Science

pass-the-mayo:-condiment-could-help-improve-fusion-energy-yields

Pass the mayo: Condiment could help improve fusion energy yields

condiments, fluid dynamics, hydrodynamics, nuclear fusion, nuclear physics, phase transitions, Physics, Rayleigh-Taylor instability, Science / /

Don’t hold the mayo —

Controlling a problematic instability could lead to cheaper internal fusion.

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A jar of homemade mayonnaise

Inertial confinement fusion is one method for generating energy through nuclear fusion, albeit one plagued by all manner of scientific challenges (although progress is being made). Researchers at LeHigh University are attempting to overcome one specific bugbear with this approach by conducting experiments with mayonnaise placed in a rotating figure-eight contraption. They described their most recent findings in a new paper published in the journal Physical Review E with an eye toward increasing energy yields from fusion.

The work builds on prior research in the LeHigh laboratory of mechanical engineer Arindam Banerjee, who focuses on investigating the dynamics of fluids and other materials in response to extremely high acceleration and centrifugal force. In this case, his team was exploring what’s known as the “instability threshold” of elastic/plastic materials. Scientists have debated whether this comes about because of initial conditions, or whether it’s the result of “more local catastrophic processes,” according to Banerjee. The question is relevant to a variety of fields, including geophysics, astrophysics, explosive welding, and yes, inertial confinement fusion.

How exactly does inertial confinement fusion work? As Chris Lee explained for Ars back in 2016:

The idea behind inertial confinement fusion is simple. To get two atoms to fuse together, you need to bring their nuclei into contact with each other. Both nuclei are positively charged, so they repel each other, which means that force is needed to convince two hydrogen nuclei to touch. In a hydrogen bomb, force is generated when a small fission bomb explodes, compressing a core of hydrogen. This fuses to create heavier elements, releasing a huge amount of energy.

Being killjoys, scientists prefer not to detonate nuclear weapons every time they want to study fusion or use it to generate electricity. Which brings us to inertial confinement fusion. In inertial confinement fusion, the hydrogen core consists of a spherical pellet of hydrogen ice inside a heavy metal casing. The casing is illuminated by powerful lasers, which burn off a large portion of the material. The reaction force from the vaporized material exploding outward causes the remaining shell to implode. The resulting shockwave compresses the center of the core of the hydrogen pellet so that it begins to fuse.

If confinement fusion ended there, the amount of energy released would be tiny. But the energy released due to the initial fusion burn in the center generates enough heat for the hydrogen on the outside of the pellet to reach the required temperature and pressure. So, in the end (at least in computer models), all of the hydrogen is consumed in a fiery death, and massive quantities of energy are released.

That’s the idea anyway. The problem is that hydrodynamic instabilities tend to form in the plasma state—Banerjee likens it to “two materials [that] penetrate one another like fingers” in the presence of gravity or any accelerating field—which in turn reduces energy yields. The technical term is a Rayleigh-Taylor instability, which occurs between two materials of different densities, where the density and pressure gradients move in opposite directions. Mayonnaise turns out to be an excellent analog for investigating this instability in accelerated solids, with no need for a lab setup with high temperature and pressure conditions, because it’s a non-Newtonian fluid.

“We use mayonnaise because it behaves like a solid, but when subjected to a pressure gradient, it starts to flow,” said Banerjee. “As with a traditional molten metal, if you put a stress on mayonnaise, it will start to deform, but if you remove the stress, it goes back to its original shape. So there’s an elastic phase followed by a stable plastic phase. The next phase is when it starts flowing, and that’s where the instability kicks in.”

More mayo, please

2019 video showcasing the rotating wheel Rayleigh Taylor instability experiment at Lehigh University.

His team’s 2019 experiments involved pouring Hellman’s Real Mayonnaise—no Miracle Whip for this crew—into a Plexiglass container and then creating wavelike perturbations in the mayo. One experiment involved placing the container on a rotating wheel in the shape of a figure eight and tracking the material with a high-speed camera, using an image processing algorithm to analyze the footage. Their results supported the claim that the instability threshold is dependent on initial conditions, namely amplitude and wavelength.

This latest paper sheds more light on the structural integrity of fusion capsules used in inertial confinement fusion, taking a closer look at the material properties, the amplitude and wavelength conditions, and the acceleration rate of such materials as they hit the Rayleigh-Taylor instability threshold. The more scientists know about the phase transition from the elastic to the stable phase, the better they can control the conditions and maintain either an elastic or plastic phase, avoiding the instability. Banerjee et al. were able to identify the conditions to maintain the elastic phase, which could inform the design of future pellets for inertial confinement fusion.

That said, the mayonnaise experiments are an analog, orders of magnitude away from the real-world conditions of nuclear fusion, which Banerjee readily acknowledges. He is nonetheless hopeful that future research will improve the predictability of just what happens within the pellets in their high-temperature, high-pressure environments. “We’re another cog in this giant wheel of researchers,” he said. “And we’re all working towards making inertial fusion cheaper and therefore, attainable.”

DOI: Physical Review E, 2024. 10.1103/PhysRevE.109.055103 (About DOIs).

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people-game-ais-via-game-theory

People game AIs via game theory

AI, AI training, Behavioral science, Computer science, Human behavior, Science / /

Games inside games —

They reject more of the AI’s offers, probably to get it to be more generous.

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A judge's gavel near a pile of small change.

Enlarge / In the experiments, people had to judge what constituted a fair monetary offer.

In many cases, AIs are trained on material that’s either made or curated by humans. As a result, it can become a significant challenge to keep the AI from replicating the biases of those humans and the society they belong to. And the stakes are high, given we’re using AIs to make medical and financial decisions.

But some researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have found an additional wrinkle in these challenges: The people doing the training may potentially change their behavior when they know it can influence the future choices made by an AI. And, in at least some cases, they carry the changed behaviors into situations that don’t involve AI training.

Would you like to play a game?

