The H5N1 bird flu situation in the US seems more fraught than ever this week as the virus continues to spread swiftly in dairy cattle and birds while sporadically jumping to humans.
On Monday, officials in Louisiana announced that the person who had developed the country’s first severe H5N1 infection had died of the infection, marking the country’s first H5N1 death. Meanwhile, with no signs of H5N1 slowing, seasonal flu is skyrocketing, raising anxiety that the different flu viruses could mingle, swap genetic elements, and generate a yet more dangerous virus strain.
But, despite the seemingly fever-pitch of viral activity and fears, a representative for the World Health Organization today noted that risk to the general population remains low—as long as one critical factor remains absent: person-to-person spread.
“We are concerned, of course, but we look at the risk to the general population and, as I said, it still remains low,” WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris told reporters at a Geneva press briefing Tuesday in response to questions related to the US death. In terms of updating risk assessments, you have to look at how the virus behaved in that patient and if it jumped from one person to another person, which it didn’t, Harris explained. “At the moment, we’re not seeing behavior that’s changing our risk assessment,” she added.
In a statement on the death late Monday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention emphasized that no human-to-human transmission has been identified in the US. To date, there have been 66 documented human cases of H5N1 infections since the start of 2024. Of those, 40 were linked to exposure to infected dairy cows, 23 were linked to infected poultry, two had no clear source, and one case—the fatal case in Louisiana—was linked to exposure to infected backyard and wild birds.
So, in all, Missouri’s case count in the H5N1 outbreak will stay at one for now, and there remains no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Though both the household contact and the index case had evidence of an exposure, their identical blood test results and simultaneous symptom development suggest that they were exposed at the same time by a single source—what that source was, we may never know.
California and Washington
While the virus seems to have hit a dead end in Missouri, it’s still running rampant in California. Since state officials announced the first dairy herd infections at the end of August, the state has now tallied 137 infected herds and at least 13 infected dairy farm workers. California, the country’s largest dairy producer, now has the most herd infections and human cases in the outbreak, which was first confirmed in March.
In the briefing Thursday, officials announced another front in the bird flu fight. A chicken farm in Washington state with about 800,000 birds became infected with a different strain of H5 bird flu than the one circulating among dairy farms. This strain likely came from wild birds. While the chickens on the infected farms were being culled, the virus spread to farmworkers. So far, two workers have been confirmed to be infected, and five others are presumed to be positive.
As of publication time, at least 31 humans have been confirmed infected with H5 bird flu this year.
With the spread of bird flu in dairies and the fall bird migration underway, the virus will continue to have opportunities to jump to mammals and gain access to people. Officials have also expressed anxiety as seasonal flu ramps up, given influenza’s penchant for swapping genetic fragments to generate new viral combinations. The reassortment and exposure to humans increases the risk of the virus adapting to spread from human to human and spark an outbreak.
A small study in Texas suggests that human bird flu cases are being missed on dairy farms where the H5N1 virus has taken off in cows, sparking an unprecedented nationwide outbreak.
The finding adds some data to what many experts have suspected amid the outbreak. But the authors of the study, led by researchers at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, went further, stating bluntly why the US is failing to fully surveil, let alone contain, a virus with pandemic potential.
“Due to fears that research might damage dairy businesses, studies like this one have been few,” the authors write in the topline summary of their study, which was posted online as a pre-print and had not been peer-reviewed.
The study authors, led by Gregory Gray, were invited to two undisclosed dairy farms in Texas that experienced H5N1 outbreaks in their herds starting in early and late March, respectively. The researchers had a previously approved research protocol to study novel respiratory viruses on dairy farms, easing the ability to quickly begin the work.
Rare study
“Farm A” had 7,200 cows and 180 workers. Illnesses began on March 6, and nearly 5 percent of the herd was estimated to be affected during the outbreak. “Farm B” had 8,200 cows and 45 workers. After illnesses began on March 20, an estimated 14 percent of the herd was affected.
The researchers first visited Farm A on April 3 and Farm B on April 4, collecting swabs and samples at each. Based on the previously approved protocol, they were limited to taking nasal swabs and blood samples from no more than 10 workers per farm. On Farm A, 10 workers provided nasal swabs and blood samples. On Farm B, only seven agreed to give nasal swabs, and four gave blood samples.
While swabs from cows, milk, a dead bird, and a sample of fecal slurry showed signs of H5N1, all of the nasal swabs from the 14 humans were negative. However, when researchers looked for H5N1-targeting antibodies in their blood—an indicator that they were previously infected—two of the 14, about 14 percent, were positive.
Both of the workers with previous infections, a man and a woman, were from Farm A. And both reported having flu-like symptoms. The man worked inside cattle corrals, close to the animals, and he reported having a cough at the time the samples were taken. The woman, meanwhile, worked in the cafeteria on the farm and reported recently recovering from an illness that included fever, cough, and sore throat. She noted that other people on the farm had similar respiratory illnesses around when she did.
The finding suggests human cases of H5N1 are going undetected. Moreover, managing to find evidence of two undetected infections in a sample of just 14 workers suggests it may not be hard to find more. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that around 200,000 people work with livestock in the US.
