Science – Page 17

What do planet formation and badminton have in common?

astronomy, astrophysics, badminton, dust, planet-forming disk, planetary formation, protoplanetary disks, Science / Mike M. / October 15, 2024

It might not come as a surprise to learn that Lin is a badminton player. “The experience of playing badminton is really the thing that kick-started the idea and led me to ask the right questions,” he said.

Previous explanations attribute the dust alignment to the magnetic influence of the central star, the physics of which can be complicated and not always intuitive. The beauty of the proposed birdie mechanism is its simplicity. “It’s a very good first step,” said Bing Ren, an astronomer at France’s Côte d’Azur Observatory who wasn’t involved in the study.

Still, the birdie-alignment hypothesis is just that—a hypothesis. To confirm whether it holds water, scientists will need to throw their full observational arsenal at protoplanetary disks, such as viewing them at different wavelengths, to sniff out the finer details of particle-gas interactions.

Tracing invisible gas

Real-life protoplanetary disks are likely more complicated than a uniform squadron of space potatoes suspended in thin air. Ren suspects that the grains come in various shapes, sizes, and speeds. Nevertheless, he says Lin’s study is a good foundation for computer models of interstellar clouds, onto which scientists can tack layers of complexity.

The new research points a way forward for probing protoplanetary disks, particularly gas behavior. Given that the grains trace the gas direction, studying dust organization using existing tools like polarized light can allow scientists to map a disk’s aerodynamic flow. Essentially, these grains are tiny flags that signal where the wind blows.

As granular as the details are, the dust alignment is a small but key step in a grand journey of particle-to-planet progression. The nitty-gritty of a particle’s conduct will determine its fate for millions of years—perhaps the primordial seed will hoover up hydrogen and helium to become a gas giant or amass dust to transform into a terrestrial world like Earth. It all starts with it flailing or keeping steady amid a sea of other specks.

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2024. DOI: 10.1093/mnras/stae2248 (About DOIs)

Shi En Kim is a DC-based freelance journalist who writes about health, the environment, technology, and the physical sciences. She and three other journalists founded Sequencer Magazine in early 2024. Occasionally, she creates art to accompany her writings or does it simply for fun. Follow her on Twitter at @goes_by_kim, or see more of her work on her personal website.

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Routine dental X-rays are not backed by evidence—experts want it to stop

bitewings, cavities, dentistry, dentists, health, radiation, Science, X-rays / Rejus Almole / October 14, 2024

The actual recommendations might surprise you—along with the state of modern dentistry.

An expert looking at a dental X-ray and saying “look at that unnecessary X-ray,” probably. Credit: Getty | MilanEXPO

Has your dentist ever told you that it’s recommended to get routine dental X-rays every year? My (former) dentist’s office did this year—in writing, even. And they claimed that the recommendation came from the American Dental Association.

It’s a common refrain from dentists, but it’s false. The American Dental Association does not recommend annual routine X-rays. And this is not new; it’s been that way for well over a decade.

The association’s guidelines from 2012 recommended that adults who don’t have an increased risk of dental caries (myself included) need only bitewing X-rays of the back teeth every two to three years. Even people with a higher risk of caries can go as long as 18 months between bitewings. The guidelines also note that X-rays should not be preemptively used to look for problems: “Radiographic screening for the purpose of detecting disease before clinical examination should not be performed,” the guidelines read. In other words, dentists are supposed to examine your teeth before they take any X-rays.

But, of course, the 2012 guidelines are outdated—the latest ones go further. In updated guidance published in April, the ADA doesn’t recommend any specific time window for X-rays at all. Rather, it emphasizes that patient exposure to X-rays should be minimized, and any X-rays should be clinically justified.

There’s a good chance you’re surprised. Dentistry’s overuse of X-rays is a problem dentists do not appear eager to discuss—and would likely prefer to skirt. My former dentist declined to comment for this article, for example. And other dentists have been doing that for years. Nevertheless, the problem is well-established. A New York Times article from 2016, titled “You Probably Don’t Need Dental X-Rays Every Year,” quoted a dental expert noting the exact problem:

“Many patients of all ages receive bitewing X-rays far more frequently than necessary or recommended. And adults in good dental health can go a decade between full-mouth X-rays.”

Data is lacking

The problem has bubbled up again in a series of commentary pieces published in JAMA Internal Medicine today. The pieces were all sparked by a viewpoint that Ars reported on in May, in which three dental and health experts highlighted that many routine aspects of dentistry, including biannual cleanings, are not evidence-based and that the industry is rife with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. That viewpoint, titled “Too Much Dentistry,” also appeared in JAMA Internal Medicine.

The new pieces take a more specific aim at dental radiography. But, as in the May viewpoint, experts also blasted dentistry more generally for being out of step with modern medicine in its lack of data to support its practices—practices that continue amid financial incentives to overtreat and little oversight to stop it, they note.

In a piece titled “Too Much Dental Radiography,” Sheila Feit, a retired medical expert based in New York, pointed out that using X-rays for dental screenings is not backed by evidence. “Data are lacking about outcomes,” she wrote. If anything, the weak data we have makes it look ineffective. For instance, a 2021 systemic review of 77 studies that included data on a total of 15,518 tooth sites or surfaces found that using X-rays to detect early tooth decay led to a high degree of false-negative results. In other words, it led to missed cases.

Feit called for gold-standard randomized clinical trials to evaluate the risks and benefits of X-ray screenings for patients, particularly adults at low risk of caries. “Financial aspects of dental radiography also deserve further study,” Feit added. Overall, Feit called the May viewpoint “a timely call for evidence to support or refute common clinical dental practices.”

Dentistry without oversight

In a response published simultaneously in JAMA Internal Medicine, oral medicine expert Yehuda Zadik championed Feit’s point, calling it “an essential discussion about the necessity and risks of routine dental radiography, emphasizing once again the need for evidence-based dental care.”

Zadik, a professor of dental medicine at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, noted that the overuse of radiography in dentistry is a global problem, one aided by dentistry’s unique delivery:

“Dentistry is among the few remaining health care professions where clinical examination, diagnostic testing including radiographs, diagnosis, treatment planning, and treatment are all performed in place, often by the same care practitioner” Zadik wrote. “This model of care delivery prevents external oversight of the entire process.”

While routine X-rays continue at short intervals, Zadik notes that current data “favor the reduction of patient exposure to diagnostic radiation in dentistry,” while advancements in dentistry dictate that X-rays should be used at “longer intervals and based on clinical suspicion.”

Though the digital dental X-rays often used today provide smaller doses of radiation than the film X-rays used in the past, radiation’s harms are cumulative. Zadik emphasizes that with the primary tenet of medicine being “First, do no harm,” any unnecessary X-ray is an unnecessary harm. Further, other technology can sometimes be used instead of radiography, including electronic apex locators for root canal procedures.

“Just as it is now unimaginable that, in the past, shoe fittings for children were conducted using X-rays, in the future it will be equally astonishing to learn that the fit of dental crowns was assessed using radiographic imaging,” Zadik wrote.

