabled them to use photogrammetry to convert that data into a 3D digital model. “It can’t be overstated how much this structure in data assists with constraining feature matching and reducing the processing time, especially in large datasets,” Andrew Woods, a professor at the university, said in a statement.

The expedition team’s next target using the Hydrus technology is the wreck of the luxury passenger steamship SS Koombana, which disappeared somewhere off Port Hedland en route to Broome during a tropical cyclone in 1912, with 150 on board presumed to have perished. The only wreckage recovered at the time was part of a starboard bow planking, a stateroom door, a panel from the promenade deck, and a few air tanks. There were a couple of reports in the 1980s of “magnetic anomalies” in the seabed off Bedout Island, part of the route the Koombana would have taken. But despite several deep-water expeditions in the early 2010s, to date the actual shipwreck has not been found.

Listing image by Advanced Navigation

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Medicare forced to expand forms to fit 10-digit bills—a penny shy of $100M

more zeros —

Previously, some doctors had to divide bills by 10 and submit 10 claims to get costs covered.

High angle close-up view still life of an opened prescription bottles with pills and medication spilling onto ae background of money, U.S. currency with Lincoln Portrait.

In a disturbing sign of the times, Medicare this week implemented a change to its claims-processing system that adds two extra digits to money amounts, expanding the fields from eight digits to 10. The change now allows for billing and payment totals of up to $99,999,999.99, or a penny shy of $100 million.

In a notice released last month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) explained the change, writing, “With the increase of Part B procedures/treatments exceeding the $999,999.99 limitation, CMS is implementing the expansion of display screens for monetary amount fields related to billing and payment within [the Fiscal Intermediary Shared System (FISS)] to accept and process up to 10 digits ($99,999,999.99).”

The FISS is the processing system used by hospitals and doctors’ offices to process Medicare claims.

Stat news, which first reported the update, noted that it’s not the first time CMS has struggled to make room for ever-increasing drug and treatment prices in its claims processing systems. In 2022, the agency had to give technical advice to doctors submitting claims for chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy, which is used to treat blood cancers. CAR T-cell therapies run around half a million dollars, or eight digits. But in a different claims processing system, called the Multi-Carrier System (MCS), the money amount fields only included seven digits. In that case, rather than expanding the field, the CMS requested that doctors divide the bill by either five or 10, depending on the size, and then bill Medicare five or 10 separate times for a single claim.

CAR T-cell therapies aren’t the only treatments with eye-popping price points these days. Just last month, the drug Lenmeldy, a lifesaving gene therapy for a tragic childhood condition, set the current record for the highest drug price in the world at $4.25 million. Before Lenmeldy arrived, the hemophilia B drug Hemgenix held that record, with its price set at $3.5 million.

While these advanced therapies come with mind-boggling prices, prescription drug costs in the US are a problem across the board. In a KFF poll published in August, 28 percent of US adults reported difficulty affording their prescription medication, while 31 percent reported not taking their medicine as prescribed in the past year due to the cost. A federal report from 2022 found that Americans pay nearly three times more for prescription drugs than people in 33 other wealthy countries.

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Trash from the International Space Station may have hit a house in Florida

This cylindrical object, a few inches in size, fell through the roof of Alejandro Otero's home in Florida last month.

Enlarge / This cylindrical object, a few inches in size, fell through the roof of Alejandro Otero’s home in Florida last month.

A few weeks ago, something from the heavens came crashing through the roof of Alejandro Otero’s home, and NASA is on the case.

In all likelihood, this nearly two-pound object came from the International Space Station. Otero said it tore through the roof and both floors of his two-story house in Naples, Florida.

Otero wasn’t home at the time, but his son was there. A Nest home security camera captured the sound of the crash at 2: 34 pm local time (19: 34 UTC) on March 8. That’s an important piece of information because it is a close match for the time—2: 29 pm EST (19: 29 UTC)—that US Space Command recorded the reentry of a piece of space debris from the space station. At that time, the object was on a path over the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward southwest Florida.

