Author name: Tim Belzer

a-military-satellite-waiting-to-launch-with-ula-will-now-fly-with-spacex

A military satellite waiting to launch with ULA will now fly with SpaceX

For the second time in six months, SpaceX will deploy a US military satellite that was sitting in storage, waiting for a slot on United Launch Alliance’s launch schedule.

Space Systems Command, which oversees the military’s launch program, announced Monday that it is reassigning the launch of a Global Positioning System satellite from ULA’s Vulcan rocket to SpaceX’s Falcon 9. This satellite, designated GPS III SV-08 (Space Vehicle-08), will join the Space Force’s fleet of navigation satellites beaming positioning and timing signals for military and civilian users around the world.

The Space Force booked the Vulcan rocket to launch this spacecraft in 2023, when ULA hoped to begin flying military satellites on its new rocket by mid-2024. The Vulcan rocket is now scheduled to launch its first national security mission around the middle of this year, following the Space Force’s certification of ULA’s new launcher last month.

The “launch vehicle trade” allows the Space Force to launch the GPS III SV-08 satellite from Cape Canaveral, Florida, as soon as the end of May, according to a press release.

“Capability sitting on the ground”

With Vulcan now cleared to launch military missions, officials are hopeful ULA can ramp up the rocket’s flight cadence. Vulcan launched on two demonstration flights last year, and ULA eventually wants to launch Vulcan twice per month. ULA engineers have their work cut out for them. The company’s Vulcan backlog now stands at 89 missions, following the Space Force’s announcement last week of 19 additional launches awarded to ULA.

Last year, the Pentagon’s chief acquisition official for space wrote a letter to ULA’s ownersBoeing and Lockheed Martin—expressing concern about ULA’s ability to scale the manufacturing of the Vulcan rocket.

“Currently there is military satellite capability sitting on the ground due to Vulcan delays,” Frank Calvelli, the Pentagon’s chief of space acquisition, wrote in the letter.

Vulcan may finally be on the cusp of delivering for the Space Force, but there are several military payloads in the queue to launch on Vulcan before GPS III SV-08, which was complete and in storage at its Lockheed Martin factory in Colorado.

Col. Jim Horne, senior materiel leader of launch execution, said in a statement that the rocket swap showcases the Space Force’s ability to launch in three months from call-up, compared to the typical planning cycle of two years. “It highlights another instance of the Space Force’s ability to complete high-priority launches on a rapid timescale, which demonstrates the capability to respond to emergent constellation needs as rapidly as Space Vehicle readiness allows,” Horne said.

A military satellite waiting to launch with ULA will now fly with SpaceX Read More »

freedos-1.4-brings-new-fixes-and-features-to-modern-and-vintage-dos-based-pcs

FreeDOS 1.4 brings new fixes and features to modern and vintage DOS-based PCs

We’re used to updating Windows, macOS, and Linux systems at least once a month (and usually more), but people with ancient DOS-based PCs still get to join in the fun every once in a while. Over the weekend, the team that maintains FreeDOS officially released version 1.4 of the operating system, containing a list of fixes and updates that have been in the works since the last time a stable update was released in 2022.

FreeDOS creator and maintainer Jim Hall goes into more detail about the FreeDOS 1.4 changes here, and full release notes for the changes are here. The release has “a focus on stability” and includes an updated installer, new versions of common tools like fdisk, and format and the edlin text editor. The release also includes updated HTML Help files.

Hall talked with Ars about several of these changes when we interviewed him about FreeDOS in 2024. The team issued the first release candidate for FreeDOS 1.4 back in January.

As with older versions, the FreeDOS installer is available in multiple formats based on the kind of system you’re installing it on. For any “modern” PC (where “modern” covers anything that’s shipped since the turn of the millennium), ISO and USB installers are available for creating bootable CDs, DVDs, or USB drives. FreeDOS is also available for vintage systems as a completely separate “Floppy-Only Edition” that fits on 720KB, 1.44MB, or 1.2MB 5.25 and 3.5-inch floppy disks. This edition “contains a limited set of FreeDOS programs that are more useful on classic PC hardware” and, to conserve space, does not include any FreeDOS source code.

The standard install image includes all the files and utilities you need for a working FreeDOS install, and a separate “BonusCD” download is also available for those who want development tools, the OpenGEM graphical interface, and other tools.

FreeDOS 1.4 brings new fixes and features to modern and vintage DOS-based PCs Read More »

balatro-yet-again-subject-to-mods’-poor-understanding-of-“gambling”

Balatro yet again subject to mods’ poor understanding of “gambling”

Balatro is certainly habit-forming, but there’s nothing to be won or lost, other than time, by playing it. While the game has you using standard playing cards and poker hands as part of its base mechanics, it does not have in-app purchases, loot boxes, or any kind of online play or enticement to gambling, beyond the basics of risk and reward.

Yet many YouTube creators have had their Balatro videos set to the traffic-dropping “Age-restricted” status, allegedly due to “depictions or promotions of casino websites or apps,” with little recourse for appeal.

The Balatro University channel detailed YouTube’s recent concerns about “online gambling” in a video posted last weekend. Under policies that took effect March 19, YouTube no longer allows any reference to gambling sites or applications “not certified by Google.” Additionally, content with “online gambling content”—”excluding online sports betting and depictions of in-person gambling”—cannot be seen by anyone signed out of YouTube or registered as under 18 years old.

Balatro University’s primer on how more than 100 of his videos about Balatro suddenly became age-restricted.

“The problem is,” Balatro University’s host notes, “Balatro doesn’t have any gambling.” Balatro University reported YouTube placing age restrictions on 119 of his 606 videos, some of them having been up for more than a year. After receiving often confusingly worded notices from YouTube, the channel host filed 30 appeals, 24 of which were rejected. Some of the last messaging from YouTube to Balatro University, from likely outdated and improperly cross-linked guidance, implied that his videos were restricted because they show “harmful or dangerous activities that risk serious physical harm.”

Screen from the game Balatro, showing a pair hand with two

Balatro, while based on poker hands, involving chips and evoking some aspects of video poker or casinos, only has you winning money that buys you cards and upgrades in the game.