The work involved getting volunteers to participate in a simple form of game theory. Testers gave two participants a pot of money—$10, in this case. One of the two was then asked to offer some fraction of that money to the other, who could choose to accept or reject the offer. If the offer was rejected, nobody got any money.

From a purely rational economic perspective, people should accept anything they’re offered, since they’ll end up with more money than they would have otherwise. But in reality, people tend to reject offers that deviate too much from a 50/50 split, as they have a sense that a highly imbalanced split is unfair. Their rejection allows them to punish the person who made the unfair offer. While there are some cultural differences in terms of where the split becomes unfair, this effect has been replicated many times, including in the current work.

The twist with the new work, performed by Lauren Treimana, Chien-Ju Hoa, and Wouter Kool, is that they told some of the participants that their partner was an AI, and the results of their interactions with it would be fed back into the system to train its future performance.

This takes something that’s implicit in a purely game-theory-focused setup—that rejecting offers can help partners figure out what sorts of offers are fair—and makes it highly explicit. Participants, or at least the subset involved in the experimental group that are being told they’re training an AI, could readily infer that their actions would influence the AI’s future offers.

The question the researchers were curious about was whether this would influence the behavior of the human participants. They compared this to the behavior of a control group who just participated in the standard game theory test.

Training fairness

Treimana, Hoa, and Kool had pre-registered a number of multivariate analyses that they planned to perform with the data. But these didn’t always produce consistent results between experiments, possibly because there weren’t enough participants to tease out relatively subtle effects with any statistical confidence and possibly because the relatively large number of tests would mean that a few positive results would turn up by chance.

So, we’ll focus on the simplest question that was addressed: Did being told that you were training an AI alter someone’s behavior? This question was asked through a number of experiments that were very similar. (One of the key differences between them was whether the information regarding AI training was displayed with a camera icon, since people will sometimes change their behavior if they’re aware they’re being observed.)

The answer to the question is a clear yes: people will in fact change their behavior when they think they’re training an AI. Through a number of experiments, participants were more likely to reject unfair offers if they were told that their sessions would be used to train an AI. In a few of the experiments, they were also more likely to reject what were considered fair offers (in US populations, the rejection rate goes up dramatically once someone proposes a 70/30 split, meaning $7 goes to the person making the proposal in these experiments). The researchers suspect this is due to people being more likely to reject borderline “fair” offers such as a 60/40 split.

This happened even though rejecting any offer exacts an economic cost on the participants. And people persisted in this behavior even when they were told that they wouldn’t ever interact with the AI after training was complete, meaning they wouldn’t personally benefit from any changes in the AI’s behavior. So here, it appeared that people would make a financial sacrifice to train the AI in a way that would benefit others.

Strikingly, in two of the three experiments that did follow up testing, participants continued to reject offers at a higher rate two days after their participation in the AI training, even when they were told that their actions were no longer being used to train the AI. So, to some extent, participating in AI training seems to have caused them to train themselves to behave differently.

Obviously, this won’t affect every sort of AI training, and a lot of the work that goes into producing material that’s used in training something like a Large Language Model won’t have been done with any awareness that it might be used to train an AI. Still, there’s plenty of cases where humans do get more directly involved in training, so it’s worthwhile being aware that this is another route that can allow biases to creep in.

PNAS, 2024. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2408731121  (About DOIs).

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“Archeology” on the ISS helps identify what astronauts really need

Archeology, Science, Space, space archeology, Space exploration, space station / /

Archeology without the dig —

Regular photography shows a tool shed and more isolated toilet would be appreciated.

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I woman holds a handheld device in front of a rack of equipment.

Enlarge / Jessica Watkins gets to work on the ISS

“Archeology really is a perspective on material culture we use as evidence to understand how humans adapt to their environment, to the situations they are in, and to each other. There is no place, no time that is out of bounds,” says Justin Walsh, an archeologist at Chapman University who led the first off-world archeological study on board the ISS.

Walsh’s and his team wanted to understand, document, and preserve the heritage of the astronaut culture at one of the first permanent space habitats. “There is this notion about astronauts that they are high achievers, highly intelligent, and highly trained, that they are not like you and me. What we learned is that they are just people, and they want the comforts of home,” Walsh says.

Disposable cameras and garbage

“In 2008, my student in an archeology class raised her hand and said, ‘What about stuff in space, is that heritage?’ I said, ‘Oh my God, I’ve never thought of this before, but yes,’” Walsh says. “Think of Tranquility base—it’s an archeological site. You could go back there, and you could reconstruct not only the specific activities of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin, but you could understand the engineering culture, the political culture, etc. of the society that created that equipment, sent it to the Moon, and left it there.”

So he conceived the idea of an archeological study on the ISS, wrote a proposal, sent it to NASA, and got rejected. NASA said human sciences were not their priority and not part of their mission. But in 2021, NASA changed its mind.

“They said they had an experiment that could not be done at the scheduled time, so they had to delay it. Also, they changed the crew size from six to seven people,” says Walsh. These opened up some idle time in the astronauts’ schedules, allowing NASA to find space in the schedule for less urgent projects on the station. The agency gave Walsh’s team the go-ahead under the condition that their study could be done with the equipment already present on the ISS.

The outline of Walsh’s research was inspired by and loosely based on the Tucson Garbage Project and the Undocumented Migration Project, two contemporary archeology studies. The first drew conclusions about people’s lives by studying the garbage they threw away. The second documented the experiences of migrants on their way to the US from Mexico.

“Jason De León, who is the principal investigator of this project, gave people in Mexico disposable cameras, and he retrieved those cameras from them when they got to the US. He could observe things they experienced without being there himself. For me, that was a lightbulb moment,” says Walsh.

There were cameras on board the ISS and there was a crew to take pictures with them. To pull off an equivalent of digging a test pit in space, Walsh’s team chose six locations on the station, asked the crew to mark them with squares one meter across, and asked the astronauts to take a picture of each of those squares once a day for 60 days, from January to March 2022.

