Kamala Harris

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Due to AI fakes, the “deep doubt” era is here

AI, Biz & IT, Danielle K. Citron, deep doubt, Deepfakes, Donald Trump, doubt, facebook, history, image synthesis, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liar's Dividend, machine learning, media literacy, music synthesis, Politics, Robert Chesney, Social Media, text synthesis, video synthesis, voice synthesis, X / /
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Memento | Aurich Lawson

Given the flood of photorealistic AI-generated images washing over social media networks like X and Facebook these days, we’re seemingly entering a new age of media skepticism: the era of what I’m calling “deep doubt.” While questioning the authenticity of digital content stretches back decades—and analog media long before that—easy access to tools that generate convincing fake content has led to a new wave of liars using AI-generated scenes to deny real documentary evidence. Along the way, people’s existing skepticism toward online content from strangers may be reaching new heights.

Deep doubt is skepticism of real media that stems from the existence of generative AI. This manifests as broad public skepticism toward the veracity of media artifacts, which in turn leads to a notable consequence: People can now more credibly claim that real events did not happen and suggest that documentary evidence was fabricated using AI tools.

The concept behind “deep doubt” isn’t new, but its real-world impact is becoming increasingly apparent. Since the term “deepfake” first surfaced in 2017, we’ve seen a rapid evolution in AI-generated media capabilities. This has led to recent examples of deep doubt in action, such as conspiracy theorists claiming that President Joe Biden has been replaced by an AI-powered hologram and former President Donald Trump’s baseless accusation in August that Vice President Kamala Harris used AI to fake crowd sizes at her rallies. And on Friday, Trump cried “AI” again at a photo of him with E. Jean Carroll, a writer who successfully sued him for sexual assault, that contradicts his claim of never having met her.

Legal scholars Danielle K. Citron and Robert Chesney foresaw this trend years ago, coining the term “liar’s dividend” in 2019 to describe the consequence of deep doubt: deepfakes being weaponized by liars to discredit authentic evidence. But whereas deep doubt was once a hypothetical academic concept, it is now our reality.

The rise of deepfakes, the persistence of doubt

Doubt has been a political weapon since ancient times. This modern AI-fueled manifestation is just the latest evolution of a tactic where the seeds of uncertainty are sown to manipulate public opinion, undermine opponents, and hide the truth. AI is the newest refuge of liars.

Over the past decade, the rise of deep-learning technology has made it increasingly easy for people to craft false or modified pictures, audio, text, or video that appear to be non-synthesized organic media. Deepfakes were named after a Reddit user going by the name “deepfakes,” who shared AI-faked pornography on the service, swapping out the face of a performer with the face of someone else who wasn’t part of the original recording.

In the 20th century, one could argue that a certain part of our trust in media produced by others was a result of how expensive and time-consuming it was, and the skill it required, to produce documentary images and films. Even texts required a great deal of time and skill. As the deep doubt phenomenon grows, it will erode this 20th-century media sensibility. But it will also affect our political discourse, legal systems, and even our shared understanding of historical events that rely on that media to function—we rely on others to get information about the world. From photorealistic images to pitch-perfect voice clones, our perception of what we consider “truth” in media will need recalibration.

In April, a panel of federal judges highlighted the potential for AI-generated deepfakes to not only introduce fake evidence but also cast doubt on genuine evidence in court trials. The concern emerged during a meeting of the US Judicial Conference’s Advisory Committee on Evidence Rules, where the judges discussed the challenges of authenticating digital evidence in an era of increasingly sophisticated AI technology. Ultimately, the judges decided to postpone making any AI-related rule changes, but their meeting shows that the subject is already being considered by American judges.

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Google’s threat team confirms Iran targeting Trump, Biden, and Harris campaigns

APT42, Biz & IT, Donald Trump, Gmail, Google, google tag, Iran, Kamala Harris, phishing, President Biden, Roger Stone, Security, spearphishing, threat analysis group / /

It is only August —

Another Big Tech firm seems to confirm Trump adviser Roger Stone was hacked.

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Roger Stone, former adviser to Donald Trump's presidential campaign, center, during the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee on July 17, 2024.

Enlarge / Roger Stone, former adviser to Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, center, during the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee on July 17, 2024.

Getty Images

Google’s Threat Analysis Group confirmed Wednesday that they observed a threat actor backed by the Iranian government targeting Google accounts associated with US presidential campaigns, in addition to stepped-up attacks on Israeli targets.

APT42, associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, “consistently targets high-profile users in Israel and the US,” the Threat Analysis Group (TAG) writes. The Iranian group uses hosted malware, phishing pages, malicious redirects, and other tactics to gain access to Google, Dropbox, OneDrive, and other cloud-based accounts. Google’s TAG writes that it reset accounts, sent warnings to users, and blacklisted domains associated with APT42’s phishing attempts.

Among APT42’s tools were Google Sites pages that appeared to be a petition from legitimate Jewish activists, calling on Israel to mediate its ongoing conflict with Hamas. The page was fashioned from image files, not HTML, and an ngrok redirect sent users to phishing pages when they moved to sign the petition.

A petition purporting to be from The Jewish Agency for Israel, seeking support for mediation measures—but signatures quietly redirect to phishing sites, according to Google.

A petition purporting to be from The Jewish Agency for Israel, seeking support for mediation measures—but signatures quietly redirect to phishing sites, according to Google.

Google

In the US, Google’s TAG notes that, as with the 2020 elections, APT42 is actively targeting the personal emails of “roughly a dozen individuals affiliated with President Biden and former President Trump.” TAG confirms that APT42 “successfully gained access to the personal Gmail account of a high-profile political consultant,” which may be longtime Republican operative Roger Stone, as reported by The Guardian, CNN, and The Washington Post, among others. Microsoft separately noted last week that a “former senior advisor” to the Trump campaign had his Microsoft account compromised, which Stone also confirmed.

“Today, TAG continues to observe unsuccessful attempts from APT42 to compromise the personal accounts of individuals affiliated with President Biden, Vice President Harris and former President Trump, including current and former government officials and individuals associated with the campaigns,” Google’s TAG writes.

PDFs and phishing kits target both sides

Google’s post details the ways in which APT42 targets operatives in both parties. The broad strategy is to get the target off their email and into channels like Signal, Telegram, or WhatsApp, or possibly a personal email address that may not have two-factor authentication and threat monitoring set up. By establishing trust through sending legitimate PDFs, or luring them to video meetings, APT42 can then push links that use phishing kits with “a seamless flow” to harvest credentials from Google, Hotmail, and Yahoo.

After gaining a foothold, APT42 will often work to preserve its access by generating application-specific passwords inside the account, which typically bypass multifactor tools. Google notes that its Advanced Protection Program, intended for individuals at high risk of attack, disables such measures.

Publications, including Politico, The Washington Post, and The New York Times, have reported being offered documents from the Trump campaign, potentially stemming from Iran’s phishing efforts, in an echo of Russia’s 2016 targeting of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. None of them have moved to publish stories related to the documents.

John Hultquist, with Google-owned cybersecurity firm Mandiant, told Wired’s Andy Greenberg that what looks initially like spying or political interference by Iran can easily escalate to sabotage and that both parties are equal targets. He also said that current thinking about threat vectors may need to expand.

“It’s not just a Russia problem anymore. It’s broader than that,” Hultquist said. “There are multiple teams in play. And we have to keep an eye out for all of them.”

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