Author name: Rejus Almole

thousands-of-customers-imperiled-after-nation-state-ransacks-f5’s-network

Thousands of customers imperiled after nation-state ransacks F5’s network

Customers position BIG-IP at the very edge of their networks for use as load balancers and firewalls, and for inspection and encryption of data passing into and out of networks. Given BIG-IP’s network position and its role in managing traffic for web servers, previous compromises have allowed adversaries to expand their access to other parts of an infected network.

F5 said that investigations by two outside intrusion-response firms have yet to find any evidence of supply-chain attacks. The company attached letters from firms IOActive and NCC Group attesting that analyses of source code and build pipeline uncovered no signs that a “threat actor modified or introduced any vulnerabilities into the in-scope items.” The firms also said they didn’t identify any evidence of critical vulnerabilities in the system. Investigators, which also included Mandiant and CrowdStrike, found no evidence that data from its CRM, financial, support case management, or health systems was accessed.

The company released updates for its BIG-IP, F5OS, BIG-IQ, and APM products. CVE designations and other details are here. Two days ago, F5 rotated BIG-IP signing certificates, though there was no immediate confirmation that the move is in response to the breach.

The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security agency has warned that federal agencies that rely on the appliance face an “imminent threat” from the thefts, which “pose an unacceptable risk.” The agency went on to direct federal agencies under its control to take “emergency action.” The UK’s National Cyber Security Center issued a similar directive.

CISA has ordered all federal agencies it oversees to immediately take inventory of all BIG-IP devices in networks they run or in networks that outside providers run on their behalf. The agency went on to direct agencies to install the updates and follow a threat-hunting guide that F5 has also issued. BIG-IP users in private industry should do the same.

Thousands of customers imperiled after nation-state ransacks F5’s network Read More »

cdc-tormented:-hr-workers-summoned-from-furlough-to-lay-off-themselves,-others

CDC tormented: HR workers summoned from furlough to lay off themselves, others


Traumatized CDC has lost 33% of its workforce this year, union says.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 9: Bullet holes are seen in windows at the Centers For Disease Control (CDC) Global Headquarters following a shooting that left two dead, on August 9, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. On August 8, a gunman opened fire near the headquarters of the Centers for Disease Control, killing a DeKalb County Police Department officer before being found dead by gunfire. Credit: Getty | Elijah Nouvelage

The dust is still settling at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after a mass layoff on Friday, which former employees at the beleaguered agency are describing as a massacre.

In separate press briefings on Tuesday, a network of terminated CDC staff that goes by the name the National Public Health Coalition, and the union representing employees at the agency discussed what the wide-scale cuts mean for the American people, as well as the trauma, despair, and damage they have wreaked on the workers of the once-premier public health agency.

In a normal federal layoff—called a reduction in force, or RIF—the agency would be given a full outline of the roles and branches or divisions affected, as well as some explanation for the cuts, such as alleged fraud, abuse, or redundancy. However, the Trump administration has provided no such information or explanation, leaving current and former employees to essentially crowdsource what has been lost and only guess at the possible reasons.

The numbers

The union representing CDC workers, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) Local 2883, has been assessing the cuts since termination emails began arriving in employee inboxes late Friday. The union estimates that the Trump administration sent termination notices to 1,300 CDC employees on Friday, in what they called an illegal “politically-motivated stunt.” Of those 1,300 terminations, around 700 were rescinded, beginning on Saturday.

The Trump administration said the 700 rescinded terminations were sent due to a “coding error.” But CDC workers didn’t buy that explanation, saying all the terminations were intentional, and some were only reversed after backlash erupted when people realized what the administration was trying to cut—for example, terminating the experts responding to domestic measles outbreaks and those responding to an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo who received RIF notices that were later rescinded. Still, with the rescissions, some 600 terminations appear to remain.

In all, the union estimated that the CDC has lost 33 percent of its workforce since the start of the Trump administration. In January, there were roughly 13,000 CDC workers total. Since then, about 3,000 have been fully separated from the agency, including 600 laid off in a RIF on April 1, and 2,400 who were either fired or forced out amid pressure campaigns. An additional 1,300 have been laid off but are not yet fully separated from the agency; they remain on paid administrative leave but are unable to do their work.

In the RIF Friday, laid-off employees said they were given notices that list their termination effective date as December 8, leaving a 60-day period in which they would be on administrative leave.

The RIF was carried out amid an ongoing government shutdown over a health care funding dispute, and the Trump administration has claimed that the RIF is a consequence of the shutdown. But the union, along with federal employment lawyers and even some senior government officials, say a RIF during a shutdown is illegal; a temporary lapse in government funding is not a legitimate reason for a RIF under federal regulations, and it runs afoul of a federal law that prohibits the government from incurring new costs during a shutdown, such as by promising severance packages.

Brutal cuts

In practice, a RIF amid a shutdown added more trauma to the demoralized staff. In opening remarks, Local AFGE 2883 President Yolanda Jacobs noted that the CDC Human Resources staff had been furloughed during the shutdown but were temporarily brought back into work just so they could process termination letters—including their own. A terminated CDC employee who spoke on condition of anonymity said that more than 90 percent of the HR staff is now gone.

Among the terminations were also mental health workers who were helping CDC staff recover from an August attack, in which a gunman fired over 500 rounds at CDC buildings full of agency employees and killed a local police officer.

Another terminated CDC worker who spoke on the condition of anonymity discussed the personal toll of the RIF. She had worked at the agency for over two decades and learned of her termination Friday night as she was doing dishes after making homemade pizza with her family—money worries kept them from ordering out. Her phone “started going crazy” as coworkers were checking in after receiving their RIF notices. She dug out her work laptop, which had been set aside since she was furloughed, to find her own RIF notice at the top of her inbox.

As text messages continued to come in through the night, she said it was “heartbreaking and devastating” when she realized the Trump administration was “actually dismantling us.”

“These are just hardworking Americans who just want to do their job, who just want to help people, who want to make sure the correct information is out there [and] that we are preventing things from happening,” she said.

Since the RIF has sunk in, she has started to worry more for her family and their finances. During the furlough, paychecks are uncertain. And her effective termination date in December will land between holidays, when hiring is slow. She worried about affording Christmas presents for her family.

She also said that staff have asked about getting other jobs while on administrative leave but were told that in order to do that, they would need to get approval from the CDC’s ethics office to ensure there were no conflicts of interest. But staff can’t actually do that because everyone at the ethics office also got RIF notices.