Building a space shed

In the first paper discussing the study’s results, Walsh’s team covered two out of six chosen locations, dubbed squares 03 and 05. The 03 square was in a maintenance area near the four crew berths where the US crew sleeps. It’s near docking ports for spacecraft coming to the ISS. The square was drawn around a blue board with Velcro patches meant to hold tools and equipment in place.

“All historic photographs of this location published by NASA show somebody working in there—fixing a piece of equipment, doing a science experiment,” says Walsh. But when his team analyzed day-by-day photos of the same spot, the items velcroed to the wall hardly changed in those 60 days. “It was the same set of items over and over again. If there was an activity, it was a scientific experiment. It was supposed to be the maintenance area. So where was the maintenance? And even if it was a science area, where’s the science? It was only happening on 10 percent of days,” Walsh says.

“Archeology” on the ISS helps identify what astronauts really need Read More »

string-of-record-hot-months-came-to-an-end-in-july

String of record hot months came to an end in July

climate change, Earth science, Science, temperature records / /

Hot, but not that hot —

July had the two hottest days recorded but fell 0.04° Celsius short of last year.

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Image of a chart with many dull grey squiggly lines running left to right, with an orange and red line significantly above the rest.

Enlarge / Absolute temperatures show how similar July 2023 and 2024 were.

The past several years have been absolute scorchers, with 2023 being the warmest year ever recorded. And things did not slow down in 2024. As a result, we entered a stretch where every month set a new record as the warmest iteration of that month that we’ve ever recorded. Last month, that pattern stretched out for a full 12 months, as June of 2024 once again became the warmest June ever recorded. But, despite some exceptional temperatures in July, it fell just short of last July’s monthly temperature record, bringing the streak to a close.

Europe’s Copernicus system was first to announce that July of 2024 was ever so slightly cooler than July of 2023, missing out on setting a new record by just 0.04° C. So far, none of the other major climate trackers, such as Berkeley Earth or NASA GISS, have come out with data for July. These each have slightly different approaches to tracking temperatures, and, with a margin that small, it’s possible we’ll see one of them register last month as warmer or statistically indistinguishable.

How exceptional are the temperatures of the last few years? The EU averaged every July from 1991 to 2020—a period well after climate change had warmed the planet significantly—and July of 2024 was still 0.68° C above that average.

While it didn’t set a record, both the EU’s Copernicus climate service and NASA’s GISS found that it contained the warmest day ever recorded. In the EU’s case, they were the two hottest days recorded, as the temperatures on the 21st and 22nd were statistically indistinguishable, with only 0.01° C separating them. Late July and early August tend to be the warmest times of the year for surface air temperatures, so we’re likely past the point where any daily records will be set in 2024.

That’s all in terms of absolute temperatures. If you compare each day of the year only to instances of that day in the past, there have been far more anomalous days in the temperature record.

In terms of anomalies over years past, both 2023 (orange) and 2024 (red) have been exceptionally warm.

Enlarge / In terms of anomalies over years past, both 2023 (orange) and 2024 (red) have been exceptionally warm.

That image also shows how exceptional the past year’s temperatures have been and makes it clear that 2024 is only falling out of record territory because the second half of 2023 was so exceptionally warm. It’s unlikely that 2024 will be quite as extreme, as the El Niño event that helped drive warming appears to have faded after peaking in December of 2023. NOAA’s latest forecast expects that the Pacific will remain in neutral for another month or two before starting to shift into cooler La Niña conditions before the year is out. (This is based on the August 8 ENSO forecast obtained here.)

In terms of anomalies, July also represents the first time in a year that a month had been less than 1.5° C above preindustrial temperatures (with preindustrial defined as the average over 1850–1900). Capping our modern temperatures at 1.5° C above preindustrial levels is recognized as a target that, while difficult to achieve, would help avoid some of the worst impacts we’ll see at 2° C of warming, and a number of countries have committed to that goal.

Listing image by Dmitriy83

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A new report finds Boeing’s rockets are built with an unqualified work force

Science, Space / /

$L$ —

NASA declines to penalize Boeing for the deficiencies.

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EUS panel test weld at the Michoud Assembly Facility on Tuesday, February 9, 2021.

Enlarge / EUS panel test weld at the Michoud Assembly Facility on Tuesday, February 9, 2021.

Michael DeMocker/NASA

The NASA program to develop a new upper stage for the Space Launch System rocket is seven years behind schedule and significantly over budget, a new report from the space agency’s inspector general finds. However, beyond these headline numbers, there is also some eye-opening information about the project’s prime contractor, Boeing, and its poor quality control practices.

The new Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful second stage for the SLS rocket that made its debut in late 2022, is viewed by NASA as a key piece of its Artemis program to return humans to the Moon. The current plan calls for the use of this new upper stage beginning with the second lunar landing, the Artemis IV mission, currently scheduled for 2028. In NASA parlance, the upgraded version of the SLS rocket is known as Block 1B.

However, for many reasons—including the readiness of lunar landers, Lunar Gateway hardware, a new mobile launch tower, and more—NASA is unlikely to hold that date. Now, based on information in this new report, we can probably add the Exploration Upper Stage to the list.

“We found an array of issues that could hinder SLS Block 1B’s readiness for Artemis IV including Boeing’s inadequate quality management system, escalating costs and schedules, and inadequate visibility into the Block 1B’s projected costs,” states the report, signed by NASA’s deputy inspector general, George A. Scott.

Quality control a concern

There are some surprising details in the report about Boeing’s quality control practices at the Michoud Assembly Facility in southern Louisiana, where the Exploration Upper Stage is being manufactured. Federal observers have issued a striking number of “Corrective Action Requests” to Boeing.

“According to Safety and Mission Assurance officials at NASA and DCMA officials at Michoud, Boeing’s quality control issues are largely caused by its workforce having insufficient aerospace production experience,” the report states. “The lack of a trained and qualified workforce increases the risk that the contractor will continue to manufacture parts and components that do not adhere to NASA requirements and industry standards.”