Credit: Playstack

Balatro, while based on poker hands, involving chips and evoking some aspects of video poker or casinos, only has you winning money that buys you cards and upgrades in the game. Credit: Playstack

Developer LocalThunk took to social network Bluesky with some exasperation. “Good thing we are protecting children from knowing what a 4 of a kind is and letting them watch CS case opening videos instead,” he wrote, referencing the popularity of videos showing Counter-Strike “cases” with weapon skins being opened.

Apparently Balatro videos are being rated 18+ on YouTube now for gambling

Good thing we are protecting children from knowing what a 4 of a kind is and letting them watch CS case opening videos instead

— localthunk (@localthunk.bsky.social) April 5, 2025 at 4: 39 PM

Balatro yet again subject to mods’ poor understanding of “gambling” Read More »

paramount-drops-action-packed-mission:-impossible—final-reckoning-trailer

Paramount drops action-packed Mission: Impossible—Final Reckoning trailer

Tom Cruise is back for what may (or may not) be his final turn as Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible—Final Reckoning.

After giving CinemaCon attendees a sneak peek last week, Paramount Pictures has publicly released the trailer for Mission: Impossible—The Final Reckoning, the eighth installment of the blockbuster spy franchise starring Tom Cruise as IMF agent Ethan Hunt, and a sequel to the events that played out in 2023’s Mission: Impossible—Dead Reckoning.

This may, or may not, end up being Cruise’s last film in the franchise; everyone’s being pretty cagey about that question. But the trailer certainly gives us everything we’ve come to expect from the Mission: Impossible films: high stakes, global political intrigue, and of course, lots and lots of spectacular stunt work, including Cruise hanging precariously mid-air from a 1930s Boeing Stearman biplane.

(Spoilers for Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning below.)

For those whose memory of Dead Reckoning‘s plot is dim, Hunt and his team became embroiled in a global chase to find the two keys capable of controlling a rogue sentient AI dubbed The Entity. Both were needed to unlock a chamber aboard a Russian stealth submarine that contained The Entity’s source code, so the possessor of those keys could control or (preferably) destroy the AI. Hunt managed to acquire the two keys and fled by paraglider, reuniting with his BFF and fellow field agent Benji (Simon Pegg), intending to complete the mission and shut down The Entity.

Given that Final Reckoning is a continuation of that film, naturally Cruise and Pegg aren’t the only returning cast members. Also reprising their roles are Ving Rhames as IMF computer technician Luther Stickell; Hayley Atwell as thief-turned-IMF agent Grace; Vanessa Kirby as black market arms dealer Alanna Mitsopolis (aka the White Widow); Esai Morales as Gabriel, an assassin who serves as The Entity’s liaison; Pom Klementieff as Gabriel’s fellow assassin who joined forces with Hunt after Gabriel betrayed her; Angela Bassett as former CIA director and now US President Erika Sloane; Henry Czerny as former IMF director Eugene Kittridge, who now heads the CIA; and Rolf Saxon as CIA analyst William Donloe.

Paramount drops action-packed Mission: Impossible—Final Reckoning trailer Read More »

newly-hatched-hummingbird-looks,-acts-like-a-toxic-caterpillar

Newly hatched hummingbird looks, acts like a toxic caterpillar

Further observation of the nest revealed that the female hummingbird had added to its hatchling’s caterpillar camouflage by lining the nest with hairy-looking material from the seeds of balsa trees. The researchers also noticed that, whenever they approached the nest to film, the chick would move its head upward and start shaking it sideways while its feathers stood on end. It was trying to make itself look threatening.

When the research team backed off, the hummingbird chick went back to laying low in its nest. They wondered whether it behaved this way with actual predators, but eventually saw a wasp known to prey on young hummingbirds creep close to the nest. The chick displayed the same behavior it had with humans, which succeeded in scaring the wasp off.

Falk determined that the feathers, color, and head-shaking were eerily similar to the larvae of moths in the Megalopygidae and Saturniidae families, which are also endemic to the region. They might not be the mirror image of a particular species, but they appear close enough that predators would consider themselves warned.

“The behavior of the white-necked jacobin, when approached by humans and a predatory wasp, resembles the sudden ‘thrashing’ or ‘jerking’ behavior exhibited by many caterpillars in response to disturbance, including in the habitat where this bird was found,” he said regarding the same study.

…now you don’t

Could there be an alternate explanation for this hummingbird cosplaying as a caterpillar? Maybe. The researchers think it’s possible that the long feathers that appear to mimic spines may have evolved as a form of crypsis, or camouflage that helps an organism blend in with its background. The balsa tree material that’s similar to the feathers obviously helped with this.

Newly hatched hummingbird looks, acts like a toxic caterpillar Read More »

wealthy-americans-have-death-rates-on-par-with-poor-europeans

Wealthy Americans have death rates on par with poor Europeans

“The findings are a stark reminder that even the wealthiest Americans are not shielded from the systemic issues in the US contributing to lower life expectancy, such as economic inequality or risk factors like stress, diet or environmental hazards,” lead study author Irene Papanicolas, a professor of health services, policy and practice at Brown, said in a news release.

The study looked at health and wealth data of more than 73,000 adults across the US and Europe who were 50 to 85 years old in 2010. There were more than 19,000 from the US, nearly 27,000 from Northern and Western Europe, nearly 19,000 from Eastern Europe, and nearly 9,000 from Southern Europe. For each region, participants were divided into wealth quartiles, with the first being the poorest and the fourth being the richest. The researchers then followed participants until 2022, tracking deaths.

The US had the largest gap in survival between the poorest and wealthiest quartiles compared to European countries. America’s poorest quartile also had the lowest survival rate of all groups, including the poorest quartiles in all three European regions.

While less access to health care and weaker social structures can explain the gap between the wealthy and poor in the US, it doesn’t explain the differences between the wealthy in the US and the wealthy in Europe, the researchers note. There may be other systemic factors at play that make Americans uniquely short-lived, such as diet, environment, behaviors, and cultural and social differences.

“If we want to improve health in the US, we need to better understand the underlying factors that contribute to these differences—particularly amongst similar socioeconomic groups—and why they translate to different health outcomes across nations,” Papanicolas said.

Wealthy Americans have death rates on par with poor Europeans Read More »

monkeys-are-better-yodelers-than-humans,-study-finds

Monkeys are better yodelers than humans, study finds

Monkey see, monkey yodel?

