Science

nasa-lays-out-how-spacex-will-refuel-starships-in-low-earth-orbit

NASA lays out how SpaceX will refuel Starships in low-Earth orbit

artemis, artemis iii, NASA, orbital refueling, Science, Space, spacex, starship / /
Artist's illustration of two Starships docked belly-to-belly in orbit.

Enlarge / Artist’s illustration of two Starships docked belly-to-belly in orbit.

SpaceX

Some time next year, NASA believes SpaceX will be ready to link two Starships in orbit for an ambitious refueling demonstration, a technical feat that will put the Moon within reach.

SpaceX is under contract with NASA to supply two human-rated Starships for the first two astronaut landings on the Moon through the agency’s Artemis program, which aims to return people to the lunar surface for the first time since 1972. The first of these landings, on NASA’s Artemis III mission, is currently targeted for 2026, although this is widely viewed as an ambitious schedule.

Last year, NASA awarded a contract to Blue Origin to develop its own human-rated Blue Moon lunar lander, giving Artemis managers two options for follow-on missions.

Designers of both landers were future-minded. They designed Starship and Blue Moon for refueling in space. This means they can eventually be reused for multiple missions, and ultimately, could take advantage of propellants produced from resources on the Moon or Mars.

Amit Kshatriya, who leads the “Moon to Mars” program within NASA’s exploration division, outlined SpaceX’s plan to do this in a meeting with a committee of the NASA Advisory Council on Friday. He said the Starship test program is gaining momentum, with the next test flight from SpaceX’s Starbase launch site in South Texas expected by the end of May.

“Production is not the issue,” Kshatriya said. “They’re rolling cores out. The engines are flowing into the factory. That is not the issue. The issue is it is a significant development challenge to do what they’re trying to do … We have to get on top of this propellant transfer problem. It is the right problem to try and solve. We’re trying to build a blueprint for deep space exploration.”

Road map to refueling

Before getting to the Moon, SpaceX and Blue Origin must master the technologies and techniques required for in-space refueling. Right now, SpaceX is scheduled to attempt the first demonstration of a large-scale propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit next year.

There will be at least several more Starship test flights before then. During the most recent Starship test flight in March, SpaceX conducted a cryogenic propellant transfer test between two tanks inside the vehicle. This tank-to-tank transfer of liquid oxygen was part of a demonstration supported with NASA funding. Agency officials said this demonstration would allow engineers to learn more about how the fluid behaves in a low-gravity environment.

Kshatriya said that while engineers are still analyzing the results of the cryogenic transfer demonstration, the test on the March Starship flight “was successful by all accounts.”

“That milestone is behind them,” he said Friday. Now, SpaceX will move out with more Starship test flights. The next launch will try to check off a few more capabilities SpaceX didn’t demonstrate on the March test flight.

These will include a precise landing of Starship’s Super Heavy booster in the Gulf of Mexico, which is necessary before SpaceX tries to land the booster back at its launch pad in Texas. Another objective will likely be the restart of a single Raptor engine on Starship in flight, which SpaceX didn’t accomplish on the March flight due to unexpected roll rates on the vehicle as it coasted through space. Achieving an in-orbit engine restart—necessary to guide Starship toward a controlled reentry—is a prerequisite for future launches into a stable higher orbit, where the ship could loiter for hours, days, or weeks to deploy satellites and attempt refueling.

In the long run, SpaceX wants to ramp up the Starship launch cadence to many daily flights from multiple launch sites. To achieve that goal, SpaceX plans to recover and rapidly reuse Starships and Super Heavy boosters, building on expertise from the partially reusable Falcon 9 rocket. Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and CEO, is keen on reusing ships and boosters as soon as possible. Earlier this month, Musk said he is optimistic SpaceX can recover a Super Heavy booster in Texas later this year and land a Starship back in Texas sometime next year.

NASA lays out how SpaceX will refuel Starships in low-Earth orbit Read More »

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Cats suffer H5N1 brain infections, blindness, death after drinking raw milk

bird flu, Cats, cows, dairy cows, H5N1, health, herds, infectious diseases, influenza, milk, Science / /

Spillover —

Mammal-to-mammal transmission raises new concerns about the virus’s ability to spread.

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Farm cats drinking from a trough of milk from cows that were just milked.

Enlarge / Farm cats drinking from a trough of milk from cows that were just milked.

On March 16, cows on a Texas dairy farm began showing symptoms of a mysterious illness now known to be H5N1 bird flu. Their symptoms were nondescript, but their milk production dramatically dropped and turned thick and creamy yellow. The next day, cats on the farm that had consumed some of the raw milk from the sick cows also became ill. While the cows would go on to largely recover, the cats weren’t so lucky. They developed depressed mental states, stiff body movements, loss of coordination, circling, copious discharge from their eyes and noses, and blindness. By March 20, over half of the farm’s 24 or so cats died from the flu.

In a study published today in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, researchers in Iowa, Texas, and Kansas found that the cats had H5N1 not just in their lungs but also in their brains, hearts, and eyes. The findings are similar to those seen in cats that were experimentally infected with H5N1, aka highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI). But, on the Texas dairy farm, they present an ominous warning of the potential for transmission of this dangerous and evolving virus.

The contaminated milk was the most likely source of the cat’s fatal infections, the study authors concluded. Although it can’t be entirely ruled out that the cats got sick from eating infected wild birds, the milk they drank from the sick cows was brimming with virus particles, and genetic data shows almost exact matches between the cows, their milk, and the cats. “Therefore, our findings suggest cross-species mammal-to-mammal transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus and raise new concerns regarding the potential for virus spread within mammal populations,” wrote the authors, who are veterinary researchers from Iowa, Texas, and Kansas.

The early outbreak data from the Texas farm suggests the virus is getting better and better at jumping to mammals, and data from elsewhere shows the virus is spreading widely in its newest host. On March 25, the US Department of Agriculture confirmed the presence of H5N1 in a dairy herd in Texas, marking the first time H5N1 had ever been known to cross over to cows. Since then, the USDA has tallied infections in at least 34 herds in nine states: Texas, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, Idaho, Ohio, South Dakota, North Carolina, and Colorado.

