Author name: Mike M.

microsoft-cto-kevin-scott-thinks-llm-“scaling-laws”-will-hold-despite-criticism

Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott thinks LLM “scaling laws” will hold despite criticism

AI, AI research, AI scaling laws, Biz & IT, chatbots, GPT-4, GPT-5, Kevin Scott, large langauge models, machine learning, microsoft, Microsoft CTO, openai, scaling laws / /

As the word turns —

Will LLMs keep improving if we throw more compute at them? OpenAI dealmaker thinks so.

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Kevin Scott, CTO and EVP of AI at Microsoft speaks onstage during Vox Media's 2023 Code Conference at The Ritz-Carlton, Laguna Niguel on September 27, 2023 in Dana Point, California.

Enlarge / Kevin Scott, CTO and EVP of AI at Microsoft speaks onstage during Vox Media’s 2023 Code Conference at The Ritz-Carlton, Laguna Niguel on September 27, 2023 in Dana Point, California.

During an interview with Sequoia Capital’s Training Data podcast published last Tuesday, Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott doubled down on his belief that so-called large language model (LLM) “scaling laws” will continue to drive AI progress, despite some skepticism in the field that progress has leveled out. Scott played a key role in forging a $13 billion technology-sharing deal between Microsoft and OpenAI.

“Despite what other people think, we’re not at diminishing marginal returns on scale-up,” Scott said. “And I try to help people understand there is an exponential here, and the unfortunate thing is you only get to sample it every couple of years because it just takes a while to build supercomputers and then train models on top of them.”

LLM scaling laws refer to patterns explored by OpenAI researchers in 2020 showing that the performance of language models tends to improve predictably as the models get larger (more parameters), are trained on more data, and have access to more computational power (compute). The laws suggest that simply scaling up model size and training data can lead to significant improvements in AI capabilities without necessarily requiring fundamental algorithmic breakthroughs.

Since then, other researchers have challenged the idea of persisting scaling laws over time, but the concept is still a cornerstone of OpenAI’s AI development philosophy.

You can see Scott’s comments in the video below beginning around 46: 05:

Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott on how far scaling laws will extend

Scott’s optimism contrasts with a narrative among some critics in the AI community that progress in LLMs has plateaued around GPT-4 class models. The perception has been fueled by largely informal observations—and some benchmark results—about recent models like Google’s Gemini 1.5 Pro, Anthropic’s Claude Opus, and even OpenAI’s GPT-4o, which some argue haven’t shown the dramatic leaps in capability seen in earlier generations, and that LLM development may be approaching diminishing returns.

“We all know that GPT-3 was vastly better than GPT-2. And we all know that GPT-4 (released thirteen months ago) was vastly better than GPT-3,” wrote AI critic Gary Marcus in April. “But what has happened since?”

The perception of plateau

Scott’s stance suggests that tech giants like Microsoft still feel justified in investing heavily in larger AI models, betting on continued breakthroughs rather than hitting a capability plateau. Given Microsoft’s investment in OpenAI and strong marketing of its own Microsoft Copilot AI features, the company has a strong interest in maintaining the perception of continued progress, even if the tech stalls.

Frequent AI critic Ed Zitron recently wrote in a post on his blog that one defense of continued investment into generative AI is that “OpenAI has something we don’t know about. A big, sexy, secret technology that will eternally break the bones of every hater,” he wrote. “Yet, I have a counterpoint: no it doesn’t.”

Some perceptions of slowing progress in LLM capabilities and benchmarking may be due to the rapid onset of AI in the public eye when, in fact, LLMs have been developing for years prior. OpenAI continued to develop LLMs during a roughly three-year gap between the release of GPT-3 in 2020 and GPT-4 in 2023. Many people likely perceived a rapid jump in capability with GPT-4’s launch in 2023 because they had only become recently aware of GPT-3-class models with the launch of ChatGPT in late November 2022, which used GPT-3.5.

In the podcast interview, the Microsoft CTO pushed back against the idea that AI progress has stalled, but he acknowledged the challenge of infrequent data points in this field, as new models often take years to develop. Despite this, Scott expressed confidence that future iterations will show improvements, particularly in areas where current models struggle.

“The next sample is coming, and I can’t tell you when, and I can’t predict exactly how good it’s going to be, but it will almost certainly be better at the things that are brittle right now, where you’re like, oh my god, this is a little too expensive, or a little too fragile, for me to use,” Scott said in the interview. “All of that gets better. It’ll get cheaper, and things will become less fragile. And then more complicated things will become possible. That is the story of each generation of these models as we’ve scaled up.”

Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott thinks LLM “scaling laws” will hold despite criticism Read More »

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China tells WTO that US EV subsidies are unfair trade barriers

Cars, Chinese EVs, tariffs, world trade organization / /

trade war continues —

China says it’s unfair that only EVs made in North America qualify for tax credits.

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China money RMB and USA USD

Getty Images

The ongoing dispute between the United States and China over electric vehicles shows no sign of abating. Today, Reuters reports that China has asked the World Trade Organization to set up a special panel to determine if US EV subsidies are an unfair trade barrier.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has been the most significant climate legislation in US history, with hundreds of billions of dollars of funding for the clean energy transition. Among its many details, it revamped the federal tax credit for buying a new electric vehicle.

In the past, a credit of up to $7,500 was tied to a plug-in vehicle’s battery capacity. But it’s now tied to where the car and its batteries were assembled, as well as where the battery minerals come from. Final assembly of the vehicle must be in North America, for example, and ever-increasing amounts of the battery pack’s content and value must come from North America or a country with which the US has a free trade agreement.

