BYD

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China’s plan to dominate EV sales around the world

China’s plan to dominate EV sales around the world

FT montage/Getty Images

The resurrection of a car plant in Brazil’s poor northeast stands as a symbol of China’s global advance—and the West’s retreat.

BYD, the Shenzhen-based conglomerate, has taken over an old Ford factory in Camaçari, which was abandoned by the American automaker nearly a century after Henry Ford first set up operations in Brazil.

When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, visited China last year, he met BYD’s billionaire founder and chair, Wang Chuanfu. After that meeting, BYD picked the country for its first carmaking hub outside of Asia.

Under a $1 billion-plus investment plan, BYD intends to start producing electric and hybrid automobiles this year at the site in Bahia state, which will also manufacture bus and truck chassis and process battery materials.

The new Brazil plant is no outlier—it falls into a wave of corporate Chinese investment in electric vehicle manufacturing supply chains in the world’s most important developing economies.

Financial Times

The inadvertent result of rising protectionism in the US and Europe could be to drive many emerging markets into China’s hands.

Last month, Joe Biden issued a new broadside against Beijing’s deep financial support of Chinese industry as he unveiled sweeping new tariffs on a range of cleantech products—most notably, a 100 percent tariff on electric vehicles. “It’s not competition. It’s cheating. And we’ve seen the damage here in America,” Biden said.

The measures were partly aimed at boosting Biden’s chances in his presidential battle with Donald Trump. But the tariffs, paired with rising restrictions on Chinese investment on American soil, will have an immense impact on the global auto market, in effect shutting China’s world-leading EV makers out of the world’s biggest economy.

The EU’s own anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric cars is expected to conclude next week as Brussels tries to protect European carmakers by stemming the flow of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles into the bloc.

Government officials, executives, and experts say that the series of new cleantech tariffs issued by Washington and Brussels are forcing China’s leading players to sharpen their focus on markets in the rest of the world.

This, they argue, will lead to Chinese dominance across the world’s most important emerging markets, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and the remaining Western economies that are less protectionist than the US and Europe.

“That is the part that seems to be lost in this whole discussion of ‘can we raise some tariffs and slow down the Chinese advance.’ That’s only defending your homeland. That’s leaving everything else open,” says Bill Russo, the former head of Chrysler in Asia and founder of Automobility, a Shanghai consultancy.

“Those markets are in play and China is aggressively going after those markets.”

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“Ban Chinese electric vehicles now,” demands US senator

BYD in the crosshairs —

China’s EV industry benefits from billions of dollars in government subsidies.

A row of BYD vehicles on a dealer lot in Berlin.

Enlarge / BYD electric cars stand at a BYD dealership on April 05, 2024, in Berlin, Germany. BYD, which stands for Build Your Dreams, is a Chinese manufacturer that went from making solar panels to electric cars. The company is seeking to gain a foothold in the German auto market.

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Influential US Senator Sherrod Brown (D–Ohio) has called on US President Joe Biden to ban electric vehicles from Chinese brands. Brown calls Chinese EVs “an existential threat” to the US automotive industry and says that allowing imports of cheap EVs from Chinese brands “is inconsistent with a pro-worker industrial policy.”

Brown’s letter to the president is the most recent to sound alarms about the threat of heavily subsidized Chinese EVs moving into established markets. Brands like BYD and MG have been on sale in the European Union for some years now, and last October, the EU launched an anti-subsidy investigation into whether the Chinese government is giving Chinese brands an unfair advantage.

The EU probe won’t wrap until November, but another report published this week found that government subsidies for green technology companies are prevalent in China. BYD, which now sells more EVs than Tesla, has benefited from almost $4 billion (3.7 billion euro) in direct help from the Chinese government in 2022, according to a study by the Kiel Institute.

Last month, the EU even started paying extra attention to imports of Chinese EVs, issuing a threat of retroactive tariffs that could start being imposed this summer.

