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Blue Origin has emerged as the likely buyer for United Launch Alliance

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Blue-LA —

Pairing of two launch companies could provide more robust competition to SpaceX.

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The first Vulcan rocket fires off its launch pad in Florida in January 2024.

Enlarge / The first Vulcan rocket fires off its launch pad in Florida in January 2024.

United Launch Alliance

The rocket company owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Blue Origin, has emerged as the sole finalist to buy United Launch Alliance.

The sale is not official, and nothing has been formally announced. The co-owners of United Launch Alliance (ULA), Lockheed Martin and Boeing, have yet to comment publicly on the sale of the company, which, until the rise of SpaceX, was the sole major launch provider in the United States. They declined again on Wednesday.

“Consistent with our corporate practice, Boeing doesn’t comment on potential market rumors or speculation,” a Boeing spokesperson said.

Blue Origin did not return a request for comment.

However, two sources told Ars that Blue Origin is nearing the purchase of ULA. The sources said they have not personally seen any signed agreements, but they expect the sale to be announced within a month or two.

In the 11 months since Ars first reported that ULA was up for sale, the company’s potential buyer has become a topic of widespread speculation and interest. In November, Ars reported that Blue Origin was one of three potential buyers. In December, the Wall Street Journal confirmed that the competition was narrowing and said Blue Origin and a large private equity firm, Cerberus, were the two most likely bidders.

Bezos stock sales

Some recent related activity suggests the sale is imminent. A handful of senior officials at ULA are seeking new jobs. Additionally, Bezos recently sold $2.4 billion in Amazon stock and, in securities filings, disclosed that he could sell an additional $8 billion to $9 billion in stock over the next 12 months. Although there are no confirmed values, there has been speculation in the launch industry that ULA may be sold for $2 billion to $3 billion.

ULA was created in 2006 through a merger of Boeing’s Delta rocket program and Lockheed Martin’s Atlas launcher family. Since then, ULA has been a profitable enterprise for both aerospace giants, thanks to military launch contracts and (until recently) large annual subsidies from the US Department of Defense to maintain “launch readiness” for national security missions.

During the last decade, however, ULA’s launch dominance has first been challenged and then supplanted by the rise of SpaceX and its less expensive and highly reliable Falcon 9 rocket. Tory Bruno, who became ULA’s chief executive in 2014, has slashed employee headcount and taken other steps to control costs, such as closing infrequently used launch pads.

One of the key questions about the acquisition is what will happen to Bruno, who has demonstrated the ability to run a launch company with an excellent record of success, manage the development of a large new launch vehicle—the Vulcan rocket—and is willing to compete with SpaceX. It is unclear what role he would have in an acquisition by Blue Origin. Sources indicate that Bruno has a good relationship with Bezos.

Will the merger work?

There is considerable overlap in the launch businesses of ULA and Blue Origin. Vulcan and Blue Origin’s own large rocket, New Glenn, will both compete for government launch contracts, and both use the BE-4 rocket engines developed by Blue Origin. However, some synergies could make a combined Blue Origin-ULA a more formidable launch competitor to SpaceX.

ULA has operational launch pads at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida and Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. It has large integration facilities at both locations. Additionally, it has an experienced launch team with a long track record of success, which could be useful to Blue Origin as it seeks to launch the New Glenn rocket later this year.

Finally, ULA has some expertise in the storage of cryogenic fuels in space. For a time, before its co-owners shut down the program, ULA was developing an innovative upper stage known as ACES (Advanced Cryogenic Evolved Stage). This upper stage was intended to be reusable and powered by liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. These are the kinds of technologies that Blue Origin will need as it develops a lunar lander and tug spacecraft that uses these same propellants and requires them to be stored in space for long periods of time.

Blue Origin has emerged as the likely buyer for United Launch Alliance Read More »

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After its impressive first flight, here’s what’s next for the Vulcan rocket

Science, Space, ula, vulcan / /
The business end of the Vulcan rocket performed flawlessly during its debut launch.

Enlarge / The business end of the Vulcan rocket performed flawlessly during its debut launch.

United Launch Alliance

Early Monday morning, the hefty Vulcan rocket streaked into orbit for the first time, nailing its performance targets and delivering a substantial success to United Launch Alliance on the vehicle’s first test flight.

Unfortunately for the mission’s primary customer, Astrobotic, there was subsequently an issue with the lunar lander’s propulsion system. However, Astrobotic was quick to clear Vulcan of any blame, saying the payload was delivered into the planned lunar trajectory without issue. “There is no indication that the propulsion anomaly occurred as a result of the launch,” Astrobotic said.

Vulcan’s debut was much-anticipated in the US launch community because the rocket provides a potentially viable competitor to the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets flown by SpaceX. The US Space Force, in particular, has been waiting on Vulcan to fly dozens of payloads into orbit.