Losses

Throughout the briefings yesterday, staff highlighted that the RIF did not just trim here and there, as one might expect with cuts designed to make the organization leaner. Instead, it lopped off entire teams and branches, completely shutting down whole lines of work.

One former CDC employee spoke broadly of big hits to experts in chronic disease, global health, and the National Center for Health Statistics, which runs critical data collection that states and local health departments rely on. The CDC’s library staff are all gone. Suicide prevention experts have been cut, as well as communications and policy staff, who develop briefings and provide information to Congress members.

Abigail Tighe, a former CDC employee with National Public Health Coalition, tried to put the cuts in context, saying: “We are losing the people with all the knowledge to prevent childhood drownings, child abuse, and suicide. We’re losing the experts who help us track and understand the health and safety needs of our communities [and] the brave and brilliant professionals who, on a moment’s notice, respond to new and unknown outbreaks across the world. And that’s just a few examples.”

A terminated scientist who spoke on condition of anonymity said that her entire office was eliminated in the RIF. “My heart breaks for my colleagues and friends who have been tormented, traumatized, shot at, threatened daily. These are kind, hardworking, thoughtful people whose lives are being overturned,” she said.

But, “ultimately,” she said, “I am terrified for the public safety of our country.”

Photo of Beth Mole

Beth is Ars Technica’s Senior Health Reporter. Beth has a Ph.D. in microbiology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and attended the Science Communication program at the University of California, Santa Cruz. She specializes in covering infectious diseases, public health, and microbes.

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us-demand-grows-for-chinese-cars-despite-privacy-and-security-fears

US demand grows for Chinese cars despite privacy and security fears

More than half of American car buyers would consider a Chinese car brand for their next purchase, an increase of almost 25 percent compared to last year. That’s according to a survey of prospective car buyers conducted annually by the research firm AutoPacific. And yes, those car buyers are conscious of the privacy and security fears.

AutoPacific spoke to 18,000 people who said they were planning to buy or lease a new car within the next three years for its 2025 Future Attribution Demand Study, and the company has been releasing snippets of data as it analyzes them, ahead of the full report’s release later this year.

There has already been at least one surprise. Last year, partially automated driving systems like General Motors’ Super Cruise or Ford’s BlueCruise, or those developed by Tesla, were not in high demand. This year, that tech went to the top of the most-wanted list, with 43 percent of consumers saying they want hands-free partial automation. The same percentage also indicated a demand for rear automatic emergency braking. Wireless device charging, No. 1 in the list in 2024, didn’t make the top 15 for 2025.

Can I buy a Huawei to drive on the highway?

In 2024, just 53 percent of surveyed consumers said they were familiar with Chinese cars, and only 41 percent said they would consider one. This year, 65 percent were familiar with Chinese brands, and 51 percent said they’d consider one for their next vehicle.

Huawei came first among the Chinese brands, with 27 percent prepared to consider one. Xiaomi placed second (23 percent), with the Tesla-outselling BYD in third place (19 percent).

A chart from AutoPacific showing 2024 and 2025 attitudes towards Chinese cars.

A chart from AutoPacific showing 2024 and 2025 attitudes toward Chinese cars. Credit: AutoPacific

Chinese cars are fast being recognized for offering a level of digital integration that is far ahead of the connected cars on sale in the US. “Aside from the responsiveness of screens… I feel like people hate screens here because they’re not done very well,” said Kevin Williams, an automotive journalist who has spent time getting to know the latest in Chinese vehicles.

“Versus in China, it just seems so intuitive,” he said. “Not just how easy it is to use, and I barely understand any sort of Chinese characters… [but] just like the support it has for popular apps. When I was in the Xiaomi SU7, it had a full-fat, full-service Apple Music, like it looks like what I would get on a computer. And it wasn’t just Apple Music; they had whatever the Chinese equivalent of Spotify and other popular apps—Chinese TikTok—they all have these full-fat apps that run with, like, no real running issues.”

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google’s-ai-videos-get-a-big-upgrade-with-veo-3.1

Google’s AI videos get a big upgrade with Veo 3.1

It’s getting harder to know what’s real on the Internet, and Google is not helping one bit with the announcement of Veo 3.1. The company’s new video model supposedly offers better audio and realism, along with greater prompt accuracy. The updated video AI will be available throughout the Google ecosystem, including the Flow filmmaking tool, where the new model will unlock additional features. And if you’re worried about the cost of conjuring all these AI videos, Google is also adding a “Fast” variant of Veo.

Veo made waves when it debuted earlier this year, demonstrating a staggering improvement in AI video quality just a few months after Veo 2’s release. It turns out that having all that video on YouTube is very useful for training AI models, so Google is already moving on to Veo 3.1 with a raft of new features.

Google says Veo 3.1 offers stronger prompt adherence, which results in better video outputs and fewer wasted compute cycles. Audio, which was a hallmark feature of the Veo 3 release, has reportedly improved, too. Veo 3’s text-to-video was limited to 720p landscape output, but there’s an ever-increasing volume of vertical video on the Internet. So Veo 3.1 can produce both landscape and portrait 16:9 video.

Google previously said it would bring Veo video tools to YouTube Shorts, which use a vertical video format like TikTok. The release of Veo 3.1 probably opens the door to fulfilling that promise. You can bet Veo videos will show up more frequently on TikTok as well now that it fits the format. This release also keeps Google in its race with OpenAI, which recently released a Sora iPhone app with an impressive new version of its video-generating AI.

Google’s AI videos get a big upgrade with Veo 3.1 Read More »

chatgpt-erotica-coming-soon-with-age-verification,-ceo-says

ChatGPT erotica coming soon with age verification, CEO says

On Tuesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced that the company will allow verified adult users to have erotic conversations with ChatGPT starting in December. The change represents a shift in how OpenAI approaches content restrictions, which the company had loosened in February but then dramatically tightened after an August lawsuit from parents of a teen who died by suicide after allegedly receiving encouragement from ChatGPT.

“In December, as we roll out age-gating more fully and as part of our ‘treat adult users like adults’ principle, we will allow even more, like erotica for verified adults,” Altman wrote in his post on X (formerly Twitter). The announcement follows OpenAI’s recent hint that it would allow developers to create “mature” ChatGPT applications once the company implements appropriate age verification and controls.

Altman explained that OpenAI had made ChatGPT “pretty restrictive to make sure we were being careful with mental health issues” but acknowledged this approach made the chatbot “less useful/enjoyable to many users who had no mental health problems.” The CEO said the company now has new tools to better detect when users are experiencing mental distress, allowing OpenAI to relax restrictions in most cases.