This lack of a qualified workforce has resulted in significant program delays and increased costs. According to the new report, “unsatisfactory” welding operations resulted in propellant tanks that did not meet specifications, which directly led to a seven-month delay in the program.

NASA’s inspector general was concerned enough with quality control to recommend that the space agency institute financial penalties for Boeing’s noncompliance. However, in a response to the report, NASA’s deputy associate administrator, Catherine Koerner, declined to do so. “NASA interprets this recommendation to be directing NASA to institute penalties outside the bounds of the contract,” she replied. “There are already authorities in the contract, such as award fee provisions, which enable financial ramifications for noncompliance with quality control standards.”

The lack of enthusiasm by NASA to penalize Boeing for these issues will not help the perception that the agency treats some of its contractors with kid gloves.

Seven years late

The new report predicts that Block 1B development costs will reach $5.7 billion before it ultimately launches, which is already $700 million more than a cost estimate NASA formally established just last December.

As for the upper stage itself, NASA initially predicted development costs would be $962 million back in 2017. However, the new report predicts that the Exploration Upper Stage will actually cost $2.8 billion, or three times the original cost estimate. (For what it is worth, Ars used a simple estimating tool in 2019 to predict the Exploration Upper Stage development cost would be $2.5 billion. So it’s not like it was a huge secret that NASA and Boeing would blow out the budget here).

The delays in Exploration Upper Stage development are almost year for year.

Enlarge / The delays in Exploration Upper Stage development are almost year for year.

NASA Inspector General

However, the increased costs will benefit Boeing, since this is a cost-plus contract that pays for all of Boeing’s expenses, plus a fee. This may help explain why a development program that was originally supposed to be completed in 2021 is not likely to be finished until 2028 at the earliest.

And what for? The Space Launch System works great as it is. There are far, far cheaper upper stages that could be used for the rocket’s primary function to launch the Orion spacecraft to lunar orbit, including United Launch Alliance’s reliable (and ready) Centaur V upper stage. With Starship and New Glenn, NASA will also soon have two very powerful commercial super heavy lift rockets to draw upon.

A new report finds Boeing’s rockets are built with an unqualified work force Read More »

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31% of Republicans say vaccines are more dangerous than diseases they prevent

CDC, Democrat, health, pandemic, partisan, Republican, Science, vaccines / /

Vaccines save lives —

The partisan divide on vaccine falsehoods threatens the health of children nationwide.

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Polio victim Larry Montoya is at the airport for the arrival of cases of vaccine, which were distributed as part of the KO Polio campaign, September 5, 1962.

Enlarge / Polio victim Larry Montoya is at the airport for the arrival of cases of vaccine, which were distributed as part of the KO Polio campaign, September 5, 1962.

Public sentiment on the importance of safe, lifesaving childhood vaccines has significantly declined in the US since the pandemic—which appears to be solely due to a nosedive in support from people who are Republican or those who lean Republican, according to new polling data from Gallup.

In 2019, 52 percent of Republican-aligned Americans said it was “extremely important” for parents to get their children vaccinated. Now, that figure is 26 percent, falling by half in just five years. In comparison, 63 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners said it was “extremely important” this year, down slightly from 67 percent in 2019.

Overall, only 40 percent of Americans now say it is extremely important for parents to vaccinate their children, down from 58 percent in 2019 and 64 percent in 2001.

More broadly, 93 percent of the Democratic group said it was “extremely” or “very” important for parents to vaccinate their children this year, while only 52 percent of the Republican group said the same.

On the other end of the spectrum, 11 percent of the Republican group said vaccinating children was “not important at all,” and an additional 8 percent said it was “not very important.” For the Democratic group, only 1 percent was reported in each of those categories.

Dangerous disinformation

Perhaps most concerning, the data indicated that a growing number of Americans view vaccines as more dangerous than the diseases they prevent—including polio, measles, tetanus, rotavirus, diphtheria, whooping cough, meningitis, and RSV, among others. Now, 20 percent of Americans overall think vaccines are more of a threat than the dangerous diseases they effectively prevent.

The partisan divide is most stark on this sentiment. In 2019, the two parties were about the same. Twelve percent of the Republican group and 10 percent of the Democratic group held this erroneous belief. But now, a whopping 31 percent of the Republican group say vaccines are a more significant threat than dangerous diseases, while the percentage among the Democratic group fell to 5 percent.

Republicans and Republican leaners are much more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to believe the false and debunked claim that vaccines are linked to autism—19 percent of the Republican group believe this falsehood compared to 4 percent of the Democratic group.

The polling data aligns with national vaccination trends tracked by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. During the pandemic, rates of routine vaccination among kindergartners slipped from the protective target of 95 percent—which prevents infectious diseases from spreading widely—to 93 percent. Additionally, nonmedical exemptions from vaccinations have reached an all-time high of 3 percent nationally. At least 10 states have exemption rates at or above 5 percent, preventing them from reaching the protective target of 95 percent vaccination coverage.

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broadway-embraces-particle-physics-with-musical-about-higgs-boson-discovery

Broadway embraces particle physics with musical about Higgs boson discovery

culture, Higgs boson, Particle Fever, particle physics, Physics, Science, science documentaries / /

Catch the fever —

The 2013 documentary Particle Fever is being turned into a Broadway musical.

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A collision between subatomic particles in the Large Hadron Collider's CMS detector.

A collision between subatomic particles in the Large Hadron Collider’s CMS detector.

Particle physics is poised to hit the bright lights of Broadway with the adaptation into a musical of the 2013 documentary Particle Fever, which charts the journey to detect the Higgs boson at the world’s largest particle accelerator. According to Deadline Hollywood, the creators described their musical as being filled with “heart, humor, and hope,” calling it an “exploration of the very nature of exploration itself… Particle Fever proves that even the very best theories are often no match for reality.”

