Author name: Paul Patrick

measles-arrives-in-kansas,-spreads-quickly-in-undervaccinated-counties

Measles arrives in Kansas, spreads quickly in undervaccinated counties

On Thursday, the county on the northern border of Stevens, Grant County, also reported three confirmed cases, which were also linked to the first case in Stevens. Grant County is in a much better position to handle the outbreak than its neighbors; its one school district, Ulysses, reported 100 percent vaccination coverage for kindergartners in the 2023–2024 school year.

Outbreak risk

So far, details about the fast-rising cases are scant. The Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) has not published another press release about the cases since March 13. Ars Technica reached out to KDHE for more information but did not hear back before this story’s publication.

The outlet KWCH 12 News out of Wichita published a story Thursday, when there were just six cases reported in just Grant and Stevens Counties, saying that all six were in unvaccinated people and that no one had been hospitalized. On Friday, KWCH updated the story to note that the case count had increased to 10 and that the health department now considers the situation an outbreak.

Measles is an extremely infectious virus that can linger in airspace and on surfaces for up to two hours after an infected person has been in an area. Among unvaccinated people exposed to the virus, 90 percent will become infected.

Vaccination rates have slipped nationwide, creating pockets that have lost herd immunity and are vulnerable to fast-spreading, difficult-to-stop outbreaks. In the past, strong vaccination rates prevented such spread, and in 2000, the virus was declared eliminated, meaning there was no continuous spread of the virus over a 12-month period. Experts now fear that the US will lose its elimination status, meaning measles will once again be considered endemic to the country.

So far this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has documented 378 measles cases as of Thursday, March 20. That figure is already out of date.

On Friday, the Texas health department reported 309 cases in its ongoing outbreak. Forty people have been hospitalized, and one unvaccinated child with no underlying medical conditions has died. The outbreak has spilled over to New Mexico and Oklahoma. In New Mexico, officials reported Friday that the case count has risen to 42 cases, with two hospitalizations and one death in an unvaccinated adult. In Oklahoma, the case count stands at four.

Measles arrives in Kansas, spreads quickly in undervaccinated counties Read More »

italy-demands-google-poison-dns-under-strict-piracy-shield-law

Italy demands Google poison DNS under strict Piracy Shield law

Spotted by TorrentFreak, AGCOM Commissioner Massimiliano Capitanio took to LinkedIn to celebrate the ruling, as well as the existence of the Italian Piracy Shield. “The Judge confirmed the value of AGCOM’s investigations, once again giving legitimacy to a system for the protection of copyright that is unique in the world,” said Capitanio.

Capitanio went on to complain that Google has routinely ignored AGCOM’s listing of pirate sites, which are supposed to be blocked in 30 minutes or less under the law. He noted the violation was so clear-cut that the order was issued without giving Google a chance to respond, known as inaudita altera parte in Italian courts.

This decision follows a similar case against Internet backbone firm Cloudflare. In January, the Court of Milan found that Cloudflare’s CDN, DNS server, and WARP VPN were facilitating piracy. The court threatened Cloudflare with fines of up to 10,000 euros per day if it did not begin blocking the sites.

Google could face similar sanctions, but AGCOM has had difficulty getting international tech behemoths to acknowledge their legal obligations in the country. We’ve reached out to Google for comment and will update this report if we hear back.

Italy demands Google poison DNS under strict Piracy Shield law Read More »

“infantile-amnesia”-occurs-despite-babies-showing-memory-activity

“Infantile amnesia” occurs despite babies showing memory activity

For many of us, memories of our childhood have become a bit hazy, if not vanishing entirely. But nobody really remembers much before the age of 4, because nearly all humans experience what’s termed “infantile amnesia,” in which memories that might have formed before that age seemingly vanish as we move through adolescence. And it’s not just us; the phenomenon appears to occur in a number of our fellow mammals.

The simplest explanation for this would be that the systems that form long-term memories are simply immature and don’t start working effectively until children hit the age of 4. But a recent animal experiment suggests that the situation in mice is more complex: the memories are there, they’re just not normally accessible, although they can be re-activated. Now, a study that put human infants in an MRI tube suggests that memory activity starts by the age of 1, suggesting that the results in mice may apply to us.

Less than total recall

Mice are one of the species that we know experience infantile amnesia. And, thanks to over a century of research on mice, we have some sophisticated genetic tools that allow us to explore what’s actually involved in the apparent absence of the animals’ earliest memories.

A paper that came out last year describes a series of experiments that start by having very young mice learn to associate seeing a light come on with receiving a mild shock. If nothing else is done with those mice, that association will apparently be forgotten later in life due to infantile amnesia.

But in this case, the researchers could do something. Neural activity normally results in the activation of a set of genes. In these mice, the researchers engineered it so one of the genes that gets activated encodes a protein that can modify DNA. When this protein is made, it results in permanent changes to a second gene that was inserted in the animal’s DNA. Once activated through this process, the gene leads to the production of a light-activated ion channel.