Even more troubling for Chinese automakers is a rule from the US Treasury Department that prohibits tax subsidies for vehicles manufactured by companies linked to “foreign entities of concern,” a category that includes Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China.

The measures were included in tax credit rules after extensive lobbying from automakers and unions in the US and politicians from both sides of the aisle. Pressure from the automotive industry also succeeded in getting the Mexican government to promise not to subsidize new Chinese EV factories south of the US border.

In May, US President Joe Biden levied a new 100 percent tariff targeted at specific Chinese imports, including EVs. In Europe, similar fears over the impact of heavily subsidized Chinese EVs on domestic car production saw the EU raise new tariffs of up to 37.6 percent on Chinese-made EVs, despite objections from the German auto industry.

China’s action at the WTO actually predates the new US EV tariffs—it first went to the trade organization in March, arguing that the US tax credits hinder fair competition and break existing WTO agreements.

China’s commerce ministry told Reuters that protectionist EV subsidies from the US “undermine international cooperation on climate change.”

China tells WTO that US EV subsidies are unfair trade barriers Read More »

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Animals use physics? Let us count the ways

biological physics, Science, syndication / /
kitten latches on to a pole with its two front paws

Isaac Newton would never have discovered the laws of motion had he studied only cats.

Suppose you hold a cat, stomach up, and drop it from a second-story window. If a cat is simply a mechanical system that obeys Newton’s rules of matter in motion, it should land on its back. (OK, there are some technicalities—like this should be done in a vacuum, but ignore that for now.) Instead, most cats usually avoid injury by twisting themselves on the way down to land on their feet.

Most people are not mystified by this trick—everybody has seen videos attesting to cats’ acrobatic prowess. But for more than a century, scientists have wondered about the physics of how cats do it. Clearly, the mathematical theorem analyzing the falling cat as a mechanical system fails for live cats, as Nobel laureate Frank Wilczek points out in a recent paper.

“This theorem is not relevant to real biological cats,” writes Wilczek, a theoretical physicist at MIT. They are not closed mechanical systems, and can “consume stored energy … empowering mechanical motion.”

Nevertheless, the laws of physics do apply to cats—as well as every other kind of animal, from insects to elephants. Biology does not avoid physics; it embraces it. From friction on microscopic scales to fluid dynamics in water and air, animals exploit physical laws to run or swim or fly. Every other aspect of animal behavior, from breathing to building shelters, depends in some way on the restrictions imposed, and opportunities permitted, by physics.

“Living organisms are … systems whose actions are constrained by physics across multiple length scales and timescales,” Jennifer Rieser and coauthors write in the current issue of the Annual Review of Condensed Matter Physics.

While the field of animal behavior physics is still in its infancy, substantial progress has been made in explaining individual behaviors, along with how those behaviors are shaped via interactions with other individuals and the environment. Apart from discovering more about how animals perform their diverse repertoire of skills, such research may also lead to new physics knowledge gained by scrutinizing animal abilities that scientists don’t yet understand.

Critters in motion

Physics applies to animals in action over a wide range of spatial scales. At the smallest end of the range, attractive forces between nearby atoms facilitate the ability of geckos and some insects to climb up walls or even walk on ceilings. On a slightly larger scale, textures and structures provide adhesion for other biological gymnastics. In bird feathers, for instance, tiny hooks and barbs act like Velcro, holding feathers in position to enhance lift when flying, Rieser and colleagues report.

Biological textures also aid movement by facilitating friction between animal parts and surfaces. Scales on California king snakes possess textures that allow rapid forward sliding, but increase friction to retard backward or sideways motion. Some sidewinding snakes have apparently evolved different textures that reduce friction in the direction of motion, recent research suggests.

Small-scale structures are also important for animals’ interaction with water. For many animals, microstructures make the body “superhydrophobic”—capable of blocking the penetration of water. “In wet climates, water droplet shedding can be essential in animals, like flying birds and insects, where weight and stability are crucially important,” note Rieser, of Emory University, and coauthors Chantal Nguyen, Orit Peleg and Calvin Riiska.

Water-blocking surfaces also help animals keep their skins clean. “This self-cleansing mechanism … can be important to help protect the animal from dangers like skin-borne parasites and other infections,” the Annual Review authors explain. And in some cases, removing foreign material from an animal’s surface may be necessary to preserve the surface properties that enhance camouflage.

Animals use physics? Let us count the ways Read More »

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In the South, sea level rise accelerates at some of the most extreme rates on Earth

climate change, coastal flooding, Florida, rising sea level, Science, syndication / /

migrating inland —

The surge is startling scientists, amplifying impacts such as hurricane storm surges.

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Older man points to the rising tide while standing on a dock.

Enlarge / Steve Salem is a 50-year boat captain who lives on a tributary of the St. Johns River. The rising tides in Jacksonville are testing his intuition.

This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy, and the environment. It is republished with permission. Sign up for their newsletter here. 

JACKSONVILLE, Fla.—For most of his life, Steve Salem has led an existence closely linked with the rise and fall of the tides.

Salem is a 50-year boat captain who designed and built his 65-foot vessel by hand.

“Me and Noah, we’re related somewhere,” said Salem, 75, whose silver beard evokes Ernest Hemingway.

Salem is familiar with how the sun and moon influence the tides and feels an innate sense for their ebb and flow, although the tides here are beginning to test even his intuition.