The Food and Drug Administration, meanwhile, has detected genetic traces of H5N1 in roughly 20 percent of commercial milk samples. While commercial milk is still considered safe—pasteurization is expected to destroy the virus and early testing by the FDA and other federal scientists confirms that expectation—the finding suggests yet wider spread of the virus among the country’s milk-producing cows.

Cows are only the latest addition to H5N1’s surprisingly broad host range. Amid a global outbreak over the past several years that has devastated wild bird populations and poultry farms, researchers have documented unexpected and often deadly outbreaks in mammals. Since 2022, the USDA has found H5N1 in over 200 mammals, from big cats in zoos to harbor seals, mountain lions, raccoons, skunks, squirrels, polar bears, black bears, foxes, and bottlenose dolphins.

“The recurring nature of global HPAI H5N1 virus outbreaks and detection of spillover events in a broad host range is concerning and suggests increasing virus adaptation in mammals,” the authors wrote. “Surveillance of HPAI viruses in domestic production animals, including cattle, is needed to elucidate influenza virus evolution and ecology and prevent cross-species transmission.”

In the meantime, it’s definitely not the time to start drinking raw cow’s milk. While drinking raw milk is always dangerous because it carries the threat of various nasty bacterial infections, H5N1 also appears to be infectious in raw milk. And, unlike other influenza viruses, H5N1 has the potential to infect organs beyond the lungs and respiratory tract, as seen in the cats. The authors of the new study note that a 2019 consumer survey found that 4.4 percent of adults in the US consumed raw milk more than once in the previous year, suggesting more public awareness of the dangers of raw milk is necessary.

Cats suffer H5N1 brain infections, blindness, death after drinking raw milk Read More »

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Swimming and spinning aquatic spiders use slick survival strategies

aquatic spiders, arachnids, Science, syndication / /

Spider (He is our hero) —

Some make nests inside seashells, others tote bubbles of air on their backs.

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Diving bell spider

Enlarge / Of all the aquatic spiders, the diving bell spider is the only one known to survive almost entirely underwater, using bubbles of air it brings down from the surface.

Shrubbery, toolsheds, basements—these are places one might expect to find spiders. But what about the beach? Or in a stream? Some spiders make their homes near or, more rarely, in water: tucking into the base of kelp stalks, spinning watertight cocoons in ponds or lakes, hiding under pebbles at the seaside or creek bank.

“Spiders are surprisingly adaptable, which is one of the reasons they can inhabit this environment,” says Ximena Nelson, a behavioral biologist at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand.

Finding aquatic or semiaquatic spiders is difficult work, Nelson says: She and a student have spent four years chasing a jumping spider known as Marpissa marina around the pebbly seaside beaches it likes, but too often, as soon as they manage to find one it disappears again under rocks. And sadly, some aquatic spiders may disappear altogether before they come to scientists’ attention, as their watery habitats shrivel due to climate change and other human activities.

What scientists do know is that dozens of described spider species spend at least some of their time in or near the water, and more are almost surely awaiting discovery, says Sarah Crews, an arachnologist at the California Academy of Sciences in San Francisco. It also appears that spiders evolved aquatic preferences on several distinct occasions during the history of this arthropod order. Crews and colleagues surveyed spiders and reported in 2019 that 21 taxonomic families include semiaquatic species, suggesting that the evolutionary event occurred multiple independent times. Only a swashbuckling few—not even 0.3 percent of described spider species—are seashore spiders; many more have been found near fresh water, says Nelson.

It’s not clear what would induce successful land-dwelling critters to move to watery habitats. Spiders, as a group, probably evolved about 400 million years ago from chunkier creatures that had recently left the water. These arthropods lacked the skinny waist sported by modern spiders. Presumably, the spiders that later returned to a life aquatic were strongly drawn by something to eat there, or driven by unsafe conditions on land, says Geerat Vermeij, a paleobiologist and professor emeritus at the University of California, Davis — because water would have presented major survival challenges.

“Since they depend on air so much, they are severely limited in whether they can do anything at all when they are submerged, other than just toughing it out,” says Vermeij. Newly aquatic spiders would have had to compete with predators better adapted to watery conditions, such as crustaceans, with competition particularly fierce in the oceans, Vermeij says. And if water floods a spider’s air circulation system, it will die, so adaptations were obviously needed.

Swimming and spinning aquatic spiders use slick survival strategies Read More »

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Why Germany ditched nuclear before coal—and why it won’t go back

coal, germany, nuclear power, Science, syndication / /
Jürgen Trittin, member of the German Bundestag and former environment minister, stands next to an activist during an action of the environmental organization Greenpeace in front of the Brandenburg Gate in April 2023. The action is to celebrate the shutdown of the last three German nuclear power plants.

Enlarge / Jürgen Trittin, member of the German Bundestag and former environment minister, stands next to an activist during an action of the environmental organization Greenpeace in front of the Brandenburg Gate in April 2023. The action is to celebrate the shutdown of the last three German nuclear power plants.

One year ago, Germany took its last three nuclear power stations offline. When it comes to energy, few events have baffled outsiders more.

In the face of climate change, calls to expedite the transition away from fossil fuels, and an energy crisis precipitated by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Berlin’s move to quit nuclear before carbon-intensive energy sources like coal has attracted significant criticism. (Greta Thunberg prominently labeled it “a mistake.”)

This decision can only be understood in the context of post-war socio-political developments in Germany, where anti-nuclearism predated the public climate discourse.

From a 1971 West German bestseller evocatively titled Peaceably into Catastrophe: A Documentation of Nuclear Power Plants, to huge protests of hundreds of thousands—including the largest-ever demonstration seen in the West German capital Bonn—the anti-nuclear movement attracted national attention and widespread sympathy. It became a major political force well before even the Chernobyl disaster of 1986.