X-rays do more harm than good in children

Feit’s commentary also prompted a reply from the three authors of the original May viewpoint: Paulo Nadanovsky, Ana Paula Pires dos Santos, and David Nunan. The three followed up on Feit’s point that data is weak on whether X-rays are useful for detecting early decay, specifically white spot lesions. The experts raise the damning point that even if dental X-rays were shown to be good at doing that, there’s still no evidence that that’s good for patients.

“[T]here is no evidence that detecting white spot lesions, with or without radiographs, benefits patients,” the researchers wrote. “Most of these lesions do not progress into dentine cavities,” and there’s no evidence that early treatments make a difference in the long run.

To bolster the point, the three note that data from children suggest that X-ray screening does more harm than good. In a randomized clinical trial published in 2021, 216 preschool children were split into two groups: one that received only a visual-tactile dental exam, while the others received both a visual-tactile exam and X-rays. The study found that adding X-rays caused more harm than benefit because the X-rays led to false positives and overdiagnosis of cavitated caries needing restorative treatment. The authors of the trial concluded that “visual inspection should be conducted alone in regular clinical practice.”

Like Zadik, the three researchers note that screenings for decay and cavities are not the only questionable use of X-rays in dental practice. Other common dental and orthodontic treatments involving radiography—practices often used in children and teens—might also be unnecessary harms. They raise the argument against the preventive removal of wisdom teeth, which is also not backed by evidence.

Like Feit, the three researchers reiterate the call for well-designed trials to back up or refute common dental practices.

Beth is Ars Technica’s Senior Health Reporter. Beth has a Ph.D. in microbiology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and attended the Science Communication program at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She specializes in covering infectious diseases, public health, and microbes.

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People think they already know everything they need to make decisions

belief formation, cognitive biases, Human behavior, misinformation, Science / Rejus Almole / October 14, 2024

The obvious difference was the decisions they made. In the group that had read the article biased in favor of merging the schools, nearly 90 percent favored the merger. In the group that had read the article that was biased by including only information in favor of keeping the schools separate, less than a quarter favored the merger.

The other half of the experimental population wasn’t given the survey immediately. Instead, they were given the article that they hadn’t read—the one that favored the opposite position of the article that they were initially given. You can view this group as doing the same reading as the control group, just doing so successively rather than in a single go. In any case, this group’s responses looked a lot like the control’s, with people roughly evenly split between merger and separation. And they became less confident in their decision.

It’s not too late to change your mind

There is one bit of good news about this. When initially forming hypotheses about the behavior they expected to see, Gehlbach, Robinson, and Fletcher suggested that people would remain committed to their initial opinions even after being exposed to a more complete picture. However, there was no evidence of this sort of stubbornness in these experiments. Instead, once people were given all the potential pros and cons of the options, they acted as if they had that information the whole time.

But that shouldn’t obscure the fact that there’s a strong cognitive bias at play here. “Because people assume they have adequate information, they enter judgment and decision-making processes with less humility and more confidence than they might if they were worrying whether they knew the whole story or not,” Gehlbach, Robinson, and Fletcher.

This is especially problematic in the current media environment. Many outlets have been created with the clear intent of exposing their viewers to only a partial view of the facts—or, in a number of cases, the apparent intent of spreading misinformation. The new work clearly indicates that these efforts can have a powerful effect on beliefs, even if accurate information is available from various sources.

PLOS ONE, 2024. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310216 (About DOIs).

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Can walls of oysters protect shores against hurricanes? Darpa wants to know.

climate change, coastal erosion, hurricanes, Science, sea level, syndication / Tim Belzer / October 13, 2024

Colonized artificial reef structures could absorb the power of storms.

picture of some shoreline

Credit: Kemter/Getty Images

On October 10, 2018, Tyndall Air Force Base on the Gulf of Mexico—a pillar of American air superiority—found itself under aerial attack. Hurricane Michael, first spotted as a Category 2 storm off the Florida coast, unexpectedly hulked up to a Category 5. Sustained winds of 155 miles per hour whipped into the base, flinging power poles, flipping F-22s, and totaling more than 200 buildings. The sole saving grace: Despite sitting on a peninsula, Tyndall avoided flood damage. Michael’s 9- to 14-foot storm surge swamped other parts of Florida. Tyndall’s main defense was luck.

That $5 billion disaster at Tyndall was just one of a mounting number of extreme-weather events that convinced the US Department of Defense that it needed new ideas to protect the 1,700 coastal bases it’s responsible for globally. As hurricanes Helene and Milton have just shown, beachfront residents face compounding threats from climate change, and the Pentagon is no exception. Rising oceans are chewing away the shore. Stronger storms are more capable of flooding land.

In response, Tyndall will later this month test a new way to protect shorelines from intensified waves and storm surges: a prototype artificial reef, designed by a team led by Rutgers University scientists. The 50-meter-wide array, made up of three chevron-shaped structures each weighing about 46,000 pounds, can take 70 percent of the oomph out of waves, according to tests. But this isn’t your grandaddy’s seawall. It’s specifically designed to be colonized by oysters, some of nature’s most effective wave-killers.

If researchers can optimize these creatures to work in tandem with new artificial structures placed at sea, they believe the resulting barriers can take 90 percent of the energy out of waves. David Bushek, who directs the Haskin Shellfish Research Laboratory at Rutgers, swears he’s not hoping for a megastorm to come and show what his team’s unit is made of. But he’s not not hoping for one. “Models are always imperfect. They’re always a replica of something,” he says. “They’re not the real thing.”

Playing defense Reefense

The project is one of three being developed under a $67.6 million program launched by the US government’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa. Cheekily called Reefense, the initiative is the Pentagon’s effort to test if “hybrid” reefs, combining manmade structures with oysters or corals, can perform as well as a good ol’ seawall. Darpa chose three research teams, all led by US universities, in 2022. After two years of intensive research and development, their prototypes are starting to go into the water, with Rutgers’ first up.

Today, the Pentagon protects its coastal assets much as civilians do: by hardening them. Common approaches involve armoring the shore with retaining walls or arranging heavy objects, like rocks or concrete blocks, in long rows. But hardscape structures come with tradeoffs. They deflect rather than absorb wave energy, so protecting one’s own shoreline means exposing someone else’s. They’re also static: As sea levels rise and storms get stronger, it’s getting easier for water to surmount these structures. This wears them down faster and demands constant, expensive repairs.

In recent decades, a new idea has emerged: using nature as infrastructure. Restoring coastal habitats like marshes and mangroves, it turns out, helps hold off waves and storms. “Instead of armoring, you’re using nature’s natural capacity to absorb wave energy,” says Donna Marie Bilkovic, a professor at the Virginia Institute for Marine Science. Darpa is particularly interested in two creatures whose numbers have been decimated by humans but which are terrific wave-breakers when allowed to thrive: oysters and corals.