This space junk consisted of depleted batteries from the ISS, attached to a cargo pallet that was originally supposed to come back to Earth in a controlled manner. But a series of delays meant this cargo pallet missed its ride back to Earth, so NASA jettisoned the batteries from the space station in 2021 to head for an unguided reentry.

Otero’s likely encounter with space debris was first reported by WINK News, the CBS affiliate for southwest Florida. Since then, NASA has recovered the debris from the homeowner, according to Josh Finch, an agency spokesperson.

Engineers at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center will analyze the object “as soon as possible to determine its origin,” Finch told Ars. “More information will be available once the analysis is complete.”

Ars reported on this reentry when it happened on March 8, noting that most of the material from the batteries and the cargo carrier would have likely burned up as they plunged through the atmosphere. Temperatures would have reached several thousand degrees, vaporizing most of the material before it could reach the ground.

The entire pallet, including the nine disused batteries from the space station’s power system, had a mass of more than 2.6 metric tons (5,800 pounds), according to NASA. Size-wise, it was about twice as tall as a standard kitchen refrigerator. It’s important to note that objects of this mass, or larger, regularly fall to Earth on guided trajectories, but they’re usually failed satellites or spent rocket stages left in orbit after completing their missions.

In a post on X, Otero said he is waiting for communication from “the responsible agencies” to resolve the cost of damages to his home.

Hello. Looks like one of those pieces missed Ft Myers and landed in my house in Naples.

Tore through the roof and went thru 2 floors. Almost his my son.

Can you please assist with getting NASA to connect with me? I’ve left messages and emails without a response. pic.twitter.com/Yi29f3EwyV

— Alejandro Otero (@Alejandro0tero) March 15, 2024

If the object is owned by NASA, Otero or his insurance company could make a claim against the federal government under the Federal Tort Claims Act, according to Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi.

“It gets more interesting if this material is discovered to be not originally from the United States,” she told Ars. “If it is a human-made space object which was launched into space by another country, which caused damage on Earth, that country would be absolutely liable to the homeowner for the damage caused.”

This could be an issue in this case. The batteries were owned by NASA, but they were attached to a pallet structure launched by Japan’s space agency.

Trash from the International Space Station may have hit a house in Florida Read More »

russia-has-a-plan-to-“restore”-its-dominant-position-in-the-global-launch-market

Russia has a plan to “restore” its dominant position in the global launch market

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Roscosmos Space Corporation Chief Yuri Borisov peruse an exhibit while visiting the Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation Energia, October 26, 2023, in Korolev, Russia.

Enlarge / Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Roscosmos Space Corporation Chief Yuri Borisov peruse an exhibit while visiting the Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation Energia, October 26, 2023, in Korolev, Russia.

Contributor/Getty Images

It has been a terrible decade for the Russian launch industry, which once led the world. The country’s long-running workhorse, the Proton rocket, ran into reliability issues and will soon be retired. Russia’s next-generation rocket, Angara, is fully expendable and still flying dummy payloads on test flights a decade after its debut. And the ever-reliable Soyuz vehicle lost access to lucrative Western markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yet there has been a more fundamental, underlying disease pushing the once-vaunted Russian launch industry toward irrelevance. The country has largely relied on decades-old technology in a time of serious innovation within the launch industry. So what worked at the turn of the century to attract the launches of commercial satellites no longer does against the rising tide of competition from SpaceX, as well as other players in India and China.

Through the first quarter of this year, Russia has launched a total of five rockets, all variants of the Soyuz vehicle. SpaceX alone has launched 32 rockets. China, too, has launched nearly three times as many boosters as Russia.

However, Russia has a plan to reclaim the dominance it once held in the global launch industry. In a recent interview published on the Roscosmos website (a non-geo-blocked version is available here) the chief of the Russian space corporation, Yuri Borisov, outlined the strategy by which the country will do so.