Known infections in humans have all been mild so far. But experts are anxious that with each new infection, the wily H5N1 virus is getting new opportunities to adapt further to humans. If the virus evolves to cause more severe disease and spread from human to human, it could spark another pandemic.
Federal officials are also worried about this potential threat. In a press briefing Tuesday, Nirav Shah, the CDC’s principal deputy director, announced a $5 million effort to vaccinate farm workers—but against seasonal flu.
Shah explained that the CDC is concerned that if farm workers are infected with H5N1 and the seasonal flu at the same time, the viruses could exchange genetic segments—a process called reassortment. This could give rise to the pandemic threat experts are worried about. By vaccinating the workers against the seasonal flu, it could potentially prevent the viruses from comingling in one person, Shah suggested.
The US does have a bird flu-specific vaccine available. But in the briefing, Shah said that the use of that vaccine in farm workers is not planned for now, though there’s still active discussion on the possibility. The lack of severe disease and no documented human-to-human transmission from H5N1 infections both argue against deploying a new vaccine, Shah said. “There has to be a strong and compelling case,” he added. Shah also suggested that the agency expects vaccine uptake to be low among farm workers.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus that spilled from wild birds into US dairy cows late last year may have recently seeped from a dairy farm in Colorado to a nearby poultry farm, where it then infected five workers tasked with culling the infected chickens
In a press briefing Tuesday, federal officials reported that four of the avian influenza cases have been confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while the fifth remains a presumptive positive awaiting CDC confirmation.
All five people have shown mild illnesses, though they experienced variable symptoms. Some of the cases involved conjunctivitis, as was seen in other human cases linked to the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows. Others in the cluster of five had respiratory and typical flu-like symptoms, including fever, chills, sore throat, runny nose, and cough. None of the five cases required hospitalization.
The virus infecting the five people is closely related to the virus infecting the chickens on the poultry farm, which, in turn, is closely related to virus seen in infected dairy herds and in other human cases that have been linked to the dairy outbreak. The affected poultry farm is in Colorado’s northern county of Weld, which has also reported about two dozen outbreaks of avian influenza in dairy herds.
Dairy to poultry hypothesis
In one fell swoop, Colorado’s poultry farm outbreak has more than doubled the number of human avian influenza cases linked to the dairy cow spillover, bringing the previous tally of four cases to nine. While officials have previously noted instances where it appeared that H5N1 on dairy farms had moved to nearby poultry farms, this appears to be the first time such spread has led to documented human infections.
The link between the poultry farm cases and neighboring dairy farms is still just a hypothesis, however, Nirav Shah, the principal deputy director at the CDC, emphasized to reporters Tuesday. “It is a hypothesis that needs and requires a full investigation. But that is a hypothesis at this point,” he said of the link between the dairy farms and the poultry farm. So far, there is no direct evidence of a specific source of the poultry farm’s infection, and the route of infection is also unclear.
Throughout the outbreak of H5N1 on dairy farms, officials have noted that the primary way the virus appears to spread to new farms is via the movement of cows, people, and machinery between those facilities. There remains no evidence of human-to-human transmission. But milk from infected cows has been found to be brimming with high levels of infectious virus, and milk-contaminated equipment is a prime suspect in the spread.
In the press briefing Tuesday, Eric Deeble, acting senior advisor for H5N1 response with the US Department of Agriculture, noted the poultry are very susceptible to avian influenza and are easily infected. “It does not take much to introduce this into a flock,” Deeble said. The USDA is now working on a “trace-back” investigation on how the Colorado poultry farm was infected.
Searing spread
As for how the farm workers specifically became infected with the virus, health officials pointed to high temperatures that prevented workers from donning protective gear. The poultry farm is a commercial egg layer operation with around 1.8 million birds. Given the presence of bird flu on the premises, all 1.8 million birds need to be culled, aka “depopulated.” This is being carried out using mobile carts with carbon dioxide gas chambers, a common culling method. Workers are tasked with placing the birds in the chambers, which only hold a few dozen birds at a time. In all, the method requires workers to have a high degree of contact with the infected birds, going from bird to bird and batch to batch with the carts.
Amid this grim task, temperatures in the area reached over 100° Fahrenheit, and massive industrial fans were turned on in the facility to try to cool things down. Between the heat and the fans, the approximately 160 people involved in the culling struggled to use personal protective equipment (PPE). The required PPE for the depopulation involves a full Tyvek suit, boots, gloves, goggles, and an N95 respirator.
“The difficulty with wearing all that gear in that kind of heat, you can imagine,” said Julie Gauthier, executive director for field operations at the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). The industrial fans blowing large amounts of air made it yet more difficult for workers to keep goggles and respirators on their faces, she said.
The CDC and the USDA are both involved in further investigations of the poultry farm outbreak. CDC’s Shah noted that the team the agency deployed to Colorado included an industrial hygienist, who can work on strategies to prevent further transmission.
To date, at least 161 herds in 13 states have tested positive for avian influenza since the dairy outbreak was confirmed in March. Since January 2022, when US birds first tested positive for the H5N1 virus, 99 million birds in the US have been affected in 48 states, which involved 1,165 individual outbreaks.
