Kris Guyer – Page 8

Common factors link rise in pedestrian deaths—fixing them will be tough

Cars, pedestrian deaths, road deaths, road safety / Kris Guyer / February 12, 2025

American roads have grown deadlier for everyone, but the toll on pedestrians has been disproportionate. From a record low in 2009, the number of pedestrians being killed by vehicles rose 83 percent by 2022 to the highest it’s been in 40 years. During that time, overall traffic deaths increased by just 25 percent. Now, a new study from AAA has identified a number of common factors that can explain why so many more pedestrians have died.

Firstly, no, it’s not because there are more SUVs on the road, although these larger and taller vehicles are more likely to kill or seriously injure a pedestrian in a crash. And no, it’s not because everyone has a smartphone, although using one while driving is a good way to increase your chances of hitting someone or something. These and some other factors (increased amount of driving, more alcohol consumption) have each played a small role, but even together, they don’t explain the magnitude of the trend.

For a while, researchers started seeing that the increased pedestrian death toll was almost entirely happening after dark and on urban arterial roads—this has continued to be true through 2022, the AAA report says.

Together with the Collaborative Sciences Centre for Road Safety, AAA conducted a trio of case studies looking at road safety data from Albuquerque, New Mexico; Charlotte, North Carolina; and Memphis, Tennessee, to drill down into the phenomenon.

And common factors did emerge. Pedestrian crashes on arterial roads during darkness were far more likely to be fatal and were more common in older neighborhoods, more socially deprived neighborhoods, neighborhoods with more multifamily housing, and neighborhoods with more “arts/entertainment/food/accommodations” workers. As with so many of the US’s ills, this problem is one that disproportionately affects the less affluent.

Common factors link rise in pedestrian deaths—fixing them will be tough Read More »

22 states sue to block new NIH funding policy—court puts it on hold

Grant funding, grants, HHS, indirect costs, lawsuit, NIH, Policy, Science / Kris Guyer / February 10, 2025

Regardless of what else they might be doing, the indirect costs pay for various critical campus services, including at research hospitals. Suddenly having that amount slashed would create a major budgetary shortfall that will be hard to cover without shutting programs down.

The resulting damage to research campuses in their states was one of the harms cited by the states that joined the suit as part of their effort to establish standing. The other was the harm caused by the general slowdown in biomedical research that the policy will trigger, which the states argue will delay the availability of treatments for their citizens.

The states taking part include most of those that were won by Kamala Harris in 2024, as well as states that voted for Trump but currently have Democratic governors and attorneys general: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Notably, the suit only seeks relief from the altered NIH policy for institutions located in those states; they’re essentially leaving states controlled by Republicans to suffer the damages caused by the new policy.

Allegations and backup allegations

The states allege that the new NIH policy, by applying to all grants in progress, is equivalent to rewriting a contract. It cites an earlier legal decision that determined that “Once the [Notice of Award] is signed or money is drawn, the [Notice of Award] and the grant terms are binding on the grantee and the government.” Beyond that, the states argue the policy violates two separate pieces of legislation.

The first is the Administrative Procedures Act, which describes the processes that agencies need to follow when they formulate formal rules to translate legislation into implementations. Among other things, this prevents agencies from formulating rules that are “arbitrary and capricious.” It argues that, by including audits and negotiations in the process of setting them, the current individualized indirect rates are anything but.

By contrast, the states argue, there’s no significant foundation for the 15 percent indirect rate. “The Rate Change Notice is arbitrary and capricious in, among other ways, its failure to articulate the bases for the categorical rate cap of 15 percent,” the suit alleges, “its failure to consider the grant recipients’ reliance on their negotiated rates, and its disregard for the factual findings that formed the bases for the currently operative negotiated indirect cost rates.”

22 states sue to block new NIH funding policy—court puts it on hold Read More »

After Trump killed a report on nature, researchers push ahead with release

biodiversity, climate change, Donald Trump, environmental justice, nature loss, Policy, Science / Kris Guyer / February 10, 2025

But one word in the federal register notice describing key principles of the nature report—”inclusive”—may have triggered Trump’s decision to end it. Christopher Schell, a lead author of a chapter called “Nature and Equity in the US,” told The Times that his chapter’s focus on environmental justice may have made the project an easy target for Trump.

On day one of his administration, Trump issued executive orders rescinding Biden-era priorities and ending several environmental justice and equity initiatives in government. According to an analysis from two experts at Harvard’s energy and environmental law program, Carrie Jenks and Sara Dewey, Trump claimed, “without explanation,” that the Biden initiatives violate “longstanding Federal civil-rights laws” and “threaten the safety of American men, women, and children.”

Now “federal agencies no longer have a mandate, unless required under separate rules, to consider how their actions will disproportionately harm low-income communities, communities of color, and other vulnerable populations,” the Harvard researchers warned.

Trump contradictions in environmental orders

Grist reported on the scramble to salvage a wide range of Trump-purged climate data like the National Nature Assessment that could help protect vulnerable communities by remaining in the public sphere. That report noted that climate data access was similarly lost during Trump’s prior administration, when “as much as 20 percent of the EPA’s website became inaccessible to the public” and the government’s “use of the term ‘climate change’ decreased by more than a third.”

But even if some members of the public remain jaded from Trump’s prior administration, researchers working on the nature report told The Times that their biggest concern in moving forward with the report is that the general public views government studies as more authoritative than independent studies. The fear is that even if the report is eventually published, its impact could be watered down without the government’s involvement or endorsement.

After Trump killed a report on nature, researchers push ahead with release Read More »

CenturyLink nightmares: Users keep asking Ars for help with multi-month outages

centurylink, Features, Policy / Kris Guyer / February 10, 2025

What were you waiting for?

After getting confirmation that the outages were fixed, we asked the CenturyLink spokesperson whether the company has “a plan to make sure that customer outages are always fixed when a customer contacts the company instead of waiting for a reporter to contact the company on the customer’s behalf weeks later.”