Its motivations included: a distrust of technocracy; ecological, environmental, and safety fears; suspicions that nuclear energy could engender nuclear proliferation; and general opposition to concentrated power (especially after its extreme consolidation under the Nazi dictatorship).

Instead, activists championed what they regarded as safer, greener, and more accessible renewable alternatives like solar and wind, embracing their promise of greater self-sufficiency, community participation, and citizen empowerment (“energy democracy”).

This support for renewables was less about CO₂ and more aimed at resetting power relations (through decentralised, bottom-up generation rather than top-down production and distribution), protecting local ecosystems, and promoting peace in the context of the Cold War.

Germany’s Energiewende

The contrast here with Thunberg’s latter-day Fridays for Future movement and its “listen to the experts” slogan is striking. The older activist generation deliberately rejected the mainstream expertise of the time, which then regarded centralised nuclear power as the future and mass deployment of distributed renewables as a pipe dream.

This earlier movement was instrumental in creating Germany’s Green Party—today the world’s most influential—which emerged in 1980 and first entered national government from 1998 to 2005 as junior partner to the Social Democrats. This “red-green” coalition banned new reactors, announced a shutdown of existing ones by 2022, and passed a raft of legislation supporting renewable energy.

That, in turn, turbocharged the national deployment of renewables, which ballooned from 6.3 percent of gross domestic electricity consumption in 2000 to 51.8 percent in 2023.

These figures are all the more remarkable given the contributions of ordinary citizens. In 2019, they owned fully 40.4 percent (and over 50 percent in the early 2010s) of Germany’s total installed renewable power generation capacity, whether through community wind energy cooperatives, farm-based biogas installations, or household rooftop solar.

Most other countries’ more recent energy transitions have been attempts to achieve net-zero targets using whatever low-carbon technologies are available. Germany’s now-famous “Energiewende” (translated as “energy transition” or even “energy revolution”), however, has from its earlier inception sought to shift away from both carbon-intensive as well as nuclear energy to predominantly renewable alternatives.

Indeed, the very book credited with coining the term Energiewende in 1980 was, significantly, titled Energie-Wende: Growth and Prosperity Without Oil and Uranium and published by a think tank founded by anti-nuclear activists.

Consecutive German governments have, over the past two and a half decades, more or less hewed to this line. Angela Merkel’s pro-nuclear second cabinet (2009–13) was an initial exception.

That lasted until the 2011 Fukushima disaster, after which mass protests of 250,000 and a shock state election loss to the Greens forced that administration, too, to revert to the 2022 phaseout plan. Small wonder that so many politicians today are reluctant to reopen that particular Pandora’s box.

Another ongoing political headache is where to store the country’s nuclear waste, an issue Germany has never managed to solve. No community has consented to host such a facility, and those designated for this purpose have seen large-scale protests.

Instead, radioactive waste has been stored in temporary facilities close to existing reactors—no long-term solution.

Why Germany ditched nuclear before coal—and why it won’t go back Read More »

20%-of-grocery-store-milk-has-traces-of-bird-flu,-suggesting-wider-outbreak

20% of grocery store milk has traces of bird flu, suggesting wider outbreak

bird flu, CDC, cows, fda, H5N1, health, Infectious disease, milk, Science, USDA, virus / /

widespread —

The milk is still considered safe, but disease experts are alarmed by the prevalence.

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20% of grocery store milk has traces of bird flu, suggesting wider outbreak

The Food and Drug Administration reported late Thursday that about 20 percent of retail milk samples from around the country tested positive for genetic fragments of the bird flu, aka highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1. While retail milk is still considered to be safe, the finding suggests that the spread of the virus in cows is more extensive than is currently known.

The FDA used a test called quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), which can only detect the presence of genetic fragments. In pasteurized retail milk, it is highly likely that those genetic snippets are merely remnants of virus particles destroyed during pasteurization. The FDA is currently conducting additional testing using egg inoculation tests, a gold standard for detecting a live virus, to confirm the effectiveness of pasteurization. Meanwhile, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Jeanne Marrazzo, told reporters Wednesday that tests at the agency’s federal labs so far did not identify live virus from any of its sampling. Additionally, several previous studies have found that pasteurization of eggs—which is done at a lower temperature than it is for milk—was effective at destroying H5N1.

While experts are largely unconcerned with the safety of commercial milk, the potential for wide, unrecognized spread of bird flu in dairy herds is alarming. To date, the US Department of Agriculture has only confirmed infections in 33 herds in eight states. The FDA acknowledged that of its positive samples, “a greater proportion of positive results [are] coming from milk in areas with infected herds.” But with tens of thousands of dairy herds in the US, the finding suggests that infections are being missed. It does not necessarily suggest that 20 percent of all cows are affected, since milk is pooled for commercial distribution. But 33 herds alone are unlikely to explain the high prevalence.

Last week, The New York Times reported that the one dairy herd that tested positive for bird flu in North Carolina did not show any symptoms of the infection. The possibility of asymptomatic spread of the virus among cows will make containment and monitoring far more difficult—and could explain why infections may be easily missed. On Wednesday, the USDA issued a federal order requiring dairy cattle to have a negative H5N1 test before being moved across state lines.

For now, the risk to the public is still considered low by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But the more the bird flu virus spreads among mammals—and mammals with close contact with humans—the more opportunities it has to evolve to jump to and among people, experts warn.

20% of grocery store milk has traces of bird flu, suggesting wider outbreak Read More »

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Lost opportunity: We could’ve started fighting climate change in 1971

climate change, CO2, CO2 emissions, exxon, Science, syndication / /
President Nixon on the phone in the Oval Office

Enlarge / A newly revealed research proposal from 1971 shows that Richard Nixon’s science advisors embarked on an extensive analysis of the potential risks of climate change.