That’s how it works for humans, but when it comes to the question of yodeling animals, it depends on how you define yodeling, according to bioacoustician Tecumseh Fitch of the University of Vienna in Austria, who co-authored this latest paper. Plenty of animal vocalizations use repeated sudden changes in pitch (including birds), and a 2023 study found that toothed whales can produce vocal registers through their noses for echolocation and communication.

There haven’t been as many studies of vocal registers in non-human primates, but researchers have found, for example, that the “coo” call of the Japanese macaque is similar to a human falsetto; the squeal of a Syke monkey is similar to the human “modal” register; and the Diana monkey produces alarm calls that are similar to “vocal fry” in humans.

It’s known that non-human primates have something humans have lost over the course of evolution: very thin, light vocal membranes just above the vocal folds. Scientists have pondered the purpose of those membranes, and a 2022 study concluded that this membrane was crucial for producing sounds. The co-authors of this latest paper wanted to test their hypothesis that the membranes serve as an additional oscillator to enable such non-human primates to achieve the equivalent of human voice registers. That, in turn, would render them capable in principle of producing a wider range of calls—perhaps even a yodel.

The team studied many species, including black and gold howler monkeys, tufted capuchins, black-capped squirrel monkeys, and Peruvian spider monkeys. They took CT scans of excised monkey larynxes housed at the Japan Monkey Center, as well as two excised larynxes from tufted capuchin monkeys at Kyoto University. They also made live recordings of monkey calls at the La Senda Verde animal refuge in the Bolivian Andes, using non-invasive EGG to monitor vocal fold vibrations.

Monkeys are better yodelers than humans, study finds Read More »

employee-pricing-for-all,-tariffs-on-the-sticker:-oems-react-to-tariffs

Employee pricing for all, tariffs on the sticker: OEMs react to tariffs

So VW wants to make it clear to customers why some of its products are about to get more expensive, which it estimates will begin around April 22 or 23. It will do that by adding a new line to the Monroney sticker, with a line for the import fee added alongside the destination charge, according to a VW memo seen by Automotive News.

Send employees home

Around 3 million people work in the automotive industry in the US, and it’s hard to see how the sector will avoid job losses as it contracts, particularly once the parts tariff goes into effect. (Some parts can cross the US border more than once on their journey from raw material to finished component and will get much more expensive, especially as Canada and Mexico levy retaliatory tariffs of their own.)

Stellantis is having a rough time in North America, where its sales have fallen for the past seven consecutive quarters. Now, some of its workers in Michigan and Indiana are among the first to be idled due to the tariffs.

The company is laying off 900 workers temporarily at stamping, casting, and transmission plants as a result of idling production at factories in Windsor, Canada (where 4,500 employees are being sent home for two weeks), and Toluca, Mexico (where workers will still get paid but won’t assemble cars this month), according to a letter sent by Stellantis to employees, seen by Reuters.

We can expect more automakers to react in the coming days, but the full effects will be delayed as automakers and their dealerships run down existing inventory, which may take a couple of months. One thing is clear: It will be an even lousier time to buy a new vehicle, the prices of which have already been elevated by 25 percent since the pandemic of 2020.

Employee pricing for all, tariffs on the sticker: OEMs react to tariffs Read More »

not-just-signal:-michael-waltz-reportedly-used-gmail-for-government-messages

Not just Signal: Michael Waltz reportedly used Gmail for government messages

National Security Advisor Michael Waltz and a senior aide used personal Gmail accounts for government communications, according to a Washington Post report published yesterday.

Waltz has been at the center of controversy for weeks because he inadvertently invited The Atlantic Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat in which top Trump administration officials discussed a plan for bombing Houthi targets in Yemen. Yesterday’s report of Gmail use and another recent report on additional Signal chats raise more questions about the security of sensitive government communications in the Trump administration.

A senior Waltz aide used Gmail “for highly technical conversations with colleagues at other government agencies involving sensitive military positions and powerful weapons systems relating to an ongoing conflict,” The Washington Post wrote.

The Post said it reviewed the emails. “While the NSC official used his Gmail account, his interagency colleagues used government-issued accounts, headers from the email correspondence show,” the report said.

Waltz himself “had less sensitive, but potentially exploitable information sent to his Gmail, such as his schedule and other work documents, said officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe what they viewed as problematic handling of information,” the report said. “The officials said Waltz would sometimes copy and paste from his schedule into Signal to coordinate meetings and discussions.”

Separately, The Wall Street Journal described additional Signal chats in a report on Sunday about Waltz losing support inside the White House. “Two US officials also said that Waltz has created and hosted multiple other sensitive national-security conversations on Signal with cabinet members, including separate threads on how to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine as well as military operations. They declined to address if any classified information was posted in those chats,” the WSJ wrote.

We contacted the White House about the reported use of Gmail and Signal today and will update this article if we get a response.

Not just Signal: Michael Waltz reportedly used Gmail for government messages Read More »

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AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50%

Crawlers that evade detection

Making the situation more difficult, many AI-focused crawlers do not play by established rules. Some ignore robots.txt directives. Others spoof browser user agents to disguise themselves as human visitors. Some even rotate through residential IP addresses to avoid blocking, tactics that have become common enough to force individual developers like Xe Iaso to adopt drastic protective measures for their code repositories.

This leaves Wikimedia’s Site Reliability team in a perpetual state of defense. Every hour spent rate-limiting bots or mitigating traffic surges is time not spent supporting Wikimedia’s contributors, users, or technical improvements. And it’s not just content platforms under strain. Developer infrastructure, like Wikimedia’s code review tools and bug trackers, is also frequently hit by scrapers, further diverting attention and resources.

These problems mirror others in the AI scraping ecosystem over time. Curl developer Daniel Stenberg has previously detailed how fake, AI-generated bug reports are wasting human time. On his blog, SourceHut’s Drew DeVault highlight how bots hammer endpoints like git logs, far beyond what human developers would ever need.

Across the Internet, open platforms are experimenting with technical solutions: proof-of-work challenges, slow-response tarpits (like Nepenthes), collaborative crawler blocklists (like “ai.robots.txt“), and commercial tools like Cloudflare’s AI Labyrinth. These approaches address the technical mismatch between infrastructure designed for human readers and the industrial-scale demands of AI training.