Here is the answer we got from CenturyLink: “Restoring customer service is a priority, and we apologized for the delay. We’re looking at why there was a repair delay.”

It appears that nothing has changed. Even as John’s problem was fixed, CenturyLink users in other states suffered even longer outages, and no one showed up for scheduled repair appointments. These outages weren’t fixed until late January—and only after the customers contacted us to ask for help.

Karen Kurt, a resident of Sheridan, Oregon, emailed us on January 23 to report that she had no CenturyLink DSL Internet service since November 4, 2024. One of her neighbors was also suffering through the months-long outage.

“We have set up repair tickets only to have them voided and/or canceled,” Kurt told us. “We have sat at home on the designated repair day from 8–5 pm, and no one shows up.” Kurt’s CenturyLink phone and Internet service costs $172.04 a month, according to a recent bill she provided us. Kurt said she also has frequent CenturyLink phone outages, including some stretches that occurred during the three-month Internet outage.

Separately, a CenturyLink customer named David Stromberg in Bellevue, Washington, told us that his phone service had been out since September 16. He repeatedly scheduled repair appointments, but the scheduled days went by with no repairs. “Every couple weeks, they do this and the tech doesn’t show up,” he said.

“Quick” fixes

As far as we can tell, there weren’t any complex technical problems preventing CenturyLink from ending these outages. Once the public relations department heard from Ars, CenturyLink sent technicians to each area, and the customers had their services restored.

On the afternoon of January 24, we contacted CenturyLink about the outage affecting Kurt and her neighbor. CenturyLink restored service for both houses less than three hours later, finally ending outages that lasted over 11 weeks.

On Sunday, January 26, we informed CenturyLink’s public relations team about the outage affecting Stromberg in Washington. Service was restored about 48 hours later, ending the phone outage that lasted well over four months.

As we’ve done in previous cases, we asked CenturyLink why the outages lasted so long and why the company repeatedly failed to show up for repair appointments. We did not receive any substantive answer. “Services have been restored, and appropriate credits will be provided,” the CenturyLink spokesperson replied.

Stromberg said getting the credit wasn’t so simple. “We contacted them after service was restored. They credited the full amount, but it took a few phone calls. They also gave us a verbal apology,” he told us. He said they pay $80.67 a month for CenturyLink phone service and that they get Internet access from Comcast.

Kurt said she had to call CenturyLink each month the outage dragged on to obtain a bill credit. Though the outage is over, she said her Internet access has been unreliable since the fix, with webpages often taking painfully long times to load.

Kurt has only a 1.5Mbps DSL connection, so it’s not a modern Internet connection even on a good day. CenturyLink told us it found no further problems on its end, so it appears that Kurt is stuck with what she has for now.

Desperation

“We are just desperate,” Kurt told us when she first reached out. Kurt, a retired teacher, said she and her husband were driving to a library to access the Internet and help grandchildren with schoolwork. She said there’s no reliable cell service in the area and that they are on a waiting list for Starlink satellite service.

Kurt said her husband once suggested they switch to a different Internet provider, and she pointed out that there aren’t any better options. On the Starlink website, entering their address shows they are in an area labeled as sold out.

Although repair appointments came and went without a fix, Kurt said she received emails from CenturyLink falsely claiming that service had been restored. Kurt said she spoke with technicians doing work nearby and asked if CenturyLink is trying to force people to drop the service because it doesn’t want to serve the area anymore.

Kurt said a technician replied that there are some areas CenturyLink doesn’t want to serve anymore but that her address isn’t on that list. A technician explained that they have too much work, she said.

CenturyLink has touted its investments in modern fiber networks but hasn’t upgraded the old copper lines in Kurt’s area and many others.

“This is DSL. No fiber here!” Kurt told us. “Sometimes when things are congested, you can make a sandwich while things download. I have been told that is because this area is like a glass of water. At first, there were only a few of us drinking out of the glass. Now, CenturyLink has many more customers drinking out of that same glass, and so things are slower/congested at various times of the day.”

Kurt said the service tends to work better in mid-morning, early afternoon, after 9 pm on weeknights, and on weekends. “Sometimes pages take a bit of time to load. That is especially frustrating while doing school work with my grandson and granddaughter,” she said.

CenturyLink Internet even slower than expected

After the nearly three-month outage ended, Kurt told us on January 27 that “many times, we will get Internet back for two or three days, only to lose it again.” This seemed to be what happened on Sunday, February 2, when Kurt told us her Internet stopped working again and that she couldn’t reach a human at CenturyLink. She restarted the router but could not open webpages.

We followed up with CenturyLink’s public relations department again, but this time, the company said its network was performing as expected. “We ran a check and called Karen regarding her service,” CenturyLink told us on February 3. “Everything looks good on our end, with no problems reported since the 24th. She mentioned that she could access some sites, but the speed seemed really slow. We reminded her that she has a 1.5Mbps service. Karen acknowledged this but felt it was slower than expected.”

Kurt told us that her Internet is currently slower than it was before the outage. “Before October, at least the webpages loaded,” she said. Now, “the pages either do not load, continue to attempt to load, or finally time out.”

While Kurt is suffering from a lack of broadband competition, municipalities sometimes build public broadband networks when private companies fail to adequately serve their residents. ISPs such as CenturyLink have lobbied against these efforts to expand broadband access.

In May 2024, we wrote about how public broadband advocates say they’ve seen a big increase in opposition from “dark money” groups that don’t have to reveal their donors. At the time, CenturyLink did not answer questions about specific donations but defended its opposition to government-operated networks.

“We know it will take everyone working together to close the digital divide,” CenturyLink told us then. “That’s why we partner with municipalities on their digital inclusion efforts by providing middle-mile infrastructure that supports last-mile networks. We have and will continue to raise legitimate concerns when government-owned networks create an anti-competitive environment. There needs to be a level playing field when it comes to permitting, right-of-way fees, and cross subsidization of costs.”