Oliver Atkins/National Archives

In 1971, President Richard Nixon’s science advisers proposed a multimillion dollar climate change research project with benefits they said were too “immense” to be quantified, since they involved “ensuring man’s survival,” according to a White House document newly obtained by the nonprofit National Security Archive and shared exclusively with Inside Climate News.

The plan would have established six global and 10 regional monitoring stations in remote locations to collect data on carbon dioxide, solar radiation, aerosols and other factors that exert influence on the atmosphere. It would have engaged five government agencies in a six-year initiative, with spending of $23 million in the project’s peak year of 1974—the equivalent of $172 million in today’s dollars. It would have used then-cutting-edge technology, some of which is only now being widely implemented in carbon monitoring more than 50 years later.

But it stands as yet another lost opportunity early on the road to the climate crisis. Researchers at the National Security Archive, based at the George Washington University, could find no documentation of what happened to the proposal, and it was never implemented.

“Who knows what would have happened if we had some kind of concerted effort, just even on the monitoring side of things?” asked Rachel Santarsiero, an analyst who directs the National Security Archive’s Climate Change Transparency Project.

It turns out that the monitoring proposal, which was authorized by the head of Nixon’s White House Office of Science and Technology, Edward E. David Jr., did get a second life in another form. After leaving the Nixon administration, David joined the oil giant Exxon, and as president of the Exxon Research and Engineering Company from 1977 to 1986, he signed off on a groundbreaking Exxon project that used one of its oil tankers to gather atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide samples, beginning in 1979. That research, which was first reported by Inside Climate News in 2015, confirmed fossil fuels’ role in global warming. It also showed the oil industry knew the harm of its products and is now a key piece of evidence in lawsuits by states and cities across the country seeking compensation from the oil industry for climate damages.

The National Security Archive relies on the Freedom of Information Act to obtain such historical documents, and it currently maintains one of the largest non-governmental archives of declassified government documents—many relating to military and security issues. In the past year, the Archive has launched a project specifically to compile the historical record of the US government’s reckoning with climate change. On Friday, to mark Earth Week, the group released a briefing book detailing climate change discussions in the Nixon White House, including the new document.

Lost opportunity: We could’ve started fighting climate change in 1971 Read More »

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Rocket Report: SLS workforce cuts; New Glenn launch to launch in the early fall

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All the news that’s fit to lift —

“This is a vital component in our preparations for launch.”

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The flight hardware core stage for Europe’s new rocket, Ariane 6, is moved onto the launch pad for the first time this week. A launch is possible some time this summer.

Enlarge / The flight hardware core stage for Europe’s new rocket, Ariane 6, is moved onto the launch pad for the first time this week. A launch is possible some time this summer.

ESA-M. Pédoussaut

Welcome to Edition 6.41 of the Rocket Report! As I finish up this edition I’m listening to the post-Flight Readiness Review news conference for Boeing’s Crew Flight Test. It sounds like everything remains on track for a launch attempt on May 6, at 10: 34 pm ET. It’s exciting to see this important milestone for Boeing and the US human spaceflight program so near to hand.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Shetland spaceport advancing toward launch. SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland is on track to launch the United Kingdom’s first vertical rocket into orbit, the BBC reports. The Civil Aviation Authority has granted a range license to the Scottish spaceport, which will allow the company to control the sea and airspace during launch. Previously, the site received a spaceport license in December 2023. Ambitiously, the facility aims to launch up to 30 rockets every year.

From Germany to Scotland with love … “This is a vital component in our preparations for launch,” said Frank Strang, chief executive of SaxaVord Spaceport. “As Western Europe’s only fully licensed vertical launch spaceport, we are now preparing to make more space history with the beginning of orbital launch operations well underway.” Germany-based rocket manufacturer Rocket Factory Augsburg could be the first to launch an orbital mission from Shetland later this year. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Rocket Lab launches 5th Electron this year. Rocket Lab launched a South Korean smallsat and a NASA solar sail experiment on the company’s fifth flight of the year on Tuesday, Space News reports. NEONSAT-1, the primary payload of the mission, is an imaging satellite with a mass of about 100 kilograms. The spacecraft is part of a constellation of 11 spacecraft called New-space Earth Observation Satellite Constellation for National Safety, with the other 10 to be launched by South Korea’s Nuri rocket in 2026 and 2027.

Better get busy … This was the first Electron launch in more than a month after a mission for the National Reconnaissance Office on March 21 from Rocket Lab’s Launch Complex 2 in Virginia. Company executives said in an earnings call in February that the company has 22 Electron launches planned for the year, two of which are of its HASTE suborbital version. That would be an impressive total if Rocket Lab can achieve it. (submitted by Jay500001)

The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s space reporting is to sign up for his newsletter, we’ll collect his stories in your inbox.

PLD Space has raised 120 million euros. The Spanish launch startup revealed this week that it has raised 120 million euros to date, providing the funding needed to launch its orbital Miura 5 rocket by the end of 2025. Last October the company’s smaller, suborbital Miura 1 rocket made what the company characterized as a “successful” test flight, reaching an altitude of 46 km. By my very rough rule of thumb, a launch company must have at least $100 million in funding to have a fighting chance to reach orbit.

Building new buildings … The Miura 5 vehicle is intended to have a capacity of up to 250 kg in low-Earth orbit. The new funding will mainly be used for the expansion of PLD Space’s infrastructure, increasing the size of its facilities from 169,000 to 834,000 square meters. The company also plans to begin building a launch site for the Miura 5 rocket in Kourou, French Guiana, later this year. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

SpaceX lands 300th Falcon booster. With the launch of a Starlink mission on Tuesday evening and subsequent return of the Falcon 9 first stage, SpaceX recorded its 300th successful booster landing. In the Falcon fleet’s lifetime, SpaceX has now landed about 85 percent of the Falcon rockets it has launched, Ars reports. These days, more than 90 percent of all its missions launch on previously flown boosters. So, rocket recycling is totally a thing.