“Infantile amnesia” occurs despite babies showing memory activity Read More »

judge-orders-musk-and-doge-to-delete-personal-data-taken-from-social-security

Judge orders Musk and DOGE to delete personal data taken from Social Security

The lawsuit was filed by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; the Alliance for Retired Americans; and American Federation of Teachers. “Never before has a group of unelected, unappointed, and unvetted individuals—contradictorily described as White House employees, employees of either existing or putative agencies (multiple and many), and undefined ‘advisors’—sought or gained access to such sensitive information from across the federal government,” the lawsuit said.

A temporary restraining order preserves the status quo until a preliminary injunction hearing can be held, although the legal standards for granting a temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction are essentially the same, Hollander wrote. A temporary restraining order lasts 14 days by default but can be extended.

“In my view, plaintiffs have shown a likelihood of success on the merits as to their claim that the access to records provided by SSA to the DOGE Team does not fall within the need-to-know exception to the Privacy Act. Therefore, the access violates both the Privacy Act and the APA,” Hollander wrote.

The SSA has meanwhile been hit with DOGE-fueled budget cuts affecting its operations.

The order

The order says the SSA must cut off DOGE’s access. Musk, Gleason, and all other DOGE team members and affiliates “shall disgorge and delete all non-anonymized PII [personally identifiable information] data in their possession or under their control, provided from or obtained, directly or indirectly, from any SSA system of record to which they have or have had access, directly or indirectly, since January 20, 2025,” it says.

The DOGE defendants are also prohibited “from installing any software on SSA devices, information systems, or systems of record, and shall remove any software that they previously installed since January 20, 2025, or which has been installed on their behalf,” and are prohibited “from accessing, altering, or disclosing any SSA computer or software code.”

The SSA is allowed to provide DOGE with redacted or anonymized records, and may provide “access to discrete, particularized, and non-anonymized data, in accordance with the Privacy Act” under certain conditions. “SSA must first obtain from the DOGE Team member, in writing, and subject to possible review by the Court, a detailed explanation as to the need for the record and why, for said particular and discrete record, an anonymized or redacted record is not suitable for the specified use,” the order said. “The general and conclusory explanation that the information is needed to search for fraud or waste is not sufficient to establish need.”

Judge orders Musk and DOGE to delete personal data taken from Social Security Read More »

the-ax-has-become-an-important-part-of-the-space-force’s-arsenal

The ax has become an important part of the Space Force’s arsenal

“All those traditional primes opted out of this event, every single one,” Hammett said. “We’re cultivating an A-team who’s willing to work with us, who’s hungry, who wants to bring affordability and speed, and it’s not the existing industry base.”

Hammett’s office didn’t set out to banish the big defense contractors. Simply put, he said they haven’t performed or aren’t interested in going in the direction Space RCO wants to go.

“I’ve terminated 11 major contracts in less than three years,” Hammett said. “Eighty-five percent of those were with traditional defense primes.” Most of these programs are classified, so it doesn’t become news when a contract is canceled.

“We try to fix the programs,” Hammett said. “We work with the performers, but if they can’t get right, and if we have program baselines where they’re now exceeding it by 100 percent in cost or schedule … we’re going to fire them and start again.”

At the same time, venture-backed companies seem to emerge every day from the ether of Silicon Valley or one of the nation’s other tech corridors.

“There’s a lot of opportunity to bring other performers into the portfolio, but there are lots of barriers,” Hammett said. One of those barriers is leadership at many startups don’t have a security clearance. Many small companies don’t use the certified accounting systems the government usually requires for federal contracts. 

“You have to be willing to modify your approach, your acquisition strategies, those types of things, so I have directed my team to open the aperture, to find the A-team, wherever the A-team lives, because it doesn’t seem to be in our current portfolio,” Hammett said.

The Space Force has launched three generations of GPS satellites capable of broadcasting a jam-resistant military-grade navigation signal, but ground system delays have kept US forces from fully adopting it. This image shows a GPS III satellite at Lockheed Martin. Credit: Lockheed Martin

There’s still a place for the Pentagon’s incumbent contractors, according to Hammett. Small companies like the ones at Space RCO’s pitch lack the national, or even global, footprint to execute the military’s most expensive programs.

“We’re trying to build the first of something new, different, at a price point that we can accept,” Hammett said. “That’s what these types of companies are trying to do. And we’re not having to pay the lion’s share of the cost for that because VC [venture capital] firms and others are kick-starting them.”

Executives at Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and other traditional defense companies have become warier of bidding on government programs, especially fixed-price contracts where financial risk is transferred from the government to the contractor.

The CEO of L3Harris, another established defense contractor, said in 2023 that his company has also declined to bid on fixed-price development contracts. L3Harris leads development of a software system called ATLAS to manage data from a network of sensors tracking rocket launches and objects in orbit. The program is over budget and was supposed to be ready for action in 2022, but it still isn’t operational.

RTX is in charge of another troubled military space program. The Next-Generation Operational Control System, known as OCX, is designed to allow military forces, including airplanes, ships, and ground vehicles, to access a jam-resistant GPS signal that satellites have been beaming from space since 2005. Twenty years later, the military’s weapons systems still haven’t widely adopted this M-code signal because of OCX delays.