Striking the right balance between freedom for adults and safety for users has been a difficult balancing act for OpenAI, which has vacillated between permissive and restrictive chat content controls over the past year.

In February, the company updated its Model Spec to allow erotica in “appropriate contexts.” But a March update made GPT-4o so agreeable that users complained about its “relentlessly positive tone.” By August, Ars reported on cases where ChatGPT’s sycophantic behavior had validated users’ false beliefs to the point of causing mental health crises, and news of the aforementioned suicide lawsuit hit not long after.

Aside from adjusting the behavioral outputs for its previous GPT-40 AI language model, new model changes have also created some turmoil among users. Since the launch of GPT-5 in early August, some users have been complaining that the new model feels less engaging than its predecessor, prompting OpenAI to bring back the older model as an option. Altman said the upcoming release will allow users to choose whether they want ChatGPT to “respond in a very human-like way, or use a ton of emoji, or act like a friend.”

ChatGPT erotica coming soon with age verification, CEO says Read More »

google’s-photoshop-killer-ai-model-is-coming-to-search,-photos,-and-notebooklm

Google’s Photoshop-killer AI model is coming to search, Photos, and NotebookLM

NotebookLM added a video overview feature several months back, which uses AI to generate a video summary of the content you’ve added to the notebook. The addition of Nano Banana to NotebookLM is much less open-ended. Instead of entering prompts to edit images, NotebookLM has a new set of video styles powered by Nano Banana, including whiteboard, anime, retro print, and more. The original style is still available as “Classic.”

My favorite video.

NotebookLM’s videos are still somewhat limited, but this update adds a second general format. You can now choose “Brief” in addition to “Explainer,” with the option to add prompts that steer the video in the right direction. Although, that’s not a guarantee, as this is still generative AI. At least the style should be more consistent with the addition of Nano Banana.

The updated image editor is also coming to Google Photos, but Google doesn’t have a firm timeline. Google claims that its Nano Banana model is a “major upgrade” over its previous image-editing model. Conversational editing was added to Photos last month, but it’s not the Nano Banana model that has impressed testers over the summer. Google says that Nano Banana will arrive in the Photos app in the next few weeks, which should make those conversational edits much less frustrating.

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hans-koenigsmann,-who-investigated-all-of-spacex’s-rocket-failures,-is-going-to-space

Hans Koenigsmann, who investigated all of SpaceX’s rocket failures, is going to space

Then she kind of asked me, “Do you think I could be an astronaut?” I mean, technically, you don’t need your legs, and so on and so forth. When I realized that she meant New Shepard, I said, ‘Well, let me talk to people I know.’ So I called Audrey Powers (a Blue Origin engineer), and she said she loved the project. In a very subtle and slippery slope, I thought about this and said, “Actually, I think I can do this, too.”

The logic, for me, is that it doesn’t keep me from flying orbital. I’ve thought about this for a long time now because obviously I’m a risk person, so all kinds of things go through my head, right? And then there’s SpaceX and Blue, and all kinds of things go through my head there, too. So I talked to a lot of people, and there was not a single person who said, “No, you shouldn’t do that.” Yeah? That doesn’t mean that it’s right. But I asked people I’m not friends with, too, and they all said, “Well, why not?” So that’s how we ended up on this mission together.

Ars: What were your primary concerns about flying yourself? Was it safety? Was it the fact that you worked for SpaceX for 20 years and you were going to fly on Blue Origin?

Hans Koenigsmann: All of the above. I don’t know what they did for safety. I know what SpaceX did for safety. So I talked to a few people who worked there. And it all came down to the point that they would all fly on New Shepard. But for me, the ultimate discriminator is if you would let your children fly on it. And later, when we met them, I asked a lot of technical questions on the safety side, and I feel like they answered the majority of them thoughtfully and correctly. So on the safety side, I felt better after a while.

Hans Koenigsmann, who investigated all of SpaceX’s rocket failures, is going to space Read More »

new-starfleet-academy-trailer-debuts-at-nycc

New Starfleet Academy trailer debuts at NYCC

Rosta’s Caleb is front and center in the new trailer. We see him as a child with his mother (Tatiana Maslany), who is torn away from him by armed guards as Nus Braka cackles, “You hold on to how much you hate me right now, kid. It’ll keep you warm at night.” Cut to Captain Ake finding the now-grown Caleb and recruiting him to the Academy with a promise to help him find Nus Braka—presumably to exact some kind of revenge. We get to see instructors put the new cadets through their paces as they strive to be worthy of the Starfleet uniform. Love might be in the air for Caleb. And Captain Ake seems to have her own twisted history with Nus Braka.

As Ars senior editor Sam Axon pointed out in 2o23, there have been Kobayashi Maru references throughout the franchise, as well as substantial plotlines about the academy in The Next Generation and Deep Space Nine, among others. There were also Starfleet Academy video games in the 1990s for various platforms.

Star Trek: Starfleet Academy premieres on January 15, 2026, on Paramount+.

First look at Strange New Worlds S4

Let’s be honest, the third season of Strange New Worlds has been pretty uneven. But a course correction could be in the offing, judging by a four-and-a-half minute clip from the upcoming fourth season that was unveiled at NYCC. It’s an extended sequence in which Captain Pike (Anson Mount) and his crew respond to a distress signal from another ship, only to encounter a massive space storm that knocks out almost all their systems. They decide to take a shuttle to a nearby planet to gather some much-needed iridium to power their warp drive. (Is anyone else hearing echoes of Galaxy Quest and the hunt for a replacement beryllium sphere?)

Still, the tone does seem more of a return to form for the series. (For what it’s worth, producer Akiva Goldsman has attributed the S3 issues in part to production delays as a result of strikes and staffing changes.) The fourth season of Star Trek: Strange New Worlds is slated for release sometime next year. The series has already been renewed for a truncated fifth and final season of six episodes.

New Starfleet Academy trailer debuts at NYCC Read More »

how-close-are-we-to-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-vehicles?

How close are we to solid state batteries for electric vehicles?


Superionic materials promise greater range, faster charges and more safety.

In early 2025, Mercedes-Benz ran its first road tests of an electric passenger car powered by a prototype solid-state battery pack. The carmaker predicts the next-gen battery will increase the electric vehicle’s driving range to over 620 miles (1,000 kilometers). Credit: Mercedes-Benz Group

Every few weeks, it seems, yet another lab proclaims yet another breakthrough in the race to perfect solid-state batteries: next-generation power packs that promise to give us electric vehicles (EVs) so problem-free that we’ll have no reason left to buy gas-guzzlers.