Chinese EV imports to the EU have increased by 14 percent since the start of its investigation, but they have yet to really begin in the US, where there are a few barriers in their way. Chinese batteries make an EV ineligible for the IRS’s clean vehicle tax credit, for one thing. And Chinese-made vehicles (like the Lincoln Nautilus, Buick Envision, and Polestar 2) are already subject to a 27.5 percent import tax.

An existential threat?

But Chinese EVs are on sale in Mexico already, and that has American automakers worried. Last year, Ford CEO Jim Farley said he saw Chinese automakers “as the main competitors, not GM or Toyota.” And in January, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he believed that “if there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world.”

BYD, which recently debuted a sub-$10,000 EV called the Seagull, is reportedly looking for a factory in Mexico. That would allow it to build cars for the US market that aren’t subject to the 27.5 percent tax.

But not if Congress gets its way. A few weeks ago, Joshua Hawley (R-Mo.)—using very similar language to Brown—called for a tax increase on Chinese EVs. Hawley wanted to raise the base tariff from 2.5 percent to 100 percent, which would result in Chinese EVs being subject to an overall 125 percent import tax, up from today’s 27.5 percent. Hawley also wanted to apply those rates to Chinese EVs assembled in Mexico.

“A surge in Chinese EV sales would cripple the domestic manufacturing base, including critical inputs from parts suppliers to steel, tires, and glass producers,” wrote Brown, noting also that Chinese EVs could “undermine efforts to reshore semiconductor production.” Brown is similarly down on allowing made-in-Mexico EVs from Chinese brands.

It’s not just the potential damage to the US auto industry that has prompted this letter. Brown wrote that he is concerned about the risk of China having access to data collected by connected cars, “whether it be information about traffic patterns, critical infrastructure, or the lives of Americans,” pointing out that “China does not allow American-made electric vehicles near their official buildings.”

At the end of February, the Commerce Department also warned of the security risk from Chinese-connected cars and revealed it has launched an investigation into the matter.

Brown doesn’t just want a tariff on Chinese EVs, though. “When the goal is to dominate a sector, tariffs are insufficient to stop their attack on American manufacturing,” Brown wrote. “Instead, the Administration should act now to ban Chinese EVs before they destroy the potential for the US EV market. For this reason, no solution should be left off the table, including the use of Section 421 (China Safeguard) of the Trade Act of 1974, or some other authority.”

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Tesla sold 1.8 million electric vehicles in 2023

38 < 50 —

It met its sales goal, but growth is well below CEO Elon Musk’s stated target.

Workers walk past a large Tesla logo.

Getty Images | San Francisco Chronicle/Hearst Newspapers

Tesla found new homes for 1.8 million electric vehicles last year, it revealed on Tuesday afternoon. That will no doubt please CEO Elon Musk—it means the company has met its sales volume goal given to investors when it released its 2022 financial results at the end of last January.

Tesla built 494,989 vehicles in the last quarter of 2023, of which 18,212 were the more expensive but aging Models S and X. More importantly to the bottom line, Tesla built 476,777 Models 3 and Y. For the same three months, it delivered 484,507 EVs, of which 461,538 were the popular Models 3 and Y.

Cumulatively, Tesla built 1,845,985 EVs—1,775,159 Models 3 and Y and 70,826 Models S and X. And it delivered 1,808,581 EVs (1,739,707 Models 3 and Y; 68,874 Models S and X)—meeting the 2023 sales goal of 1.8 million cars sold.

That’s another record year for Tesla, but it’s also another year where the company has fallen far short of its targeted cumulative annual growth rate of 50 percent. Last year, it grew by 40 percent; this year, it grew by just 38 percent.

For that 50 percent CAGR to become a reality, 2024 will need to be a much stronger year than Tesla has had in the past. But that might prove easier said than done. BYD, a Chinese automaker, eclipsed Tesla in EV sales for the first time in Q4 2023, and Tesla’s market share is declining—albeit slowly—in the US as dozens of new EVs have gone on sale of late.

China and the US are Tesla’s two most important markets, and it seems investors have taken notice—Tesla’s share price has fallen almost five percent since the start of trading this morning.

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