Both programs are managed by Space Systems Command, the unit that has traditionally been responsible for buying hardware and software for military space programs. SSC, too, hasn’t shied away recently from taking the hatchet to some problem projects. Last year, SSC confirmed it kicked RTX off a program to develop three next-generation missile warning satellites because it was over budget, behind schedule, and faced “unresolved design challenges.”

The ax has become an important part of the Space Force’s arsenal Read More »

mom-of-child-dead-from-measles:-“don’t-do-the-shots,”-my-other-4-kids-were-fine

Mom of child dead from measles: “Don’t do the shots,” my other 4 kids were fine

Cod liver oil contains high levels of vitamin A, which is sometimes administered to measles patients under a physician’s supervision. But the supplement is mostly a supportive treatment in children with vitamin deficiencies, and taking too much can cause toxicity. Nevertheless, Kennedy has touted the vitamin and falsely claimed that good nutrition protects against the virus, much to the dismay of pediatricians.

“They had a really good, quick recovery,” the mother said of her other four children, attributing their recovery to the unproven treatments.

Tragic misinformation

Most children do recover from measles, regardless of whether they’re given cod liver oil. The fatality rate of measles is nearly 1 to 3 in 1,000 children, who die with respiratory (e.g., pneumonia) or neurological complications from the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Tommey noted that the sibling who died didn’t get the alternative treatments, leading the audience to believe that this could have contributed to her death. She also questioned what was written on the death certificate, noting that the girl’s pneumonia was from a secondary bacterial infection, not the virus directly, a clear effort to falsely suggest measles was not the cause of death and downplay the dangers of the disease. The parents said they hadn’t received the death certificate yet.

Tommey then turned to the MMR vaccine, asking if the mother still felt that it was a dangerous vaccine after her daughter’s death from the disease, prefacing the question by claiming to have seen a lot of “injury” from the vaccine. “Do you still feel the same way about the MMR vaccine versus measles?” she asked.

“Yes, absolutely; we would absolutely not take the MMR. The measles wasn’t that bad, and they got over it pretty quickly,” the mother replied, speaking again of her four living children.

“So,” Tommey continued, “when you see the fearmongering in the press, which is what we want to stop, that is why we want to get the truth out, what do you say to the parents who are rushing out, panicking, to get the MMR for their 6-month-old baby because they think that that child is going to die of measles because of what happened to your daughter?”

Mom of child dead from measles: “Don’t do the shots,” my other 4 kids were fine Read More »

bird-flu-continues-spread-as-trump’s-pandemic-experts-are-mia

Bird flu continues spread as Trump’s pandemic experts are MIA

Under the Biden administration, OPPR also worked behind the scenes. At the time, it was directed by Paul Friedrichs, a physician and retired Air Force major general. Friedrichs told CNN that the OPPR regularly hosted interagency calls between the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the USDA, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the US Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health. When the H5N1 bird flu outbreak erupted in dairy farms last March, OPPR was hosting daily meetings, which transitioned to weekly meetings toward the end of the administration.

“At the end of the day, bringing everybody together and having those meetings was incredibly important, so that we had a shared set of facts,” Friedrichs said. “When decisions were made, everyone understood why the decision was made, what facts were used to inform the decision.”

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), who co-wrote the bill that created OPPR with former Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), is concerned by Trump’s sidelining of the office.

“Under the last administration, OPPR served, as intended, as the central hub coordinating a whole-of-government response to pandemic threats,” she said in a written statement to CNN. “While President Trump cannot legally disband OPPR, as he has threatened to do, it is deeply concerning that he has moved the statutorily created OPPR into the NSC.”

“As intended by law, OPPR is a separate, distinct office for a reason, which is especially relevant now as we are seeing outbreaks of measles, bird flu, and other serious and growing threats to public health,” Murray wrote. “This should be alarming to everyone.”

Bird flu continues spread as Trump’s pandemic experts are MIA Read More »

hp-avoids-monetary-damages-over-bricked-printers-in-class-action-settlement

HP avoids monetary damages over bricked printers in class-action settlement

HP also now provides disclaimers on the product pages for most of the printers that it sells, stating that the device “is intended to work only with cartridges that have a new or reused HP chip” and uses Dynamic Security “to block cartridges using a non-HP chip.”

“Periodic firmware updates will maintain the effectiveness of these measures and block cartridges that previously worked. A reused HP chip enables the use of reused, remanufactured, and refilled cartridges,” the disclaimer says, adding a link to a support page about Dynamic Security. The support page notes that “most HP printers can be configured to receive updates either automatically or with a notification that allows you to choose whether to update or not.” However, some HP programs, like Instant Ink, require users to enable automatic firmware updates on HP printers.

All this means that, despite the recently approved settlement, Dynamic Security remains a critical part of most HP printers, and HP will continue to feel entitled to use firmware updates to suddenly block printers made after December 1, 2016, from using non-HP ink and toner. Owners of HP printers made after that date that allow automatic updates and still work with third-party accessories shouldn’t be surprised if that ability’s suddenly bricked one day.