Oysters are effective wave-killers because of how they grow. The bivalves pile onto each other in large, sturdy mounds. The resulting structure, unlike a smooth seawall, is replete with nooks, crannies, and convolutions. When a wave strikes, its energy gets diffused into these gaps, and further spent on the jagged, complex surfaces of the oysters. Also unlike a seawall, an oyster wall can grow. Oysters have been shown to be capable of building vertically at a rate that matches sea-level rise—which suggests they’ll retain some protective value against higher tides and stronger storms.

Today hundreds of human-tended oyster reefs, particularly on America’s Atlantic coast, use these principles to protect the shore. They take diverse approaches; some look much like natural reefs, while others have an artificial component. Some cultivate oysters for food, with coastal protection a nice co-benefit; others are built specifically to preserve shorelines. What’s missing amid all this experimentation, says Bilkovic, is systematic performance data—the kind that could validate which approaches are most effective and cost-effective. “Right now the innovation is outpacing the science,” she says. “We need to have some type of systematic monitoring of projects, so we can better understand where the techniques work the best. There just isn’t funding, frankly.”

Hybrid deployments

Rather than wait for the data needed to engineer the perfect reef, Darpa wants to rapidly innovate them through a burst of R&D. Reefense has given awardees five years to deploy hybrid reefs that take up to 90 percent of the energy out of waves, without costing significantly more than traditional solutions. The manmade component should block waves immediately. But it should be quickly enhanced by organisms that build, in months or years, a living structure that would take nature decades.

The Rutgers team has built its prototype out of 788 interlocked concrete modules, each 2 feet wide and ranging in height from 1 to 2 feet tall. They have a scalloped appearance, with shelves jutting in all directions. Internally, all these shelves are connected by holes.

A Darpa-funded team will install sea barriers, made of hundreds of concrete modules, near a Florida military base. The scalloped shape should not only dissipate wave energy but invite oysters to build their own structures.

What this means is that when a wave strikes this structure, it smashes into the internal geometry, swirls around, and exits with less energy. This effect alone weakens the wave by 70 percent, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers, which tested a scale model in a wave simulator in Mississippi. But the effect should only improve as oysters colonize the structure. Bushek and his team have tried to design the shelves with the right hardness, texture, and shading to entice them.

But the reef’s value would be diminished if, say, disease were to wipe the mollusks out. This is why Darpa has tasked Rutgers with also engineering oysters resistant to dermo, a protozoan that’s dogged Atlantic oysters for decades. Darpa prohibited them using genetic-modification techniques. But thanks to recent advances in genomics, the Rutgers team can rapidly identify individual oysters with disease-resistant traits. It exposes these oysters to dermo in a lab, and crossbreeds the survivors, producing hardier mollusks. Traditionally it takes about three years to breed a generation of oysters for better disease resistance; Bushek says his team has done it in one.

The tropics are a different story

Oysters may suit the DoD’s needs in temperate waters, but for bases in tropical climates, it’s coral that builds the best seawalls. Hawaii, for instance, enjoys the protection of “fringing” coral reefs that extend offshore for hundreds of yards in a gentle slope along the seabed. The colossal, complex, and porous character of this surface exhausts wave energy over long distances, says Ben Jones, an oceanographer for the Applied Research Laboratory at the University of Hawaii—and head of the university’s Reefense project. He said it’s not unusual to see ocean swells of 6 to 8 feet way offshore, while the water at the seashore laps gently.

A Marine base in Hawaii will test out a new approach to coastal protection inspired by local coral reefs: A forward barrier will take the first blows of the waves, and a scattering of pyramids will further weaken waves before they get to shore.

Inspired by this effect, Jones and a team of researchers are designing an array that they’ll deploy near a US Marine Corps base in Oahu whose shoreline is rapidly receding. While the final design isn’t set yet, the broad strokes are: It will feature two 50-meter-wide barriers laid in rows, backed by 20 pyramid-like obstacles. All of these are hollow, thin-walled structures with sloping profiles and lots of big holes. Waves that crash into them will lose energy by crawling up the sides, but two design aspects of the structure—the width of the holes and the thinness of the walls—will generate turbulence in the water, causing it to spin off more energy as heat.

The manmade structures in Hawaii will be studded with concrete domes meant to encourage coral colonization. Though at grave risk from global warming, coral reefs are thought to provide coastal-protection benefits worth billions of dollars.

In the team’s full vision, the units are bolstered by about a thousand small coral colonies. Jones’ group plans to cover the structures with concrete modules that are about 20 inches in diameter. These have grooves and crevices that offer perfect shelters for coral larvae. The team will initially implant them with lab-bred coral. But they’re also experimenting with enticements, like light and sound, that help attract coral larvae from the wild—the better to build a wall that nature, not the Pentagon, will tend.

A third Reefense team, led by scientists at the University of Miami, takes its inspiration from a different sort of coral. Its design has a three-tiered structure. The foundation is made of long, hexagonal logs punctured with large holes; atop it is a dense layer with smaller holes—“imagine a sponge made of concrete,” says Andrew Baker, director of the university’s Coral Reef Futures Lab and the Reefense team lead.

The team thinks these artificial components will soak up plenty of wave energy—but it’s a crest of elkhorn coral at the top that will finish the job. Native to Florida, the Bahamas, and the Caribbean, elkhorn like to build dense reefs in shallow-water areas with high-intensity waves. They don’t mind getting whacked by water because it helps them harvest food; this whacking keeps wave energy from getting to shore.

Disease has ravaged Florida’s elkhorn populations in recent decades, and now ocean heat waves are dealing further damage. But their critical condition has also motivated policymakers to pursue options to save this iconic state species—including Baker’s, which is to develop an elkhorn more rugged against disease, higher temperatures, and nastier waves. Under Reefense, Baker says, his lab has developed elkhorn with 1.5° to 2° Celsius more heat tolerance than their ancestors. They also claim to have boosted the heat thresholds of symbiotic algae—an existentially important occupant of any healthy reef—and cross-bred local elkhorn with those from Honduras, where reefs have mysteriously withstood scorching waters.

An unexpected permitting issue, though, will force the Miami team to exit Reefense in 2025, without building the test unit it hoped to deploy near a Florida naval base. The federal permitting authority wanted a pot of money set aside to uninstall the structure if needed; Darpa felt it couldn’t do that in a timely way, according to Baker. (Darpa told WIRED every Reefense project has unique permitting challenges, so the Miami team’s fate doesn’t necessarily speak to anything broader. Representatives for the other two Reefense projects said Baker’s issue hasn’t come up for them.)

Though his team’s work with Reefense is coming to a premature end, Baker says, he’s confident their innovations will get deployed elsewhere. He’s been working with Key Biscayne, an island village near Miami whose shorelines have been chewed up by storms. Roland Samimy, the village’s chief resilience and sustainability officer, says they spend millions of dollars every few years importing sand for their rapidly receding beaches. He’s eager to see if a hybrid structure, like the University of Miami design, could offer protection at far lower cost. “People are realizing their manmade structures aren’t as resilient as nature is,” he says.