Open commons at risk

Wikimedia acknowledges the importance of providing “knowledge as a service,” and its content is indeed freely licensed. But as the Foundation states plainly, “Our content is free, our infrastructure is not.”

The organization is now focusing on systemic approaches to this issue under a new initiative: WE5: Responsible Use of Infrastructure. It raises critical questions about guiding developers toward less resource-intensive access methods and establishing sustainable boundaries while preserving openness.

The challenge lies in bridging two worlds: open knowledge repositories and commercial AI development. Many companies rely on open knowledge to train commercial models but don’t contribute to the infrastructure making that knowledge accessible. This creates a technical imbalance that threatens the sustainability of community-run platforms.

Better coordination between AI developers and resource providers could potentially resolve these issues through dedicated APIs, shared infrastructure funding, or more efficient access patterns. Without such practical collaboration, the platforms that have enabled AI advancement may struggle to maintain reliable service. Wikimedia’s warning is clear: Freedom of access does not mean freedom from consequences.

AI bots strain Wikimedia as bandwidth surges 50% Read More »

the-timeless-genius-of-a-1980s-atari-developer-and-his-swimming-salmon-masterpiece

The timeless genius of a 1980s Atari developer and his swimming salmon masterpiece

Williams’ success with APX led him to create several games for Synapse Software, including the beloved Alley Cat and the incomprehensible fantasy masterpiece Necromancer, before moving to the Amiga, where he created the experimental Mind Walker and his ambitious “cultural simulation” Knights of the Crystallion.

Necromancer, Williams’ later creation for the Atari 800, plays like a fever dream—you control a druid fighting off spiders while growing magic trees and battling an undead wizard. It makes absolutely no sense by conventional standards, but it’s brilliant in its otherworldliness.

“The first games that I did were very hard to explain to people and they just kind of bought it on faith,” Williams said in a 1989 interview with YAAM (Yet Another Amiga Magazine), suggesting this unconventional approach started early. That willingness to create deeply personal, almost surreal experiences defined Williams’ work throughout his career.

An Atari 800 (the big brother of the Atari 400) that Benj Edwards set up to play M.U.L.E. at his mom's house in 2015, for nostalgia purposes.

An Atari 800 that Benj Edwards set up to play M.U.L.E. at his mom’s house in 2015, for nostalgia purposes. Credit: Benj Edwards

After a brief stint making licensed games (like Bart’s Nightmare) for the Super Nintendo at Sculptured Software, he left the industry entirely to pursue his calling as a pastor, attending seminary in Chicago with his wife Martha, before declining health forced him to move to Rockport, Texas. Perhaps reflecting on the choices that led him down this path, Williams had noted years earlier in that 1989 interview, “Sometimes in this industry we tend to forget that life is a lot more interesting than computers.”

Bill Williams died on May 28, 1998, one day before his 38th birthday. He died young, but he outlived his doctors’ prediction that he wouldn’t reach age 13, and created cultural works that stand the test of time. Like Sam the Salmon, Williams pushed forward relentlessly—in his case, creating powerful digital art that was uniquely his own.

In our current era of photorealistic graphics and cinematic game experiences, Salmon Run‘s blocky pixels might seem quaint. But its core themes—persistence, natural beauty, and finding purpose against long odds—remain as relevant as ever. We all face bears in life—whether they come from natural adversity or from those who might seek to do us harm. The beauty of Williams’ game is in showing us that, despite their menacing presence, there’s still a reward waiting upstream for those willing to keep swimming.

If you want to try Salmon Run, you can potentially play it in your browser through an emulated Atari 800, hosted on The Internet Archive. Press F1 to start the game.

The timeless genius of a 1980s Atari developer and his swimming salmon masterpiece Read More »

housing-roundup-#11

Housing Roundup #11

The book of March 2025 was Abundance. Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson are making a noble attempt to highlight the importance of solving America’s housing crisis the only way it can be solved: Building houses in places people want to live, via repealing the rules that make this impossible. They also talk about green energy abundance, and other places besides. There may be a review coming.

Until then, it seems high time for the latest housing roundup, which as a reminder all take place in the possible timeline where AI fails to be transformative any time soon.

The incoming administration issued an executive order calling for ‘emergency price relief’‘ including pursuing appropriate actions to: Lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply’ and then a grab bag of everything else.

It’s great to see mention of expanding housing supply, but I don’t see real intent. This is mostly just Trump saying lower all the costs, increase all the supplies, during a barrage of dozens of such orders. If you have 47 priorities you have no priorities.

If you want to do real work on housing at the Federal level, you need an actual plan.

My 501c3 Balsa Research ultimately plans to make federal housing policy a future point of focus, once it is done with the Jones Act, and lately with (alas) defending against the Trump Administration’s attempts to impose new shipping restrictions that could outright cripple America’s exports by applying similar rules to international trade as well.

I do think there are some promising things to explore, even if the Trump administration is not willing to strongarm states. In particular and as an example without going into too much detail, the Federal Government has a lot of control over mortgage availability. Currently, they are using this in ways that handicap manufactured housing, whereas they could instead use it to reward innovation and new construction, such as by refusing to count house value that is the result of NIMBY building restrictions and the resulting shortages. Another example is that they could universalize a reasonable building code to do away with things like dual staircase requirements.

Alas, this Administration’s true priorities very clearly lie elsewhere. But at least they want to build more housing rather than less housing. Being directionally correct is far better than their position in other places of actively being against growth and trade.

Rent control proposition 33 fails in California, 61%-38%. No news is good news.

So this is really weird, Berkeley landlords passed through the majority of their property tax burdens? As Sarah Baker notes, standard economic theory says this should not happen. What you owe in taxes has nothing to do with the market value of the property. Yet she finds strong evidence that it happens. The speculation is a model of ‘landlord sophistication’ which I presume is a polite way of saying mispricing?

Which in turn is saying that rents are massively inefficient, because landlords are not anything like efficient profit maximizers, potentially more like low information satisficers in many cases. Weird, and I suppose evidence that tools to learn the ‘proper market rent’ could indeed have a large impact.

One cannot stress this enough. If you want lower rents, build more housing.

We’ve been over this, and you can make complicated arguments, but: Supply, meet demand, how is this even a question, sigh. Also, Studies Show.

Angry Psulib: Pittsburgh’s Deputy Mayor Jake Pawlak: new housing makes the rent of older apartments go up. Also, filtering is fake and only benefits transplants.