Dynamic litigation

While HP isn’t paying a sum to class-action members this time, it has previously agreed to pay millions in relation to bricking printers: In 2022, it agreed to pay $1.35 million to European customers, and in 2020, the Italian Antitrust Authority fined HP for 10 million euros. In 2019, HP said it would pay $1.5 million to settle a similar class-action case in California, and it paid approximately AUD$50 each to Australian customers impacted by Dynamic Security in 2018.

There’s also an open case against HP regarding its ink practices, a class-action complaint filed in the US District Court for the Northern District of Illinois in January 2024. The lawsuit centers on Dynamic Security firmware updates pushed “in late 2022 and early 2023″ and accuses HP of creating a “monopoly in the aftermarket for replacement cartridges” [PDF]. The plaintiffs seek an order declaring that HP broke the law, an injunction against Dynamic Security, and monetary and punitive damages.

Another lawsuit, filed in mid-2022 about some HP all-in-one printers failing to scan or fax without ink, was dismissed.

HP’s printer arm has other pressing matters to address, though. Earlier this month, a firmware update broke specific HP printer models, preventing them from printing, even when using HP-brand ink. HP told Ars last week that it’s “actively working on a solution.”

HP avoids monetary damages over bricked printers in class-action settlement Read More »

nvidia-announces-dgx-desktop-“personal-ai-supercomputers”

Nvidia announces DGX desktop “personal AI supercomputers”

During Tuesday’s Nvidia GTX keynote, CEO Jensen Huang unveiled two “personal AI supercomputers” called DGX Spark and DGX Station, both powered by the Grace Blackwell platform. In a way, they are a new type of AI PC architecture specifically built for running neural networks, and five major PC manufacturers will build the supercomputers.

These desktop systems, first previewed as “Project DIGITS” in January, aim to bring AI capabilities to developers, researchers, and data scientists who need to prototype, fine-tune, and run large AI models locally. DGX systems can serve as standalone desktop AI labs or “bridge systems” that allow AI developers to move their models from desktops to DGX Cloud or any AI cloud infrastructure with few code changes.

Huang explained the rationale behind these new products in a news release, saying, “AI has transformed every layer of the computing stack. It stands to reason a new class of computers would emerge—designed for AI-native developers and to run AI-native applications.”

The smaller DGX Spark features the GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip with Blackwell GPU and fifth-generation Tensor Cores, delivering up to 1,000 trillion operations per second for AI.

Meanwhile, the more powerful DGX Station includes the GB300 Grace Blackwell Ultra Desktop Superchip with 784GB of coherent memory and the ConnectX-8 SuperNIC supporting networking speeds up to 800Gb/s.

The DGX architecture serves as a prototype that other manufacturers can produce. Asus, Dell, HP, and Lenovo will develop and sell both DGX systems, with DGX Spark reservations opening today and DGX Station expected later in 2025. Additional manufacturing partners for the DGX Station include BOXX, Lambda, and Supermicro, with systems expected to be available later this year.

Since the systems will be manufactured by different companies, Nvidia did not mention pricing for the units. However, in January, Nvidia mentioned that the base-level configuration for a DGX Spark-like computer would retail for around $3,000.

Nvidia announces DGX desktop “personal AI supercomputers” Read More »

nvidia-announces-“rubin-ultra”-and-“feynman”-ai-chips-for-2027-and-2028

Nvidia announces “Rubin Ultra” and “Feynman” AI chips for 2027 and 2028

On Tuesday at Nvidia’s GTC 2025 conference in San Jose, California, CEO Jensen Huang revealed several new AI-accelerating GPUs the company plans to release over the coming months and years. He also revealed more specifications about previously announced chips.

The centerpiece announcement was Vera Rubin, first teased at Computex 2024 and now scheduled for release in the second half of 2026. This GPU, named after a famous astronomer, will feature tens of terabytes of memory and comes with a custom Nvidia-designed CPU called Vera.

According to Nvidia, Vera Rubin will deliver significant performance improvements over its predecessor, Grace Blackwell, particularly for AI training and inference.

Specifications for Vera Rubin, presented by Jensen Huang during his GTC 2025 keynote.

Specifications for Vera Rubin, presented by Jensen Huang during his GTC 2025 keynote.

Vera Rubin features two GPUs together on one die that deliver 50 petaflops of FP4 inference performance per chip. When configured in a full NVL144 rack, the system delivers 3.6 exaflops of FP4 inference compute—3.3 times more than Blackwell Ultra’s 1.1 exaflops in a similar rack configuration.

The Vera CPU features 88 custom ARM cores with 176 threads connected to Rubin GPUs via a high-speed 1.8 TB/s NVLink interface.

Huang also announced Rubin Ultra, which will follow in the second half of 2027. Rubin Ultra will use the NVL576 rack configuration and feature individual GPUs with four reticle-sized dies, delivering 100 petaflops of FP4 precision (a 4-bit floating-point format used for representing and processing numbers within AI models) per chip.

At the rack level, Rubin Ultra will provide 15 exaflops of FP4 inference compute and 5 exaflops of FP8 training performance—about four times more powerful than the Rubin NVL144 configuration. Each Rubin Ultra GPU will include 1TB of HBM4e memory, with the complete rack containing 365TB of fast memory.