Saving a lot of metal … Landing 300 rockets means SpaceX has preserved 2,700 Merlin rocket engines. In round numbers, the dry mass of a Falcon 9 first stage is about 50 metric tons, so the landing of all these rockets has prevented 15,000 metric tons of metal and other materials from being dumped into the oceans. To put this number further into perspective, only a handful of rockets have ever launched more than 300 times, and they are all Russian.

China launches astronaut mission. A Long March 2F rocket lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert on Thursday, carrying the Shenzhou 18 spacecraft and its three-person crew into orbit, Space.com reports. Shenzhou 18 is commanded by Ye Guangfu, 43, who was part of the Shenzhou 13 mission three years ago. Fighter pilots Li Cong, 34, and Li Guangsu, 36, both spaceflight rookies, make up the rest of the crew.

A change in control … The three will spend around six months in space. Their spacecraft is scheduled to reach the Tiangong space station 6.5 hours after launch. The trio will be greeted aboard the orbital outpost by Tang Hongbo, Tang Shengjie, and Jiang Xinlin, who make up the Shenzhou 17 crew. The latter three will soon complete their six months in orbit. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Rocket Report: SLS workforce cuts; New Glenn launch to launch in the early fall Read More »

us’s-power-grid-continues-to-lower-emissions—everything-else,-not-so-much

US’s power grid continues to lower emissions—everything else, not so much

carbon emissions, coal, electric grid, Energy, natural gas, Science, solar, Sustainability, Wind / /

Down, but not down enough —

Excluding one pandemic year, emissions are lower than they’ve been since the 1980s.

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Graph showing total US carbon emissions, along with individual sources. Most trends are largely flat or show slight declines.

On Thursday, the US Department of Energy released its preliminary estimate for the nation’s carbon emissions in the previous year. Any drop in emissions puts us on a path that would avoid some of the catastrophic warming scenarios that were still on the table at the turn of the century. But if we’re to have a chance of meeting the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the planet from warming beyond 2° C, we’ll need to see emissions drop dramatically in the near future.

So, how is the US doing? Emissions continue to trend downward, but there’s no sign the drop has accelerated. And most of the drop has come from a single sector: changes in the power grid.

Off the grid, on the road

US carbon emissions have been trending downward since roughly 2007, when they peaked at about six gigatonnes. In recent years, the pandemic produced a dramatic drop in emissions in 2020, lowering them to under five gigatonnes for the first time since before 1990, when the EIA’s data started. Carbon dioxide release went up a bit afterward, with 2023 marking the first post-pandemic decline, with emissions again clearly below five gigatonnes.

The DOE’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) divides the sources of carbon dioxide into five different sectors: electricity generation, transportation, and residential, commercial, and industrial uses. The EIA assigns 80 percent of the 2023 reduction in US emissions to changes in the electric power grid, which is not a shock given that it’s the only sector that’s seen significant change in the entire 30-year period the EIA is tracking.

With hydro in the rearview mirror, wind and solar are coming after coal and nuclear.

With hydro in the rearview mirror, wind and solar are coming after coal and nuclear.

What’s happening with the power grid? Several things. At the turn of the century, coal accounted for over half of the US’s electricity generation; it’s now down to 16 percent. Within the next two years, it’s likely to be passed by wind and solar, which were indistinguishable from zero percent of generation as recently as 2004. Things would be even better for them if not for generally low wind speeds leading to a decline in wind generation in 2023. The biggest change, however, has been the rise of natural gas, which went from 10 percent of generation in 1990 to over 40 percent in 2023.

A small contributor to the lower emissions came from lower demand—it dropped by a percentage point compared to 2022. Electrification of transport and appliances, along with the growth of AI processing, are expected to send demand soaring in the near future, but there’s no indication of that on the grid yet.

Currently, generating electricity accounts for 30 percent of the US’s carbon emissions. That places it as the second most significant contributor, behind transportation, which is responsible for 39 percent of emissions. The EIA rates transportation emissions as unchanged relative to 2022, despite seeing air travel return to pre-pandemic levels and a slight increase in gasoline consumption. Later in this decade, tighter fuel efficiency rules are expected to drive a decline in transportation emissions, which are only down about 10 percent compared to their 2006 peak.

Buildings and industry

The remaining sectors—commercial, residential, and industrial—have a more complicated relationship with fossil fuels. Some of their energy comes via the grid, so its emissions are already accounted for. Thanks to the grid decarbonizing, these would be going down, but for business and residential use, grid-dependent emissions are dropping even faster than that would imply. This suggests that things like more efficient lighting and appliances are having an impact.

Separately, direct use of fossil fuels for things like furnaces, water heaters, etc., has been largely flat for the entire 30 years the EIA is looking at, although milder weather led to a slight decline in 2023 (8 percent for residential properties, 4 percent for commercial).

In contrast, the EIA only tracks the direct use of fossil fuels for industrial processes. These are down slightly over the 30-year period but have been fairly stable since the 2008 economic crisis, with no change in emissions between 2022 and 2023. As with the electric grid, the primary difference in this sector has been due to the growth of natural gas and the decline of coal.

Overall, there are two ways to look at this data. The first is that progress at limiting carbon emissions has been extremely limited and that there has been no progress at all in several sectors. The more optimistic view is that the technologies for decarbonizing the electric grid and improving building electrical usage are currently the most advanced, and the US has focused its decarbonization efforts where they’ll make the most difference.

From either perspective, it’s clear that the harder challenges are still coming, both in terms of accelerating decarbonization, and in terms of tackling sectors where decarbonization will be harder. The Biden administration has been working to put policies in place that should drive progress in this regard, but we probably won’t see much of their impact until early in the following decade.

Listing image by Yaorusheng

US’s power grid continues to lower emissions—everything else, not so much Read More »

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Russia stands alone in vetoing UN resolution on nuclear weapons in space

anti-satellite tests, military space, Nuclear weapons, russia, Science, Space, United Nations / /

ASAT —

“The United States assesses that Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device.”

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A meeting of the UN Security Council on April 14.