He and his wife live in a rust-colored ranch-style house along a tributary of the St. Johns River, Florida’s longest. Before they moved in the house had flooded, in 2017, as Hurricane Irma swirled by. The house flooded again in 2022, when Hurricane Nicole defied his expectations. But Salem believes the house is sturdy and that he can manage the tides, as he always has.

“I’m a water dog to begin with. I’ve always been on the water,” said Salem, who prefers to go by Captain Steve. “I worry about things that I have to do something about. If I can’t do anything about it, then worrying about it is going to do what?”

Across the American South, tides are rising at accelerating rates that are among the most extreme on Earth, constituting a surge that has startled scientists such as Jeff Chanton, professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science at Florida State University.

“It’s pretty shocking,” he said. “You would think it would increase gradually, it would be a gradual thing. But this is like a major shift.”

Worldwide sea levels have climbed since 1900 by some 1.5 millimeters a year, a pace that is unprecedented in at least 3,000 years and generally attributable to melting ice sheets and glaciers and also the expansion of the oceans as their temperatures warm. Since the middle of the 20th century the rate has gained speed, exceeding 3 millimeters a year since 1992.

In the South the pace has quickened further, jumping from about 1.7 millimeters a year at the turn of the 20th century to at least 8.4 millimeters by 2021, according to a 2023 study published in Nature Communications based on tidal gauge records from throughout the region. In Pensacola, a beachy community on the western side of the Florida Panhandle, the rate soared to roughly 11 millimeters a year by the end of 2021.

“I think people just really have no idea what is coming, because we have no way of visualizing that through our own personal experiences, or that of the last 250 years,” said Randall Parkinson, a coastal geologist at Florida International University. “It’s not something where you go, ‘I know what that might look like because I’ve seen that.’ Because we haven’t.

“It’s the same everywhere, from North Carolina all the way down to the Florida Keys and all the way up into Alabama,” he said. “All of these areas are extremely vulnerable.”

The acceleration is poised to amplify impacts such as hurricane storm surges, nuisance flooding and land loss. In recent years the rising tides have coincided with record-breaking hurricane seasons, pushing storm surges higher and farther inland. In 2022 Hurricane Ian, which came ashore in southwest Florida, was the costliest hurricane in state history and third-costliest to date in the United States, after Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017.

“It doesn’t even take a major storm event anymore. You just get these compounding effects,” said Rachel Cleetus, a policy director at the Union for Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group. “All of a sudden you have a much more impactful flooding event, and a lot of the infrastructure, frankly, like the stormwater infrastructure, it’s just not built for this.”

In the South, sea level rise accelerates at some of the most extreme rates on Earth Read More »

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NATO allies pledge $1 billion to promote sharing of space-based intel

military space, Nato, nato summit, Science, Space / /

Breaking barriers —

Agreement marks the largest investment in space-based capabilities in NATO’s history.

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Heads of state pose for a group photo at an event Tuesday celebrating the 75th anniversary of NATO.

Enlarge / Heads of state pose for a group photo at an event Tuesday celebrating the 75th anniversary of NATO.

During their summit in Washington, DC, this week, NATO member states committed more than $1 billion to improve the sharing of intelligence from national and commercial reconnaissance satellites.

The agreement is a further step toward integrating space assets into NATO military commands. It follows the bloc’s adoption of an official space policy in 2019, which recognized space as a fifth war-fighting domain alongside air, land, maritime, and cyberspace. The next step was the formation of the NATO Space Operations Center in 2020 to oversee space support for NATO military operations.

On June 25, NATO announced the establishment of a “space branch” in its Allied Command Transformation, which identifies trends and incorporates emerging capabilities into the alliance’s security strategy.

Breaking down barriers

The new intelligence-sharing agreement was signed on July 9 by representatives from 17 NATO nations, including the United States, to support the Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) program. In a statement, NATO called the agreement “the largest multinational investment in space-based capabilities in NATO’s history.”

The agreement for open sharing of intelligence data comes against the backdrop of NATO’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Space-based capabilities, including battlefield surveillance and communications, have proven crucial to both sides in the war.

“The ongoing war in Ukraine has further underscored intelligence’s growing dependence on space-based data and assets,” NATO said.

The program will improve NATO’s ability to monitor activities on the ground and at sea with unprecedented accuracy and timeliness, the alliance said in a statement. The 17 parties to the agreement pledged more than $1 billion transition the program into an implementation phase over the next five years. Six of the 17 signatories currently operate or plan to launch their own national reconnaissance satellites, while several more nations are home to companies operating commercial space-based surveillance satellites.

The APSS program won’t involve the development and launch of any NATO spy satellites. Instead, each nation will make efforts to share observations from their own government and commercial satellites.

Luxembourg, one of the smallest NATO member states, set up the APSS program with an initial investment of roughly $18 million (16.5 million euros) in 2023. At the time, NATO called the program a “data-centric initiative” aimed at bringing together intelligence information for easier dissemination among allies and breaking down barriers of secrecy and bureaucracy.

“APSS is not about creating NATO-owned and operated space assets,” officials wrote in the program’s fact sheet. “It will make use of existing and future space assets in allied countries, and connect them together in a NATO virtual constellation called ‘Aquila.'”

Another element of the program involves processing and sharing intelligence information through cloud solutions and technologies. NATO said AI analytical tools will also better manage growing amounts of surveillance data from space, and ensure decision-makers get faster access to time-sensitive observations.