Nolan Gray: There is simply no evidence that new housing construction increases local rents, and a growing body of decent evidence that it actually lowers them. People in positions of power should prioritize evidence over vibes.

[shares paper, Local Effects of Large New Apartment Buildings in Low-Income Areas.]

From Paper Abstract: We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease rents in nearby units by about 6% relative to units slightly farther away or near sites developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas.

We show that new buildings absorb many high-income households and increase the local housing stock substantially. If buildings improve nearby amenities, the effect is not large enough to increase rents.

Nolan Gray: Pittsburgh is yet another case of how poor local Democratic governance is undermining national Democratic prospects: it’s a blue island in a newly-red state, where the most recent election was decided by just a little over 100,000 votes…

A supermajority of households that would move into new apartments in Pittsburgh (or State College, or Philadelphia) would probably vote Democratic. If these places built commensurate to demand, Pennsylvania would probably be back to solid blue. And yet!

Angry Psulib: Amazingly enough, he was shown this exact study and admitted he hasn’t read it earlier this month. I guess he still hasn’t bothered to read it?

Here’s another study: The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents, from Andreas Mense in October 2024.

Abstract: I estimate the impact of new housing supply on the local rent distribution, exploiting delays in housing completions caused by weather shocks. A 1% increase in new supply (i) lowers average rents by 0.19%, (ii) effectively reduces rents of lower-quality units, and (iii) disproportionately increases the number of second- hand units available for rent.

Moreover, the impact on rents is equally strong in high-demand markets. Employing a quantitative model, I explain these results by second-hand supply: New supply triggers moving chains that free up units in all market segments.

The estimate translates into a short-run demand price elasticity of -0.025.

Or there’s the very practical real world experimental results, such as:

Cyrus Tehrani: An Austin renter’s renewal offer is $200/month lower than what she’s currently paying.

We’ve always said building more housing makes *existinghousing more affordable, and that’s what’s happening in Austin.

The reason we don’t build those new buildings is we have decided not to build them.

Armand Domalewski: France rebuilt fucking NOTRE DAME faster and cheaper than it takes San Francisco to add a rapid bus lane.

Philippe Lemoine: It’s worth noting that, in order to make it possible to rebuild the cathedral so quickly, the French parliament had to vote a special law that effectively exempted the project from most of the regulations that would have normally applied and slowed it down considerably.

Ste.Respect: Can they vote for this law for every other development?

Philippe Lemoine: Some people in France are arguing for that, and I think there is a lot to the idea, although it’s unrealistic to think exactly the same thing should or could be replicated everywhere.

It’s not just about safety but also stuff like impact on the neighborhood, the obligation to perform certain archeological searches, etc. To be clear, I think a lot of those regulations should be eliminated or reduced, but this couldn’t be fully generalized realistically.

We certainly have the necessary space:

Roon: But you know you should ask yourself why people around the world consider Paris exceptionally beautiful and Houston an ugly eyesore, and what you think about allowing denser construction?

This was not an endorsement of density.

I’m pointing out that most Americans lack taste and will continue to make their cities worse with shoddy construction, and the YIMBY movement would be ten times easier if developers and planners acquired some taste.

Vitalik: Someone should figure out explicit, credible, neutral market incentives for aesthetics. For example, have a “hot or not” game where people are shown random buildings and upvote or downvote them; your property tax is proportional to the percentage of downvotes your building receives.

Let’s make this fun.

Roon: Yes, I very much agree. There’s gotta be something in the mechanism design space that doesn’t rely on unaccountable planners with full veto power.

Aesthetics are an obvious externality issue. If you create a beautiful thing, you capture only a small portion of the gains. So we want a way to financially reward beautiful and punish ugly, as measured by what is around them, in order to motivate better choices in the future. What people actually think seems like an excellent way to do that.

You don’t want to a NIMBY-style veto system. You want financial incentives that generate a race to the top. Indeed, if we want beautiful, this is only half the battle. The other half is we have to make such places actually legal to build.

I am confident that cities that implement this will benefit greatly. But you need a way to judge aesthetics that actually rewards good over bad.

Which is not our custom, because…

It’s a bold claim and of course it’s not actually correct. There are plenty of things that planners are uncontroversially correct about. You don’t notice those things. But also there’s a lot of things they do that are purely shooting the city in the foot for no gain.

Aaron Lubeck: Modern architecture gives “fit, life has no meaning” vibes.

Atlanticesque: This is actually just straightforwardly the result of “anti-massing” regulations.

Zoning codes in cities across America mandate that buildings not be too great of a single mass, it must be “de-massed” and “broken up” into different shapes and materials.

Always looks like s.

Maxwell Tabarrok: I think it’s underrated the extent to which urban planners are just wrong about everything.

Wide avenues, setbacks, light-cones, de-massing, Floor Area Ratios, urban growth boundaries, etc

They’re just wrong about what makes a city nice.

Patrick McKenzie: A piece of evidence in favor: look how much of the built environment that is believed would be illegal. (Or if one really wanted to grind gears: compare number of dollars planners spend on travel to noncompliant cities versus fully compliant cities.)

Nate Hood: I have a degree in planning, work in field & serve on Planning Committee AND fully agree with this. Planning is its own worst enemy In its defense: it’s very politicized at local level & usually it’s electeds leaders who make the decisions, while planners merely enact them.

Ddjiii: I think you’re 30 years late. Planning as a profession mostly got over this a long time ago. But zoning documents and public officials have not necessarily adjusted.

It’s nice to hear the claim that planning the profession has figured out it got all these things wrong, but what good is that if the wrong things keep getting implemented? What is planning planning to try and fix our planning planning?

Blackstone is investing in buying up houses and renting them out.

There are insane claims going around that Blackstone is somehow intentionally having a massive effect on housing prices by doing this.

Instead, as any economist would tell you, the effects here are very small.

This is mentioned here partly to clear up that confusion in case anyone was misled, but mainly as a clear case of a journalist pushing a certain kind of narrative, and how they react when it is pointed out.

Paul Graham: I don’t think I’ve ever seen a journalist with less respect for the truth than this Jacobin writer. And that’s saying something, because I’ve seen some journalists with *verylittle respect for the truth.