(Spoiler: Physicists discovered the Higgs boson in 2012.)

Johns Hopkins University’s David Kaplan was a film student turned theoretical physicist when he came up with the idea for a documentary on the search for the Higgs boson—at the time, the last remaining piece of the Standard Model of Particle Physics yet to be detected. The Large Hadron Collider at CERN was designed for that purpose, although the physics community hoped (in vain thus far) to also discover exciting new physics.

Kaplan has said he originally planned to make the film himself, but his Los Angeles-based sister talked him out of it. Mark Levinson (a physicist turned filmmaker) ended up directing, with Oscar winner Walter Murch handling the editing, sifting through nearly 500 hours of footage—including amateur video footage shot by CERN physicists themselves.

Particle Fever.” height=”427″ src=”https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/particle1-640×427.jpg” width=”640″>

Enlarge / Physicist David Kaplan interviews Fabiola Gianotti, head of one of the two teams that found the Higgs Boson at CERN, in a still from Particle Fever.

Anthos Media

The project took seven years to complete and made its debut at various small film festivals before enjoying a limited US release in March 2015. It received critical acclaim, and for fans of popular physics, it was delightful to see working physicists like Monica Dunford—then a post-doc working on the ATLAS experiment, now a professor at Heidelberg University—and Nima Arkani-Hamed of the Institute for Advanced Study front and center, highlighting the give-and-take between experiment and theory as they sought to detect the elusive Higgs boson.

Kaplan and his crew were there in July 2012 when the momentous discovery was announced, capturing the standing ovation for an emotional Peter Higgs. It was physics in action, right down to the theorists’ disappointment that the Higgs mass turned out to be about 125 GeV, consistent with many models predicting new physics.

Still, it’s hardly the first documentary that comes to mind when one thinks “musical.” But ROCO Films CEO Annie Roney, whose company distributed the film, had that vision. “It’s already infused with the elements that make a musical memorable and desirable,” she told The New York Times. “It has universal themes of humankind trying to understand the meaning of our lives and our place in the universe. The story celebrates the best in humanity—collaboration, curiosity.” And while she liked the explanations of the heady physics concepts in the film, “I thought that the bigger concepts can be best communicated by music nonverbally.”

Roney has been working to bring that vision to life ever since, tapping noted Broadway playwright David Henry Hwang (M. Butterfly) to write, with music and lyrics by Bear McCreary (Battlestar Galactica, Rings of Power) and Zoe Sarnak (Galileo: A Rock Musical). Leigh Silverman, who just won a Tony for the Broadway musical Suffs, will direct. There’s no word on when we’ll be seeing Particle Fever: The Musical on Boardway, but the group just held the first private reading: a basement industry-only performance featuring songs about particle physics.

Trailer for Particle Fever.

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china-begins-launching-a-megaconstellation,-and-it-sounds-a-lot-like-starlink

China begins launching a megaconstellation, and it sounds a lot like Starlink

broadband, china, launch, Science, Space, starlink, telecom, thousand sails / /

Sailing in LEO —

Like Starlink, China’s Qianfan satellites have an easy-to-pack flat-panel design.

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A Long March 6A rocket launches the first 18 Internet satellites for China's Qianfan, or Thousand Sails, broadband network.

Enlarge / A Long March 6A rocket launches the first 18 Internet satellites for China’s Qianfan, or Thousand Sails, broadband network.

Chinese officials have long signaled their interest in deploying a satellite network, or maybe several, to beam broadband Internet signals across China and other nations within its sphere of influence.

Two serious efforts are underway in China to develop a rival to SpaceX’s Starlink network, which the Chinese government has banned in its territory. The first batch of 18 satellites for one of those Chinese networks launched into low-Earth orbit Tuesday.

A Long March 6A rocket delivered the 18 spacecraft into a polar orbit following liftoff at 2: 42 am EDT (06: 42 UTC) from the Taiyuan launch base in northern China’s Shanxi province. The Long March 6A is one of China’s newest rockets—and the country’s first to employ strap-on solid rocket boosters—with the ability to deploy a payload of up to 4.5 metric tons (9,900 pounds) into a 700-kilometer (435-mile) Sun-synchronous orbit.

The rocket placed its payload of 18 Qianfan satellites into the proper orbit, and the launch mission was a complete success, according to the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the largest state-owned contractor for the Chinese space program.

Qianfan translates to “Thousand Sails,” and the 18 satellites launched Tuesday are the first of potentially thousands of spacecraft planned by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), a company backed by Shanghai’s municipal government. The network developed by SSST is also called the “Spacesail Constellation.”

Shanghai officials only began releasing details of this constellation last year. A filing with the International Telecommunication Union suggests the developers of Shanghai-based megaconstellation initially plan to deploy 1,296 satellites at an altitude of about 1,160 kilometers (721 miles).

Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, said the constellation “will provide global users with low-latency, high-speed and ultra-reliable satellite broadband Internet services.”

Opening the floodgates?

SSST’s network was previously known as G60 Starlink, referencing a major cross-country highway in China and the project’s intent to imitate SpaceX’s broadband service.

Thousand Sails may eventually consist of more than 14,000 satellites, but like other Internet megaconstellations, the size of the fleet will likely grow at a rate commensurate with demand. It will take many years for SSST to deploy a 14,000-satellite constellation, if it ever does. SpaceX has rolled out several generations of Starlink satellites to offer new services and more capacity to meet customer uptake.

Chinese officials have released few details about the Qianfan satellites. But the project’s backers have said the spacecraft has a “standardized and modular” flat-panel design. “It meets the needs of stacking multiple satellites with one rocket,” said Shanghai Gesi Aerospace Technology, a joint venture set up by SSST and the Chinese Academy of Sciences to oversee manufacturing of Qianfan satellites.

This sounds a lot like the design of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, which are flat-packed for launch on Falcon 9 rockets. SpaceX pioneered this way of launching and deploying large numbers of satellites. The approach used for Starlink, and apparently for Qianfan, streamlines the integration of multiple satellites with their launcher on the ground. It also simplifies their separation from the rocket once in orbit.