The first step, Borisov said, is to develop a partially reusable replacement for the Soyuz rocket, called Amur-CNG. The country’s spaceflight enterprise is also working on “ultralight” boosters that will incorporate an element of reusability.

“I hope that by the 2028–2029 timeframe we will have a completely new fleet of space vehicles and will be able to restore our position in the global launch services market,” Borisov said in the interview, which was translated for Ars by Rob Mitchell.

A miracle, Amur

Russia has previously discussed plans to develop the Amur rocket (the CNG refers to the propellant, liquified methane). The multi-engine vehicle looks somewhat similar to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket in that preliminary designs incorporated landing legs and grid fins to enable a powered first-stage landing.

The country’s space industry first unveiled its Amur plans back in 2020, when officials said they were targeting a low price of just $22 million for a launch on Amur, which would be capable of delivering 10.5 tons to low-Earth orbit. Essentially, then, it would offer about half the carrying capacity of a Falcon 9 rocket for one-third of the price.

At the time, Roscosmos officials were targeting a 2026 debut for Amur. Had they been able to deliver such a capability, it would undoubtedly be an attractively priced offering. Alas, the year 2026 appears to be off the table now. Through his comments, Borisov indicated that Amur will not be ready before 2028 or 2029.

Since there has been almost a year-for-year slippage in that date since Amur’s announcement in 2020, it seems likely that even this target late in the decade is unrealistic.

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The entire state of Illinois is going to be crawling with cicadas

BUZZ BUZZ BUZZ BUZZ BUZZ —

And the land shall feast on their dead.

Adult periodical cicada

Ed Reschke via Getty

Brace yourselves, Illinoisans: A truly shocking number of cicadas are about to live, make sweet love, and die in a tree near you. Two broods of periodical cicadas—Brood XIX on a 13-year cycle and Brood XIII on a 17-year cycle—are slated to emerge together in central Illinois this summer for the first time in over two centuries. To most humans, they’re an ephemeral spectacle and an ear-splitting nuisance, and then they’re gone. To many other Midwestern animals, plants, and microbes, they’re a rare feast, bringing new life to forests long past their death.

From Nebraska to New York, 15 broods of periodical cicadas grow underground, quietly sipping watery sap from tree roots. After 13 or 17 years (depending on the brood), countless inch-long adults dig themselves out in sync, crawling out of the ground en masse for a monthlong summer orgy. After mating, they lay eggs in forest trees and die, leaving their tree-born babies to fall to the forest floor and begin the cycle anew. Cicadas don’t fly far from their birthplace, so each brood occupies a distinct patch of the US. “They form a mosaic on the landscape,” says Chris Simon, senior research scientist in ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Connecticut.

Most years, at least one of these 15 broods emerges (annual cicadas, not to be confused with their smaller periodical cousins, pop up separately every summer). Sometimes two broods emerge at the same time. It’s also not unheard of for multiple broods to coexist in the same place. “What’s unusual is that these two broods are adjacent,” says John Lill, insect ecologist at George Washington University. “Illinois is going to be ground zero. From the very top to the very bottom of the state, it’s going to be covered in cicadas.” The last time that these broods swarmed aboveground together, Thomas Jefferson was president and the city of Chicago had yet to exist.

Entomologists around the world already have their flights booked for May. “We’re like cicada groupies,” Lill says. He promises that this once-in-a-generation spectacle will be even better than April’s total solar eclipse. During 2004’s Brood X emergence, Lill remembers walking outside at midnight. “For two seconds, I was like, ‘Wow, I didn’t know it was raining,’ because I saw water flowing down the street. As my eyes focused, I realized it was literally just thousands of cicadas crawling across the street.”

Some cicada devotees, like author and entomologist Greg Kritsky, have already witnessed Brood XIII emerge a couple of times. But for most of their predators, a brood emergence happens once in a lifetime, and it’s always an extremely pleasant surprise. “It’s a food bonanza,” Kritsky says, “like if you walked outside and found the whole world swarming with flying Hershey’s Kisses.”