“The APSS initiative may be regarded as a game changer for NATO’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. It will largely contribute to build NATO’s readiness and reduce its dependency on other intelligence and surveillance capabilities,” said Ludwig Decamps, general manager of the NATO Communications and Information Agency.

NATO allies pledge $1 billion to promote sharing of space-based intel Read More »

google-makes-it-easier-for-users-to-switch-on-advanced-account-protection

Google makes it easier for users to switch on advanced account protection

Biz & IT, Google, multi factor authentication, passkeys, passwords, Security / /

APP MADE EASIER —

The strict requirement for two physical keys is now eased when passkeys are used.

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Google makes it easier for users to switch on advanced account protection

Getty Images

Google is making it easier for people to lock down their accounts with strong multifactor authentication by adding the option to store secure cryptographic keys in the form of passkeys rather than on physical token devices.

Google’s Advanced Protection Program, introduced in 2017, requires the strongest form of multifactor authentication (MFA). Whereas many forms of MFA rely on one-time passcodes sent through SMS or emails or generated by authenticator apps, accounts enrolled in advanced protection require MFA based on cryptographic keys stored on a secure physical device. Unlike one-time passcodes, security keys stored on physical devices are immune to credential phishing and can’t be copied or sniffed.

Democratizing APP

APP, short for Advanced Protection Program, requires the key to be accompanied by a password whenever a user logs into an account on a new device. The protection prevents the types of account takeovers that allowed Kremlin-backed hackers to access the Gmail accounts of Democratic officials in 2016 and go on to leak stolen emails to interfere with the presidential election that year.

Until now, Google required people to have two physical security keys to enroll in APP. Now, the company is allowing people to instead use two passkeys or one passkey and one physical token. Those seeking further security can enroll using as many keys as they want.

“We’re expanding the aperture so people have more choice in how they enroll in this program,” Shuvo Chatterjee, the project lead for APP, told Ars. He said the move comes in response to comments Google has received from some users who either couldn’t afford to buy the physical keys or lived or worked in regions where they’re not available.

As always, users must still have two keys to enroll to prevent being locked out of accounts if one of them is lost or broken. While lockouts are always a problem, they can be much worse for APP users because the recovery process is much more rigorous and takes much longer than for accounts not enrolled in the program.

Passkeys are the creation of the FIDO Alliance, a cross-industry group comprised of hundreds of companies. They’re stored locally on a device and can also be stored in the same type of hardware token storing MFA keys. Passkeys can’t be extracted from the device and require either a PIN or a scan of a fingerprint or face. They provide two factors of authentication: something the user knows—the underlying password used when the passkey was first generated—and something the user has—in the form of the device storing the passkey.

Of course, the relaxed requirements only go so far since users still must have two devices. But by expanding the types of devices needed,  APP becomes more accessible since many people already have a phone and computer, Chatterjee said.

“If you’re in a place where you can’t get security keys, it’s more convenient,” he explained. “This is a step toward democratizing how much access [users] get to this highest security tier Google offers.”

Despite the increased scrutiny involved in the recovery process for APP accounts, Google is renewing its recommendation that users provide a phone number and email address as backup.

“The most resilient thing to do is have multiple things on file, so if you lose that security key or the key blows up, you have a way to get back into your account,” Chatterjee said. He’s not providing the “secret sauce” details about how the process works, but he said it involves “tons of signals we look at to figure out what’s really happening.

“Even if you do have a recovery phone, a recovery phone by itself isn’t going to get you access to your account,” he said. “So if you get SIM swapped, it doesn’t mean someone gets access to your account. It’s a combination of various factors. It’s the summation of that that will help you on your path to recovery.”

Google users can enroll in APP by visiting this link.

Google makes it easier for users to switch on advanced account protection Read More »

openai-reportedly-nears-breakthrough-with-“reasoning”-ai,-reveals-progress-framework

OpenAI reportedly nears breakthrough with “reasoning” AI, reveals progress framework

agi, AI, AI classification, AI hype, AI ranking, Biz & IT, Bloomberg, chatgpt, chatgtp, machine learning, openai / /

studies in hype-otheticals —

Five-level AI classification system probably best seen as a marketing exercise.

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Illustration of a robot with many arms.

OpenAI recently unveiled a five-tier system to gauge its advancement toward developing artificial general intelligence (AGI), according to an OpenAI spokesperson who spoke with Bloomberg. The company shared this new classification system on Tuesday with employees during an all-hands meeting, aiming to provide a clear framework for understanding AI advancement. However, the system describes hypothetical technology that does not yet exist and is possibly best interpreted as a marketing move to garner investment dollars.

OpenAI has previously stated that AGI—a nebulous term for a hypothetical concept that means an AI system that can perform novel tasks like a human without specialized training—is currently the primary goal of the company. The pursuit of technology that can replace humans at most intellectual work drives most of the enduring hype over the firm, even though such a technology would likely be wildly disruptive to society.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has previously stated his belief that AGI could be achieved within this decade, and a large part of the CEO’s public messaging has been related to how the company (and society in general) might handle the disruption that AGI may bring. Along those lines, a ranking system to communicate AI milestones achieved internally on the path to AGI makes sense.

OpenAI’s five levels—which it plans to share with investors—range from current AI capabilities to systems that could potentially manage entire organizations. The company believes its technology (such as GPT-4o that powers ChatGPT) currently sits at Level 1, which encompasses AI that can engage in conversational interactions. However, OpenAI executives reportedly told staff they’re on the verge of reaching Level 2, dubbed “Reasoners.”