In the movies I watched as a kid, the bad guys were always businessmen, and the journalists were always good guys. I was very surprised when I realized it wasn’t actually like this in the real world. But you can see it happening right here.

It is rather insane that a claim that Blackstone owns a third of American housing made it to publication. That claim makes absolutely zero sense on any level.

Logan Mohtashami: At my last conference, I ran into a Black[stone] is buying all the homes, dude. Oh, it was a fun rebuttal

The actual figure is Blackstone owns 0.07% of American housing stock, so it is off by about four orders of magnitude. They have essentially zero market power.

I got this interesting pushback last time:

Sysipheus: I want to push back about the limited effect of collaborating software. I’m a landlord in FL and watched it show up a few years ago to dramatic effect. Personal anecdote aside, I think it’s a mistake to ignore the impact of in-group cooperation on price discovery, especially in a market with inelastic demand. OPEC only lowered supply by 15% in the 70’s.

Additionally, I’m not even certain that improving the efficiency of the market is a net good. I am tentatively convinced that having some slack in the housing market is a positive. Slack facilitates price discrimination from unsophisticated actors and lets the truly price conscience find bargains. The additional cost of transactions is offset by the long duration of the agreements. (I could be convinced otherwise)

No question the software leads to less variation in pricing, cutting down on underpricing and also on overpricing. This means less time on average spent with each unit on the market, and less time spent by prospective tenants searching since returns to search are lower. Also note that, by lowering search costs, you lower the ability of the landlord to hold up the tenant by threatening to force them to move, and give both sides in that negotiation much better information on market conditions – worst case the tenant can simply look at a few similar places on the market.

I don’t see the OPEC parallel, given supply if anything should be entering the market rather than leaving it, as this makes it easier to be a low-information landlord.

The question raised here is, could it be good to have the old inefficient rent pricing, despite all that, because it allows valuable price discrimination?

I can see the argument if I squint. Those who have high willingness to pay end up with higher rent, and this subsidizes people who need a bargain allowing the bargain hunters to live where they wouldn’t otherwise be able to afford to rent?

That depends on what determines elasticity of supply. If landlords can collectively respond to the ability to price discriminate by building more housing, since there’s now more overall demand and some pay higher prices, then plausibly that can be worth a lot. But if all this does is change the distribution of tenants and prices, then it seems very hard for that to justify the additional transaction costs.

We shouldn’t underestimate those transaction costs. When I rented an apartment in New York City, which I did several times, I effectively lost multiple weeks each time.

Immigration does raise housing costs in the places you artificially constrain the supply of housing, since you add to demand and hold supply fixed.

Which tempts you to compound your mistake, rather than realize you should stop restricting supply. Where supply isn’t restricted, immigration if anything is net helpful, as they disproportionately help build the new houses and they do it while on average buying less house.

Chris Frieman: Notice that no one thinks that immigration makes it more difficult for people to buy cars, phones, food, etc.—the discussion always focuses on housing. So the takeaway should be that there is a problem with the housing supply, not immigration.

We do have to face the reality here. Supply in many places is restricted. So this is currently a small downside to immigration, with gains captured by landlords.

We could turn this back into a win-win by imposing a property tax, or better yet a tax on the unimproved value of land, in addition the obvious ‘let people build houses where people want to live’ solution.

Black households prefer to live in lower-SES (socioeconomic status) neighborhoods with black residents, rather than living in higher-SES neighborhoods without black residents, even when they are relatively high SES themselves. There are any number of plausible explanations for this preference.

Living in higher-SES neighborhoods costs more money in various ways, so this is not without its advantages. The period when I lived in Warwick allowed a dramatic cut in my living expenses – if I preferred that lifestyle, it would be very good for capital accumulation. It was not without its charms.

Why do people so often assume that everyone will spend whatever they can afford on housing and other consumption? You don’t want to be moving on up purely because you can, says the man very happy to live in the middle of Manhattan.

Thinking of moving to a more productive area? Beware, the real estate premium likely eats you alive. Here’s the abstract of a new paper, note the last line:

We use data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program to study the causal effects of location on earnings. Starting from a model with employer and employee fixed effects, we estimate the average earnings premiums associated with jobs in different commuting zones (CZs) and different CZ-industry pairs.

About half of the variation in mean wages across CZs is attributable to differences in worker ability (as measured by their fixed effects); the other half is attributable to place effects.

We show that the place effects from a richly specified cross sectional wage model overstate the causal effects of place (due to unobserved worker ability), while those from a model that simply adds person fixed effects understate the causal effects (due to unobserved heterogeneity in the premiums paid by different firms in the same CZ).

Local industry agglomerations are associated with higher wages, but overall differences in industry composition and in CZ-specific returns to industries explain only a small fraction of average place effects. Estimating separate place effects for college and non-college workers, we find that the college wage gap is bigger in larger and higher-wage places, but that two-thirds of this variation is attributable to differences in the relative skills of the two groups in different places. Most of the remaining variation reflects the enhanced sorting of more educated workers to higher-paying industries in larger and higher-wage CZs.

Finally, we find that local housing costs at least fully offset local pay premiums, implying that workers who move to larger CZs have no higher net-of-housing consumption.

This ignores the skill and talent enhancement aspect of moving CZs. It presumes worker ability is fixed, whereas worker ability improves over time when among higher ability workers in a high opportunity area. So even if your consumption did not increase short term, you would still want to capture those gains, and also the additional housing costs come with access to a superior area.

Also if you see comparatively larger gains from moving, especially as a ratio of housing requirements, you come out ahead that way as well. Society of course overall gains greatly when you move up the ranks, even if you don’t come out ahead directly.

Mostly this says that our most productive areas are greatly undersupplying housing, in case that wasn’t already obvious.

It also says that people are responding roughly correctly to the incentives involved.

Sophia: Anyone looking for a single bedroom with no heating where you can’t make noise and can only be home from 8: 30pm to 8am (weekdays only)? Here’s one for a bargain (£1350)!!!

Completely real btw.

Oh my god the landlord has twitter, please get this to her.

She’s seen this! She’s now claiming she doesn’t have a living room at all!

She bought the flat for £686k in 2021 by the way, she just wants a tenant to pay off a large chunk of her mortgage while not really living there at all.

Some poor soul is going to move in not having seen the original ad and be made to feel like an intruder for being in their home on a Saturday.