Stuck with CenturyLink

Kurt said that CenturyLink has set a “low bar” for its service, and it isn’t even meeting that low standard. “I do not use the Internet a lot. I do not use the Internet for gaming or streaming things. The Internet here would never be able to do that. But I do expect the pages to load properly and fully,” she said.

Kurt said she and her husband live in a house they built in 2007 and originally were led to believe that Verizon service would be available. “Prior to purchasing the property, we did our due diligence and sought out all utility providers… Verizon insisted it was their territory on at least two occasions,” she said.

But when it was time to install phone and Internet lines, it turned out Verizon didn’t serve the location, she said. This is another problem we’ve written about multiple times—ISPs incorrectly claiming to offer service in an area, only to admit they don’t after a resident moves in. (Verizon sold its Oregon wireline operations to Frontier in 2010.)

“We were stuck with CenturyLink,” and “CenturyLink did not offer Internet when we first built this home,” Kurt said. They subscribed to satellite Internet offered by WildBlue, which was acquired by ViaSat in 2009. They used satellite for several years until they could get CenturyLink’s DSL Internet.

Now they’re hoping to replace CenturyLink with Starlink, which uses low-Earth orbit satellites that offer faster service than older satellite services. They’re on the waiting list for Starlink and are interested in Amazon’s Kuiper satellite service, which isn’t available yet.

“We are hoping one of these two vendors will open up a spot for us and we can move our Internet over to satellite,” Kurt said. “We have also heard that Starlink and Amazon are going to be starting up phone service as well as Internet. That would truly be a gift to us. If we could move all of our services over to something reliable, our life would be made so much easier.”

Not enough technicians for copper network

John, the Colorado resident who had a three-week CenturyLink outage, said his default DSL speed is 10Mbps downstream and 2Mbps upstream. He doubled that by getting a second dedicated line to create a bonded connection, he said.

When John set up repair appointments during the outage, the “dates came and went without the typical ‘your tech’s on their way’ email, without anyone showing up,” he said. John said he repeatedly called CenturyLink and was told there was a bad cable that was being fixed.

“Every time I called, I’d get somebody who said that it was a bad cable and it was being fixed. Every single time, they’d say it would be fixed by 11 pm the following day,” he said. “It wasn’t, so I’d call again. I asked to talk with a supervisor, but that was always denied. Every time, they said they’d expedite the request. The people I talked with were all very nice and very apologetic about our outage, but they clearly stayed in their box.”

John still had the contact information for the CenturyLink technician who set up his bonded connection and messaged him around the same time he contacted Ars. When a CenturyLink employee finally showed up to fix the problem, he “found that our DSL was out because our modem was bad, and the phone was out because there was a bad dial-tone card in the closest pedestal. It took this guy less than an hour to get us back working—and it wasn’t a broken cable,” John said.

John praised CenturyLink’s local repair team but said his requests for repairs apparently weren’t routed to the right people. A CenturyLink manager told John that the local crew never got the repair ticket from the phone-based customer service team, he said.

The technician who fixed the service offered some insight into the local problems, John told us. “He said that in the mountains of western Boulder County, there are a total of five techs who know how to work with copper wire,” John told us. “All the other employees only work with fiber. CenturyLink is losing the people familiar with copper and not replacing them, even though copper is what the west half of the county depends on.”

Lumen says it has 1.08 million fiber broadband subscribers and 1.47 million “other broadband subscribers,” defined as “customers that primarily subscribe to lower speed copper-based broadband services marketed under the CenturyLink brand.”

John doesn’t know whether his copper line will ever be upgraded to fiber. His house is 1.25 miles from the nearest fiber box. “I wonder if they’ll eventually replace lines like the one to our house or if they’ll drop us as customers when the copper line eventually degrades to the point it’s not usable,” he said.

Jon is a Senior IT Reporter for Ars Technica. He covers the telecom industry, Federal Communications Commission rulemakings, broadband consumer affairs, court cases, and government regulation of the tech industry.

CenturyLink nightmares: Users keep asking Ars for help with multi-month outages Read More »

Punch-Out’s Mike Tyson has been defeated in under two minutes for the first time

gaming, mike tyson, Nintendo, Punch-Out!!, speedrunning, yes / Kris Guyer / February 9, 2025

Bismuth explains the unreasonable luck needed for a record-setting Tyson fight at around the 56: 30 mark in this 2024 video.

Summoning Salt says Tyson here gave him a “perfect pattern” during his first phase of endless uppercuts, something that happens only 1 in 1,600 bouts. And later in the fight, the game’s random-number generator cooperated by adding only an extra 16 frames of delay (~0.8 in-game seconds) compared to a “perfect” run. Combined, Summoning Salt estimates that Tyson will only punch this quickly once every 7,000 to 10,000 attempts.

“It’s over,” Summoning Salt said live on Twitch when the record-setting match was finished, in a surprisingly even tone that came over what sounds very much like a dropped controller. “I thought I’d be a lot more excited about this. Holy shit, dude! It’s fucking over… Dude, am I dreaming right now? … I’m sorry I’m so quiet. I’m kind of in shock right now that that just happened.”

Where do we go from here?

With his near-perfect combination of both skill and luck, Summoning Salt’s new record surpasses his own previous world record of precisely 2: 00.00 on the in-game clock. That mark, set just eight months ago, was just three frames off of displaying 1: 59 on the in-game timer for the first time.

Summoning Salt was also the first runner to break the 2: 01 barrier on Tyson in 2020, a feat he has since replicated just 15 times over tens of thousands of attempts. “There’s essentially no difference between all of those [2:00.xx] fights and this one, except I got better luck from Tyson on this fight,” he writes. “Finally, after nearly half a decade, the 1: 59 has happened.”

Summoning Salt discusses the difficulty of beating 2: 13 on Tyson in 2020, months before setting a then-record time of 2: 00 himself

Ironically, just before posting his first 2: 00.xx fight in 2020, Summoning Salt posted a video discussing in part just how difficult it was for speedrunners to beat Matt Turk’s 2007 record of 2: 13 on Tyson. “For years it was just this impossibly fast time that the top players just couldn’t get close to,” Summoning Salt said at the time. “Of course, other top players fought Tyson years later, but their best efforts came up short… they couldn’t touch it. It stood alone.”