Nvidia announces “Rubin Ultra” and “Feynman” AI chips for 2027 and 2028 Read More »

gemini-gets-new-coding-and-writing-tools,-plus-ai-generated-“podcasts”

Gemini gets new coding and writing tools, plus AI-generated “podcasts”

On the heels of its release of new Gemini models last week, Google has announced a pair of new features for its flagship AI product. Starting today, Gemini has a new Canvas feature that lets you draft, edit, and refine documents or code. Gemini is also getting Audio Overviews, a neat capability that first appeared in the company’s NotebookLM product, but it’s getting even more useful as part of Gemini.

Canvas is similar (confusingly) to the OpenAI product of the same name. Canvas is available in the Gemini prompt bar on the web and mobile app. Simply upload a document and tell Gemini what you need to do with it. In Google’s example, the user asks for a speech based on a PDF containing class notes. And just like that, Gemini spits out a document.

Canvas lets you refine the AI-generated documents right inside Gemini. The writing tools available across the Google ecosystem, with options like suggested edits and different tones, are available inside the Gemini-based editor. If you want to do more edits or collaborate with others, you can export the document to Google Docs with a single click.

Gemini Canvas with tic-tac-toe game

Credit: Google

Canvas is also adept at coding. Just ask, and Canvas can generate prototype web apps, Python scripts, HTML, and more. You can ask Gemini about the code, make alterations, and even preview your results in real time inside Gemini as you (or the AI) make changes.

Gemini gets new coding and writing tools, plus AI-generated “podcasts” Read More »

monthly-roundup-#28:-march-2025

Monthly Roundup #28: March 2025

I plan to continue to leave the Trump administration out of monthly roundups – I will do my best to only cover the administration as it relates to my particular focus areas. That is ‘if I start down this road there is nowhere to stop’ and ‘other sources are left to cover that topic’ and not ‘there are not things worth mentioning.’

  1. Bad News.

  2. While I Cannot Condone This.

  3. Good News, Everyone.

  4. Opportunity Knocks.

  5. For Your Entertainment.

  6. I Was Promised Flying Self-Driving Cars and Supersonic Jets.

  7. Gamers Gonna Game Game Game Game Game.

  8. Sports Go Sports.

  9. The Lighter Side.

I also had forgotten this was originally from Napoleon rather than Bill Watterson.

Dylan O’Sullivan: Napoleon once said that the surprising thing was not that every man has his price, but how low it is, and I can’t help but see that everywhere now.

You destroyed and betrayed yourself for a handful of clicks.

Jasmeet: Dostoevsky wrote, “Your worst sin is that you have destroyed and betrayed yourself for nothing.”

That seems especially appropriate lately, for mostly non-AI reasons.

Mozilla seems to ban porn on Firefox and telling users it can harvest their data?

Disney shuts down 538, Nate Silver offers a few words. You can get all their data off of GitHub. It is a shame that 538 could not be sustained, and I am sad for those who lost their jobs, but as Nate Silver notes their business model was unsustainable inside Disney. Hopefully Silver Bulletin and others can carry the torch in the future.

Restaurant productivity technically rose 15% during the pandemic and sustained that gain, but it turns out it is entirely attributable to the rise of takeout and delivery. That’s not a rise in productivity, that’s delivering a different product that is easier to produce and also in general worse. If anything this change is bad.

Zeynep Tufekci, who has been on top of this from the beginning, reminds us of the massive efforts to mislead us about the fact that Covid-19 could have come from a lab. We don’t know whether Covid-19 came from a lab, but we do know it very much could have, that there was a massive coordinated operation to suppress this fact, and most importantly that this means that we are continuing to do lab research that is likely to cause future pandemics.

Aditya Agarwal models a person’s ambition as something you can unlock and unleash, but not fundamentally change. I think I mostly agree with a soft version of this. There are plenty of people who are ambitious but haven’t been given or felt opportunity, or you can remove something blocking them, but if an adult is at core not so ambitious you should assume you can’t fix that.

Travel advice from The Technium, mostly endorsed by Tyler Cowen. Definitely some good tips in there, even for those who have little desire for the kind of experience this is striving to achieve. The core recommendation is as a baseline to take trips with about 10 days of intense travel, with 12 non-travel days total, and you start with the most challenging content first.

One pattern to notice is the need to focus on absolute marginal cost of things like renting a driver or paying for entry to a museum and what not, rather than looking at relative cost or comparing to what might seem expensive or fair. Only the absolute costs matter.

I continue to not have the desire to do this style of travel that he calls E&E, for engagement and experience, but it does appeal more than the traditional R&R style, for rest and recreation. I can do R&R at home, in many ways far better than I can travelling, at almost no marginal cost. But then, I can do my version of E&E at home too, and often do, although not as often as I should.

A perspective on what does and does not cost you precious Weirdness Points. The particular claim is that being vegan while respecting others preferences costs very little, whereas telling others what to eat costs a lot of points. I agree in relative terms, although I disagree in absolute terms. The general pattern of ‘telling others to do [weird thing] costs vastly more than doing it yourself’ definitely applies, but the [weird thing] can still be expensive.