Enlarge / A meeting of the UN Security Council on April 14.

Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution Wednesday that would have reaffirmed a nearly 50-year-old ban on placing weapons of mass destruction into orbit, two months after reports Russia has plans to do just that.

Russia’s vote against the resolution was no surprise. As one of the five permanent members of the Security Council, Russia has veto power over any resolution that comes before the body. China abstained from the vote, and 13 other members of the Security Council voted in favor of the resolution.

If it passed, the resolution would have affirmed a binding obligation in Article IV of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which says nations are “not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction.”

Going nuclear

Russia is one of 115 parties to the Outer Space Treaty. The Security Council vote Wednesday follows reports in February that Russia is developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon.

“The United States assesses that Russia is developing a new satellite carrying a nuclear device,” said Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security advisor. “We have heard President Putin say publicly that Russia has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space. If that were the case, Russia would not have vetoed this resolution.”

The United States and Japan proposed the joint resolution, which also called on nations not to develop nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction designed to be placed into orbit around the Earth. In a statement, US and Japanese diplomats highlighted the danger of a nuclear detonation in space. Such an event would have “grave implications for sustainable development, and other aspects of international peace and security,” US officials said in a press release.

With its abstention from the vote, “China has shown that it would rather defend Russia as its junior partner, than safeguard the global nonproliferation regime,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN.

US government officials have not offered details about the exact nature of the anti-satellite weapon they say Russia is developing. A nuclear explosion in orbit would destroy numerous satellites—from many countries—and endanger astronauts. Space debris created from a nuclear detonation could clutter orbital traffic lanes needed for future spacecraft.

The Soviet Union launched more than 30 military satellites powered by nuclear reactors. Russia’s military space program languished in the first couple of decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, and US intelligence officials say it still lags behind the capabilities possessed by the US Space Force and the Chinese military.

Russia’s military funding has largely gone toward the war in Ukraine for the last two years, but Putin and other top Russian officials have raised threats of nuclear force and attacks on space assets against adversaries. Russia’s military launched a cyberattack against a commercial satellite communications network when it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has long had an appetite for anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. The Soviet Union experimented with “co-orbital” ASATs in the 1960s and 1970s. When deployed, these co-orbital ASATs would have attacked enemy satellites by approaching them and detonating explosives or using a grappling arm to move the target out of orbit.

Russian troops at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in far northern Russia prepare for the launch of a Soyuz rocket with the Kosmos 2575 satellite in February.

Enlarge / Russian troops at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in far northern Russia prepare for the launch of a Soyuz rocket with the Kosmos 2575 satellite in February.

Russian Ministry of Defense

In 1987, the Soviet Union launched an experimental weapons platform into orbit to test laser technologies that could be used against enemy satellites. Russia shot down one of its own satellites in 2021 in a widely condemned “direct ascent” ASAT test. This Russian direct ascent ASAT test followed demonstrations of similar capability by China, the United States, and India. Russia’s military has also demonstrated satellites over the last decade that could grapple onto an adversary’s spacecraft in orbit, or fire a projectile to take out an enemy satellite.

These ASAT capabilities could destroy or disable one enemy satellite at a time. The US Space Force is getting around this threat by launching large constellations of small satellites to augment the military’s much larger legacy communications, surveillance, and missile warning spacecraft. A nuclear ASAT weapon could threaten an entire constellation or render some of space inaccessible due to space debris.

Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, called this week’s UN resolution “an unscrupulous play of the United States” and a “cynical forgery and deception.” Russia and China proposed an amendment to the resolution that would have banned all weapons in space. This amendment got the support of about half of the Security Council but did not pass.

Outside the 15-member Security Council, the original resolution proposed by the United States and Japan won the support of more than 60 nations as co-sponsors.

“Regrettably, one permanent member decided to silence the critical message we wanted to send to the present and future people of the world: Outer space must remain a domain of peace, free of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons,” said Kazuyuki Yamazaki, Japan’s ambassador to the UN.

Russia stands alone in vetoing UN resolution on nuclear weapons in space Read More »

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Three women contract HIV from dirty “vampire facials” at unlicensed spa

CDC, health, HIV, Infectious disease, outbreak, outbreak investigation, platelet-rich plasma, Science, spa, vampire facials / /

Yikes —

Five patients with links to the spa had viral genetic sequences that closely matched.

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Drops of the blood going onto an HIV quick test.

Enlarge / Drops of the blood going onto an HIV quick test.

Trendy, unproven “vampire facials” performed at an unlicensed spa in New Mexico left at least three women with HIV infections. This marks the first time that cosmetic procedures have been associated with an HIV outbreak, according to a detailed report of the outbreak investigation published today.

Ars reported on the cluster last year when state health officials announced they were still identifying cases linked to the spa despite it being shut down in September 2018. But today’s investigation report offers more insight into the unprecedented outbreak, which linked five people with HIV infections to the spa and spurred investigators to contact and test nearly 200 other spa clients. The report appears in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The investigation began when a woman between the ages of 40 and 50 turned up positive on a rapid HIV test taken while she was traveling abroad in the summer of 2018. She had a stage 1 acute infection. It was a result that was as dumbfounding as it was likely distressing. The woman had no clear risk factors for acquiring the infection: no injection drug use, no blood transfusions, and her current and only recent sexual partner tested negative. But, she did report getting a vampire facial in the spring of 2018 at a spa in Albuquerque called VIP Spa.

“Vampire facial” is the common name for a platelet-rich plasma microneedling procedure. In this treatment, a patient’s blood is drawn, spun down to separate out plasma from blood cells, and the platelet-rich plasma is then injected into the face with microneedles. It’s claimed—with little evidence—that it can rejuvenate and improve the look of skin, and got notable promotions from celebrities, including Gwyneth Paltrow and Kim Kardashian.