These new solid-state cells are designed to be lighter and more compact than the lithium-ion batteries used in today’s EVs. They should also be much safer, with nothing inside that can burn like those rare but hard-to-extinguish lithium-ion fires. They should hold a lot more energy, turning range anxiety into a distant memory with consumer EVs able to go four, five, six hundred miles on a single charge.

And forget about those “fast” recharges lasting half an hour or more: Solid-state batteries promise EV fill-ups in minutes—almost as fast as any standard car gets with gasoline.

This may all sound too good to be true—and it is, if you’re looking to buy a solid-state-powered EV this year or next. Look a bit further, though, and the promises start to sound more plausible. “If you look at what people are putting out as a road map from industry, they say they are going to try for actual prototype solid-state battery demonstrations in their vehicles by 2027 and try to do large-scale commercialization by 2030,” says University of Washington materials scientist Jun Liu, who directs a university-government-industry battery development collaboration known as the Innovation Center for Battery500 Consortium.

Indeed, the challenge is no longer to prove that solid-state batteries are feasible. That has long since been done in any number of labs around the world. The big challenge now is figuring out how to manufacture these devices at scale, and at an acceptable cost.

Superionic materials to the rescue

Not so long ago, says Eric McCalla, who studies battery materials at McGill University in Montreal and is a coauthor of a paper on battery technology in the 2025 Annual Review of Materials Research, this heady rate of advancement toward powering electric vehicles was almost unimaginable.

Until about 2010, explains McCalla, “the solid-state battery had always seemed like something that would be really awesome—if we could get it to work.” Like current EV batteries, it would still be built with lithium, an unbeatable element when it comes to the amount of charge it can store per gram. But standard lithium-ion batteries use a liquid, a highly flammable one at that, to allow easy passage of charged particles (ions) between the device’s positive and negative electrodes. The new battery design would replace the liquid with a solid electrolyte that would be nearly impervious to fire—while allowing for a host of other physical and chemical changes that could make the battery faster charging, lighter in weight, and all the rest.

“But the material requirements for these solid electrolytes were beyond the state of the art,” says McCalla. After all, standard lithium-ion batteries have a good reason for using a liquid electrolyte: It gives the ionized lithium atoms inside a fluid medium to move through as they shuttle between the battery’s two electrodes. This back-and-forth cycle is how any battery stores and releases energy—the chemical equivalent of pumping water from a low-lying reservoir to a high mountain lake, then letting it run back down through a turbine whenever you need some power. This hypothetical new battery would somehow have to let those lithium ions flow just as freely—but through a solid.

Diagram of rechargable battery

Storing electrical energy in a rechargeable battery is like pumping water from a low-lying reservoir up to a high mountain lake. Likewise, using that energy to power an external device is like letting the water flow back downhill through a generator. The volume of the mountain lake corresponds to the battery’s capacity, or how much charge it can hold, while the lake’s height corresponds to the battery’s voltage—how much energy it gives to each unit of charge it sends through the device.

Credit: Knowable Magazine

Storing electrical energy in a rechargeable battery is like pumping water from a low-lying reservoir up to a high mountain lake. Likewise, using that energy to power an external device is like letting the water flow back downhill through a generator. The volume of the mountain lake corresponds to the battery’s capacity, or how much charge it can hold, while the lake’s height corresponds to the battery’s voltage—how much energy it gives to each unit of charge it sends through the device. Credit: Knowable Magazine

This seemed hopeless for larger uses such as EVs, says McCalla. Certain polymers and other solids were known to let ions pass, but at rates that were orders of magnitude slower than liquid electrolytes. In the past two decades, however, researchers have discovered several families of lithium-rich compounds that are “superionic”—meaning that some atoms behave like a crystalline solid while others behave more like a liquid—and that can conduct lithium ions as fast as standard liquid electrolytes, if not faster.

“So the bottleneck suddenly is not the bottleneck anymore,” says McCalla.

True, manufacturing these batteries can be a challenge. For example, some of the superionic solids are so brittle that they require special equipment for handling, while others must be processed in ultra-low humidity chambers lest they react with water vapor and generate toxic hydrogen sulfide gas.

Still, the suddenly wide-open potential of solid-state batteries has led to a surge of research and development money from funding agencies around the globe—not to mention the launch of multiple startup companies working in partnership with carmakers such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and many more. Although not all the numbers are public, investments in solid-state battery development are already in the billions of dollars worldwide.

“Every automotive company has said solid-state batteries are the future,” says University of Maryland materials scientist Eric Wachsman. “It’s just a question of, When is that future?”

The rise of lithium-ion batteries

Perhaps the biggest reason to ask that “when” question, aside from the still-daunting manufacturing challenges, is a stark economic reality: Solid-state batteries will have to compete in the marketplace with a standard lithium-ion industry that has an enormous head start.

“Lithium-ion batteries have been developed and optimized over the last 30 years, and they work really great,” says physicist Alex Louli, an engineer and spokesman at one of the leading solid-state battery startups, San Jose, California-based QuantumScape.

Diagram showing how li-ion battery works

Charging a standard lithium-ion battery (top) works by applying a voltage between cathode and anode. This pulls lithium atoms from the cathode and strips off an electron from each. The now positively charged lithium ions then flow across the membrane to the negatively charged anode. There, the ions reunite with the electrons, which flowed through an external circuit as an electric current. These now neutral atoms nest in the graphite lattice until needed again. The battery’s discharge cycle (bottom) is just the reverse: Electrons deliver energy to your cell phone or electric car as they flow via a circuit from anode to cathode, while lithium ions race through the membrane to meet them there.

Credit: Knowable Magazine

Charging a standard lithium-ion battery (top) works by applying a voltage between cathode and anode. This pulls lithium atoms from the cathode and strips off an electron from each. The now positively charged lithium ions then flow across the membrane to the negatively charged anode. There, the ions reunite with the electrons, which flowed through an external circuit as an electric current. These now neutral atoms nest in the graphite lattice until needed again. The battery’s discharge cycle (bottom) is just the reverse: Electrons deliver energy to your cell phone or electric car as they flow via a circuit from anode to cathode, while lithium ions race through the membrane to meet them there. Credit: Knowable Magazine

They’ve also gotten really cheap, comparatively speaking. When Japan’s Sony Corporation introduced the first commercial lithium-ion battery in 1991, drawing on a worldwide research effort dating back to the 1950s, it powered one of the company’s camcorders and cost the equivalent of $7,500 for every kilowatt-hour (KwH) of energy it stored. By April 2025 lithium-ion battery prices had plummeted to $115 per KwH, and were projected to fall toward $80 per KwH or less by 2030—low enough to make a new EV substantially cheaper than the equivalent gasoline-powered vehicle.