Bloomberg lists OpenAI’s five “Stages of Artificial Intelligence” as follows:

  • Level 1: Chatbots, AI with conversational language
  • Level 2: Reasoners, human-level problem solving
  • Level 3: Agents, systems that can take actions
  • Level 4: Innovators, AI that can aid in invention
  • Level 5: Organizations, AI that can do the work of an organization

A Level 2 AI system would reportedly be capable of basic problem-solving on par with a human who holds a doctorate degree but lacks access to external tools. During the all-hands meeting, OpenAI leadership reportedly demonstrated a research project using their GPT-4 model that the researchers believe shows signs of approaching this human-like reasoning ability, according to someone familiar with the discussion who spoke with Bloomberg.

The upper levels of OpenAI’s classification describe increasingly potent hypothetical AI capabilities. Level 3 “Agents” could work autonomously on tasks for days. Level 4 systems would generate novel innovations. The pinnacle, Level 5, envisions AI managing entire organizations.

This classification system is still a work in progress. OpenAI plans to gather feedback from employees, investors, and board members, potentially refining the levels over time.

Ars Technica asked OpenAI about the ranking system and the accuracy of the Bloomberg report, and a company spokesperson said they had “nothing to add.”

The problem with ranking AI capabilities

OpenAI isn’t alone in attempting to quantify levels of AI capabilities. As Bloomberg notes, OpenAI’s system feels similar to levels of autonomous driving mapped out by automakers. And in November 2023, researchers at Google DeepMind proposed their own five-level framework for assessing AI advancement, showing that other AI labs have also been trying to figure out how to rank things that don’t yet exist.

OpenAI’s classification system also somewhat resembles Anthropic’s “AI Safety Levels” (ASLs) first published by the maker of the Claude AI assistant in September 2023. Both systems aim to categorize AI capabilities, though they focus on different aspects. Anthropic’s ASLs are more explicitly focused on safety and catastrophic risks (such as ASL-2, which refers to “systems that show early signs of dangerous capabilities”), while OpenAI’s levels track general capabilities.

However, any AI classification system raises questions about whether it’s possible to meaningfully quantify AI progress and what constitutes an advancement (or even what constitutes a “dangerous” AI system, as in the case of Anthropic). The tech industry so far has a history of overpromising AI capabilities, and linear progression models like OpenAI’s potentially risk fueling unrealistic expectations.

There is currently no consensus in the AI research community on how to measure progress toward AGI or even if AGI is a well-defined or achievable goal. As such, OpenAI’s five-tier system should likely be viewed as a communications tool to entice investors that shows the company’s aspirational goals rather than a scientific or even technical measurement of progress.

OpenAI reportedly nears breakthrough with “reasoning” AI, reveals progress framework Read More »

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500 million-year-old fossil is the earliest branch of the spider’s lineage

arthropods, Biology, evolution, paleontology, Science, spiders / /

Creepy, but no longer crawly —

A local fossil collector in Morocco found the specimen decades ago.

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Image of a brown fossil with a large head and many body segments, embedded in a grey-green rock.

In the early 2000s, local fossil collector Mohamed ‘Ou Said’ Ben Moula discovered numerous fossils at Fezouata Shale, a site in Morocco known for its well-preserved fossils from the Early Ordovician period, roughly 480 million years ago. Recently, a team of researchers at the University of Lausanne (UNIL) studied 100 of these fossils and identified one of them as the earliest ancestor of modern-day chelicerates, a group that includes spiders, scorpions, and horseshoe crabs.

The fossil preserves the species Setapedites abundantis, a tiny animal that crawled and swam near the bottom of a 100–200-meter-deep ocean near the South Pole 478 million years ago. It was 5 to 10 millimeters long and fed on organic matter in the seafloor sediments. “Fossils of what is now known as S. abundantis have been found early on—one specimen mentioned in the 2010 paper that recognized the importance of this biota. However, this creature wasn’t studied in detail before simply because scientists focused on other taxa first,” Pierre Gueriau, one of the researchers and a junior lecturer at UNIL, told Ars Technica.

The study from Gueriau and his team is the first to describe S. abundantis and its connection to modern-day chelicerates (also called euchelicerates). It holds great significance, because “the origin of chelicerates has been one of the most tangled knots in the arthropod tree of life, as there has been a lack of fossils between 503 to 430 million years ago,” Gueriau added.

An ancestor of spiders

The study authors used X-ray scanners to reconstruct the anatomy of 100 fossils from the Fezouata Shale in 3D. When they compared the anatomical features of these ancient animals with those of chelicerates, they noticed several similarities between S. abundantis and various ancient and modern-day arthropods, including horseshoe crabs, scorpions, and spiders.

For instance, the nature and arrangement of the head appendages or ‘legs’ in S. abundantis were homologous with those of present-day horseshoe crabs and Cambrian arthropods that existed between 540 to 480 million years ago. Moreover, like spiders and scorpions, the organism exhibited body tagmosis, where the body is organized into different functional sections.

“Setapedites abundantis contributes to our understandings of the origin and early evolution of two key euchelicerate characters: the transition from biramous to uniramous prosomal appendages, and body tagmosis,” the study authors note.