The new Qianfan satellite factory in Shanghai can produce up to 300 spacecraft per year, project officials said in December. Officials previously said the first 108 satellites for the Thousand Sails constellation would launch this year.

SSST announced in February it had raised more than $900 million from Chinese state-backed investment funds, Shanghai’s municipal government, and sources of venture capital. SSST’s origin is linked to a Chinese joint venture with a Germany-based company called KLEO Connect, which intended to develop a smaller constellation of low-Earth orbit satellites for data relay services.

China launched four technology demonstration satellites, purportedly related to the KLEO Connect venture, to test telecom hardware and electric propulsion systems in orbit. The joint venture fell apart with a flurry of lawsuits, and the German government last year blocked a complete takeover of KLEO Connect by its Chinese investors.

Now, SSST is going it alone with the Thousand Sails network. It has rapidly scaled up satellite manufacturing capacity in Shanghai. But outside of Starlink, companies with ideas for megaconstellations have run into serious headwinds.

OneWeb filed for bankruptcy in 2020 before eventually launching its entire first-generation network of 633 Internet satellites. Amazon has pushed back the full-scale deployment of its Project Kuiper megaconstellation, and the launch of the first operational Kuiper Internet satellites may be delayed again to 2025. The future of the European Union’s IRIS² satellite Internet network is in doubt after disagreements among European governments on funding the project.

The Thousand Sails constellation is less well-known than another planned Chinese satellite Internet network known as Guowang, or “national network,” which is supported by China’s central government. Guowang is owned by a state-backed company called SatNet, and its architecture will consist of 13,000 satellites. However, China has not yet launched any spacecraft for the Guowang project.

It’s unclear if the Thousand Sails network and the Guowang constellation will be direct competitors. They could be geared to different segments of the broadband market. In either case, China’s restrictive Internet policies with terrestrial networks will likely spill over into the satellite segment.

Chinese officials recognize the military utility of satellite Internet services like Starlink, which has supported Ukrainian military forces fighting Russian troops since 2022. A homegrown Starlink-like service would, no doubt, prove useful for China’s military.

Alongside potential domestic civilian users, China could use its satellite Internet networks as a diplomatic tool to build on existing partnerships between the Chinese government and developing countries. This could “lead to a leapfrogging moment, where African countries opt for the Chinese Internet constellation over Western providers due to the fact that much of their infrastructure is already Chinese-built,” the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think tank, wrote in a report last year.

While there are open questions about how China will use its satellite megaconstellations, their deployment will require a significant increase in the country’s launch capacity, driving the development of new commercial rockets, including reusable boosters, to lower costs and increase their flight rate.

China begins launching a megaconstellation, and it sounds a lot like Starlink Read More »

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After 190 bodies found rotting, funeral home owners ordered to pay $950M

abuse of corpse, covid relief funds, fraud, funeral home, Science / /

Unbelievable —

The owners do not have nearly a billion dollars, so the order is largely symbolic.

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An urn with ashes and a numbered cremation stone that is placed in the coffin of the deceased before the cremation.

Enlarge / An urn with ashes and a numbered cremation stone that is placed in the coffin of the deceased before the cremation.

A Colorado judge has ordered a couple to pay more than $950 million for allegedly giving grieving families urns full of fake ashes and running a bug-infested funeral home facility where 190 improperly stored bodies were found in various states of decay.

The judgment was issued in a civil class-action lawsuit against Jon and Carie Hallford, who owned the Return to Nature Funeral Home in Penrose, Colorado. It is the first high-profile case against the couple to return a ruling.

The bodies and the extent of the couple’s alleged fraud were discovered late last year after area residents reported a putrid stench emanating from the Penrose facility. The discovery sparked a massive investigation that came to include local, state, and federal investigators and responders. The FBI deployed a team of agents trained to respond to mass casualty events, such as airline crashes.

In addition to the class-action suit, the Hallfords face hundreds of state and federal criminal charges over their allegedly fraudulent funeral services. Specifically, the couple faces 286 charges at the state level, including felony charges of abuse of a corpse, theft, money laundering, and forgery, according to the Colorado Springs Gazette.

At the federal level, they face 13 counts of wire fraud and two additional counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. The US Department of Justice alleges that the pair defrauded grieving customers by not providing the cremation and burial services for the deceased as promised, despite collecting more than $130,000 in payments.

“Frustrating”

Further, federal prosecutors also accuse the couple of lying to the US Small Business Administration to obtain nearly $900,000 in COVID relief funds. The false information provided included “misrepresenting the fact that Jon Hallford owed back child support,” the DOJ noted. And the couple allegedly used the ill-gotten business funds to pay for vacations, cosmetic surgery, and jewelry, among other personal expenses, according to unsealed court documents. If convicted on the federal counts, they could both face around seven years in prison.

Last month, the Gazette reported that state authorities offered the Hallfords a plea deal, in which they would plead guilty to 190 counts of abuse of a corpse, Jon would then serve a mandatory sentence of 20 years in prison, and Carie would serve between 15 and 20 years. Affected family members were reportedly upset by the offer, saying they were not informed of the proposed deal ahead of time and did not feel it reflected the egregiousness of the alleged crimes. It’s unclear if the Hallfords have or will take the deal.

As for the nearly $1 billion payout in the class-action case, the judgment is largely symbolic with the expectation that the Hallfords do not have such money.

“I’m never going to get a dime from them, so, I don’t know, it’s a little frustrating,” Crystina Page told the Associated Press. Page paid the Hallfords to cremate her son’s remains in 2019 and received an urn they claimed held his ashes. She carried the urn around the country until his body was discovered in the Penrose location amid the investigation late last year.

On top of the financial disappointment, affected families did not get the opportunity to face the Hallfords in court as they had hoped. Both Hallfords refused to cooperate with the case or show up for hearings.