Summoning Salt is now just over a second off of the tool-assisted speedrun record of 1: 58.61, which uses emulated gameplay to fight a theoretical “perfect” bout every time. But after spending years on what he writes “is the greatest gaming achievement I have ever accomplished,” Summoning Salt seems ready to hang up his virtual boxing gloves for good.

“I have no plans to ever improve this time,” he writes. “It will be beaten by somebody one day, likely by matching this fight and then getting better luck in phase 3. I have no interest in competing for that but am extremely proud to have gotten the first sub 2 ever on Mike Tyson.”

Punch-Out’s Mike Tyson has been defeated in under two minutes for the first time Read More »

Rocket Report: Another hiccup with SpaceX upper stage; Japan’s H3 starts strong

ArianeGroup, Arianespace, blue origin, Commercial space, falcon 9, h3 rocket, Japan, launch, military space, rocket report, Science, Space, spacex, starship, vast / Kris Guyer / February 8, 2025

Vast’s schedule for deploying a mini-space station in low-Earth orbit was always ambitious.

A stack of 21 Starlink Internet satellites arrives in orbit Tuesday following launch on a Falcon 9 rocket. Credit: SpaceX

Welcome to Edition 7.30 of the Rocket Report! The US government relies on SpaceX for a lot of missions. These include launching national security satellites, putting astronauts on the Moon, and global broadband communications. But there are hurdles—technical and, increasingly, political—on the road ahead. To put it generously, Elon Musk, without whom much of what SpaceX does wouldn’t be possible, is one of the most divisive figures in American life today.

Now, a Democratic lawmaker in Congress has introduced a bill that would end federal contracts for special government employees (like Musk), citing conflict-of-interest concerns. The bill will go nowhere with Republicans in control of Congress, but it is enough to make me pause and think. When the Trump era passes and a new administration takes the White House, how will they view Musk? Will there be an appetite to reduce the government’s reliance on SpaceX? To answer this question, you must first ask if the government will even have a choice. What if, as is the case in many areas today, there’s no viable replacement for the services offered by SpaceX?

As always, we welcome reader submissions. If you don’t want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

Blue Origin flight focuses on lunar research. For the first time, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space venture has put its New Shepard suborbital rocket ship through a couple of minutes’ worth of Moon-level gravity, GeekWire reports. The uncrewed mission, known as NS-29, sent 30 research payloads on a 10-minute trip from Blue Origin’s Launch Site One in West Texas. For this trip, the crew capsule was spun up to 11 revolutions per minute, as opposed to the typical half-revolution per minute. The resulting centrifugal force was equivalent to one-sixth of Earth’s gravity, which is what would be felt on the Moon.

Gee, that’s cool … The experiments aboard Blue Origin’s space capsule examined how to process lunar soil to extract resources and how to manufacture solar cells on the Moon for Blue Origin’s Blue Alchemist project. Another investigated how moondust gets electrically charged and levitated when exposed to ultraviolet light. These types of experiments in partial gravity can be done on parabolic airplane flights, but those only provide a few seconds of the right conditions to simulate the Moon’s gravity. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Orbex announces two-launch deal with D-Orbit. UK-based rocket builder Orbex announced Monday that it has signed a two-launch deal with Italian in-orbit logistics provider D-Orbit, European Spaceflight reports. The deal includes capacity aboard two launches on Orbex’s Prime rocket over the next three years. D-Orbit aggregates small payloads on rideshare missions (primarily on SpaceX rockets so far) and has an orbital transfer vehicle for ferrying satellites to different altitudes after separation from a launch vehicle. Orbex’s Prime rocket is sized for the small satellite industry, and the company aims to debut it later this year.

Thanks to fresh funding? … Orbex has provided only sparse updates on its progress toward launching the Prime rocket. What we do know is that Orbex suspended plans to develop a spaceport in Scotland to focus its resources on the Prime rocket itself. Despite little evidence of any significant accomplishments, Orbex last month secured a $25 million investment from the UK government. The timing of the launch agreement with D-Orbit begs the question of whether the UK government’s backing helped seal the deal. As Andrew Parsonson of European Spaceflight writes: “Is this a clear indication of how important strong institutional backing is for the growth of privately developed launch systems in Europe?” (submitted by EllPeaTea)

The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger’s and Stephen Clark’s reporting on all things space is to sign up for our newsletter. We’ll collect their stories and deliver them straight to your inbox.

Sign Me Up!

Falcon 9’s upper stage misfires again. The second stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket remained in orbit following a launch Saturday from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California. The rocket successfully deployed a new batch of Starlink Internet satellites but was supposed to reignite its engine for a braking maneuver to head for a destructive reentry over the Pacific Ocean. While airspace warning notices from the FAA showed a reentry zone over the eastern Pacific Ocean, publicly available US military tracking continued to show the upper stage in orbit this week. Sources also told Ars that SpaceX delayed two Falcon 9 launches this week by a day to allow time for engineers to evaluate the problem.

3 in 6 months … This is the third time since last July that the Falcon 9’s upper stage has encountered a problem in flight. On one occasion, the upper stage failed to reach its targeted orbit, leading to the destruction of 20 Starlink satellites. Then, an upper stage misfired during a deorbit burn after an otherwise successful launch in September, causing debris to fall outside of the pre-approved danger area. After both events, the FAA briefly grounded the Falcon 9 rocket while SpaceX conducted an investigation. This time, an FAA spokesperson said the agency won’t require an investigation. “All flight events occurred within the scope of SpaceX’s licensed activities,” the spokesperson told Ars.