“Most of these advancements haven’t really been down to any fundamental chemistry improvements,” says Mauro Pasta, an applied electrochemist at the University of Oxford. “What’s changed the game has been the economies of scale in manufacturing.”

Liu points to a prime example: the roll-to-roll process used for the cylindrical batteries found in most of today’s EVs. “You make a slurry,” says Liu, “then you cast the slurry into thin films, roll the films together with very high speed and precision, and you can make hundreds and thousands of cells very, very quickly with very high quality.”

Lithium-ion cells have also seen big advances in safety. The existence of that flammable electrolyte means that EV crashes can and do lead to hard-to-extinguish lithium-ion fires. But thanks to the circuit breakers and other safeguards built into modern battery packs, only about 25 EVs catch fire out of every 100,000 sold, versus some 1,500 fires per 100,000 conventional cars—which, of course, carry around large tanks of explosively flammable gasoline.

In fact, says McCalla, the standard lithium-ion industry is so far ahead that solid-state might never catch up. “EVs are going to scale today,” he says, “and they’re going with the technology that’s affordable today.” Indeed, battery manufacturers are ramping up their lithium-ion capacity as fast as they can. “So I wonder if the train has already left the station.”

But maybe not. Solid-state technology does have a geopolitical appeal, notes Ying Shirley Meng, a materials scientist at the University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory. “With lithium-ion batteries the game is over—China already dominates 70 percent of the manufacturing,” she says. So for any country looking to lead the next battery revolution, “solid-state presents a very exciting opportunity.”

Performance potential

Another plus is improved performance. At the very time that EV buyers are looking for ever greater range and charging speed, says Louli, the standard lithium-ion recipe is hitting a performance plateau. To do better, he says, “you have to go back and start doing some material innovations”—like those in solid-state batteries.

Take the standard battery’s liquid electrolyte, for example. It’s not only flammable, but also a limitation on charging speed. When you plug in an electric car, the charging cable acts as an external circuit that’s applying a voltage between the battery’s two electrodes, the cathode and the anode. The resulting electrical forces are strong enough to pull lithium atoms out of the cathode and to strip one electron from each atom. But when they drag the resulting ions through the electrolyte toward the anode, they hit the speed limit: Try to rush the ions along by upping the voltage too far and the electrolyte will chemically break down, ending the battery’s charging days forever.

So score one for solid-state batteries: Not only do the best superionic conductors offer a faster ion flow than liquid electrolytes, they also can tolerate higher voltages—all of which translates into EV recharges in under 10 minutes, versus half an hour or more for today’s lithium-ion power packs.

Score another win for solid-state when the ions arrive at the opposite electrode, the anode, during charging. This is where they reunite with their lost electrons, which have taken the long way around through the external circuit. And this is where standard lithium-ion batteries store the newly neutralized lithium atoms in a layer of graphite.

A solid-state battery doesn’t require a graphite cage to store lithium ions at the anode. This shrinks the overall size of the battery and increases its efficiency in uses such as an electric vehicle power pack. The solid-state design also replaces the porous membrane in the middle with a sturdier barrier. The aim is to create a battery that’s more light-weight, safer, stores more energy and makes recharging more convenient than current electric car batteries.

Credit: Knowable Magazine

A solid-state battery doesn’t require a graphite cage to store lithium ions at the anode. This shrinks the overall size of the battery and increases its efficiency in uses such as an electric vehicle power pack. The solid-state design also replaces the porous membrane in the middle with a sturdier barrier. The aim is to create a battery that’s more light-weight, safer, stores more energy and makes recharging more convenient than current electric car batteries. Credit: Knowable Magazine

Graphite anodes were a major commercial advance in 1991—the innovation that finally brought lithium-ion batteries out of the lab and into the marketplace. Graphite is cheap, chemically stable, excellent at conducting electricity, and able to slot those incoming lithium atoms into its hexagonal carbon lattice like so many eggs in an egg carton.

But graphite imposes yet another charging rate limit, since the lattice can handle only so many ions crowding in at once. And it’s heavy, wasting a lot of mass and volume on a simple container, says Louli: “Graphite is an accommodating host, but it does not deliver energy itself—it’s a passive component.” That’s why range-conscious automakers are eager for an alternative to graphite: The more capacity an EV can cram into the same-sized battery pack, and the less weight it has to haul around, the farther it can go on a single charge.

The ultimate alternative would be no cage at all, with no wasted space or weight—just incoming ions condensing into pure lithium metal with every charging cycle. In effect, such a metallic lithium anode would create and then dissolve itself with every charge and discharge cycle—while storing maybe 10 times more electrical energy per gram than a graphite anode.

Such lithium-metal anodes have been demonstrated in the lab since at least the 1970s, and even featured in some early, unsuccessful attempts at commercial lithium batteries. But even after decades of trying, says Louli, no one has been able to make metal anodes work safely and reliably in contact with liquid electrolytes. For one thing, he says, you get these reactions between your liquid electrolyte and the lithium metal that degrade them both, and you end up with a very bad battery lifetime.

And for another, adds Wachsman, “when you are charging a battery with liquids, the lithium going to the anode can plate out non-uniformly and form what are called dendrites.” These jagged spikes of metal can grow in unpredictable ways and pierce the battery’s separator layer: a thin film of electrically insulating polymer that keeps the two electrodes from touching one another. Breaching that barrier could easily cause a short circuit that abruptly ends the device’s useful life, or even sets it on fire.

Dendrite formation

Standard lithium-ion batteries don’t use lithium-metal anodes because there is too high a risk of the metal forming sharp spikes called dendrites. Such dendrites can easily pierce the porous polymer membrane that separates anode from cathode, causing a short-circuit or even sparking a fire. Solid-state batteries replace the membrane with a solid barrier.

Credit: Knowable Magazine

Standard lithium-ion batteries don’t use lithium-metal anodes because there is too high a risk of the metal forming sharp spikes called dendrites. Such dendrites can easily pierce the porous polymer membrane that separates anode from cathode, causing a short-circuit or even sparking a fire. Solid-state batteries replace the membrane with a solid barrier. Credit: Knowable Magazine

Now compare this with a battery that replaces both the liquid electrolyte and the separator with a solid-state layer tough enough to resist those spikes, says Wachsman. “It has the potential of, one, being stable to higher voltages; two, being stable in the presence of lithium metal; and three, preventing those dendrites”—just about everything you need to make those ultra-high-energy-density lithium-metal anodes a practical reality.