Jon Hallford is currently in custody pending the outcome of his federal case. Carie Hallford is out on a $100,000 bond.

After 190 bodies found rotting, funeral home owners ordered to pay $950M Read More »

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Indonesia’s tiny hobbits descended from even smaller ancestors

evolution, H. Erectus, H. Florensis, Hobbits, human evolution, paleontology, Science / /

Hobbit erectus? —

A 700,000-year-old humerus suggests small hominins have a long history on Flores.

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Image of a small fossil bone in the palm of a person's hand.

Enlarge / Half of the upper arm bone of this species can fit comfortably in the palm of a modern human hand.

Yousuke Kaifu

The discovery of Homo floresiensis, often termed a hobbit, confused a lot of people. Not only was it tiny in stature, but it shared some features with both Homo erectus and earlier Australopithecus species and lived well after the origin of modern humans. So, its precise position within the hominin family tree has been the subject of ongoing debate—one that hasn’t been clarified by the discovery of the similarly diminutive Homo luzonensis in the Philippines.

Today, researchers are releasing a paper that describes bones from a diminutive hominin that occupied the island of Flores much earlier than the hobbits. And they argue that, while it still shares an odd mix of features, it is most closely related to Homo erectus, the first hominin species to spread across the globe.

Remarkably small

The bones come from a site on Flores called Mata Menge, where the bones were found in a large layer of sediment. Slight wear suggests that many of them were probably brought to the site by a gentle flood. Dating from layers above and below where the fossils were found limits their age to somewhere between 650,000 and 775,000 years ago. Most of the remains are teeth and fragments of jaw bone, which can be suggestive of body size, but not definitive. But the new finds include a fragment of the upper arm bone, the humerus, which is more directly proportional to body size.

The researchers argue that the bone is broken at roughly the mid-point of the humerus, meaning that the full-sized bone was twice its length. Based on the relationship between humerus length and body size, they estimate that the individual it came from was only a bit above a meter tall.

They also took a slice from the center of the sample and imaged the cells present in the bone when it fossilized. These suggest that the fossil came from a fully mature adult. That makes its dimensions, including the diameter of the bone, the smallest yet found. It is, to quote the paper, “smaller than LB1 (H. floresiensis) and any other adult individuals of small-bodied fossil hominins (Australopithecus and H. naledi.” So, even by the standards of small species, the new fossils belong to an extremely small individual.

As for what these individuals are related to, the answers are (once again) complicated. The morphology of the humerus is most closely related to the H. floresiensis individuals who resided on Flores hundreds of thousands of years later. Beyond that, it’s most similar to H. naledi. From there, its shape appears to be equally distant from various species, including both H. erectus and various species of Australopithecus. The teeth show a variety of affinities but are generally closest to members of the Homo genus.

So, the authors make two arguments. One is that the fossils come from the ancestors of the hobbits and belong to the same species, indicating that they inhabited Flores for at least half a million years. The second is that it’s a branch off the population of H. erectus, a species that was similar in stature to modern humans. The population would have evolved a shorter stature once isolated on Flores.

Nothing makes a lot of sense

That’s the argument, at least. There will undoubtedly be different opinions among paleontologists, however. Some had already argued that H. floresiensis was an offshoot of H. erectus and will be happy to accept this as new evidence. But the species is such a hodge-podge of features of earlier and contemporary species that it has been easy for others to make contrary arguments.

Even if those arguments were settled, there’s the issue of how it got there. Even at times of significantly lower sea levels, Flores would have required a significant ocean crossing from what is now Java, where H. erectus is known to have been present, and which was connected to Asia at the time. There’s no indication that any species that came before modern humans had developed boating technology, and some have suggested that the population was established on Flores after being swept there on tsunami debris. Once present, the island environment could have selected for a smaller body size.

But then there’s the issue of Homo luzonensis, which shared a similar body size but inhabited a very different island. That would seem to require a second event that was also unlikely: either a second ocean passage involving individuals from Flores or another ocean trip by H. erectus followed by similar evolution of smaller body size, despite a potentially different environment.

It’s clear that, while the new finds tell us something about the Flores population, they’re not going to settle any arguments.

Nature Communications, 2024. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50649-7  (About DOIs).

Indonesia’s tiny hobbits descended from even smaller ancestors Read More »

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NASA likely to significantly delay the launch of Crew 9 due to Starliner issues

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Boeing's Starliner spacecraft is lifted to be placed atop an Atlas V rocket for its first crewed launch.

Enlarge / Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft is lifted to be placed atop an Atlas V rocket for its first crewed launch.

United Launch Alliance

NASA is planning to significantly delay the launch of the Crew 9 mission to the International Space Station due to ongoing concerns about the Starliner spacecraft currently attached to the station.

While the space agency has not said anything publicly, sources say NASA should announce the decision this week. Officials are contemplating moving the Crew-9 mission from its current date of August 18 to September 24, a significant slip.

Nominally, this Crew Dragon mission will carry NASA astronauts Zena Cardman, spacecraft commander; Nick Hague, pilot; and Stephanie Wilson, mission specialist; as well as Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexander Gorbunov, for a six-month journey to the space station. However, NASA has been considering alternatives to the crew lineup—possibly launching with two astronauts instead of four—due to ongoing discussions about the viability of Starliner to safely return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to Earth.

As of late last week, NASA still had not decided whether the Starliner vehicle, which is built and operated by Boeing, should be used to fly its two crew members home. During its launch and ascent to the space station two months ago, five small thrusters on the Starliner spacecraft failed. After extensive ground testing of the thrusters, as well as some brief in-space firings, NASA had planned to make a decision last week on whether to return Starliner with crew. However, a Flight Readiness Review planned for last Thursday was delayed after internal disagreements at NASA about the safety of Starliner.

At issue is the performance of the small reaction control system thrusters in proximity to the space station. If the right combination of them fail before Starliner has moved sufficiently far from the station, Starliner could become uncontrollable and collide with the space station. The thrusters are also needed later in the flight back to Earth to set up the critical de-orbit burn and entry in Earth’s atmosphere.