Currently, two Cambrian-era arthropods, Mollisonia plenovenatrix and Habelia optata are generally considered the earliest ancestors of chelicerates (not all scientists accept this idea). Both lived around 500 million years ago. When we asked how these two differ from S. abundantis, Gueriau replied, “Habelia and Mollisonia represent at best early-branching lineages in the phylogenetic tree. While S. abundantis is found to represent, together with a couple of other fossils, the earliest branching lineage within chelicerates.”

This means Habelia and Mollisonia are relatives of the ancestors of modern-day chelicerates. On the other side, S. abundantis represents the first group that split after the chelicerate clade was established, making it the earliest member of the lineage. “These findings bring us closer to untangling the origin story of arthropods, as they allow us to fill the anatomical gap between Cambrian arthropods and early-branching chelicerates,” Gueriau told Ars Technica.

S. abundantis connects other fossils

The researchers faced many challenges during their study. For instance, the small size of the fossils made observations and interpretation complicated. They overcame this limitation by examining a large number of specimens—fortunately, S. abundantis fossils were abundant in the samples they studied. However, these fossils have yet to reveal all their secrets.

“Some of S. abundantis’ anatomical features allow for a deeper understanding of the early evolution of the chelicerate group and may even link other fossil forms, whose relationships are still highly debated, to this group,” Gueriau said. For instance, the study authors noticed a ventral protrusion at the rear of the organism. Such a feature is observed for the first time in chelicerates but is known in other primitive arthropods.

“This trait could thus bring together many other fossils with chelicerates and further resolve the early branches of the arthropod tree. So the next step for this research is to investigate deeper this feature on a wide range of fossils and its phylogenetic implications,” Gueriau added.

Nature Communications, 2023. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48013-w  (About DOIs)

Rupendra Brahambhatt is an experienced journalist and filmmaker. He covers science and culture news, and for the last five years, he has been actively working with some of the most innovative news agencies, magazines, and media brands operating in different parts of the globe.

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Rocket Report: Chinese firm suffers another failure; Ariane 6 soars in debut

rocket report, Science, Space / /
The Ariane 6 rocket takes flight for the first time on July 9, 2024.

Enlarge / The Ariane 6 rocket takes flight for the first time on July 9, 2024.

ESA – S. Corvaja

Welcome to Edition 7.02 of the Rocket Report! The highlight of this week was the hugely successful debut of Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket. They will address the upper stage issue, I am sure. Given Europe’s commitment to zero debris, stranding the second stage is not great. But for a debut launch of a large new vehicle, this was really promising.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Chinese launch company suffers another setback. Chinese commercial rocket firm iSpace suffered a launch failure late Wednesday in a fresh setback for the company, Space News reports. The four-stage Hyperbola-1 solid rocket lifted off from Jiuquan spaceport in the Gobi Desert at 7: 40 pm ET (23: 40 UTC) on Wednesday. Beijing-based iSpace later issued a release stating that the rocket’s fourth stage suffered an anomaly. The statement did not reveal the name nor nature of the payloads lost on the flight.

Early troubles are perhaps to be expected … Beijing Interstellar Glory Space Technology Ltd., or iSpace, made history in 2019 as the first privately funded Chinese company to reach orbit, with the solid-fueled Hyperbola-1. However the rocket suffered three consecutive failures following that feat. The company recovered with two successful flights in 2023 before the latest failure. The loss could add to reliability concerns over China’s commercial launch industry as it follows Space Pioneer’s recent catastrophic static-fire explosion. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Feds backtrack on former Firefly investor. A long, messy affair between US regulators and a Ukrainian businessman named Max Polyakov seems to have finally been resolved, Ars reports. On Tuesday, Polyakov’s venture capital firm Noosphere Venture Partners announced that the US government has released him and his related companies from all conditions imposed upon them in the run-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This decision comes more than two years after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States and the US Air Force forced Polyakov to sell his majority stake in the Texas-based launch company Firefly.

Not a spy … This rocket company was founded in 2014 by an engineer named Tom Markusic, who ran into financial difficulty as he sought to develop the Alpha rocket. Markusic had to briefly halt Firefly’s operations before Polyakov, a colorful and controversial Ukrainian businessman, swooped in and provided a substantial infusion of cash into the company. “The US government quite happily allowed Polyakov to pump $200 million into Firefly only to decide he was a potential spy just as the company’s first rocket was ready to launch,” Ashlee Vance, a US journalist who chronicled Polyakov’s rise, told Ars. It turns out, Polyakov wasn’t a spy.

The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s space reporting is to sign up for his newsletter, we’ll collect his stories in your inbox.

Pentagon ICBM costs soar. The price tag for the Pentagon’s next-generation nuclear-tipped Sentinel ICBMs has ballooned by 81 percent in less than four years, The Register reports. This triggered a mandatory congressional review. On Monday, the Department of Defense released the results of this review, with Under-secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante saying the Sentinel missile program met established criteria for being allowed to continue after his “comprehensive, unbiased review of the program.”

Trust us, the military says … The Sentinel project is the DoD’s attempt to replace its aging fleet of ground-based nuclear-armed Minuteman III missiles (first deployed in 1970) with new hardware. When it passed its Milestone B decision (authorization to enter the engineering and manufacturing phase) in September 2020, the cost was a fraction of the $141 billion the Pentagon now estimates Sentinel will cost, LaPlante said. To give that some perspective, the proposed annual budget for the Department of Defense for its fiscal 2025 is nearly $850 billion. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Rocket Report: Chinese firm suffers another failure; Ariane 6 soars in debut Read More »

scientists-built-real-life-“stillsuit”-to-recycle-astronaut-urine-on-space-walks

Scientists built real-life “stillsuit” to recycle astronaut urine on space walks

astronauts, Dune, Frank Herbert, human physiology, Science, Space, stillsuit / /
shot of Fremen woman in a stillsuit kneeling

Enlarge / The Fremen on Arrakis wear full-body “stillsuits” that recycle absorbed sweat and urine into potable water.