Not just Darpa

By no means is Darpa the only one experimenting in these areas. Around the world, there are efforts tackling various pieces of the puzzle, like breeding coral for greater heat resistance, or combining coral and oysters with artificial reefs, or designing low-carbon concrete that makes building these structures less environmentally damaging. Bilkovic, of the Virginia Institute for Marine Science, says Reefense will be a success if it demonstrates better ways of doing things than the prevailing methods—and has the data to back this up. “I’m looking forward to seeing what their findings are,” she says. “They’re systematically assessing the effectiveness of the project. Those lessons learned can be translated to other areas, and if the techniques are effective and work well, they can easily be translated to other regions.”

As for Darpa, though the Reefense prototypes are just starting to go in the water, the work is just beginning. All of these first-generation units will be scrutinized—both by the research teams and independent government auditors—to see whether their real-world performance matches what was in the models. Reefense is scheduled to conclude with a final report to the DoD in 2027. It won’t have a “winner” per se; as the Pentagon has bases around the world, it’s likely these three projects will all produce learnings that are relevant elsewhere.

Although their client has the largest military budget in the world, the three Reefense teams have been asked to keep an eye on the economics. Darpa has asked that project costs “not greatly exceed” those of conventional solutions, and tasked government monitors with checking the teams’ math. Catherine Campbell, Reefense’s program manager at Darpa, says affordability doesn’t just make it more likely the Pentagon will employ the technology—but that civilians can, too.

“This isn’t something bespoke for the military… we need to be in line with those kinds of cost metrics [in the civilian sector],” Campbell said in an email. “And that gives it potential for commercialization.”

This story originally appeared on wired.com.

Wired.com is your essential daily guide to what’s next, delivering the most original and complete take you’ll find anywhere on innovation’s impact on technology, science, business and culture.

Can walls of oysters protect shores against hurricanes? Darpa wants to know. Read More »

Starship is about to launch on its fifth flight, and this time there’s a catch

Commercial space, launch, Science, Space, spacex, Starbase, starship, texas / Paul Patrick / October 13, 2024

“We landed with half a centimeter accuracy in the ocean, so we think we have a reasonable chance to come back to the tower,” Gerstenmaier said.

Launch playbook

The Starship upper stage, meanwhile, will light six Raptor engines to accelerate to nearly orbital velocity, giving the rocket enough oomph to coast halfway around the world before falling back into the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean.

This is a similar trajectory to the one Starship flew in June, when it survived a fiery reentry for a controlled splashdown. It was the first time SpaceX completed an end-to-end Starship test flight. Onboard cameras showed fragments of the heat shield falling off Starship when it reentered the atmosphere, but the vehicle maintained control and reignited its Raptor engines, flipped from a horizontal to a vertical orientation, and settled into the Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.

After analyzing the results from the June mission, SpaceX engineers decided to rework the heat shield for the next Starship vehicle. The company said its technicians spent more than 12,000 hours replacing the entire thermal protection system with new-generation tiles, a backup ablative layer, and additional protections between the ship’s flap structures.

From start to finish, Sunday’s test flight should last approximately 1 hour and 5 minutes.

This diagram illustrates the path the Super Heavy booster will take to return to the launch pad in Texas, while the Starship upper stage continues the climb to space. Credit: SpaceX

Here’s an overview of the key events during Sunday’s flight:

• T+00: 00: 02: Liftoff

• T+00: 01: 02: Maximum aerodynamic pressure

• T+00: 02: 33: Super Heavy MECO (most engines cut off)

• T+00: 02: 41: Stage separation and ignition of Starship engines

• T+00: 02: 48: Super Heavy boost-back burn start

• T+00: 03: 41: Super Heavy boost-back burn shutdown

• T+00: 03: 43: Hot staging ring jettison

• T+00: 06: 08: Super Heavy is subsonic

• T+00: 06: 33: Super Heavy landing burn start

• T+00: 06: 56: Super Heavy landing burn shutdown and catch attempt

• T+00: 08: 27: Starship engine cutoff

• T+00: 48: 03: Starship reentry

• T+01: 02: 34: Starship is transonic

• T+01: 03: 43: Starship is subsonic

• T+01: 05: 15: Starship landing flip

• T+01: 05: 20: Starship landing burn

• T+01: 05: 34: Starship splashdown in Indian Ocean

SpaceX officials hope to see Starship’s heat shield stay intact as it dips into the atmosphere, when temperatures will reach 2,600° Fahrenheit (1,430° Celsius), hot enough to melt aluminum, the metal used to build many launch vehicles. SpaceX chose stainless steel for Starship because it strong at cryogenic temperatures—the rocket consumes super-cold fuel and oxidizer—and has a higher melting point than aluminum.

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Why a diabetes drug fell short of anticancer hopes

cancer treatment, experimental drugs, health, metformin, pharmaceutical research, Science, syndication / Tim Belzer / October 12, 2024

Studies suggested it could treat cancer, but the clinical trials were a bust.

Multi-pipettes

Pamela Goodwin has received hundreds of emails from patients asking if they should take a cheap, readily available drug, metformin, to treat their cancer.

It’s a fair question: Metformin, commonly used to treat diabetes, has been investigated for treating a range of cancer types in thousands of studies on laboratory cells, animals, and people. But Goodwin, an epidemiologist and medical oncologist treating breast cancer at the University of Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital, advises against it. No gold-standard trials have proved that metformin helps treat breast cancer—and her recent research suggests it doesn’t.

Metformin’s development was inspired by centuries of use of French lilac, or goat’s rue (Galega officinalis), for diabetes-like symptoms. In 1918, researchers discovered that a compound from the herb lowers blood sugar. Metformin, a chemical relative of that compound, has been a top type 2 diabetes treatment in the United States since it was approved in 1994. It’s cheap—less than a dollar per dose—and readily available, with few side effects. Today, more than 150 million people worldwide take the stuff.

Illustration of French lilac plant. — The French lilac, *Galega officinalis*, has been used medicinally since medieval times, including for symptoms associated with diabetes. Investigations of the plant’s chemical galegine led to the development of metformin, a related molecule synthesized in the lab. Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Metformin has a variety of effects, such as improving immune function and the body’s responses to insulin, which in turn regulates blood sugar. It can also slow growth of cancer cells in the lab. Many of these benefits seem to stem from metformin’s action in the cell’s powerhouses, the mitochondria, where it slows the production of energy and limits the generation of damaging chemicals called free radicals.

Researchers have considered metformin for treating a plethora of conditions, from glaucoma to polycystic ovary syndrome to pimples. “It really has a reputation of being a potential wonder drug,” says Michael Pollak, an oncologist and researcher at McGill University in Montreal. “There’s still a lot of work to be done on metformin.” (Pollak consults for biotechnology companies interested in metformin analogs as medicines.)

But the latest research has convinced Pollak and some others that treatment of cancers should be taken off the list.

More studies, but no proof

One of the first hints linking metformin to anticancer effects came in a short note in the British Medical Journal in 2005. Researchers analyzed medical records of almost 12,000 people from the Tayside region of Scotland who were newly diagnosed with diabetes between 1993 and 2001. Of those, more than 900 went on to develop cancer. Interestingly, those who’d taken metformin at some point during the study period were 23 percent less likely to have received a later cancer diagnosis.