Software struggles

NASA has quietly been studying the possibility of crew returning in a Dragon for more than a month. As NASA and Boeing engineers have yet to identify a root cause of the thruster failure, the possibility of Wilmore and Williams returning on a Dragon spacecraft has increased in the last 10 days. NASA has consistently said that ‘crew safety’ will be its No. 1 priority in deciding how to proceed.

The Crew 9 delay is relevant to the Starliner dilemma for a couple of reasons. One, it gives NASA more time to determine the flight-worthiness of Starliner. However, there is also another surprising reason for the delay—the need to update Starliner’s flight software. Three separate, well-placed sources have confirmed to Ars that the current flight software on board Starliner cannot perform an automated undocking from the space station and entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

At first blush, this seems absurd. After all, Boeing’s Orbital Flight Test 2 mission in May 2022 was a fully automated test of the Starliner vehicle. During this mission, the spacecraft flew up to the space station without crew on board and then returned to Earth six days later. Although the 2022 flight test was completed by a different Starliner vehicle, it clearly demonstrated the ability of the program’s flight software to autonomously dock and return to Earth. Boeing did not respond to a media query about why this capability was removed for the crew flight test.

NASA likely to significantly delay the launch of Crew 9 due to Starliner issues Read More »

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Path to precision: Targeted cancer drugs go from table to trials to bedside

cancer, fda, Features, Genetics, Janet Rowley, next generation sequencing, precision medicine, Science, targeted cancer treatments, Tyrosine kinase / /
Path to precision: Targeted cancer drugs go from table to trials to bedside

Aurich Lawson

In 1972, Janet Rowley sat at her dining room table and cut tiny chromosomes from photographs she had taken in her laboratory. One by one, she snipped out the small figures her children teasingly called paper dolls. She then carefully laid them out in 23 matching pairs—and warned her kids not to sneeze.

The physician-scientist had just mastered a new chromosome-staining technique in a year-long sabbatical at Oxford. But it was in the dining room of her Chicago home where she made the discovery that would dramatically alter the course of cancer research.

Rowley's 1973 partial karyotype showing the 9;22 translocation

Enlarge / Rowley’s 1973 partial karyotype showing the 9;22 translocation

Looking over the chromosomes of a patient with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), she realized that segments of chromosomes 8 and 21 had broken off and swapped places—a genetic trade called a translocation. She looked at the chromosomes of other AML patients and saw the same switch: the 8;21 translocation.

Later that same year, she saw another translocation, this time in patients with a different type of blood cancer, called chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Patients with CML were known to carry a puzzling abnormality in chromosome 22 that made it appear shorter than normal. The abnormality was called the Philadelphia chromosome after its discovery by two researchers in Philadelphia in 1959. But it wasn’t until Rowley pored over her meticulously set dining table that it became clear why chromosome 22 was shorter—a chunk of it had broken off and traded places with a small section of chromosome 9, a 9;22 translocation.

Rowley had the first evidence that genetic abnormalities were the cause of cancer. She published her findings in 1973, with the CML translocation published in a single-author study in Nature. In the years that followed, she strongly advocated for the idea that the abnormalities were significant for cancer. But she was initially met with skepticism. At the time, many researchers considered chromosomal abnormalities to be a result of cancer, not the other way around. Rowley’s findings were rejected from the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine. “I got sort of amused tolerance at the beginning,” she said before her death in 2013.

The birth of targeted treatments

But the evidence mounted quickly. In 1977, Rowley and two of her colleagues at the University of Chicago identified another chromosomal translocation—15;17—that causes a rare blood cancer called acute promyelocytic leukemia. By 1990, over 70 translocations had been identified in cancers.

The significance mounted quickly as well. Following Rowley’s discovery of the 9;22 translocation in CML, researchers figured out that the genetic swap creates a fusion of two genes. Part of the ABL gene normally found on chromosome 9 becomes attached to the BCR gene on chromosome 22, creating the cancer-driving BCR::ABL fusion gene on chromosome 22. This genetic merger codes for a signaling protein—a tyrosine kinase—that is permanently stuck in “active” mode. As such, it perpetually triggers signaling pathways that lead white blood cells to grow uncontrollably.

Schematic of the 9;22 translocation and the creation of the BCR::ABL fusion gene.

Enlarge / Schematic of the 9;22 translocation and the creation of the BCR::ABL fusion gene.

By the mid-1990s, researchers had developed a drug that blocks the BCR-ABL protein, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) called imatinib. For patients in the chronic phase of CML—about 90 percent of CML patients—imatinib raised the 10-year survival rate from less than 50 percent to a little over 80 percent. Imatinib (sold as Gleevec or Glivec) earned approval from the Food and Drug Administration in 2001, marking the first approval for a cancer therapy targeting a known genetic alteration.

With imatinib’s success, targeted cancer therapies—aka precision medicine—took off. By the early 2000s, there was widespread interest among researchers to precisely identify the genetic underpinnings of cancer. At the same time, the revolutionary development of next-generation genetic sequencing acted like jet fuel for the soaring field. The technology eased the identification of mutations and genetic abnormalities driving cancers. Sequencing is now considered standard care in the diagnosis, treatment, and management of many cancers.

The development of gene-targeting cancer therapies skyrocketed. Classes of TKIs, like imatinib, expanded particularly fast. There are now over 50 FDA-approved TKIs targeting a wide variety of cancers. For instance, the TKIs lapatinib, neratinib, tucatinib, and pyrotinib target human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), which runs amok in some breast and gastric cancers. The TKI ruxolitinib targets Janus kinase 2, which is often mutated in the rare blood cancer myelofibrosis and the slow-growing blood cancer polycythemia vera. CML patients, meanwhile, now have five TKI therapies to choose from.

Path to precision: Targeted cancer drugs go from table to trials to bedside Read More »