Cicadas are shockingly chill, protein-packed, and taste like high-end shrimp—easy, delicious prey. “Periodical cicadas are sitting ducks,” says Lill. They don’t bite, sting, or poison anyone, and they’re totally unbothered by being handled. Dogs, raccoons, birds, and other generalist predators will gorge themselves on this flying feast until they’re stuffed, and it barely makes a dent in the cicada population. It’s their secret weapon, Lill says: In the absence of other defense mechanisms, “they just overwhelm predators by their sheer abundance.”

Much like an unexpected free dinner will distract you from the leftovers sitting in your fridge, this summer’s cicada emergence will turn predators away from their usual prey. During the 2021 Brood X emergence, Zoe Getman-Pickering, a scientist in Lill’s research group, found that as birds swooped in on cicadas, caterpillar populations exploded. Spared from birds, caterpillars chomped on twice as many oak leaves as normal—and the chain of effects went on and on. Scientists can’t possibly study them all. “The ecosystem gets a swift kick, with this unexpected perturbation that changes a lot of things at once,” says Louie Yang, an ecologist and professor of entomology at UC Davis.

From birth to death, these insects shape the forest around them. As temperatures rise in late April, pale, red-eyed cicada nymphs begin clawing pinky-sized holes in the ground, preparing for their grand May entrance. All of these tunnels make it easier for rainwater to move through the soil, where it can then be used by plants and other dirt-inhabiting microbes. Once fully grown and aboveground, adult cicadas shed their exoskeletons, unfurl their wings, and fly off to spend their remaining four to six weeks on Earth singing (if they’re male), listening for the sexiest songs (if they’re female), and mating.

Mother cicadas use the metal-enhanced saws built into their abdomens—wood-drilling shafts layered with elements like aluminum, copper, and iron—to slice pockets into tree branches, where they’ll lay roughly 500 eggs each. Sometimes, all of these cuts cause twigs to wither or snap, killing leaves. While this could permanently damage a very young sapling, mature trees simply shed the slashed branches and carry on. “It’s like natural pruning,” Kritsky says, which keeps hearty trees strong, prevents disease, and promotes flower growth.

Once mating season winds down, so does the cicada’s life. “In late summer, everybody forgets about cicadas,” Lill says. “They all die. They all rot in the ground. And then they’re gone.” By late June, there will be millions of pounds of cicadas piling up at the base of trees, decomposing. The smell, Kritsky says, “is a sentient memory you will never forget—like rancid Limburger cheese.”

But these stinky carcasses send a massive pulse of food to scavengers in the soil. “The cicadas serve as reservoirs of nutrients,” Yang says. “When they come out, they release all this stored energy into the ecosystem,” giving their bodies back to the plants that raised them. In the short term, dead cicadas have a fertilizing effect, feeding microbes in the soil and helping plants grow larger. And as their remnants make their way into woodland ponds and streams, cicada nutrients are carried downstream, where they may strengthen aquatic ecosystems far beyond their home tree.

They may smell like bad hamburgers, but Yang says that if you’re lucky enough to host a tree full of cicadas this year, it’s best to just leave their bodies alone to decompose naturally. “They’ll be gone soon enough,” he says. If the pileup is especially obtrusive, simply sweep them out of the way and let nature do the rest.

The thought of billions of screeching insects in your backyard might make your skin crawl, but you don’t need to be a passive observer when they arrive. Researchers are clamoring for citizen scientists to send in photos of their local cicadas to help map the upcoming emergence. The Cicada Safari app, developed by Kritsky, received and verified 561,000 cicada pics during the 2021 Brood X emergence—he hopes to get even more this time around.

“This is an amazing natural phenomenon to wonder about,” Lill says, “not something to be afraid of.”

This story originally appeared on wired.com.

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