Alice! We know you’re reading this! Drop the rent!!!!

What else can we shame Alice into including in the rent?

Ok we had our fun but the Daily Mail turning up at her flat? That’s not ok guys wtf

Aella: I hate this genre of public shaming. If she put the price too high above the market, nobody will rent it, and she’ll have to lower the price until someone does. This seems fine. People should be allowed to price things too high and have nobody buy their thing

Divia Eden: IMO it’s a lot like free speech!

Some people (like that xkcd comic) say that prices should be legal but that it’s fine and good to shame people etc for their pricing practices

Others (I’m one) want more than just legal prices—we want a culture of being chill about prices

Various people said ‘oh that’s not shaming that’s complaining about housing costs in London’ and I would have agreed if it was only Sophia’s OP but then she kept going, including making claims that simply aren’t true – Alice is very nicely warning in advance about the noise, not saying the person wouldn’t be able to be at home at any given time.

Study in Amsterdam finds that most of the impact of prostitution on housing prices is extremely local and based on visibility. Being 300 yards away wiped out most effects. Making the brothels close their windows also wiped out most effects. A quarter of the effect was due to crime, the rest to the open windows. Effect seemed modestly larger than I expected.

This totally fits with my model of major cities as a game of ‘good block bad block.’ If it’s out of sight, mostly you don’t have to care. Also, having access to the bad block has its advantages. I imagine that for many, the ideal distance from the red light district is ‘far enough you don’t worry about crime or the lights in your face, and no farther.’

One’s own access to the related services could be net good or net bad, but it sounds like the net impact here is minimal. I suspect that is people making a mistake. It is well known that exact distance makes a big difference for things like parks and restaurants, and I would expect that to apply here as well. Except it is entirely non-obvious which direction this should go.

There are a lot of trends of this type these days: People place tons of value on top quality, and we have the wealth to bid it up quite high, while what used to be the Perfectly Good version lies unused.

John Arnold: There’s both a shortage of office space (Class A+/A) and a surplus of office space (everything else) at the same time. I see it in Houston where many new buildings are under construction at the same time the city has a 26% office vacancy rate

Claude thinks this is mostly about location and other practical stuff, like temperature controls and elevators that work well, and keeping the building clean and safe. There’s a lot of marginal value in all that.

The explanation for B-level buildings going unused is various bank loan covenants and obligations, tax advantages to keeping the place empty and general downward price stickiness in real estate. We can and should of course reverse the unintended tax incentives for places being empty – we should if anything punish, not reward, leaving the place idle.

By default, high-rises include mostly one and two bedroom apartments, and don’t offer the amenities that make them good places to raise children.

But is that necessarily the case? What would it take to make a high-rise that was good for families with kids? Matt Yglesias calls for a modern high-rise for families.

I think if you designed a high-rise with this in mind, you could offer tremendous value. You can build the entire place, from the beginning, with this goal in mind.

The obvious place to start is to make the whole building larger apartments designed for families. That means floor plans more bedrooms, with the secondary bedrooms relatively small, plus a large common area, with multiple bathrooms.

Simply having most of your neighbors have children will change norms dramatically. It would be far easier to make friends, to strike up conversations and so on.

The next step is to add various communal areas for the families. This starts with an enclosed courtyard or other safe outdoor space, and a designed-to-be-safe roof. You can go from there, with various gym and sports areas, play areas, gaming areas and so on. Throw in some family friendly restaurants so you can go there without leaving the building. Giving up a small percentage of overall floor space is a big deal.

The killer app, of course, is childcare. If it’s a big enough courtyard, you can have an adult there, same with the roof, and you can offer places where families can park their kids and pay by the hour. Maybe even have various styles, including a homework help room, tutoring, activities like chess and so on. You can even have a pool of building-based babysitters and even tutors that can be reserved or often requested on demand, including for short periods. You can use dynamic pricing for busy versus quiet times.

The lifestyle impact there would be huge – if you have on-demand options for 1-2 hours of childcare, or even 15 minutes, at reasonable prices, it is a huge freaking deal. If you have activities readily available that also create natural friendships through repeat interactions? Wow.

This seriously seems like an amazing business opportunity. If you made the first such building in Manhattan or another major city, there are those who would jump at it, and pay quite a lot more for the same amount of apartment than they would otherwise.

Group houses are insanely great if you can pull them off. It’s great to live with your friends. It’s great to pool costs and common areas, the economics are terrific. The trick is it requires coordination. Coordination is hard. If you can pull it off, totally go for it. Why not? Yes, privacy, and eventually you’ll want space for a family, but housing is a huge portion of expenses, and friends are golden.

GOOPert Gottfried: I just saw a Zillow commercial that suggested millennials go in on buying a house with 2 friends. Since when did the American dream include a white picket fence and 2 roommates?

Danielle Franz: When I was in my early 20s, my group chat bullied (half kidding) one of our friends into buying a house with the promise that we would move in and cover the mortgage during the time that we lived there.

It worked out great — friend had their mortgage covered 100% for a few years and we got rent that was way more affordable than anywhere else.

We made amazing memories together during an oftentimes lonely and confusing period of life and our $$ directly benefited someone we loved rather than a faceless landlord.

It’s definitely not for everyone, but I wouldn’t write it off so quickly.

This is also a great reason to encourage greater supply of larger houses and apartments, thus enabling more such arrangements.

California has effectively made it illegal to profitably offer insurance via charging enough money to cover expected payouts. Slowly insurance companies are figuring this out and packing their bags.

KLTA: 2 more insurance companies announce plans to leave California

Houman Hemmati: I don’t think most people quite yet grasp the monumental significance of the sudden collapse of nearly the entire state insurance industry in California. There is one entity responsible: state government. Without insurance you can’t purchase or own anything unless you’re very rich or a big corporation. This will have tremendous ramifications for everyone here. Stay tuned.

Don’t Fall For It: I am selling my current home which is a much higher fire risk than the home I am moving into. All of the large insurance companies will not insure me. It’s a nightmare, I’ve never had a claim. I ended up getting a policy – double the premium.

Lord Pope Misha XIV: eh you can still totally own a house it’s just like in the past where if it burns down you are ruined.

Joel Grus: well, I don’t think you can get a mortgage without homeowners insurance.