So now that Vulcan has flown once, what’s next?

Next up, Dream Chaser

Just ahead of the launch, two vice presidents with United Launch Alliance, Mark Peller and Gary Wentz, held a teleconference with reporters to address the future of Vulcan.

United Launch Alliance, or ULA, has set aside the next 60 days to review data from the “Cert-1” certification mission that launched on Monday morning, they said. If the data looks good from that flight, the company will move into preparations for the next launch. Wentz said the earliest opportunity to launch this Cert-2 mission is “April-ish.”

The BE-4 rocket engines that will power this Vulcan are in final acceptance testing at Blue Origin’s facilities in West Texas, the officials said. The Vulcan core stage and Centaur upper stage are also in final assembly in ULA’s main factory in Decatur, Alabama. The hardware readiness should be capable of supporting an April launch.

The second Vulcan launch will carry the Dream Chaser spacecraft into orbit for Sierra Space. The winged vehicle will fly a cargo mission that carries supplies to the International Space Station for NASA. After more than a decade of development, Dream Chaser is undergoing final tests. However, there remain some questions about when it will be ready for its debut launch.

The Dream Chaser mission does not have a specific launch date on NASA’s internal schedule, but it shows a potential docking with the International Space Station for 45 days during a period between early April and mid-June. The docking port for the mission will not be needed by other spacecraft this year, so ULA and Sierra Space have some flexibility with the launch date.

After its impressive first flight, here’s what’s next for the Vulcan rocket Read More »

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As Vulcan nears debut, it’s not clear whether ULA will live long and prosper

Science, Space, ula, vulcan / /

ULA LLAP —

This marks an absolutely pivotal moment for the 20-year-old launch company.

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United Launch Alliance hoists the Certification-1 payloads atop the Vulcan rocket in the Vertical Integration Facility adjacent to Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

Enlarge / United Launch Alliance hoists the Certification-1 payloads atop the Vulcan rocket in the Vertical Integration Facility adjacent to Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

United Launch Alliance

It’s nearly time. After years of delays, billions of dollars in federal funding, and a spectacular second-stage explosion, the large and impressive Vulcan rocket is finally ready to take flight.

United Launch Alliance’s heavy lift vehicle underwent its final review on Thursday, and the company cleared the rocket for its debut flight. With weather looking favorable, the Vulcan rocket is on track to lift off at 2: 18 am ET (7: 18 UTC) on Monday from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. The mission’s primary payload is a lunar lander built by Astrobotic, and the launch will be streamed live here.

This marks an absolutely pivotal moment for the 20-year-old launch company, which has gone from the titan of the US launch industry to playing a distant second fiddle to its one-time upstart competitor SpaceX. Last year, SpaceX launched 98 rockets. United Launch Alliance, or ULA, tallied just three. The owners of ULA, Lockheed Martin and Boeing, are also on the cusp of selling the launch company if they can find a buyer willing to pay the right price. And critically, for the first time, ULA will be flying a new vehicle it designed and developed on its own—a rocket with some but not a majority of its heritage from the legacy Atlas and Delta rockets that have flown since the Cold War.

So yeah, it’s a moment.

A little history

A quarter of a century ago, two of America’s largest aerospace contractors, Lockheed and Boeing, were the national leaders in providing launch services for the US military and many of NASA’s science missions. But they struggled to capture commercial satellite launches in an emerging market. Lockheed, with its Atlas rockets, and Boeing, with its Deltas, could not compete with Europe-based Arianespace and Russia on price. So the two US contractors doubled down on their competition for US government launch contracts.

The competition grew ugly, with allegations that Boeing stole rocket designs from Lockheed. The US Department of Justice began investigating how Boeing acquired tens of thousands of pages of trade secrets belonging to Lockheed Martin. There were lawsuits, and then questions about whether Boeing’s rocket business was viable. Military officials began to worry that if Boeing stopped flying the Delta, their only pathway into space would be through a Russian engine—the RD-180 that powered Lockheed’s Atlas V.

To ensure it had redundant access to space on two different rocket families, the military stepped in and arranged a shotgun marriage. The Department of Defense brokered a deal in which Lockheed and Boeing would merge their rocket-building ventures into one company, United Launch Alliance, in 2005. The parents retained a 50 percent ownership stake, and to sweeten the pot, the military agreed to pay a subsidy of about $1 billion a year.

Everything seemed to be working out well until SpaceX started launching rockets.

A little rivalry

ULA had tried to kill the baby. When SpaceX sought a launch site for its Falcon 9 rocket at Cape Canaveral in 2007, the parents lobbied the Air Force brass hard to stop the lease of Space Launch Complex-40 to Elon Musk and his rocket company. But the commander of the 45th Space Wing with oversight of Cape Canaveral, Gen. Susan Helms, approved the lease anyway.