Vast tests hardware for commercial space station. Vast Space has started testing a qualification model of its first commercial space station but has pushed back the launch of that station into 2026, Space News reports. In an announcement Thursday, Vast said it completed a proof test of the primary structure of a test version of its Haven-1 space station habitat at a facility in Mojave, California. During the testing, Vast pumped up the pressure inside the structure to 1.8 times its normal level and conducted a leak test. “On the first try we passed that critical test,” Max Haot, chief executive of Vast, told Space News.

Not this year … It’s encouraging to see Vast making tangible progress in developing its commercial space station. The privately held company is one of several seeking to develop a commercial outpost in low-Earth orbit to replace the International Space Station after its scheduled retirement in 2030. NASA is providing funding to two industrial teams led by Blue Origin and Voyager Space, which are working on different space station concepts. But so far, Vast’s work has been funded primarily through private capital. The launch of the Haven-1 outpost, which Vast previously said could happen this year, is now scheduled no earlier than May 2026. The spacecraft will launch in one piece on a Falcon 9 rocket, and the first astronaut crew to visit Haven-1 could launch a month later. Haven-1 is a pathfinder for a larger commercial station called Haven-2, which Vast intends to propose to NASA. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

H3 deploys Japanese navigation satellite. Japan successfully launched a flagship H3 rocket Sunday and put into orbit a Quasi-Zenith Satellite (QZS), aiming to improve the accuracy of global positioning data for various applications, Kyodo News reports. After separation from the H3 rocket, the Michibiki 6 satellite will climb into geostationary orbit, where it will supplement navigation signals from GPS satellites to provide more accurate positioning data to users in Japan and surrounding regions, particularly in mountainous terrain and amid high-rise buildings in large cities. The new satellite joins a network of four QZS spacecraft launched by Japan beginning in 2010. Two more Quasi-Zenith Satellites are under construction, and Japan’s government is expected to begin development of an additional four regional navigation satellites this year.

A good start … After a failed inaugural flight in 2023, Japan’s new H3 rocket has reeled off four consecutive successful launches in less than a year. This may not sound like a lot, but the H3 has achieved its first four successful flights faster than any other rocket since 2000. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket completed its first four successful flights in a little more than two years, and United Launch Alliance’s Atlas V logged its fourth flight in a similar timeframe. More than 14 months elapsed between the first and fourth successful flight of Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket. The H3 is an expendable rocket with no roadmap to reusability, so its service life and commercial potential are likely limited. But the rocket is shaping up to provide reliable access to space for Japan’s space agency and military, while some of its peers in Europe and the United States struggle to ramp up to a steady launch cadence. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Europe really doesn’t like relying on Elon Musk. Europe’s space industry has struggled to keep up with SpaceX for a decade. The writing was on the wall when SpaceX landed a Falcon 9 booster for the first time. Now, European officials are wary of becoming too reliant on SpaceX, and there’s broad agreement on the continent that Europe should have the capability to launch its own satellites. In this way, access to space is a strategic imperative for Europe. The problem is, Europe’s new Ariane 6 rocket is just not competitive with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and there’s no concrete plan to counter SpaceX’s dominance.

So here’s another terrible idea … Airbus, Europe’s largest aerospace contractor with a 50 percent stake in the Ariane 6 program, has enlisted Goldman Sachs for advice on how to forge a new European space and satellite company to better compete with SpaceX. France-based Thales and the Italian company Leonardo are part of the talks, with Bank of America also advising on the initiative. The idea that some bankers from Goldman and Bank of America will go into the guts of some of Europe’s largest institutional space companies and emerge with a lean, competitive entity seems far-fetched, to put it mildly, Ars reports.

The FAA still has some bite. We’re now three weeks removed from the most recent test flight of SpaceX’s Starship rocket, which ended with the failure of the vehicle’s upper stage in the final moments of its launch sequence. The accident rained debris over the Atlantic Ocean and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Unsurprisingly, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded Starship and ordered an investigation into the accident on the day after the launch. This decision came three days before the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who counts Musk as one of his top allies. So far, the FAA hasn’t budged on its requirement for an investigation, an agency spokesperson told Ars.

Debris field … In the hours and days after the failed Starship launch, residents and tourists in the Turks and Caicos shared images of debris scattered across the islands and washing up onshore. The good news is there were no injuries or reports of significant damage from the wreckage, but the FAA confirmed one report of minor damage to a vehicle located in South Caicos. It’s rare for debris from US rockets to fall over land during a launch. This would typically only happen if a launch failed at certain parts of the flight. Before now, there has been no public record of any claims of third-party property damage in the era of commercial spaceflight.

DOD eager to reap the benefits of Starship. A Defense Department unit is examining how SpaceX’s Starship vehicle could be used to support a broader architecture of in-space refueling, Space News reports. A senior adviser at the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) said SpaceX approached the agency about how Starship’s refueling architecture could be used by the wider space industry. The plan for Starship is to transfer cryogenic propellants between tankers, depots, and ships heading to the Moon, Mars, or other deep-space destinations.

Few details available … US military officials have expressed interest in orbital refueling to support in-space mobility, where ground controllers have the freedom to maneuver national security satellites between different orbits without worrying about running out of propellant. For several years, Space Force commanders and Pentagon officials have touted the importance of in-space mobility, or dynamic space operations, in a new era of orbital warfare. However, there are reports that the Space Force has considered zeroing out a budget line item for space mobility in its upcoming fiscal year 2026 budget request.

A small step toward a fully reusable European rocket. The French space agency CNES has issued a call for proposals to develop a reusable upper stage for a heavy-lift rocket, European Spaceflight reports. This project is named DEMESURE (DEMonstration Étage SUpérieur REutilisable / Reusable Upper Stage Demonstration), and it marks one of Europe’s first steps in developing a fully reusable rocket. That’s all good, but there’s a sense of tentativeness in this announcement. The current call for proposals will only cover the earliest phases of development, such as a requirements evaluation, cost estimation review, and a feasibility meeting. A future call will deal with the design and fabrication of a “reduced scale” upper stage, followed by a demonstration phase with a test flight, recovery, and reuse of the vehicle. CNES’s vision is to field a fully reusable rocket as a successor to the single-use Ariane 6.