Warner Bros.

The Fremen who inhabit the harsh desert world of Arrakis in Frank Herbert’s Dune must rely on full-body “stillsuits” for their survival, which recycle absorbed sweat and urine into potable water. Now science fiction is on the verge of becoming science fact: Researchers from Cornell University have designed a prototype stillsuit for astronauts that will recycle their urine into potable water during spacewalks, according to a new paper published in the journal Frontiers in Space Technologies.

Herbert provided specific details about the stillsuit’s design when planetologist Liet Kynes explained the technology to Duke Leto Atreides I:

It’s basically a micro-sandwich—a high-efficiency filter and heat-exchange system. The skin-contact layer’s porous. Perspiration passes through it, having cooled the body … near-normal evaporation process. The next two layers … include heat exchange filaments and salt precipitators. Salt’s reclaimed. Motions of the body, especially breathing and some osmotic action provide the pumping force. Reclaimed water circulates to catchpockets from which you draw it through this tube in the clip at your neck… Urine and feces are processed in the thigh pads. In the open desert, you wear this filter across your face, this tube in the nostrils with these plugs to ensure a tight fit. Breathe in through the mouth filter, out through the nose tube. With a Fremen suit in good working order, you won’t lose more than a thimbleful of moisture a day…

The Illustrated Dune Encyclopedia interpreted the stillsuit as something akin to a hazmat suit, without the full face covering. In David Lynch’s 1984 film, Dune, the stillsuits were organic and very form-fitting compared to the book description, almost like a second skin. The stillsuits in Denis Villeneuve’s most recent film adaptations (Dune Part 1 and Part 2) tried to hew more closely to the source material, with “micro-sandwiches” of acrylic fibers and porous cottons and embedded tubes for better flexibility.

Dune, the stillsuits were organic and very form-fitting.” height=”401″ src=”https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/stillsuit2-640×401.jpg” width=”640″>

Enlarge / In David Lynch’s 1984 film, Dune, the stillsuits were organic and very form-fitting.

Universal Pictures

The Cornell team is not the first to try to build a practical stillsuit. Hacksmith Industries did a “one day build” of a stillsuit just last month, having previously tackled Thor’s Stormbreaker ax, Captain America’s electromagnetic shield, and a plasma-powered lightsaber, among other projects. The Hacksmith team dispensed with the icky urine and feces recycling aspects and focused on recycling sweat and moisture from breath.

Their version consists of a waterproof baggy suit (switched out for a more form-fitting bunny suit in the final version) with a battery-powered heat exchanger in the back. Any humidity condenses on the suit’s surface and drips into a bottle attached to a CamelBak bladder. There’s a filter mask attached to a tube that allows the wearer to breathe in filtered air, but it’s one way; the exhaled air is redirected to the condenser so the water content can be harvested into the CamelBak bladder and then sent back to the mask so the user can drink it. It’s not even close to achieving Herbert’s stated thimbleful a day in terms of efficiency since it mostly recycles moisture from sweat on the wearer’s back. But it worked.

Scientists built real-life “stillsuit” to recycle astronaut urine on space walks Read More »

german-navy-still-uses-8-inch-floppy-disks,-working-on-emulating-a-replacement

German Navy still uses 8-inch floppy disks, working on emulating a replacement

floppy disks, germany, Navy, Tech / /

Sailing away soon —

Four Brandenburg-class F123 warships employ floppies for data-acquisition systems.

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An example of an 8-inch floppy disk. It's unclear which brand disks the German Navy uses.

Enlarge / An example of an 8-inch floppy disk. It’s unclear which brand disks the German Navy uses.

Cromemco, CC BY-SA 4.0

The German Navy is working on modernizing its Brandenburg-class F123 frigates, which means ending their reliance on 8-inch floppy disks.

The F123 frigates use floppy disks for their onboard data acquisition (DAQ) systems, as noted by Tom’s Hardware on Thursday. Augen geradeaus!, a German defense and security policy blog by journalist Thomas Wiegold, notes that DAQs are important for controlling frigates, including power generation, “because the operating parameters have to be recorded,” per a Google translation. The ships themselves specialize in anti-submarine warfare and air defense.

Earlier this month, Augen geradeaus! spotted a tender for service published June 21 by Germany’s Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology, and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) to modernize the German Navy’s four F123 frigates. The ships were commissioned from October 1994 to December 1996. As noted by German IT news outlet Heise, the continued use of 8-inch floppies despite modern alternatives being available for years “has to do with the fact that established systems are considered more reliable.”

An F123 frigate.

Enlarge / An F123 frigate.

Saab

Rather than overhauling the entire DAQ, the government plans to develop and integrate an onboard emulation system to replace the floppy disks. This differs from the approach the US Air Force took. In 2019, the US military branch replaced the 8-inch floppies for storing data used for operating its intercontinental ballistic missile command, control, and communications network with SSDs.

The BAAINBw hired Saab for F123 updates. In July 2021, Saab announced winning a contract to “deliver and integrate new naval radars and fire control directors for and in the German Navy’s” F123s, with the work entailing “a new combat management system in order to completely overhaul the system currently in use on the F123, allowing a low risk integration of the new naval radars and fire control capabilities.” The Swedish company said the deal was worth about 4.6 billion SEK (about $436,748,840).