This finding fueled further research on people with diabetes taking metformin and the risk for breast cancer, liver cancer, ovarian and endometrial cancer, and other types. The authors of a 2013 analysis, covering more than 1 million patients in 41 observational studies like the original one, concluded that metformin “might be associated with a significant reduction in the risk of cancer.” But such associations are not proof.

Researchers went on to explore the link in studies with cells in dishes and in lab animals, finding that metformin slowed growth of blood, breast, endometrial, lung, liver, stomach, and thyroid cancer cells. It also seemed to make cancer cells extra sensitive to chemotherapy drugs. In one mouse study, scientists grafted human breast, prostate, or lung cancer cells into the animals and treated them with either standard chemotherapy drugs, metformin, or a combination of both. The combination worked best, preventing tumor growth and prolonging relapse.

These findings made sense to researchers. Metformin treats metabolic problems in diabetes, and cancer has also been linked to metabolic issues such as obesity. Even before the 2005 British Medical Journal study, Goodwin had noticed that breast cancer patients with high insulin did worse than those with normal insulin levels.

That logic, plus the promising data, led scientists to conduct a number of randomized controlled trials—the gold-standard experiment in medicine. Researchers would enroll people with cancer and split them into two groups. One group would get standard cancer therapy plus metformin; the other group would get standard therapy plus a placebo, a pill containing no medication.

And metformin flopped, big time. While a number of studies are ongoing, trials for two types of cancer recently reported no benefit overall from metformin. In June 2024, at the American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting in Chicago, researchers reported a Canadian trial with 407 men with low-risk prostate cancer. The enrollees had been diagnosed within six months before starting the trial and had decided to monitor their cancer without starting immediate treatment. Half took metformin and half took a placebo. After biopsies at 18 and 36 months to test whether their disease had progressed, there was no difference between the two groups.

A larger British and Swiss trial including nearly 1,900 patients with newly diagnosed or relapsed prostate cancer that had spread to other body parts was reported at the European Society for Medical Oncology Congress in Barcelona, Spain, in September. This trial also found that metformin plus standard treatment, compared to standard treatment alone, did not improve overall prostate cancer survival in the study population.

A multinational study of breast cancer helmed by Goodwin also led to disappointment. The researchers enrolled more than 3,600 patients between 2010 and 2013; these patients had been diagnosed about a year before enrollment and had already undergone chemotherapy and surgery. In addition to standard cancer treatment, half received metformin and half received a placebo.

By 2016, it was clear that metformin wasn’t doing anything to enhance survival for about 1,100 participants with a particular cancer subtype. When the study wrapped in 2020, the researchers analyzed the rest of the patients, counting how many were alive and free of breast or any other form of cancer. Metformin made no difference in those results, or to survival overall, the team reported in 2022.

Fatal flaws in the research

In retrospect, researchers think they know why earlier studies oversold metformin’s potential. Many of the studies that examined medical records had a crucial flaw, says Samy Suissa, a pharmacoepidemiologist at McGill.

Here’s what happens: Researchers sift through old medical records to see if someone ever took metformin. Then they compare cancer rates among people who took the drug at any point to those who never took it. But you have to be alive to take metformin. Anyone who died, of cancer or other causes, before having a chance at a metformin prescription is left out of the calculations. This skews the results; it’s called the “immortal time bias.” It makes any drug, metformin or otherwise, look like it helps patients to survive because it can only be taken by people who are alive, says Suissa.

Plus, scientists are more likely to publish studies that show metformin is promising than ones where it makes no difference, skewing the scientific literature.

As for those studies of cells in dishes and of lab animals, many experiments used much higher doses of metformin than are used in people. Too much metformin risks a buildup of lactate, a byproduct of low oxygen metabolism that acidifies the blood and can be fatal.

Researchers still suspect metformin might treat specific subgroups of cancer. For example, the authors of the prostate cancer trial presented in Barcelona suggested that metformin might help patients whose cancer has spread to other tissues or multiple sites in their bones. And Goodwin saw a hint in her trial that it might help women whose cancers contain a certain version of a cell-growth gene called ERBB2. But it would require another trial, focused on women with that particular cancer, to prove it.

And there are now better treatments for those patients than there were more than a decade ago when Goodwin started her study, reducing the opportunity to test metformin. Goodwin doesn’t currently have the funding to follow up on this theory.

It may also be that the clinical trials recruited patients with cancers that were too far along. “I always thought we were asking too much of metformin,” says Victoria Bae-Jump, a gynecological oncologist at the University of North Carolina Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center in Chapel Hill. “Maybe it just needs to be earlier in the pathway of growth.” Bae-Jump is now testing metformin in women who have early-stage endometrial cancer or a precursor to it.

Others are investigating metformin for people who have precancerous lesions in their mouths. “The idea would be to keep them from progressing, or reverse the tissues to be more normal,” says Frank Ondrey, a head and neck cancer surgeon at the Masonic Cancer Center of the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. In a small, uncontrolled study of 23 people, metformin halved lesion size in four of them. Ondrey is involved in two ongoing studies, one a randomized, controlled trial, to further test metformin in people with precancerous lesions; these should yield results within a few years.

Subdued expectations

Metformin is also being tested for other conditions such as dementia and a genetic disorder called fragile X syndrome. And perhaps the ultimate potential use for metformin is to slow aging itself. “I think it’s much easier to treat aging and prevent cancer than to treat cancer,” says Nir Barzilai, a geroscientist at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York and president of the nonprofit Academy for Health & Lifespan Research. Through its enhancement of insulin action and metabolism plus its minimization of free radical production, metformin influences all the key hallmarks of aging, such as problems with DNA, mitochondria and stem cells, says Barzilai.

He and colleagues are gathering funds for a randomized, controlled trial of metformin in 3,000 people age 65 through 79 who are showing signs of age-related disease already. The trial will test whether fewer people taking metformin die over six years. Barzilai, who is 68, says he is confident in metformin’s anti-aging ability and already takes the drug himself.

Others, mindful of what happened with cancer, are more circumspect. Pollak says that many of the studies in other areas of medicine are too small to prove metformin works, and Suissa notes that some of the studies finding benefits in populations taking metformin, including for longevity, have the same problems the oh-so-promising early cancer research did.

In short, Suissa says, “Don’t believe everything you hear.”

This story originally appeared in Knowable Magazine.

Knowable Magazine explores the real-world significance of scholarly work through a journalistic lens.

Why a diabetes drug fell short of anticancer hopes Read More »

Rare bear meat at gathering gives 10 people a scare—and parasitic worms

bear, CDC, health, infectious diseases, Meat, outbreak, parasite, Science, trichinella, trichinellosis / Rejus Almole / October 12, 2024

If you’re going to eat a bear, make sure it’s not rare.