Toes in the water … If you’re looking for reasons to be skeptical about Project DEMESURE, look no further than the Themis program, which aims to demonstrate the recovery and reuse of a booster stage akin to SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Themis originated in a partnership between CNES and European industry in 2019, then ESA took over the project in 2020. Five years later, the Themis demonstrator still hasn’t flown. After some initial low-altitude hops, Themis is supposed to launch on a high-altitude test flight and maneuver through the entire flight profile of a reusable booster, from liftoff to a vertical propulsive landing. As we’ve seen with SpaceX, recovering an orbital-class upper stage is a lot harder than landing the booster. An optimistic view of this announcement is that anything worth doing requires taking a first step, and that’s what CNES has done here. (submitted by EllPeaTea)

Next three launches

Feb. 7: Falcon 9 | Starlink 12-9 | Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida | 18: 52 UTC

Feb. 8: Electron | IoT 4 You and Me | Māhia Peninsula, New Zealand | 20: 43 UTC

Feb. 10: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-10 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, California | 00: 03 UTC

Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet.

Rocket Report: Another hiccup with SpaceX upper stage; Japan’s H3 starts strong Read More »

Boeing has informed its employees that NASA may cancel SLS contracts

NASA, Space / Kris Guyer / February 7, 2025

The primary contractor for the Space Launch System rocket, Boeing, is preparing for the possibility that NASA cancels the long-running program.

On Friday, with less than an hour’s notice, David Dutcher, Boeing’s vice president and program manager for the SLS rocket, scheduled an all-hands meeting for the approximately 800 employees working on the program. The apparently scripted meeting lasted just six minutes, and Dutcher didn’t take questions.

During his remarks, Dutcher said Boeing’s contracts for the rocket could end in March and that the company was preparing for layoffs in case the contracts with the space agency were not renewed. “Cold and scripted” is how one person described Dutcher’s demeanor.

Giving a 60-day notice

The aerospace company, which is the primary contractor for the rocket’s large core stage, issued the notifications as part of the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (or WARN) Act, which requires US employers with 100 or more full-time employees to provide a 60-day notice in advance of mass layoffs or plant closings.

“To align with revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations, today we informed our Space Launch Systems team of the potential for approximately 400 fewer positions by April 2025,” a Boeing spokesperson told Ars. “This will require 60-day notices of involuntary layoff be issued to impacted employees in coming weeks, in accordance with the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. We are working with our customer and seeking opportunities to redeploy employees across our company to minimize job losses and retain our talented teammates.”

The timing of Friday’s hastily called meeting aligns with the anticipated release of President Trump’s budget proposal for fiscal year 2026. This may not be an entire plan but rather a “skinny” budget that lays out a wish list of spending requests for Congress and some basic economic projections. Congress does not have to act on Trump’s budget priorities.

Boeing has informed its employees that NASA may cancel SLS contracts Read More »

DOGE can’t use student loan data to dismantle the Education Dept., lawsuit says

data privacy, department of education, doge, Donald Trump, elon musk, financial data, Online Privacy, Policy, student loans / Kris Guyer / February 7, 2025

Microsoft declined to comment, but allegedly the DOGE employees are “using AI software accessed through Microsoft’s cloud computing service Azure to pore over every dollar of money the department disburses, from contracts to grants to work trip expenses,” one source told the Post.

The lawsuit noted that several DOE employees have tried to block DOGE’s access by raising red flags up the command chain, but DOE leadership directly instructed lower-level employees to grant DOGE access, the same source alleged.

A big concern is that DOGE funneling education data into AI systems will cause sensitive data to be stored in a way that makes it more vulnerable to cyberattacks or data breaches. Another issue could be the AI system being error-prone or potentially hallucinating data that is driving decisions on major DOE cuts.

On Thursday, a DOE deputy assistant secretary for communications, Madi Biedermann, issued a statement insisting that DOGE employees are federal employees who have undergone background checks to be granted requisite security clearances.

“There is nothing inappropriate or nefarious going on,” Biedermann said.

Trump has similarly waved away concerns over DOGE’s work at DOE and other departments that officials worry are experiencing a “blitz” of seemingly unlawful power grabs, the Post reported. On Monday, Trump told reporters that “if there’s a conflict” with DOGE accessing Americans’ data, “then we won’t let him get near it.” But seemingly until Trump agrees there’s a conflict, Musk’s work with DOGE must go on, Trump said.

“We’re trying to shrink government, and he can probably shrink it as well as anybody else, if not better,” Trump suggested.

While thousands of Americans are suing, confused over whether they need to urgently protect their private financial data, one DOE staffer told the Post that DOGE “is working with almost unbelievable speed.” The staffer ominously suggested that it may already be too late to protect Americans from invasive probes or defend departments against cuts.

“They have a playbook, which is to get access to the data,” the staffer told the Post. “And once they’re in, it’s already over.”

DOGE can’t use student loan data to dismantle the Education Dept., lawsuit says Read More »

The EV transition hits some snags at Porsche and Audi

Audi, Cars, EV adoption, porsche / Kris Guyer / February 7, 2025

Now Audi has gone a little further, abandoning its almost-new nomenclature in the process. As naming conventions go, Audi at least tried to keep things a little logical when it told everyone last summer that henceforth, odd-numbered Audis—A3, A5, Q5, Q7, and so on—would be internal combustion or hybrids, and even-numbered Audis—A4, A6, Q6, Q8—would be electric, or e-tron.

This was the case when we went to see some of those new Audis in the studio last summer. There was an all-new gasoline-powered A5, which comes in a handsome fastback sedan or even more handsome Avant (station wagon) version, that won’t come to the US.

There’s also an all-new, fully electric A6, available as a sedan but also as a handsome fastback sedan and even more handsome Avant. This one also isn’t coming to America.

As of this week, things are back to where they used to be. Forget the odd and even distinction; for now, it means nothing again. A gasoline-powered A6 will break cover on March 3, Audi says. And as for names? “A” means a low floor, and “Q” means a high floor (i.e., SUV or crossover).