Telling insurance companies they cannot set or raise prices works until it doesn’t. What people are complaining about is that they want to purchase assets and be insured against potential losses, and they want someone else to pay for the real cost of covering those losses in exchange for a smaller amount of money.

That someone is going to have to be the State of California (or another state like Florida, as appropriate). The people still have to foot that bill, somehow.

This is an extraction of rents by existing owners of risky properties, and those who construct new risky properties, at the expense of everyone else. If the full real cost of insurance had to be paid or the risk accepted, then the value of the property would decline accordingly, so those buying anew would break even.

Our fair city is poised to allow 6-story buildings citywide by an 8-1 vote. In context that is a huge change. Under the old rules only 350 units (!) total were expected over 15 years and 85%+ of the existing housing wouldn’t have been legal to build. Here’s a primer on the changes. They had to compromise a bit on setbacks and lot size to get it over the finish line, but it still seems great.

Six stories is below what you’d want in some places, but it’s a huge step up here, and you can get remarkably dense with that alone.

Denver legalizes ADUs in neighborhoods citiwide as Governor Polis cheers them on.

The Ameriprise tower in Minneapolis sold for $6.25 million (from what I can tell there was no assumption of liabilities either), versus when it sold for $200 million in 2016.

As usual, I interpret this as the maintenance costs being high while occupancy is low, and an inability to legally use it as residential space or useful commercial space, so the marginal value here is mostly option value and the price is essentially zero.

We used to be a country. A proper country. And yes, this is a selective shot from NJ.

Autistic Transit Enthusiast: fucking wild how new York used to look like someone’s first cities skylines city.

The Omni Zaddy: Can’t believe it didn’t respect the character of the neighborhood 😢 I am sure that this building has remained an annoying eyesore that is broadly hated by New Yorkers to this day!

Taylor Swift explains a large part of the appeal of New York City, that you don’t have to plan things within physical space, you can much more allow things to simply happen. She talks about the night, it’s also true of the day and life in general. It doesn’t seem like it should matter so much, but it actually does. Also for cultural reasons that may be related in a non-obvious way, New York plans, when they do get made, are more reliable than plans elsewhere, not less.

Mayor Eric Adams has some issues, to say the least, but he does support the City of Yes, and general efforts to build more housing where people want to live, if not in the exact ways or to the degree I would prefer.

Chris Elmendorf looks at the City Council’s amendments to City of Yes, saying it’s wild how thoroughly they sheltered low-slung residential neighborhoods from change. It’s still progress, but far less than we would have hoped.

And it did pass. Notice anything about this map?

The richest places where people most want to live mostly voted yes. The poorer places, despite how the amendments ‘shielded them from change’ mostly voted no.

How about we fix (as in repeal) the Special Clinton District, which was created in 1974 and means a remarkably high value area of Manhattan is severely underbuilt and instead has the name Hell’s Kitchen and is host to the Daredevil?

The latest Adams proposal is called “City of Yes for Families.’ This involves zoning changes and additional housing initiatives, alas including foolish ones like down payment assistance. I am down for emphasizing family housing (as in 2+ bedroom apartments rather than 1-bedrooms and studios) but mostly I wish we would just focus on building more housing. The rest will take care of itself.

A cool motivating factor, Congressional representatives in shrinking areas like New York City need to support building more housing if they don’t want to fight each other after redistricting in 2030. We have no idea if that is why Rep. Dan Goldman is endorsing Zellnor Myrie for mayor, but we’ll take what we can get.

A fun fact about the world is that people remarkably rarely say ‘well, that would be a super bad look, maybe we should try and not appear maximally unreasonable so we don’t give them a great talking point.’

I mean, I respect the hell out of not doing that. It’s just, wow, all right then.

Thus:

sp6r=underrated: I really want to hammer this.

SF permitted 0 homes in the last month. None.

If Sacramento was serious, which it isn’t, this would spark immediate action.

I don’t understand how this happened but it’s great: San Francisco approves $700/month ‘pod’ housing at a former bank building in 12 Mint Plaza. You get a pod bed to sleep in, plus there is communal space, and they’re looking to expand to another larger location.

Armand Domalewski: it is really frustrating that so many people have tried to shut these sleeping pods down by arguing they’re inhumane while every single person I’ve met who lives in them is desperate for the city not to shut them down.

Like I’ve talked to at least three people who live in these pods and they’re all baffled by why people think evicting them somehow advances the cause of social justice.

Kelsey Piper: There’s something about small housing that brings out the absolute worst in people – instead of being rightfully angry at scarcity they get deeply and personally angry at the existence of small options and everyone who isn’t trying to shut them down.

Judge strikes down San Francisco’s vacant home tax. Very California. They have not as far as I know struck down the vacant storefront tax, but neither do we have reason to think they are enforcing it. I find it hard to tax empty storefronts given both how hard it is to actually open a store in San Francisco, and also SF’s general failure to enforce laws? As usual, the arguments of ‘this tax won’t be effective’ raise the question of ‘if the tax wouldn’t change behavior, doesn’t that mean it’s a great tax?’

It remains a bunch of suburbs at best, despite the immense amount of lost value.

Nate Silver: People can comment on whatever they want but Silicon Valley is a bunch of suburbs. Like go live in a real city if you have a Take on NYC.

Hayden: Silicon Valley could’ve been one of the most unbelievable and prosperous places on the planet, but elected officials decided to listen to NIMBYs for decades, and this is what the commercial corridor where the world’s most valuable company is headquartered looks like:

Imagine if nearly all the most innovative and wealthy companies on the planet descended came with jobs and investment enough to make the Vanderbilts blush and you keep it a glorified strip mall. I touch on it here:

William Eden: Texas Property Code:

“In addition, a property owners’ association can neither prohibit nor regulate the following:

– possession of firearms or ammunition (Section 202.021)

– lemonade stands (Section 202.020)

[end of list]”

I have a startup idea and the HOA can’t stop us 😏

It’s the [end of list] that gets me. These are the entirety of your enumerated protections from HOA tyranny in Texas. Thanks to @jamespayor for his diligent research of the Texas Property Code 🫡

First half of the business is set up

Our cities need more shade, especially as temperatures rise. An underrated concern.

It’s remarkable how much people will sacrifice in the name of sunlight, then never consider that we might want to walk in the shade.

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