You’d be forgiven for thinking that once the beast has been subdued, all danger has passed. But you might still be in for a scare. The animal’s flesh can be riddled with encased worm larvae, which, upon being eaten, will gladly reproduce in your innards and let their offspring roam the rest of your person, including invading your brain and heart. To defeat these savage squirmers, all one must do is cook the meat to at least 165° Fahrenheit.

But that simple solution continues to be ignored, according to a report today in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. In this week’s issue, health officials in North Carolina report that rare bear meat was served at a November 23 gathering, where at least 22 people ate the meat and at least 10 developed symptoms of a worm infection. Of the 10, six were kids and teens between the ages of 10 and 18.

The infection is from the roundworm Trichinella, which causes trichinellosis. While the infection is rarely fatal, the nematodes tend to burrow out of the bowels and meander through the body, embedding in whatever muscle tissue they come across. A telltale sign of an infection in people is facial swelling, caused when the larvae take harbor in the muscles of the face and around the eyes. Of the 10 ill people in North Carolina, nine had facial swelling.

Local health officials were onto the outbreak when one person developed flu-like symptoms and puzzling facial swelling. They then traced it back to the gathering. The report doesn’t specify what kind of gathering it was but noted that 34 attendees in total were surveyed, from which they found the 22 people who ate the rare meat. The 10 people found with symptoms are technically considered only “probable” cases because the infections were never diagnostically confirmed. To confirm a trichinellosis infection, researchers need blood samples taken after the person recovers to look for antibodies against the parasite. None of the 10 people returned for blood draws.

Rare bear meat at gathering gives 10 people a scare—and parasitic worms Read More »

Rocket Report: ULA investigating SRB anomaly; Europa Clipper is ready to fly

rocket report, Science, Space / Mike M. / October 12, 2024

US Space Force payloads will ride on the first flight of Impulse Space’s cryogenic space tug.

Impulse Space is assembling its first methane-fueled Deneb engine, a 15,000-pound-thrust power plant that will propel the company’s Helios space tug. Credit: Impulse Space

Welcome to Edition 7.15 of the Rocket Report! It’s a big week for big rockets, with SpaceX potentially launching its next Starship test flight and a Falcon Heavy rocket with NASA’s Europa Clipper mission this weekend. And a week ago, United Launch Alliance flew its second Vulcan rocket, which lost one of its booster nozzles in midair and amazingly kept going to achieve a successful mission. Are you not entertained?

As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

PLD Space is aiming high. Spanish launch provider PLD Space has revealed a family of new rockets that it plans to introduce beyond its Miura 5 rocket, which is expected to make its inaugural flight in 2025, European Spaceflight reports. The company also revealed that it was working on a crew capsule called Lince (Spanish for Lynx). PLD Space introduced its Miura Next, Miura Next Heavy, and Miura Next Super Heavy launch vehicles, designed in single stick, triple core, and quintuple core configurations with reusable boosters. At the high end of the rocket family’s performance, the Miura Next Super Heavy could deliver up to 53 metric tons (nearly 117,000 pounds) of payload to low-Earth orbit. The Lince capsule could become Europe’s first human-rated crew transportation spacecraft.

Still a year away from reaching space … These are lofty ambitions for a company that has yet to launch anything to space, but it’s good to think big. PLD Space launched a high-altitude test flight of its Miura 1 rocket last year, but it didn’t cross the boundary of space. The first launch campaign for Miura 5, PLD Space’s orbital-class rocket sized for small satellites, is on course to begin by the end of 2025, the company said. The Miura Next family would begin flying by 2030, followed by the heavier rockets a few years later. In April, PLD Space said it had raised 120 million euros ($131 million) from private investors and the Spanish government. This is probably enough to get Miura 5 to the launch pad, but PLD Space will need a lot of technical and financing successes to bring its follow-on vehicles online. (submitted by Ken the Bin and EllPeaTea)

Impulse Space wins Space Force contract. Fresh on the heels of a massive funding round, Impulse Space has landed a $34.5 million contract from the Space Force for two ultra-mobile spacecraft missions, TechCrunch reports. Under the Space Force’s Tactically Responsive Space (TacRS) program, the two missions will demonstrate how highly maneuverable spacecraft can help the military rapidly respond to threats in space. Both missions will use Impulse’s Mira orbital transfer vehicle, which can host experiments and payloads while moving into different orbits around the Earth.

Looking for an advantage … Mira completed its first test flight earlier this year. The payloads on the two Space Force demonstration flights will perform space domain awareness missions, the military service said in a statement. The first mission, called Victus Surgo, will combine the Mira transfer vehicle with Impulse’s higher-power Helios cryogenic methane-fueled kick stage on its first use in orbit. Helios will boost Mira into a high-altitude geostationary transfer orbit after launching on a Falcon 9 rocket. The second mission, called Victus Salo, will send a second Mira spacecraft into low-Earth orbit on a SpaceX rideshare mission. Impulse was founded by rocket scientist Tom Mueller, who was a founding employee at SpaceX before leaving in 2020. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

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The launch campaign begins for Vega C’s return to flight. Days after a crucial test-firing of its redesigned second stage motor, a European Vega C rocket is now being stacked on its launch pad in French Guiana for a return to flight mission scheduled for December 3. Photos released by the French space agency, CNES, show the Vega C’s solid-fueled first stage moving into position on the launch pad. The Vega C launcher is an upgraded version of the Vega rocket that completed its career with a successful launch in September.

A lot of t(h)rust … Vega C made a successful debut in July 2022, then failed on its second flight five months later, destroying a pair of high-value commercial Earth-imaging satellites owned by Airbus. Engineers traced the failure to the second stage motor’s nozzle, prompting a redesign that grounded the Vega C rocket for two years. There is a queue of European space missions waiting for launch on Vega C, and first to go will be the Sentinel 1C radar imaging satellite for the European Commission’s flagship Copernicus program.

Australian launch company rehearses countdown. Gilmour Space still thinks it has a chance to conduct the maiden launch of its Eris rocket sometime this year, despite no launch license from the Australian Space Agency (ASA), having to go hunting for more money, and a wet dress rehearsal throwing up issues that will take several weeks to fix, Space & Defense Tech and Security News reports. Gilmour’s Eris rocket, capable of hauling cargoes up to 672 pounds (305 kilograms) to orbit, would become the first homegrown Australian-built orbital-class rocket.

WDR … The Australian Space Agency has worked on Gilmour’s launch license for around two years, but has yet to give the company the green light to fly the Eris rocket, despite approving licenses for two companies operating privately owned launch ranges elsewhere in Australia. At the beginning of the year, Gilmour targeted a first launch of the Eris rocket in March, but there were delays in getting the vehicle to the launch pad. The rocket went vertical for the first time in April to begin a series of ground tests, culminating in the launch rehearsal at the end of September, in which the company loaded propellants into the rocket and ran the countdown to T-10 seconds. The test uncovered valve and software issues Gilmour must fix before it can fly Eris. (submitted by mryall)

Falcon 9 launches European asteroid mission. The European Space Agency’s Hera mission lifted off Monday aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, heading into the Solar System to investigate an asteroid smashed by NASA two years ago, Ars reports. It will take two years for Hera to travel to asteroids Didymos and Dimorphos, a binary pair, and survey the aftermath of the impact by NASA’s DART spacecraft on Dimorphos in September 2022. DART was NASA’s first planetary defense experiment, demonstrating how a kinetic impactor could knock an asteroid off course if it was on a path to hit Earth. Fortunately, these two asteroids are harmless, but DART proved a spacecraft could deflect an asteroid, if necessary. Coming in at high speed, DART got only a fleeting glimpse of Didymos and Dimorphos, so Hera will take more precise measurements of the asteroids’ interior structure, mass, and orbit to determine exactly how effective DART was.