The EV transition hits some snags at Porsche and Audi Read More »

The UK got rid of coal—where’s it going next?

Energy, energy policy, renewable energy, Science, Sustainability / Kris Guyer / February 6, 2025

Clean, but not fully green

The UK has transitioned to a lower-emission grid. Now comes the hard part.

With the closure of its last coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, on September 30, 2024, the United Kingdom has taken a significant step toward its net-zero goals. It’s no small feat to end the 142-year era of coal-powered electricity in the country that pioneered the Industrial Revolution. Yet the UK’s journey away from coal has been remarkably swift, with coal generation plummeting from 40 percent of the electricity mix in 2012 to just two percent in 2019, and finally to zero in 2024.

As of 2023, approximately half of UK electricity generation comes from zero-carbon sources, with natural gas serving as a transitional fuel. The UK aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent to 48 percent by 2027 and achieve net-zero by 2050. The government set a firm target to generate all of its electricity from renewable sources by 2040, emphasizing offshore wind and solar energy as the keys.

What will things look like in the intervening years, which will lead us from today to net-zero? Everyone’s scenario, even when based in serious science, boils down to a guessing game. Yet some things are more certain than others, the most important of these factors being the ones that are on solid footing beneath all of the guesswork.

Long-term goals

The closure of all UK coal-fired power stations in 2024 marked a crucial milestone in the nation’s decarbonization efforts. Coal was once the dominant source of electricity generation, but its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions made it a primary target for phase-out. The closure of these facilities has significantly reduced the UK’s carbon footprint and paved the way for cleaner energy sources.

With transition from coal, natural gas is set to play a crucial role as a “transition fuel.” The government’s “British Energy Security Strategy” argued that gas must continue to be an important part of the energy mix. It positioned gas as the “glue” that holds the electricity system together during the transition. Even the new Starmer government recognizes that, as the country progresses towards net-zero by 2050, the country may still use about a quarter of the gas it currently consumes.

Natural gas emits approximately half as much carbon dioxide as coal when combusted, making it a cleaner alternative during the shift to renewable energy sources. In 2022, natural gas accounted for around 40 percent of the UK’s electricity generation, while coal contributed less than two percent. This transition phase is deemed by the government to be essential as the country ramps up the capacity of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, to fill gaps left by the reduction of fossil fuels. The government aims to phase out natural gas that’s not coupled with carbon capture by 2035, but in the interim, it serves as a crucial bridge, ensuring energy security while reducing overall emissions.

But its role is definitely intended to be temporary; the UK’s long-term energy goal is to reduce reliance on all fossil fuels (starting with imported supplies), pushing for a rapid transition to cleaner, domestic sources of energy.

The government’s program has five primary targets:

Fully decarbonizing the power system (2035)
Ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars (2035)
Achieving “Jet Zero” – net-zero UK aviation emissions (2050)
Creating 30,000 hectares of new woodland per year (2025)
Generating 50 percent of its total electricity from renewable sources by 2030

Offshore wind energy has emerged as this strategy’s key component, with significant investments being made in new wind farms. Favorable North Sea wind conditions have immense potential. In recent years, a surge in offshore wind investment has translated into several large-scale developments in advanced planning stages or now under construction.

The government has set a target to increase offshore wind capacity to 50 GW by 2030, up from around 10 GW currently. This initiative is supported by substantial financial commitments from both the public and private sectors. Recent investment announcements underscore the UK’s commitment to this goal and the North Sea’s central role in it. In 2023, the government announced plans to invest $25 billion (20 billion British pounds) in carbon capture and offshore wind projects in the North Sea over the next two decades. This investment is expected to create up to 50,000 jobs and help position the UK as a leader in clean energy technologies.

This was part of investments totaling over $166 million (133 million pounds) to support the development of new offshore wind farms, which are expected to create thousands of jobs and stimulate local economies.

In 2024, further investments were announced to support the expansion of offshore wind capacity. The government committed to holding annual auctions for new offshore wind projects to meet its goal of quadrupling offshore wind capacity by 2030. These investments are part of a broader strategy to leverage the UK’s expertise in offshore industries and transition the North Sea from an oil and gas hub to a clean-energy powerhouse.

Offshore wind

As the UK progresses toward its net-zero target, it faces both challenges and opportunities. While significant progress has been made in decarbonizing the power sector, the national government’s Climate Change Committee has noted that emissions reductions need to accelerate in other sectors, particularly agriculture, land use, and waste. However, with continued investment in renewable energy and supportive policies, the UK is positioning itself to become a leader in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.

Looking ahead, 2025 promises to be a landmark year for the UK’s green energy sector, with further investment announcements and projects in the pipeline.

The Crown Estate, which manages the seabed around England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, has made significant strides in facilitating new leases for offshore wind development. In 2023, the Crown Estate Scotland announced the successful auction of seabed leases for new offshore wind projects, totaling a capacity of 5 gigawatts. And in 2024, the government plans to hold its next major leasing round, which could see the deployment of an additional 7 GW of offshore wind capacity.

The UK government also approved plans for the Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which will be the world’s largest offshore wind farm when completed. Located off the coast of Yorkshire, this massive project will ultimately generate enough electricity to power millions of homes. Dogger is a joint venture linking SSE Renewables, Equinor, and Vattenfall.

This is in line with the government’s broader strategy to enhance energy independence and resilience, particularly in light of the geopolitical uncertainties affecting global energy markets. The UK’s commitment to renewable energy is not merely an environmental imperative; it is also an economic opportunity. By harnessing the vast potential of the North Sea, the UK aims not only to meet its net-zero targets but also to drive economic growth and job creation in the green energy sector, ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.

Recognizing wind’s importance, the UK government launched a 2024 consultation on plans to develop a new floating wind energy sector.

The transition to a greener economy is projected to create up to 400,000 jobs by 2030 across various sectors, including manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of renewable energy technologies.