The Dead Planet Theory, the generalization that most of life is showing up, if showing up includes attempting to Do the Thing at all. As in, yes You Can Just Do Things, and the reason you can is that you almost certainly won’t, which means little competition.

The ritual ritual.

Ashwin Sharma: Basically, Joseph Campbell taught me to ritualize almost everything I considered mundane. Like my morning coffee, my afternoon walk, and my bedtime reading. I learned over time that this is because ritualizing ordinary moments makes them sacred. And when something becomes sacred, when you give it meaning, it gives meaning back to you.

Chris Cordry: Ritualizing everyday actions also means you bring more attention to them. When we give attention to something on a deep level, we can experience it as sacred independent of cognitive meaning-making.

I wrote Bring Back the Sabbath, so I’ve long been a supporter of this, and I agree. The more rituals you can make work for you, the longer you can sustain them, the better. There are of course costs, but consider this a claim that the Ritual Effect matters more than you think it does.

Your periodic reminder that some important people need lately:

Lars Doucet: The counterpart to “move fast and break things” is “don’t be in such a hurry that you waste time.”

This is commonly misunderstood as saying, “please don’t go fast.” It means the opposite! It means, “optimizing for the *feelingof going fast will *MAKE YOU SLOWER*”

The “move fast and break things” vibes, as fun as it is, does pack in a certain tolerance for carelessness and “we’ll figure it out later.”

Sometimes being careful and figuring it out before you leave the house makes you arrive at the destination faster!

The most obvious application in software land is technical debt. You do want rapid prototypes and you do want to avoid premature optimization and over engineering.

But also nothing slows you down like an easily avoided big ball of mud.

Really you just need to very good at asking yourself “am I chasing a goal or am I chasing a vibe?” There are a lot of things that FEEL like going fast that aren’t actually going fast, just being in a hurry, which is a totally different thing.

There’s a similar phenomenon with various cargo-cult symptoms surrounding work culture. It’s very easy to signal that you are very busy, but that’s not the same thing as working hard, which in turn is not the same thing as getting stuff done efficiently and effectively.

Female economists are more persuasive than male economists to those who know the economist is female. For those who don’t know, there’s no difference. And yes economists can actually persuade the public of things, which is the hardest to believe part of the entire paper given what people believe about economics.

I didn’t like The Great Gatsby (the book) either when I was forced to read it, not great at all, do not recommend. I don’t put it in ‘least favorite book’ territory like Tracing Woods does, but I respect that take. My least favorite book, by this criteria, would probably be One Hundred Years of Solitude. Absolutely dreadful. It’s actually amazing how consistently awful were the fiction books schools forced me to read.

Who believes in astrology? Astrology is the Platonic ideal of Obvious Nonsense, so you can use belief in it as a way to measure various group differences. Intelligence is the biggest predictor of non-belief listed in the abstract, followed by education, which makes sense. Religiosity and spirituality are null effects. That speaks poorly of religiosity, since all the major religions are in agreement that astrology is bunk. Whereas it speaks well of spirituality, because it seems like it should be positively correlated to astrology, especially given that right-wing individuals believe in astrology less.

The most interesting one is no impact of ‘scientific trust’ on astrological belief. You would think that belief in science, whether it was real science or Science™, would mean you trusted the scientists who tell you astrology is Obvious Nonsense. This isn’t the case, suggesting that a lot of ‘trust in science’ is actually ‘trust’ in general.

Things we need to do way more:

Ryan Peterson: My friend’s startup uses facial recognition to identify employees entering the office and then plays the walk-out theme song of their choice as if they were a WWE superstar.

Would this even be legal in Germany? No wonder Europe is falling behind.

Arbital has been incorporated into LessWrong.

Washington Post will be writing in its op-eds every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets. They’ll cover other topics too, but the arguments against personal liberties and free markets will be left to others.

As a very strong supporter of both personal liberties and free markets, I love this.

In response to this, there were a bunch of people on the left who got Big Mad and accused Bezos of some sort of betrayal of democracy. To which I say, thank you for letting us know who you are and what you think of free markets and personal liberties. Whereas I saw some on the right, who have not exactly been the biggest free market fans recently, and have a spotty record on personal liberties, cheering this on, so maybe negative polarization can work in our favor for once?

Walks are great. The best walks are aimful walks, where you have an ultimate destination in mind from which you will gain value, but ideally you can proceed there and back at a leisurely pace and wander while doing so. However your amount of physical activity is not fixed, so you can and should also go on aimless walks, which both help you stay active and can help you think better about various things, either alone or with a companion or two.

LessOnline 2 will take place at Lighthaven, from May 30 to June 1. I plan on being there. LessOnline 1 was pretty awesome and I’m excited to run it back. Last time I ran a makeshift ‘show the Zvi process’ workshop, haven’t decided what if anything I’ll run this time. Early bid pricing lasts until end of March.

The Survival and Flourishing Fund is planning another $10mm-$20mm in grants this year, and also offer a matching pledge program where you decide the terms of the match and in exchange get a (unspecified) boost in priority.