Falcon soars again … The liftoff Monday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station was the first flight of a Falcon 9 in nine days, since an upper stage anomaly steered the rocket off its intended reentry corridor after an otherwise successful launch. The Federal Aviation Administration grounded the Falcon 9 while SpaceX investigated the problem, but the regulator approved the launch of Hera because the Falcon 9’s upper stage won’t come back to Earth. Instead, it departed into deep space along with the Hera asteroid probe. As of Thursday, all other commercial Falcon 9 missions remain grounded. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Emiratis go with Japan. A UAE mission to travel to the asteroid belt reached a milestone on Wednesday, when an agreement was signed to provide services for the 2028 launch of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Explorer spacecraft, The National reports. Emirati officials selected the Japanese H3 rocket from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) to launch the asteroid explorer. The UAE is a repeat customer for MHI, which also launched the Emirati Hope spacecraft toward Mars in 2020. The mission will see the Mohammed Bin Rashid Explorer perform close flybys of six asteroids to gather data before landing on a seventh asteroid, Justitia.

H3 racking up wins … Japan’s new H3 rocket is taking a slice of the international commercial launch market after achieving back-to-back successful flights this year. The H3, which replaces Japan’s workhorse H-IIA rocket, is primarily intended to ensure Japanese autonomous access to space for national security missions, scientific probes, and resupply flights to the International Space Station. But, somewhat surprisingly, the H3 now has several customers outside of Japan, including the UAE, Eutelsat, and Inmarsat. Perhaps some satellite operators, eager for someone to compete with SpaceX in the launch business, are turning to the H3 as an alternative to United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket, or Blue Origin’s New Glenn. All of these rockets are under pressure to launch numerous payloads for their domestic governments and Amazon’s Kuiper megaconstellation.

China launches mystery satellite. China launched a new communications satellite toward geostationary orbit Thursday, although its precise role remains undisclosed, Space News reports. The satellite lifted off aboard a Long March 3B rocket, and China’s leading state-owned aerospace contractor identified the payload as High orbit Internet satellite-03 (Weixing Hulianwan Gaogui-03). This is the third satellite in this series, following launches in February and August. The lack of publicly available information raises speculation about its potential uses, which could include military applications.

Shortfall … This was China’s 47th space launch of the year, well short of the 100 missions Chinese officials originally projected for 2024. This launch rate is on pace to come close to China’s numbers the last three years. Around 30 of these 100 projected launches were supposed to be with rockets from Chinese commercial startups. China’s commercial launch industry encountered a setback in June, when a rocket broke free of its restraints during a first stage static fire test, sending the fully fueled booster on an uncontrolled flight near populated areas before a fiery crash to the ground.

Vulcan’s second flight was successful but not perfect. United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket, under contract for dozens of flights for the US military and Amazon’s Kuiper broadband network, lifted off from Florida on its second test flight October 4, suffered an anomaly with one of its strap-on boosters, and still achieved a successful mission, Ars reports. This test flight, known as Cert-2, was the second certification mission for the new Vulcan rocket, a milestone that paves the way for the Space Force to clear ULA’s new rocket to begin launching national security satellites in the coming months.

Anomalous plume … What happened 37 seconds after launch was startling and impressive. The exhaust nozzle from one of Vulcan’s two strap-on solid rocket boosters failed and fell off the vehicle, creating a shower of sparks and debris. The launcher visibly tilted along its axis due to asymmetrical thrust from the twin boosters, but Vulcan’s guidance system corrected its trajectory, and the rocket’s BE-4 engines vectored their exhaust to keep the rocket on course. The engines burned somewhat longer than planned to make up for the shortfall in power from the damaged booster, and the rocket still reached its target orbit. However, ULA and Northrop Grumman, the booster manufacturer, must determine what happened with the nozzle before Vulcan can fly again. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Starship could launch this weekend. We may not have to wait as long as we thought for the next test flight of SpaceX’s Starship rocket. The world’s most powerful launcher could fly again from South Texas as soon as Sunday, assuming the Federal Aviation Administration grants approval, Ars reports. The last public statement released from the FAA suggested the agency didn’t expect to determine whether to approve a commercial launch license for SpaceX’s next Starship test flight before late November. There’s some optimism at SpaceX that the FAA might issue a launch license much sooner, perhaps in time for Starship to fly this weekend.

Going for the catch … “The fifth flight test of Starship will aim to take another step towards full and rapid reusability,” SpaceX wrote in an update posted on its website. “The primary objectives will be attempting the first ever return to launch site and catch of the Super Heavy booster and another Starship reentry and landing burn, aiming for an on-target splashdown of Starship in the Indian Ocean.” For the Starship upper stage, this means it will follow pretty much the same trajectory as the last test flight in June. But the most exciting thing about the next flight is the attempt to catch the Super Heavy booster, which will come back to the launch site in Texas at supersonic speed before braking to a hover over the launch pad. Then, mechanical arms, or “chopsticks,” will try to grapple the rocket in midair.

Europa Clipper is ready to fly. As soon as this weekend, a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will lift off from Kennedy Space Center, carrying NASA’s $4.25 billion Europa Clipper spacecraft, Ars reports. This mission is unlikely to definitively answer the question of whether life exists in the liquid water ocean below the icy crust of Jupiter’s icy moon Europa, but it will tell us whether it could, and it will answer so many more questions. The best part is the unknown wonders it will discover. We cannot begin to guess at those, but we can be certain that if all goes well, Clipper will be a thrilling and breathtaking mission. Europa Clipper will zip by Europa 49 times in the early 2030s, probing the frozen world with a sophisticated suite of instruments to yield the best-ever data about any moon of another planet.

Delayed for weather … The launch of Europa Clipper was supposed to happen Thursday, but NASA and SpaceX suspended launch preparations earlier this week as Hurricane Milton approached Florida. The spacecraft is already attached to the Falcon Heavy rocket inside SpaceX’s hangar. Once teams are cleared to return to the space center for work after the storm, they will ready Falcon Heavy to roll to the launch pad. NASA says the launch is currently targeted for no earlier than Sunday.

Next three launches

Oct. 13: Starship/Super Heavy | Flight 5 | Starbase, Texas | 12: 00 UTC

Oct. 13: New Shepard | NS-27 uncrewed flight | Launch Site One, Texas | 13: 00 UTC

Oct. 13: Falcon Heavy | Europa Clipper | Kennedy Space Center, Florida | 16: 12 UTC

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet.