Per the BAAINBw’s tender, the replacement of the floppy disks is expected to start on October 1 and end July 31, 2025. F123 frigates are supposed to stay in service until F126s are available, which is expected to be between 2028 and 2031.

Further details, like how exactly Saab will replace the floppies, are confidential. As pointed out by Tom’s Hardware, there are various options for floppy disk emulation, such as devices from brands like Gotek that are popular among enthusiasts.

Floppies keep floppin’

For the typical person, floppy disks are obsolete, but government bodies with already established and successfully running systems in place have been much slower to abandon the old storage medium. Besides the German Navy and US Air Force, Japan only last month officially stopped using floppy disks in governmental systems. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency plans to use 5¼-inch floppies to help run San Francisco’s Muni Metro light rail system until 2030.

Various industries also continue using floppy disks to help run machines that have long been used, as Chuck E. Cheese did for animatronics as recently as 2023 and professional embroiderers do with embroidery machines.

German Navy still uses 8-inch floppy disks, working on emulating a replacement Read More »

nasa’s-flagship-mission-to-europa-has-a-problem:-vulnerability-to-radiation

NASA’s flagship mission to Europa has a problem: Vulnerability to radiation

europa clipper, Science, Space / /

Tripping transistors —

“What keeps me awake right now is the uncertainty.”

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An artist's illustration of the Europa Clipper spacecraft during a flyby close to Jupiter's icy moon.

Enlarge / An artist’s illustration of the Europa Clipper spacecraft during a flyby close to Jupiter’s icy moon.

The launch date for the Europa Clipper mission to study the intriguing moon orbiting Jupiter, which ranks alongside the Cassini spacecraft to Saturn as NASA’s most expensive and ambitious planetary science mission, is now in doubt.

The $4.25 billion spacecraft had been due to launch in October on a Falcon Heavy rocket from Kennedy Space Center in Florida. However, NASA revealed that transistors on board the spacecraft may not be as radiation-hardened as they were believed to be.

“The issue with the transistors came to light in May when the mission team was advised that similar parts were failing at lower radiation doses than expected,” the space agency wrote in a blog post Thursday afternoon. “In June 2024, an industry alert was sent out to notify users of this issue. The manufacturer is working with the mission team to support ongoing radiation test and analysis efforts in order to better understand the risk of using these parts on the Europa Clipper spacecraft.”

The moons orbiting Jupiter, a massive gas giant planet, exist in one of the harshest radiation environments in the Solar System. NASA’s initial testing indicates that some of the transistors, which regulate the flow of energy through the spacecraft, could fail in this environment. NASA is currently evaluating the possibility of maximizing the transistor lifetime at Jupiter and expects to complete a preliminary analysis in late July.

To delay or not to delay

NASA’s update is silent on whether the spacecraft could still make its approximately three-week launch window this year, which gets Clipper to the Jovian system in 2030.

Ars reached out to several experts familiar with the Clipper mission to gauge the likelihood that it would make the October launch window, and opinions were mixed. The consensus view was between a 40 to 60 percent chance of becoming comfortable enough with the issue to launch this fall. If NASA engineers cannot become confident with the existing setup, the transistors would need to be replaced.

The Clipper mission has launch opportunities in 2025 and 2026, but these could lead to additional delays. This is due to the need for multiple gravitational assists. The 2024 launch follows a “MEGA” trajectory, including a Mars flyby in 2025 and an Earth flyby in late 2026—Mars-Earth Gravitational Assist. If Clipper launches a year late, it would necessitate a second Earth flyby. A launch in 2026 would revert to a MEGA trajectory. Ars has asked NASA for timelines of launches in 2025 and 2026 and will update if they provide this information.

Another negative result of delays would be costs, as keeping the mission on the ground for another year likely would result in another few hundred million dollars in expenses for NASA, which would blow a hole in its planetary science budget.

NASA’s blog post this week is not the first time the space agency has publicly mentioned these issues with the metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor, or MOSFET. At a meeting of the Space Studies Board in early June, Jordan Evans, project manager for the Europa Clipper Mission, said it was his No. 1 concern ahead of launch.

“What keeps me awake at night”

“The most challenging thing we’re dealing with right now is an issue associated with these transistors, MOSFETs, that are used as switches in the spacecraft,” he said. “Five weeks ago today, I got an email that a non-NASA customer had done some testing on these rad-hard parts and found that they were going before (the specifications), at radiation levels significantly lower than what we qualified them to as we did our parts procurement, and others in the industry had as well.”

At the time, Evans said things were “trending in the right direction” with regard to the agency’s analysis of the issue. It seems unlikely that NASA would have put out a blog post five weeks later if the issue were still moving steadily toward a resolution.

“What keeps me awake right now is the uncertainty associated with the MOSFETs and the residual risk that we will take on with that,” Evans said in June. “It’s difficult to do the kind of low-dose rate testing in the timeframes that we have until launch. So we’re gathering as much data as we can, including from missions like Juno, to better understand what residual risk we might launch with.”

These are precisely the kinds of issues that scientists and engineers don’t want to find in the final months before the launch of such a consequential mission. The stakes are incredibly high—imagine making the call to launch Clipper only to have the spacecraft fail six years later upon arrival at Jupiter.

NASA’s flagship mission to Europa has a problem: Vulnerability to radiation Read More »