If you are a charity whose goals are compatible with Jaan’s priorities, or especially if you are a good fit for the freedom or fairness tracks, I highly recommend that you apply. The cost is low and the upside is high. And who know, perhaps you will even appear in a future version of The Big Nonprofits Post if I happen to be one of the recommenders for your round.

Foresight is doing small, fast grants (~$10k) for projects related to aging and nanotech.

Calling local Magic gamers: The NYC Invitational Series is coming, starting with the NYC Pauper Open on May 25 at the Upper West Side Hex, building towards an end-of-year invitational. Local game stores are invited to reach out to get in on the fun.

Wincent, a crypto HFT firm where I did a bit of consulting for recently and they seemed pretty cool, is looking for someone with 5+ years of quant experience in HFT willing to relocate to Bratislava, Slovakia.

While we’re on that subject, of course, my official trading experience was at Jane Street Capital, which is always hiring. It didn’t work out for me but they’re great people and if you’re going to do that kind of work it’s a pretty great place.

The Taylor Tomlinson Crowd Confessions compilations are consistently hilarious.

Suzy Weiss argues that comedians should not be hot. I strongly disagree. This is a confusion of the wonderful fact that comedians are allowed to not be hot – which is great – with saying that hotness, or more precisely actually looking good by being not only hot but also well-dressed, shouldn’t be allowed. A central example here (that Suzy uses) is Tina Fey, who is definitely hot, and was hot even when she was playing the intentionally not hot Liz Lemon. Suzy Weiss argues that being ugly, here, is an asset.

To me, that’s exactly the proof that the thesis doesn’t hold water. There’s nothing wrong with hot. The idea that people who are hot, or otherwise advantaged, don’t have problems to use for material, is Obvious Nonsense. What you don’t want is for the hot to crowd out the not hot.

Consider music. In music, the product is fully audio, and yet being hot is increasingly a huge advantage that crowds out the not hot. It’s really tough to be an ugly (or even Hollywood homely) rock star, especially as a woman. That means we’ve missed out on tons of great musicians, and the exceptions that make it anyway prove the rule (but for obvious reasons there will be no examples here).

Yes, the best music was made about when you were 13-14 years old.

Alec Stapp: Funny how most people legit believe this.

Philly Gov: Yeah that’s crazy but it also happens to be right specifically in regards to me.

Alec Stapp: Same.

That comes from this paper, but the paper says the peak is around 23.5 years old, whereas the graph here is much earlier.

I am a strange case, in that I didn’t listen to essentially any non-kids non-classical music until college, and I did only a small amount of ‘listening to what is coming out right now.’ So not a representative case, but I very much prefer older music than that, in general. But I do notice that I have a strong preference for the particular relatively new songs I did listen to about that time, including the ones that get reinvented every so often. So there’s that.

I do notice that when I sample new music from recent decades I usually hate it, to the point where I essentially have given up on playlists of hot new music. They are consistently very bad. New (to me!) older music that stood the test of time tends to work better, down to ~1965 or so, which is well before I was born.

My actual music theory is that in micro terms the public has no false positives once songs are at least a few years old. Marketing can make fetch happen for a month or two, but it fades. Your hits that last are your hits for a reason. One hit wonder songs are always bangers and almost always yes it was their best song when I investigate. Artists that break out, break out for a reason (although it can involve looks or dance moves or hard work and so on). The public does offer false negatives – there are gems they don’t appreciate – but that’s largely due to lack of exposure and opportunity.

The public’s macro preferences are of course up for debate. Their genre preferences are wrong, but they are entitled to their opinions on that.

Will Severance stick the landing? Jeff Maurer is skeptical. I agree the prior is to be skeptical, but the vibes tell me to be optimistic this time around. I very much get the sense that they know where things are going and what story they are telling. I’m also at the point where I’m mostly willing to endorse the show even if they only half stick the landing.

I am very happy that Anora won Best Picture but a modest minimum worldwide gross required for Oscar eligibility, at least for Best Picture, seems like a very good idea.

If you have a Billboard Top 40 single this year, there is about a 40% chance you will never have one again. The turnover in 1962-64, which is what the article here is looking at, was high but not crazy high.

Waymo factory in Phoenix shows about 2,000 cars.

Great to hear but also how are we celebrating such a small number of cars? Let’s go.

Unfortunately, growth has otherwise been slower than I hoped and expected.

Timothy Lee: Weekly driverless Waymo trips:

May 2023: 10,000

May 2024: 50,000

August 2024: 100,000

October 2024: 150,000

February 2025: 200,000

Pretty good but growth rate seems to be slowing a bit.

Sunder Pichai: Exciting new @Waymo milestone: Waymo One is now serving 200k+ paid trips each week across LA, Phoenix and SF – that’s 20x growth in less than two years! Up next: Austin, Atlanta and Miami.

New York is alas likely to take a while due to regulatory concerns. But it’s a real shame to see the latest +50k take a full four months. We need to be on an exponential here, people! This now looks kind of linear and I am not here for that, very literally.