Its growing offshore wind industry is expected to attract billions in investment, solidifying the UK’s position as a leader in the global green energy market. The government’s commitment to offshore wind development, underscored by substantial investments in 2023 and anticipated announcements for 2024, signals a robust path forward.

Moving away from gas

Still, the path ahead remains challenging, requiring a multifaceted approach that balances economic growth, energy security, and environmental sustainability.

With the transition from coal, natural gas is now poised to play the central role as a bridge fuel. While natural gas emits fewer greenhouse gases than coal, it is still a fossil fuel and contributes to carbon emissions. However, in the short term, natural gas can help maintain energy security and provide a reliable source of electricity during periods of low renewable energy output. Additionally, natural gas can be used to produce hydrogen, potentially coupled with carbon capture, enabling a clean energy carrier that can be integrated into the existing energy infrastructure.

To support the country’s core clean energy goals, the government is implementing specific initiatives, although the pace has been quite uneven. The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is being strengthened to incentivize industrial decarbonization. The government has also committed to investing in key green industries alongside offshore wind: carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS), and nuclear energy.

Combined, these should allow the UK to limit its use of natural gas and capture the emissions associated with any remaining fossil fuel use.

While both countries are relying heavily on wind power, the UK’s energy-generation transformations are different from Germany’s. While both governments push to make some progress on the path to net-zero carbon emissions, their approaches and timelines differ markedly.

Energiewende, Germany’s energy transition, is characterized by what some critics consider to be overly ambitious goals for achieving net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. Those critics think that the words don’t come close to matching the required levels of either government or private sector financial commitment. Together with the Bundestag, the chancellor has set interim targets to reduce emissions by 65 percent by 2030 and 88 percent by 2040 (both compared to 1990 levels). Germany’s energy mix is heavily reliant on renewables, with a goal of sourcing 80 percent of its electricity from renewable energy by 2030—and achieving 100 percent by 2035.

However, Germany has faced challenges due to continued reliance on coal and natural gas, which made it difficult to reach its emissions goals.

The UK, however, appears to be ahead in terms of immediate reductions in coal use and the integration of renewables into its energy mix. Germany’s path is more complex, as it balances its energy transition with energy security concerns, particularly in light of how Russia’s war affects gas supplies.

The UK got rid of coal—where’s it going next? Read More »

DeepSeek is “TikTok on steroids,” senator warns amid push for government-wide ban

AI, app ban, CCP, china, china mobile, Chinese Communist Party, DeepSeek, FCC, government ban, Policy / Kris Guyer / February 6, 2025

But while the national security concerns require a solution, Curtis said his priority is maintaining “a really productive relationship with China.” He pushed Lutnick to address how he plans to hold DeepSeek—and the CCP in general—accountable for national security concerns amid ongoing tensions with China.

Lutnick suggested that if he is confirmed (which appears likely), he will pursue a policy of “reciprocity,” where China can “expect to be treated by” the US exactly how China treats the US. Currently, China is treating the US “horribly,” Lutnick said, and his “first step” as Commerce Secretary will be to “repeat endlessly” that more “reciprocity” is expected from China.

But while Lutnick answered Curtis’ questions about DeepSeek somewhat head-on, he did not have time to respond to Curtis’ inquiry about Lutnick’s intentions for the US AI Safety Institute (AISI)—which Lutnick’s department would oversee and which could be essential to the US staying ahead of China in AI development.

Viewing AISI as key to US global leadership in AI, Curtis offered “tools” to help Lutnick give the AISI “new legs” or a “new life” to ensure that the US remains responsibly ahead of China in the AI race. But Curtis ran out of time to press Lutnick for a response.

It remains unclear how AISI’s work might change under Trump, who revoked Joe Biden’s AI safety rules establishing the AISI.

What is clear is that lawmakers are being pressed to preserve and even evolve the AISI.

Yesterday, the chief economist for a nonprofit called the Foundation for the American Innovation, Samuel Hammond, provided written testimony to the US House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, recommending that AISI be “retooled to perform voluntary audits of AI models—both open and closed—to certify their security and reliability” and to keep America at the forefront of AI development.

“With so little separating China and America’s frontier AI capabilities on a technical level, America’s lead in AI is only as strong as our lead in computing infrastructure,” Hammond said. And “as the founding member of a consortium of 280 similar AI institutes internationally, the AISI seal of approval would thus support the export and diffusion of American AI models worldwide.”

DeepSeek is “TikTok on steroids,” senator warns amid push for government-wide ban Read More »

H5N1 bird flu spills over again; Nevada cows hit with different, deadly strain

bird flu, cows, dairy, H5N1, health, Infectious disease, nevada, outbreak, USDA / Kris Guyer / February 5, 2025

The spread of H5N1 bird flu in dairy cows is unprecedented; the US outbreak is the first of its kind in cows. Virologists and infectious disease experts fear that the continued spread of the virus in domestic mammals like cows, which have close interactions with people, will provide the virus countless opportunities to spill over and adapt to humans.

So far, the US has tallied 67 human cases of H5N1 since the start of 2024. Of those, 40 have been in dairy workers, while 23 were in poultry workers, one was the Louisiana case who had contact with wild and backyard birds, and three were cases that had no clear exposure.

Whether the D1.1 genotype will pose a yet greater risk for dairy workers remains unclear for now. Generally, H5N1 infections in humans have been rare but dangerous. According to data collected by the World Health Organization, 954 H5N1 human cases have been documented globally since 2003. Of those, 464 were fatal, for a fatality rate among documented cases of 49 percent. But, so far, nearly all of the human infections in the US have been relatively mild, and experts don’t know why. There are various possible factors, including transmission route, past immunity of workers, use of antivirals, or something about the B3.13 genotype specifically.

For now, the USDA says that the detection of the D1.1 genotype in cows doesn’t change their eradication strategy. It further touted the finding as a “testament to the strength of our National Milk Testing Strategy.”

H5N1 bird flu spills over again; Nevada cows hit with different, deadly strain Read More »

Author name: Kris Guyer