The woman’s case led investigators to VIP Spa, which was unlicensed, had no appointment scheduling system, and did not store client contact information. In an inspection in the fall of 2018, health investigators found shocking conditions: unwrapped syringes in drawers and counters, unlabeled tubes of blood sitting out on a kitchen counter, more unlabeled blood and medical injectables alongside food in a kitchen fridge, and disposable equipment—electric desiccator tips—that were reused. The facility also did not have an autoclave—a pressurized oven—for sterilizing equipment.

A novel and challenging investigation

The spa was quickly shut down, and the owner Maria de Lourdes Ramos De Ruiz, 62, was charged with practicing medicine without a license. In 2022, she pleaded guilty to five counts and is serving a three-and-a-half-year prison sentence.

A second spa client, another woman between the ages of 40 and 50, tested positive for HIV in a screen in the fall of 2018 and received a diagnosis in early 2019. She has received a vampire facial in the summer of 2018. Her HIV infection was also at stage 1. Investigators scrambled to track down dozens of other clients, who mostly spoke Spanish as their first language. The next two identified cases weren’t diagnosed until the fall of 2021.

The two cases diagnosed in 2021 were sexual partners: a woman who received three vampire facials in the spring and summer of 2018 from the spa and her male partner. Both had a stage 3 HIV infection, which is when the infection has developed into Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). The severity of the infections suggested the two had been infected prior to the woman’s 2018 spa treatments. Health officials uncovered that the woman had tested positive in an HIV screen in 2016, though she did not report being notified of the result.

The health officials reopened their outbreak investigation in 2023 and found a fifth case that was diagnosed in the spring of 2023, which was also in a woman aged 40 to 50 who had received a vampire facial in the summer of 2018. She had a stage 3 infection and was hospitalized with an AIDS-defining illness.

Viral genetic sequencing from the five cases shows that the infections are all closely related. But, given the extent of the unsanitary and contaminated conditions at the facility, investigators were unable to determine precisely how the infections spread in the spa. In all, 198 spa clients were tested for HIV between 2018 and 2023, the investigators report.

“Incomplete spa client records posed a substantial challenge during this investigation, necessitating a large-scale outreach approach to identify potential cases,” the authors acknowledge. However, the investigation’s finding “underscores the importance of determining possible novel sources of HIV transmission among persons with no known HIV risk factors.”

Three women contract HIV from dirty “vampire facials” at unlicensed spa Read More »

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Deciphered Herculaneum papyrus reveals precise burial place of Plato

Archaeology, herculaneum, Herculaneum scrolls, PLATO, Science / /

As he lay buried —

Various imaging methods comprised a kind of “bionic eye” to examine charred scroll.

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flattened ancient papyrus on a table with lights and cameras overhead

Enlarge / Imaging setup for a charred ancient papyrus recovered from the ruins of Herculaneum; 30 percent of the text has now been deciphered.

CNR – Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

Historical accounts vary about how the Greek philosopher Plato died: in bed while listening to a young woman playing the flute; at a wedding feast; or peacefully in his sleep. But the few surviving texts from that period indicate that the philosopher was buried somewhere in the garden of the Academy he founded in Athens. The garden was quite large, but archaeologists have now deciphered a charred ancient papyrus scroll recovered from the ruins of Herculaneum, indicating a more precise burial location: in a private area near a sacred shrine to the Muses, according to Constanza Millani, director of the Institute of Heritage Science at Italy’s National Research Council.

As previously reported, the ancient Roman resort town Pompeii wasn’t the only city destroyed in the catastrophic 79 AD eruption of Mount Vesuvius. Several other cities in the area, including the wealthy enclave of Herculaneum, were fried by clouds of hot gas called pyroclastic pulses and flows. But still, some remnants of Roman wealth survived. One palatial residence in Herculaneum—believed to have once belonged to a man named Piso—contained hundreds of priceless written scrolls made from papyrus, singed into carbon by volcanic gas.

The scrolls stayed buried under volcanic mud until they were excavated in the 1700s from a single room that archaeologists believe held the personal working library of an Epicurean philosopher named Philodemus. There may be even more scrolls still buried on the as-yet-unexcavated lower floors of the villa. The few opened fragments helped scholars identify various Greek philosophical texts, including On Nature by Epicurus and several by Philodemus himself, as well as a handful of Latin works. But the more than 600 rolled-up scrolls were so fragile that it was long believed they would never be readable, since even touching them could cause them to crumble.

Scientists have brought all manner of cutting-edge tools to bear on deciphering badly damaged ancient texts like the Herculaneum scrolls. For instance, in 2019, German scientists used a combination of physics techniques (synchrotron radiation, infrared spectroscopy, and X-ray fluorescence) to virtually “unfold” an ancient Egyptian papyrus.

Brent Searles’ lab at the University of Kentucky has been working on deciphering the Herculaneum scrolls for many years. He employs a different method of “virtually unrolling” damaged scrolls, using digital scanning with micro-computed tomography—a noninvasive technique often used for cancer imaging—with segmentation to digitally create pages, augmented with texturing and flattening techniques. Then they developed software (Volume Cartography) to virtually unroll the scroll.

The older Herculaneum scrolls were written with carbon-based ink (charcoal and water), so one would not get the same fluorescing in the CT scans, but the scans can still capture minute textural differences indicating those areas of papyrus that contained ink compared to the blank areas, and it’s possible to train an artificial neural network to do just that.

History of the Academy text that were previously illegible.” height=”401″ src=”https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/plato4-640×401.jpg” width=”640″>

Enlarge / Infrared and X-ray scanners have deciphered more than 1,000 words of Philodemus’ History of the Academy text that were previously illegible.

D.P. Pavone

This latest work is under the auspices of the “GreekSchools” project, funded by the European Research Council, which began three years ago and will continue through 2026. This time around, scholars have used infrared, ultraviolet optical imaging, thermal imaging, tomography, and digital optical microscopy as a kind of “bionic eye” to examine Philodemus’ History of the Academy scroll, which was also written in carbon-based ink. Nonetheless, they were able to extract over 1,000 words, approximately 30 percent of the scroll’s text, revealing new details about Plato’s life as well as his place of burial.