Waymo expands to an initial service area on ‘the Peninsula’ near Palo Alto:

It’s so weird that this new area does not yet connect to the existing San Francisco coverage zone, but actual usage patterns are often not what you would think they are.

Kevin Kwok: Waymo is executing a textbook pincer movement against SFO.

Give me Waymo in East Bay and to SFO and I’ll be a lot more tempted to visit.

Well, you can’t have Waymos yet in New York, so can I interest you in armed guards?

Nikita Bier: Over the last few months, I’ve been advising @bookprotectors: a new app for ordering an on-demand security detail. Or more simply: Uber with guns.

Today, they’re debuting in Los Angeles and NYC at No. 3 on the App Store.

If you have a hot date this weekend, pick her up in a Protector.

5 hour minimum booking. All ex-military or ex-law enforcement.

Skynot: $100, min is 5hrs

Meanwhile, where the self-driving matters most, trucking unions attempt to fight back against the inevitable self-driving trucks.

Because our world is bonkers crazy, their top weapon are orange triangles? As in, if a truck stops, within 10 minutes you have to put out orange triangles. But a driverless truck has no way to do that, and so far Aurora has been unable to get a waiver, because they can’t show an alternative that would be at least as safe – never mind that obviously the self-driving trucks will overall be vastly safer. So now they’re in court.

If they don’t get an exception, Aurora won’t have to have a person in every truck. It does mean they have a Snow-Crash-pizza-delivery-style 10-minute countdown to ‘rescue’ any given truck that runs into trouble. So there needs to be someone 10 minutes or less away from every truck at all times. That means you need a lot of trucks to justify the humans who are constantly on call to leap into action with orange triangles.

The timeline of development of Balatro, by its creator. You love to see it.

Evidence on the Hot Hand in Jeopardy. I think the study underestimates the extent to which being hot and each correct answer inform skill differences, and also how much small differences in skill or being hot should impact wagering size. Remember that contestants have very high uncertainty about their skills in terms of knowledge and also ability to execute, and that they can actively improve their skills over the course of the game, and that confidence actually matters.

Also people think extremely poorly about this question. I asked o1-pro and got an answer that was a mix of stating obvious considerations plus complete nonsense. The impact here is only $100-$500 more per wager. That’s not as much as one might think, and the experienced players who don’t vary their wagers probably are mostly just using an established heuristic. Partly this is to keep their focus on other things.

It’s not even clear if being a stronger player should in general make you wager more – if you need variance you should probably risk everything even if you’re under 50%, if you’re sufficiently confident might as well risk it all to win more and more money, it’s in a weird in-between situation (or when you don’t like your chances in this particular category), or especially where you’re in a close 3-way race where polarizing your score is a bad idea until you can break 70%+, where you want to do anything else.

If I was going on Jeopardy for real, I would likely have AI build me a game simulator, because I have actual no idea what the right strategy is here, and it’s important.

This is part of a longstanding tradition where economists analyze people’s decisions, only take into account half the considerations involved, and declare actions irrational.

Sports have an analytics problem, in that teams and players are Solving For the Equilibrium, and that is often resulting in less appealing games. What to do?

As always, don’t hate the player, change the game. The rules have to adjust. The tricky part is that it can be extremely difficult to preserve the things that make the game great, especially while also preserving the game’s traditions and continuity.

MLB largely solved its ‘games take forever’ problem, but has a pitchers being pulled too early problem rapidly getting even worse, and a severe strikeout problem.

The pitchers being pulled issue can be solved via rules change, in particular the double hook, which helps in other ways too.

Strikeouts are trickier, but the solution there is also likely to try and limit pitching changes, combined perhaps with moving the mound back, perhaps in exchange you pull back the fences so home runs are harder and more balls end up in play. I would experiment with aggressive solutions here, even things like ‘make the ball a little bigger,’ or ‘formalize that the strike zone shrinks when you have two strikes and expands when you have three balls.’

The NBA has a 3-point shot problem. An occasional three pointer is fine, but things are very out of hand. The math on 3-point shots is too good, and the weird part is how long it took everyone to notice.

Or at least I think it’s out of hand. Many agree. Others like the current game.

The obvious place to start if you want to change things back, other than ‘move the three point line back,’ is to only award two shots rather than three if you are fouled on a three point shot except in the last two minutes of the game. Another more radical idea is to strengthen two point shots, by treating shooting fouls like a 2-point goaltending if the ball hits the rim, note you can adjust what counts as a foul to taste.

The NFL’s major shift is teams go for it more on fourth down, but that’s good. They warn that there are shifts towards pass-heavy games, but that’s the kind of change that you can fix with rules tweaks, as the NFL has lots of ‘fiddly bits’ in its rules, especially regarding penalties, that are already constantly adjusted.

US sports betting revenue grows from $11.04b in 2023 to $13.71b in 2024, with sportsbooks holding onto 9.3% of each dollar wagered (up from 9.1%). We have passed that awkward ‘every single ad is for a sportsbook’ stage but growth continues.

Small facts.

Big facts.

If you want them.

News you can use?

Blink twice.

Discussion about this post

Monthly Roundup #28: March 2025 Read More »