“That is what is really attractive about this new battery technology,” says Louli. And now that researchers have found so many superionic solids that could potentially work, he adds, “this is what’s driving the push for it.”

Manufacturing challenges

Increasingly, in fact, the field’s focus has shifted from research to practice, figuring out how to work the same kind of large-scale, low-cost manufacturing magic that’s made the standard lithium-ion architecture so dominant. These new superionic materials haven’t made it easy.

A prime example is the class of sulfides discovered by Japanese researchers in 2011. Not only were these sulfides among the first of the new superionics to be discovered, says Wachsman, they are still the leading contenders for early commercialization.

Major investments have come from startups such as Colorado-based Solid Power and Massachusetts-based Factorial Energy, as well as established battery giants such as China’s CATL and global carmakers such as Toyota and Honda.

And there’s one big reason for the focus on superionic sulfides, says Wachsman: “They’re easy to drop into existing battery cell manufacturing lines,” including the roll-to-roll process. “Companies have got billions of dollars invested in the existing infrastructure, and they don’t want to just displace that with something new.”

Yet these superionic sulfides also have some significant downsides—most notably, their extreme sensitivity to humidity. This complicates the drop-in process, says Oxford’s Pasta. The dry rooms that are currently used to manufacture lithium-ion batteries have a humidity content that is not nearly low enough for sulfide electrolytes, and would have to be retooled. That sensitivity also poses a safety risk if the batteries are ever ruptured in an accident, he says: “If you expose the sulfides to humidity in the air you will generate hydrogen sulfide gas, which is extremely toxic.”

All of which is why startups such as QuantumScape, and the Maryland-based Ion Storage Systems that spun out of Wachsman’s lab in 2015, are looking beyond sulfides to solid-state oxide electrolytes. These materials are essentially ceramics, says Wachsman, made in a high-tech version of pottery class: “You shape the clay, you fire it in a kiln, and it’s a solid.” Except that in this case, it’s a superionic solid that’s all but impervious to humidity, heat, fire, high voltage, and highly reactive lithium metal.

Yet that’s also where the manufacturing challenges start. Superionic or not, for example, ceramics are too brittle for roll-to-roll processing. Once they have been fired and solidified, says Wachsman, “you have to handle them more like a semiconductor wafer, with machines to cut the sheets to size and robotics to move them around.”

Then there’s the “reversible breathing” that plagues oxide and sulfide batteries alike: “With every charging cycle we’re plating and stripping lithium metal at the anode,” explains Louli. “So your entire cell stack will have a thickness increase when you charge and a thickness decrease when you discharge”—a cycle of tiny changes in volume that every solid-state battery design has to allow for.

At QuantumScape, for example, individual battery cells are made by stacking a number of gossamer-thin oxide sheets like a deck of cards, then encasing this stack inside a metal frame that is just thick enough to let the anode layer on each sheet freely expand and contract. The stack and the frame together are then vacuum-sealed into a soft-sided pouch, says Louli, “so if you pack the cells frame to frame, the stacks can breathe and not push on the adjacent cells.”

In a similar way, says Wachsman, all the complications of solid-state batteries have ready solutions—but solutions that inevitably add complexity and cost. Thus the field’s increasingly urgent obsession with manufacturing. Before an auto company will even consider adopting a new EV battery, he says, “it not only has to be better-performing than their current battery, it has to be cheaper.”

And the only way to make complicated technology cheaper is with economies of scale. “That’s why the biggest impediment to solid-state batteries is just the cost of standing up one of these gigafactories to make them in sufficient volume,” says Wachsman. “That’s why there’s probably going to be more solid-state batteries in early adopter-type applications that don’t require that kind of volume.”

Still, says Louli, the long-term demand is definitely there. “What we’re trying to enable by combining the lithium-metal anode with solid-state technology is threefold,” he says: “Higher energy, higher power and improved safety. So for high-performance applications like electric vehicles—or other applications that require high power density, such as drones or even electrified aviation—solid-state batteries are going to be well-suited.”

This story originally appeared in Knowable Magazine.

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Knowable Magazine explores the real-world significance of scholarly work through a journalistic lens.

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OpenAI will stop saving most ChatGPT users’ deleted chats

Moving forward, all of the deleted and temporary chats that were previously saved under the preservation order will continue to be accessible to news plaintiffs, who are looking for examples of outputs infringing their articles or attributing misinformation to their publications.

Additionally, OpenAI will continue monitoring certain ChatGPT accounts, saving deleted and temporary chats of any users whose domains have been flagged by news organizations since they began searching through the data. If news plaintiffs flag additional domains during future meetings with OpenAI, more accounts could be roped in.

Ars could not immediately reach OpenAI or the Times’ legal team for comment.

The dispute with news plaintiffs continues to heat up beyond the battle over user logs, most recently with co-defendant Microsoft pushing to keep its AI companion Copilot out of the litigation.

The stakes remain high for both sides. News organizations have alleged that ChatGPT and other allegedly copyright-infringing tools threaten to replace them in their market while potentially damaging their reputations by attributing false information to them.

OpenAI may be increasingly pressured to settle the lawsuit, and not by news organizations but by insurance companies that won’t provide comprehensive coverage for their AI products with multiple potentially multibillion-dollar lawsuits pending.

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2025 State of AI Report and Predictions

The 2025 State of AI Report is out, with lots of fun slides and a full video presentation. They’ve been consistently solid, providing a kind of outside general view.

I’m skipping over stuff my regular readers already know that doesn’t bear repeating.

Nathan Benaich: Once a “Llama rip-off,” @Alibaba_Qwen now powers 40% of all new fine-tunes on @huggingface. China’s open-weights ecosystem has overtaken Meta’s, with Llama riding off into the sunset…for now.

I highlight this because the ‘for now’ is important to understand, and to note that it’s Qwen not DeepSeek. As in, models come and models go, and especially in the open model world people will switch on you on a dime. Stop worrying about lock-ins and mystical ‘tech stacks.’