Most notably, the historical account of Plato being sold into slavery in his later years after running afoul of the tyrannical Dionysius is usually pegged to around 387 BCE. According to the newly deciphered Philodemus text, however, Plato’s enslavement may have occurred as early as 404 BCE or shortly after the death of Socrates in 399 BCE.

“Compared to previous editions, there is now an almost radically changed text, which implies a series of new and concrete facts about various academic philosophers,” Graziano Ranocchia, lead researcher on the project, said. “Through the new edition and its contextualization, scholars have arrived at unexpected interdisciplinary deductions for ancient philosophy, Greek biography and literature, and the history of the book.”

Other deciphering efforts are also still underway. For instance, last fall we reported on the use of machine learning to decipher the first letters from a previously unreadable ancient scroll found in an ancient Roman villa at Herculaneum—part of the 2023 Vesuvius Challenge. And earlier this year tech entrepreneur and challenge co-founder Nat Friedman announced via X (formerly Twitter) that they had awarded the grand prize of $700,000 for producing the first readable text.

When the Vesuvius Challenge co-founders started the challenge, they thought there was less than a 30 percent chance of success within the year since, at the time, no one had been able to read actual letters inside of a scroll. However, the crowdsourcing approach proved wildly successful. That said, it’s still just 5 percent of a single scroll.

So there is a new challenge for 2024: $100,000 for the first entry that can read 90 percent of the four scrolls scanned thus far. The primary goal is to perfect the auto-segmentation process since doing so manually is both time-consuming and expensive (more than $100 per square centimeter). This will lay the foundation for one day being able to scan and read all 800 scrolls discovered so far, as well as any additional scrolls that are unearthed should the remaining levels of the villa finally be excavated.

Deciphered Herculaneum papyrus reveals precise burial place of Plato Read More »

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We may have spotted the first magnetar flare outside our galaxy

astronomy, astrophysics, gamma rays, giant flare, magnetar, neutron star, Science / /

Magnetars: how do they work? —

Not all gamma-ray bursts come from supernovae.

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Image of a whitish smear running diagonally across the frame, with a complex, branching bit of red material in the foreground.

Enlarge / M82, the site of what’s likely to be a giant flare from a magnetar.

NASA, ESA and the Hubble Heritage Team

Gamma rays are a broad category of high-energy photons, including everything with more energy than an X-ray. While they are often created by processes like radioactive decay, few astronomical events produce them in sufficient quantities that they can be detected when the radiation originates in another galaxy.

That said, the list is larger than one, which means detecting gamma rays doesn’t mean we know what event produced them. At lower energies, they can be produced in the areas around black holes and by neutron stars. Supernovae can also produce a sudden burst of gamma rays, as can the merger of compact objects like neutron stars.

And then there are magnetars. These are neutron stars that, at least temporarily, have extreme magnetic fields—over 1012 times stronger than the Sun’s magnetic field. Magnetars can experience flares and even giant flares where they send out copious amounts of energy, including gamma rays. These can be difficult to distinguish from gamma-ray bursts generated by the merger of compact objects, so the only confirmed magnetar giant bursts have happened in our own galaxy or its satellites. Until now, apparently.

What was that?

The burst in question was spotted by the ESA’s Integral gamma-ray observatory, among others, in November 2023. GRB 231115A was short, lasting only about 50 milliseconds at some wavelengths. While longer gamma-ray bursts can be produced by the formation of black holes during supernovae, this short burst is similar to those expected to be seen when neutron stars merge.

The directional data from Integral placed GRB 231115A right on top of a nearby galaxy, M82, which is also known as the Cigar Galaxy. M82 is what is called a starburst galaxy, which means that it’s forming stars at a rapid clip, with the burst likely to have been triggered by interactions with its neighbors. Overall, the galaxy is forming stars at a rate more than 10 times that of the Milky Way. That means lots of supernovae, but it also means a large population of young neutron stars, some of which will form magnetars.

That doesn’t rule out the possibility that M82 happened to be sitting in front of a gamma-ray burst from a distant event. However, the researchers use two different methods to show that this is pretty improbable, which leaves something happening inside the galaxy as being the most likely source of the gamma rays.

It could still be a gamma-ray burst happening within M82, except the estimated total energy of the burst is much lower than we’d expect from those events. A supernova should also be detected at other wavelengths, but there was no sign of one (and they typically produce longer bursts anyway). An alternative source, the fusion of two compact objects such as neutron stars, would have been detectable using our gravitational wave observatories, but no signal was apparent at this time. These events also frequently leave behind X-ray sources, but no new sources are visible in M82.

So, it looks like a magnetar giant flare, and the potential explanations for a brief burst of gamma radiation don’t really work for GRB 231115A.

Looking for more

The exact mechanism by which magnetars produce gamma rays isn’t entirely worked out. It is thought to involve the rearrangement of the crust of the neutron star, forced by the intense forces generated by the staggeringly intense magnetic field. Giant flares are thought to require magnetic field strengths of at least 1015 gauss; Earth’s magnetic field is less than one gauss.

Assuming that the event sent radiation off in all directions rather than directing it toward Earth, the researchers estimate that the total energy released was 1045 ergs, which translates to roughly 1022 megatons of TNT. So, while it’s less energetic than neutron star mergers, it’s still an impressively energetic event.

To understand them better, however, we probably need more than the three instances in our immediate neighborhood that are obviously associated with magnetars. So, being able to consistently identify when these events happen in more distant galaxies would be a big win for astronomers. The results could help us develop a template for distinguishing when we’re looking at a giant flare instead of alternative sources of gamma rays.

The researchers also note that this is the second candidate giant flare associated with M82 and, as mentioned above, starburst galaxies would be expected to be relatively rich in magnetars. Focusing searches on it and similar galaxies might be what we need to boost the frequency of our observations.

Nature, 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07285-4  (About DOIs).

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