Since then, ULA and SpaceX have been uneasy bedfellows in Florida, working side by side at nearby launch pads. Some of the rivalry was good-natured. Every week, for a while, engineers from SpaceX and ULA would meet up at Hogan’s Irish Bar in Cape Canaveral for trivia night. They would vie for nerd supremacy, drinking Guinness and blowing off steam.

But there have been more difficult confrontations. Musk kept pointing out the $1 billion subsidy at Congressional hearings—ULA officials bristled at the characterization of this ELC payment as a subsidy, but in effect, that’s what it was—and arguing that SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket could fly many of the military’s missions for much-reduced prices.

The issue came to a head in 2014, when the Air Force and ULA announced a new agreement for 36 national security launches to be flown during the remainder of the decade. ULA’s chief executive at the time, Mike Gass, hailed this “block buy” agreement because it would save the government $4.4 billion. Musk seethed. By then, his Falcon 9 rocket had launched eight times, all successfully. He sued the US government to stop the block buy and open up competition for the Falcon 9.

Several months into the lawsuit, SpaceX and the Air Force entered mediation. As part of the settlement, the military agreed to accelerate the certification of the Falcon 9 rocket and open up a number of the block buy launches to competition. SpaceX launched its first national security payload in 2017. SpaceX has not really looked back since.

Jeff Bezos (right), the founder of Blue Origin and Amazon.com, and Tory Bruno, CEO of United Launch Alliance, display a small-scale version of the BE-4 rocket engine during a press conference in 2014.

Enlarge / Jeff Bezos (right), the founder of Blue Origin and Amazon.com, and Tory Bruno, CEO of United Launch Alliance, display a small-scale version of the BE-4 rocket engine during a press conference in 2014.

As Vulcan nears debut, it’s not clear whether ULA will live long and prosper Read More »

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ULA chief says Vulcan rocket will slip to 2024 after ground system issues

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ULA delay —

The Colorado-based launch company will end 2023 with just three launches.

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ULA's Vulcan rocket rolls to the launch pad for testing.

Enlarge / ULA’s Vulcan rocket rolls to the launch pad for testing.

United Launch Alliance

United Launch Alliance will not see the debut of its next-generation Vulcan rocket in 2023, as previously planned.

The launch company’s chief executive, Tory Bruno, announced the delay on the social media site X on Sunday. United Launch Alliance had been working toward a debut flight of the lift booster on Christmas Eve, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

Bruno made the announcement after the company attempted to complete a fueling test of the entire rocket, known as a wet dress rehearsal.

“Vehicle performed well,” Bruno wrote. “Ground system had a couple of (routine) issues, (being corrected). Ran the timeline long so we didn’t quite finish. I’d like a FULL WDR before our first flight, so XMAS eve is likely out. Next Peregrine window is 8 Jan.”

Peregrine is the rocket’s primary payload, a lunar lander built by Astrobotic that is intended to deliver scientific experiments for NASA and other payloads the Moon. It has specific launch windows in order to reach the Moon and attempt a landing during ideal lighting conditions.

From the information contained in Bruno’s comment, it appears as though the work to correct the ground systems to fuel Vulcan—the first stage propellant is methane, which United Launch Alliance has not worked with before—will take long enough that it will preclude another fueling test ahead of the rocket’s late December launch window. Thus, the next launch attempt will likely occur no earlier than January 8.

A light cadence

It has been a slow year for United Launch Alliance, which dominated the US launch industry a decade ago. The company is going to launch just three rockets this calendar year: the classified NROL-68 mission on a Delta IV Heavy rocket in June, the “Silentbarker” mission for the National Reconnaissance Office on an Atlas V in September, and two Project Kuiper satellites for Amazon on an Atlas V in October.

That is the company’s lowest total number of launches since its founding in 2006, when the rocket businesses of Lockheed Martin and Boeing were merged.

Part of the reason for the low total is that United Launch Alliance is undergoing a transition from its historical fleet of Delta and Atlas rockets to Vulcan, which is intended to be more price competitive with other commercial offerings, such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. There will be a lot of demand for Vulcan once it starts flying regulary.

However, another factor is that the lower cost and equally reliable Falcon rockets have taken commercial and government launch business away from United Launch Alliance. SpaceX has steadily ascended over the last decade as United Launch Alliance has struggled to compete.

Whereas Bruno’s company launched just three rockets in 2023, on a handful of occasions SpaceX has launched three rockets in three days during this calendar year. SpaceX is likely to end the year with between 95 and 100 total launches.

ULA chief says Vulcan rocket will slip to 2024 after ground system issues Read More »