Robots now reason too. “Chain-of-Action” planning brings structured thought to the physical world – from AI2’s Molmo-Act to Gemini Robotics. Massive amounts of effort are thrown into the mix, expect lots of progress here…

.@AnthropicAI‘s Model Context Protocol is the new USB-C of AI. A single standard to connect models to tools, already embedded in ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and VS Code, has taken shape. But not without emerging security risks…

I note this next part mostly because it shows the Different Worlds dynamic:

Nathan Benaich: The frontier fight is relentless. @OpenAI still tops most leaderboards, but @GoogleDeepMind‘s stays there longer. Timing releases has become its own science…not least informing financing rounds like clockwork.

They’re citing LMArena and Artificial Analysis. LMArena is dead, sir. Artificial Analysis is fine, if you had to purely go with one number, which you shouldn’t do.

Once more for the people in the back or the White House:

.@deepseek_ai “$5M training run” deep freak was overblown. Since the market realised the fineprint in the R1 paper, that’s led to Jevons paradox on steroids: lower cost per run → more runs → more compute needed, buy more NVIDIA.

… China leads in power infrastructure too, adding >400GW in 2024 vs 41GW for the US. Compute now clearly runs on geopolitics.

Then we get to what I thought was the first clear error:

Now, let’s switch gears into Politics. The US Government is turning capitalist. Golden shares in US Steel, stakes in Intel and MP Materials, and revenue cuts from NVIDIA’s China sales. New-age Industrial policy?

Not capitalist. Socialist.

The term for public ownership of the means of production is socialist.

Unless this meant ‘the US Government centrally maximizing the interests of certain particular capitalists’ or similarly ‘the US Government is turning into one particular capitalist maximizing profits.’ In which case, I’m not the one who said that.

The AI Safety Institute network has collapsed. Washington ditched attending meetings altogether, while the US and UK rebranded “safety” into “security.”

I don’t think this is fair to UK AISI, but yes the White House has essentially told anyone concerned about existential risk or seeking international coordination of any kind to, well, you know.

Moving into Safety: budgets are anemic. All 11 major US safety orgs will spend $133M in 2025…less than frontier labs burn in a day.

I like that this highlights Anthropic’s backpedaling, GDM’s waiting three weeks to give us a model card and xAI’s missing its deadline. It’s pretty grim.

What I disagree with here is the idea that all of that has much to do with the Trump Administration. I don’t want to blame them for things they didn’t cause, and I think they played only a minor role in these kinds of safety failures. The rhetoric being used has shifted to placate them, but the underlying safety work wouldn’t yet be substantially different under Harris unless she’d made a major push to force that issue, well beyond what Biden was on track to do. That decision was up to the labs, and their encounters with reality.

But yes, the AI safety ecosystem is tiny and poor, at risk of being outspent by one rabid industry anti-regulatory super-PAC alone unless we step things up. I have hope that things can be stepped up soon.

Cyber and alignment risks accelerate. Models can now fake alignment under supervision, and exploit code faster than humans fix it.

They then grade their predictions, scoring themselves 5/10, which is tough but fair, and made me confident I can trust their self-grading. As Sean notes they clearly could have ‘gotten away with’ claiming 7/10, although I would have docked them for trying.

Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh: Two of the things I really appreciate is that (a) they make and review predictions each year and (b) unlike some other predictors they grade themselves HARSHLY. Several of these ‘no’s are distinctly borderline, they could have given themselves 7-8/10 and I don’t think I would have held it against them.

  1. A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.

    1. No, although on technicalities, but also national security review hahaha.

  2. An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).

    1. Yes, Formula Bot.

  3. Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.

    1. Yes, Anthropic and the whole $1.5 billion fiasco.

  4. Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.

    1. No, they say, but you could definitely make a case here.

  5. An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.

    1. Yes, r1 did this, although as stated this was an easy call.

  6. Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.

    1. Yes, again relatively easy call on this time frame.

  7. Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.

    1. No, investment grew from $1.4b to $3b. I half-kid that spiritually this is kind of counts as a win in AI, it only doubled, that’s kind of a trail off?

    2. But no, seriously, the robots are coming.

  8. Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.

    1. No, Apple Intelligence and their research department flopped. On device AI is definitely growing anyway.

  9. A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.

    1. Yes, AI Scientist-v2 at an ICLR workshop.

  10. A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.

    1. Nope. This continues to be a big area of disappointment. Not only did nothing break out, there wasn’t even anything halfway decent.

Here are their predictions for 2026. These are aggressive, GPT-5-Pro thinks their expected score is only 3.1 correct. If they can hit 5/10 again I think they get kudos, and if they get 7/10 they did great.

I made my probability assessments before creating Manifold markets, to avoid anchoring, and will then alter my assessment based on early trading.

I felt comfortable creating those markets because I have confidence both that they will grade themselves accurately, and that LLMs will be strong enough in a year to resolve these questions reasonably. So my resolution rule was, their self-assessment wins, and if they don’t provide one I’ll feed the exact wording into Anthropic’s strongest model – ideally this should probably be best 2 out of 3 of Google, OpenAI and Anthropic, but simplicity is good.

  1. A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

    1. Total advertising spending in America in 2025 was ~$420 billion.

    2. I think this is ambitious, but variance here is really high and the correlation between the two numbers is large.

    3. GPT-5-Pro says 18%, Sonnet says 8%, I think it’s more plausible than that. Maybe 25%?

    4. Manifold says 23% so that seems good.

  2. A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration.

    1. GPT-5-Pro says 22%, Sonnet says 25%.

    2. I don’t see it, if this means ‘release your frontier model as an open model.’ Who? I would only count at most five labs as major, and Meta (who is pushing it in terms of counting) is already open. The only realistic option here is xAI.

    3. That goes double if you include the conditional ‘to win over the current US administration.’ There’s a lot of other considerations in such a move.

    4. Thus, I’d sell this down to 15%, but it’s hard to be too confident about Elon?

    5. Manifold agreed with the AIs at 25% but tends to be too high in such spots, so I still would be a seller.

  3. Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

    1. Define ‘meaningful’ and ‘end to end’ in various ways? Always tricky.

    2. I’m actually optimistic, if we’re not going to be sticklers on details.

    3. GPT-5-Pro says 36%, Sonnet is deeply skeptical and says 15%. If I knew we had a reasonable threshold for ‘meaningful’ and we could get it turned around, I’d be on the optimistic end, but I think Sonnet is right that if you count the paper the timeline here is pretty brutal. So I’m going to go with 35%.

    4. Manifold is optimistic and says 60% with active trading, with Nathan Metzger noting the issue of defining a meaningful discovery and Brian Holtz noting the issue of how much assistance is allowed. I’m willing to interpret this as an optimistic take on both feasibility and what would count and go to 50%.