Rocket Report: ULA investigating SRB anomaly; Europa Clipper is ready to fly Read More »

Over 86% of surveyed health care providers are short on IV fluids

baxter, fda, health, Helene, HHS, hospital, IV fluid, Science, shortage, surgeries / Kris Guyer / October 11, 2024

Trucks and Gatorade

Federal officials, meanwhile, are working with Baxter to help support increasing supplies, setting up temporary imports, and expediting consideration of any shelf-life extension requests.

In a letter earlier this week, Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra told health care leaders that the department is “working tirelessly to mitigate the sterile solutions supply chain disruptions” and, beyond the current crisis, is also working to diversify the supply chain so it is less reliant on a single plant.

For now, though, “HHS is encouraging all providers and health systems, regardless of whether they have experienced a disruption in their supply, to take measures to conserve these critical products,” the letter read. Some hospitals have already reported giving patients Gatorade and Pedialyte to conserve IV fluid supplies.

In one bright spot in the current disruptions, fears that Hurricane Milton would disrupt another IV fluid manufacturing plant in Florida were not realized this week. B. Braun Medical’s manufacturing site in Daytona Beach was not seriously impacted by the storm, the company announced, and production resumed normally Friday. Prior to the storm, with the help of the federal government, B. Braun reportedly moved more than 60 truckloads of IV fluid inventory north of Florida for safekeeping. That inventory will be returned to the Daytona facility, according to reporting by the Associated Press.

Over 86% of surveyed health care providers are short on IV fluids Read More »

Climate change boosted Milton’s landfall strength from Category 2 to 3

atmospheric science, climate change, Earth science, Hurricane Milton, hurricanes, meteorology, Science, tropical cyclones / Kris Guyer / October 11, 2024

Using this simulated data set, called IRIS, the researchers selected for those storms that made landfall along a track similar to that of Milton. Using these, they show that the warming climate has boosted the frequency of storms of Milton’s intensity by 40 percent. Correspondingly, the maximum wind speeds of similar storms have been boosted by about 10 percent. In Milton’s case, that means that, in the absence of climate change, it was likely to have made landfall as a Category 2 storm, rather than the Category 3 it actually was.

Rainfall

The lack of full meteorological data caused a problem when it came to analyzing Milton’s rainfall. The researchers ended up having to analyze rainfall more generally. They took four data sets that do track rainfall across these regions and tracked the link between extreme rainfall and the warming climate to estimate how much more often extreme events occur in a world that is now 1.3° C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times.

They focus on instances of extreme one-day rainfall within the June to November period, looking specifically at 1-in-10-year and 1-in-100-year events. Both of these produced similar results, suggesting that heavy one-day rainfalls are about twice as likely in today’s climates, and the most extreme of these are between 20 and 30 percent more intense.

These results came from three of the four data sets used, which produced largely similar results. The fourth dataset they used suggested a far stronger effect of climate change, but since it wasn’t consistent with the rest, these results weren’t used.

As with the Helene analysis, it’s worth noting that this work represents a specific snapshot in time along a long-term warming trajectory. In other words, it’s looking at the impact of 1.3° C of warming at a time when our emissions are nearly at the point where they commit us to at least 1.5° C of warming. And that will tilt the scales further in favor of extreme weather events like this.

Climate change boosted Milton’s landfall strength from Category 2 to 3 Read More »

Remains of Andrew “Sandy” Irvine found on Everest

Andrew Irvine, exploration, Mount Everest, mountaineering, Science / Paul Patrick / October 11, 2024

In 2019, a NatGeo expedition attempted to locate Irvine’s body (lost for over 95 years) and hopefully retrieve the man’s camera, based on Holzel’s conclusions. They failed, although the expedition was filmed and became a gripping 2020 documentary, Lost on Everest. Chin’s expedition took up the mantle for the hunt for Irvine’s remains this year.

In September, Chin’s team found a 1933 oxygen canister as they were descending Central Rongbuk Glacier, most likely from the 1933 expedition that found Irvine’s ice axe on the northeast ridge. The canister had fallen off the mountain, and the team reasoned that it probably fell farther than a body would have, so Irvine’s remains could be just a few hundred yards up the glacier. So they targeted their search to that area.

Eventually, they spotted a boot emerging from the melting ice: old cracked leather with studded soles and steel hobnails consistent with 1920s climbing gear. Inside was the sock. “It was actually [expedition member] Erich [Roepke] who spotted something and was like, ‘Hey, what’s that?,’” Chin told National Geographic. “I think it literally melted out a week before we found it. I lifted up the sock and there’s a red label that has A.C. IRVINE stitched onto it. We were all literally running around in circles dropping F-bombs.”

The partial remains are now in the custody of the China Tibet Mountaineering Association. Official confirmation that this is, indeed, Irvine must await the DNA results. “But I mean, dude—there’s a label on it,” Chin said. “Any expedition to Everest follows in the shadow of Irvine and Mallory. We certainly did. And sometimes in life the greatest discoveries occur when you aren’t even looking. This was a monumental and emotional moment for us and our entire team on the ground, and we just hope this can finally bring peace of mind to his relatives and the climbing world at large.”

Remains of Andrew “Sandy” Irvine found on Everest Read More »

Breakdancers at risk for “headspin hole,” doctors warn

British Medical Journal, medicine, Science, sports medicine / Tim Belzer / October 10, 2024

Breakdancing has become a global phenomenon since it first emerged in the 1970s, even making its debut as an official event at this year’s Summer Olympics. But hardcore breakers are prone to injury (sprains, strains, tendonitis), including a bizarre condition known as “headspin hole” or “breakdance bulge”—a protruding lump on the scalp caused by repeatedly performing the power move known as a headspin. A new paper published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) describes one such case that required surgery to redress.

According to the authors, there are very few published papers about the phenomenon; they cite two in particular. A 2009 German study of 106 breakdancers found that 60.4 percent of them experienced overuse injuries to the scalp because of headspins, with 31.1 percent of those cases reporting hair loss, 23.6 percent developing head bumps, and 36.8 percent experiencing scalp inflammation. A 2023 study of 142 breakdancers reported those who practiced headspins more than three times a week were much more likely to suffer hair loss.

So when a male breakdancer in his early 30s sought treatment for a pronounced bump on top of his head, Mikkal Bundgaard Skotting and Christian Baastrup Søndergaard of Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark seized the opportunity to describe the clinical case study in detail, taking an MRI, surgically removing the growth, and analyzing the removed mass.

The man in question had been breakdancing for 19 years, incorporating various forms of headspins into his training regimen. He usually trained five days a week for 90 minutes at a time, with headspins applying pressure to the top of his head in two- to seven-minute intervals. In the last five years, he noticed a marked increase in the size of the bump on his head and increased tenderness. The MRI showed considerable thickening of the surrounding skin, tissue, and skull.

Breakdancers at risk for “headspin hole,” doctors warn Read More »