  4. A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security.

    1. It would take really a lot to get this to trigger. Like, really a lot.

    2. There’s even an out that if something else triggers a debate first, this didn’t happen.

    3. GPT-5-Pro said 25%, Sonnet said 12% and I’m with Sonnet.

    4. Manifold says 18%, down the middle. I’m still with Sonnet.

  5. A real-time generative video game becomes the year’s most-watched title on Twitch.

    1. I’ll go ahead and take the no here. Too soon. Generative games are not as interesting as people think, and they’re doubling down on the 2024 mistake.

    2. GPT-5-Pro has this at 14%, Sonnet says 3%. I think Sonnet is a bit overconfident, let’s say 5%, but yeah, this has to overcome existing behemoths even if you make something great. Not gonna happen.

    3. Manifold agrees this is the long shot at 7%, which is basically their version of ‘not gonna happen’ given how the math works for long shots.

  6. “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI.

    1. I doubt they’ll call it that, but certainly some nations will opt out of this ‘race.’

    2. GPT-5-Pro said 25%, Sonnet says 20%. I agree if this is a meaningful ‘neutrality’ in the sense of neutral between China and America on top of not rolling one’s own, but much higher if it simply means that nations opt out of building their own and rely on a frontier lab or a fine tune of an existing open model. And indeed I think this opt out would be wise for many, perhaps most.

    3. Manifold says 29%. Given the ambiguity issues, that’s within reasonable range.

  7. A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash.

    1. GPT-5-Pro says 68%, Sonnet says 55%. I’d be a buyer there, normally a parlay is a rough prediction but there would almost certainly be backlash conditional on this happening. A short film counts? I’m at more like 80%.

    2. Manifold is only at 67%. That seems low to me, but I can moderate to 75%.

  8. A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).

    1. I’d bet big against a Chinese lab actually having the best model at any point in 2026, but benchmarks are not leaderboards.

    2. I’d be very surprised if this happened on Artificial Analysis. Their evaluation suite is reasonably robust.

    3. I’d be less surprised if this happened on LM Arena, since it is rather hackable, if one of the major Chinese labs actively wanted to do this there’s a decent chance that they could, the way Meta hacked through their model for a bit.

    4. I still think this is an underdog. GPT-5-Pro said 74%, Sonnet says 60% and is focusing on Arena as the target. It only has to happen briefly. I think the models are too optimistic here, but I’ll give them maybe 55% because as worded this includes potential other leaderboards too.

    5. Manifold says 34%, and on reflection yeah I was being a coward and moderating my instincts too much, that’s more like it. I’d probably buy there small because the resolution criteria is relatively generous, fair 40%.

  9. Datacenter NIMBYism takes the US by storm and sways certain midterm/gubernatorial elections in 2026.

    1. Threshold is always tricky with such questions. If we’re talking at least two races for governor, house or senate, I think this is not that likely to happen, nor is it likely to be very high on the list of issues in general. I’m on no.

    2. GPT-5-Pro says 23%, Sonnet says 18%. I’d probably say more like 15%. If you expand this so ‘a bunch of local races around potential cites’ counts including for ‘take by storm’ then I could go higher.

    3. Manifold is optimistic at 41%. I’ll adjust to 25% on that, they might especially have a better sense of what would count, but this particular AI issue ‘taking the US by storm’ that often seems like a stretch.

  10. Trump issues an unconstitutional executive order to ban state AI legislation.

    1. I love that they explicitly say it will be unconstitutional.

    2. I do agree that if he did it, it would be unconstitutional, although of course it will be 2026 so it’s possible he can Just Do Things and SCOTUS will shrug.

    3. Both GPT-5-Pro and Sonnet say 35% here. That feels high but I can definitely see this happening, I agree with Sonnet that it is ‘on brand.’ 25%?

    4. Manifold is at 19%. Okay, sure, I’ll accept that and creep fair down a bit.

Indeed, despite nothing ever happening, do many things come to pass. It would be cool to have my own bold predictions for 2026, but I think the baseline scenario is very much a boring ‘incremental improvements, more of the same with some surprising new capabilities, people who notice see big improvements but those who want to dismiss can still dismiss, the current top labs are still the top labs, a lot more impact than the economists think but nothing dramatic yet, safety and alignment look like they are getting better and for short term purposes they are, and investment is rising, but not in ways that give me faith that we’re making Actual Progress on hard problems.’

I do think we should expect at least one major vibe shift. Every time vibes shift, it becomes easy to think there won’t soon be another vibe shift. There is always another vibe shift, it is so over and then we are so back, until AGI arrives and perhaps then it really is over whether or not we are also so back. Two shifts is more likely than zero. Sometimes the shifts are for good reasons, usually it is not. The current ‘powers that be’ are unlikely to be the ones in place, with the same perspectives, at the end of 2026.

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Putin OKs plan to turn Russian spacecraft into flying billboards

These are tough times for Russia’s civilian space program. In the last few years, Russia has cut back on the number of Soyuz crew missions it is sending to the International Space Station, and a replacement for the nearly 60-year-old Soyuz spacecraft remains elusive.

While the United States and China are launching more space missions than ever before, Russia’s once-dominant launch cadence is on a downhill slide.

Russia’s access to global markets dried up after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The fallout from the invasion killed several key space partnership between Russia and Europe. Russia’s capacity to do new things in space seems to be focused on military programs like anti-satellite weapons.

The Roscosmos State Corporation for Space Activities, Russia’s official space agency, may have a plan to offset the decline. Late last month, Putin approved changes to federal laws governing advertising and space activities to “allow for the placement of advertising on spacecraft,” Roscosmos posted on its official Telegram account.

We’ve seen this before

The Russian State Duma, dominated by Putin loyalists, previously approved the amendments.

“According to the amendments, Roscosmos has been granted the right, effective January 1, 2026, to place advertising on space objects owned by both the State Corporation itself and federally,” Roscosmos said. “The amendments will create a mechanism for attracting private investment in Russian space exploration and reduce the burden on the state budget.”

The law requires that advertising symbols not affect spacecraft safety. The Russian government said it will establish a fee structure for advertising on federally owned space objects.

Roscosmos didn’t say this, but advertisers eligible for the offer will presumably be limited to Russia and its allies. Any ads from the West would likely violate sanctions.

Rocket-makers have routinely applied decals, stickers, and special paint jobs to their vehicles. This is a particularly popular practice in Russia. Usually, these logos represent customers and suppliers. Sometimes they honor special occasions, like the 60th anniversary of the first human spaceflight mission by Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin and the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.

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